Computational mechanics of molecular systems:quantifying high-dimensional dynamics by distribution of Poincaré recurrence times

A framework that connects computational mechanics and molecular dynamics has been developed and described. As the key parts of the framework, the problem of symbolising molecular trajectory and the associated interrelation between microscopic phase space variables and macroscopic observables of the molecular system are considered. Following Shalizi and Moore, it is shown that causal states, the constituent parts of the main construct of computational mechanics, the e-machine, define areas of the phase space that are optimal in the sense of transferring information from the micro-variables to the macro-observables. We have demonstrated that, based on the decay of their Poincare´ return times, these areas can be divided into two classes that characterise the separation of the phase space into resonant and chaotic areas. The first class is characterised by predominantly short time returns, typical to quasi-periodic or periodic trajectories. This class includes a countable number of areas corresponding to resonances. The second class includes trajectories with chaotic behaviour characterised by the exponential decay of return times in accordance with the Poincare´ theorem.

Type 2 diabetes:assessing the relative risks and benefits of glucose-lowering medications

The selection of appropriate pharmacologic therapy for any disease requires a careful assessment of benefit and risk. In the case of type 2 diabetes, this decision typically balances the benefits accrued from improved glycemic control with the risks inherent in glucose-lowering medications. This review is intended to assist therapeutic decision-making by carefully assessing the potential benefit from improved metabolic control relative to the potential risks of a wide array of currently prescribed glucose-lowering agents. Wherever possible, risks and benefits have been expressed in terms of absolute rates (events per 1000 patient-years) to facilitate cross-study comparisons. The review incorporates data from new studies (Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation, Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes, and the Veterans Affairs Diabetes Trial), as well as safety issues associated with newer glucose-lowering medications. © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Workers' understanding of chemical risks: electroplating case study

BACKGROUND: There is limited research concerning how small companies in particular, respond to health and safety messages. AIMS: To understand individuals' knowledge and beliefs about chemical risks and to compare these with those of experts. METHODS: The use of chromic acid in particular, and also other chemicals associated with chrome plating were studied. All chromium plating firms were based in the West Midlands. The methodology involved initial face to face interviews (n = 21) with chromium platers, structured questionnaires (n = 84) to test the prevalence of beliefs identified in the interviews, an expert questionnaire, and a workshop to discuss findings. The responses of platers were compared with those of occupational health and safety experts. RESULTS: Although chromium platers appeared to understand the short term adverse effects of the chemicals to which they are exposed, their understanding of long term, or chronic effects appeared to be incomplete. They had good knowledge of acute effects based primarily on experience. Platers were aware of the hazardous nature of the chemicals with which they work, but did not draw distinction between the terms "hazards" and "risks". They had difficulties articulating the effects of the chemicals and how exposure might occur; although it is inappropriate to equate this with lack of knowledge. A significant minority of platers displayed deficiencies in understanding key technical terms used in Safety Data Sheets. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a method which can be used to gain some understanding of workers' knowledge and beliefs about risks that they are exposed to in the workplace. The study also identifies gaps between the platers' knowledge and beliefs and those of experts. New risk information needs to be designed which addresses the information needs of platers using language that they understand.

Social and scientific issues in the acceptibility of radiation risks

Ionising radiation hazards are perhaps the most documented and regulated occupational and environmental hazard. In the radiological protection field a single expert advisory organisation has had an unusually large influence on the international standard setting process. This is the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). Two common, and opposing views, exist over the formulation of protection recommendations by the ICRP. The first, and most widely accepted, is that its recommendations are scientifically determined. The second view, is that its recommendations are politically or socially determined. Neither of these analyses adequately accounts for the complex process in which protection recommendations are formulated. A third view, provided by studies of the origins of scientific controversy, suggests that both science and social factors are important in the assessment and limitation of risk. The aim of this thesis is not simply to examine the origin of controversy. Issues of equal, if not more, importance are the resolution of controversy, the formation of consensus and the maintenance of expert authority and influence. These issues form the central focus of this thesis. The aim is to assess the process through which the ICRP formulates its radiological protection recommendations and comment on the extent that these are influenced by the affiliations of its members. This thesis concludes that the ICRP's recommendations have been shaped by a complex relationship of scientific and social considerations, in which a socio-technical commitment to nuclear energy has played a key role. The Commission has responded to new scientific data by making complex changes to its philosophy and methods of describing risk. Where reductions in numerical limits have been applied they have been accompanied by practical measures designed to limit the impact of the change and provide continuity with the old limits and flexibility in the application of the new recommendations.

Mathematical modelling of patient risks in a hospital environment, using multiple regression analysis

The aim of this research work was primarily to examine the relevance of patient parameters, ward structures, procedures and practices, in respect of the potential hazards of wound cross-infection and nasal colonisation with multiple resistant strains of Staphylococcus aureus, which it is thought might provide a useful indication of a patient's general susceptibility to wound infection. Information from a large cross-sectional survey involving 12,000 patients from some 41 hospitals and 375 wards was collected over a five-year period from 1967-72, and its validity checked before any subsequent analysis was carried out. Many environmental factors and procedures which had previously been thought (but never conclusively proved) to have an influence on wound infection or nasal colonisation rates, were assessed, and subsequently dismissed as not being significant, provided that the standard of the current range of practices and procedures is maintained and not allowed to deteriorate. Retrospective analysis revealed that the probability of wound infection was influenced by the patient's age, duration of pre-operative hospitalisation, sex, type of wound, presence and type of drain, number of patients in ward, and other special risk factors, whilst nasal colonisation was found to be influenced by the patient's age, total duration of hospitalisation, sex, antibiotics, proportion of occupied beds in the ward, average distance between bed centres and special risk factors. A multi-variate regression analysis technique was used to develop statistical models, consisting of variable patient and environmental factors which were found to have a significant influence on the risks pertaining to wound infection and nasal colonisation. A relationship between wound infection and nasal colonisation was then established and this led to the development of a more advanced model for predicting wound infections, taking advantage of the additional knowledge of the patient's state of nasal colonisation prior to operation.

Accountability, organisational learning and risks to patient safety in England: conflict or compromise?

This article examines the current risk regulation regime, within the English National Health Service (NHS), by investigating the two, sometimes conflicting, approaches to risk embodied within the field of policies towards patient safety. The first approach focuses on promoting accountability and is built on legal principles surrounding negligence and competence. The second approach focuses on promoting learning from previous mistakes and near-misses, and is built on the development of a ‘safety culture’. Previous work has drawn attention to problems associated with risk-based regulation when faced with the dual imperatives of accountability and organisational learning. The article develops this by considering whether the NHS patient safety regime demonstrates the coexistence of two different risk regulation regimes, or merely one regime with contradictory elements. It uses the heuristic device of ‘institutional logics’ to examine the coexistence of and interrelationship between ‘organisational learning’ and ‘accountability’ logics driving risk regulation in health care.

Risks and benefits of selective (re)presentation of interviewees' talk:some insights from discourse analysis

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the quality of evidence collected during interview. Current UK national guidance on the interviewing of victims and witnesses recommends a phased approach, allowing the interviewee to deliver their free report before any questioning takes place, and stipulating that during this free report the interviewee should not be interrupted. Interviewers, therefore, often find it necessary during questioning to reactivate parts of the interviewee's free report for further elaboration. Design/methodology/approach: The first section of this paper draws on a collection of police interviews with women reporting rape, and discusses one method by which this is achieved - the indirect quotation of the interviewee by the interviewer - exploring the potential implications for the quality of evidence collected during this type of interview. The second section of the paper draws on the same data set and concerns itself with a particular method by which information provided by an interviewee has its meaning "fixed" by the interviewer. Findings: It is found that "formulating" is a recurrent practice arising from the need to clarify elements of the account for the benefit of what is termed the "overhearing audience" - in this context, the police scribe, CPS, and potentially the Court. Since the means by which this "fixing" is achieved necessarily involves the foregrounding of elements of the account deemed to be particularly salient at the expense of other elements which may be entirely deleted, formulations are rarely entirely neutral. Their production, therefore, has the potential to exert undue interviewer influence over the negotiated "final version" of interviewees' accounts. Originality/value: The paper highlights the fact that accurate re-presentations of interviewees' accounts are a crucial tool in ensuring smooth progression of interviews and that re-stated speech and formulation often have implications for the quality of evidence collected during significant witness interviews. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Perceived risks in cross-border transactions in agri-food chains

Nowadays, agri-food chains are more global than ever and are characterized by increased imports and exports and global sourcing of products, resulting in increased cross-border transaction risks. The objective of this paper is to identify the typical risks regarding agri-food supply chains involved in cross-border transactions and to assess their importance as perceived by agri-food managers. The analysis takes into consideration four different agrifood value chains (meat, grain, olive oil, fresh vegetables and fruits). Following an explorative approach and a qualitative technique, a series of face to face in-depth interviews was conducted. Results indicate that risk perception may be quite different across countries, value chains, tiers of the supply chain, as well as across respondents. The prevalence of Market dynamics risks was pointed out in most of the interviews, yielding the impression that many operators identify the market as the most difficult environment. Differences in risk perception between fresh produce (fruit/vegetables and meat) and processed food chains (grain and olive oil) are probably interrelated to the different degree of integration within these supply chains, the different level of standardization achieved and the different causes of risks that are inherent to the nature of the product.

Innovation and policy networks:the social shaping of BSE-related technologies and the inadequate assessmant of related risks

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Does cardiovascular therapy affect the onset and recurrence of preretinal and vitreous haemorrhage in diabetic eye disease?

Aims To review the role of cardiovascular disease and therapy in the onset and recurrence of preretinal/vitreous haemorrhage in diabetic patients. Methods Retrospective case note analysis of diabetic patients with vitreous haemorrhage from the Diabetic Eye Clinic at Birmingham Heartlands Hospital. Results In total, 54 patients (mean age 57.1, 37 males, 20 type I vs34 type II diabetic patients) were included. The mean (SD) duration of diagnosed diabetes at first vitreous haemorrhage was significantly longer, 21.9 (7.6) years for type I and 14.8 (9.3) years for type II diabetic patients (P<0.01, unpaired t-test, two-tailed). Aspirin administration was not associated with a significantly later onset of vitreous haemorrhage. Four episodes were associated with ACE-inhibitor cough. There was a trend towards HMGCoA reductase inhibitor (statin) use being associated with a delayed onset of vitreous haemorrhage: 21.4 years until vitreous haemorrhage (treatment group) vs 16.2 years (nontreatment group) (P=0.09, two-tailed, unpaired t-test, not statistically significant). During follow-up 56 recurrences occurred, making a total of 110 episodes of vitreous haemorrhage in 79 eyes of 54 patients. The mean (range) follow-up post haemorrhage was 1067 (77–3842) days, with an average of 1.02 recurrences. Age, gender, diabetes type (I or II) or control, presence of hypertension or hypercholesterolaemia, and macrovascular complications were not associated with a significant effect on the 1-year recurrence rate. Aspirin (and other antiplatelet or anticoagulant agents) and ACE- inhibitors appeared to neither increase nor decrease the 1-year recurrence rate. However, statin use was significantly associated with a reduction in recurrence (Fisher exact P<0.05; two-tailed) with an odds ratio (95% CI) of 0.25 (0.1–0.95). Conclusion In this retrospective analysis, the onset of preretinal/vitreous haemorrhage was not found to be accelerated by gender, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, evidence of macrovascular disease, or HbA1c. Neither aspirin nor ACE-inhibitor administration accelerated the onset or recurrence of first vitreous haemorrhage. Statins may have a protective role, both delaying and reducing the recurrence of haemorrhage.

Outsourcing:assessing the risks and benefits for organisations, sectors and nations

Purpose - This research aims to assess the risks and benefits of outsourcing for organisations, sectors and nations. The literature on outsourcing contains little evidence of research on holistic issues of its impact at systems levels beyond the firm, notably sectors and nations. Design/methodology/approach - A Delphi study with senior strategists from private and public sectors captured perspectives and specific observations on benefits and risks of outsourcing. Emergent issues on outsourcing policy, strategy and decision-making processes were synthesised into a framework for analysing factors associated with outsourcing. Findings - The findings suggest that a more holistic view of outsourcing is needed, linking local, organisational issues with sector and national level actions and outcomes. In this way, aggregate risks and benefits can be assessed at different systems levels. Research limitations/implications - Future research might address the motivations for outsourcing; currently there is little research evidence to assess whether outsourcing is a mechanism for failing to solve internal problems, and moving responsibility and risk out of the firm. Additionally most outsourcing research to date has concentrated on an activity either being "in" or "out"; there is little research exploring the circumstances in which mixed models might be appropriate. Practical implications - The framework provides an aid to research and an aide memoire for managers considering outsourcing. Originality/value - This paper contributes to knowledge on understanding of outsourcing at different systems levels, particularly highlighting the implications of outsourcing for sectors and nations. Previously most research has focused at the level of the firm or dyadic relationship. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

An artificial neural network stratifies the risks of reintervention and mortality after endovascular aneurysm repair:a retrospective observational study

Background Lifelong surveillance after endovascular repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) is considered mandatory to detect potentially life-threatening endograft complications. A minority of patients require reintervention but cannot be predictively identified by existing methods. This study aimed to improve the prediction of endograft complications and mortality, through the application of machine-learning techniques. Methods Patients undergoing EVAR at 2 centres were studied from 2004-2010. Pre-operative aneurysm morphology was quantified and endograft complications were recorded up to 5 years following surgery. An artificial neural networks (ANN) approach was used to predict whether patients would be at low- or high-risk of endograft complications (aortic/limb) or mortality. Centre 1 data were used for training and centre 2 data for validation. ANN performance was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis to compare the incidence of aortic complications, limb complications, and mortality; in patients predicted to be low-risk, versus those predicted to be high-risk. Results 761 patients aged 75 +/- 7 years underwent EVAR. Mean follow-up was 36+/- 20 months. An ANN was created from morphological features including angulation/length/areas/diameters/ volume/tortuosity of the aneurysm neck/sac/iliac segments. ANN models predicted endograft complications and mortality with excellent discrimination between a low-risk and high-risk group. In external validation, the 5-year rates of freedom from aortic complications, limb complications and mortality were 95.9% vs 67.9%; 99.3% vs 92.0%; and 87.9% vs 79.3% respectively (p0.001) Conclusion This study presents ANN models that stratify the 5-year risk of endograft complications or mortality using routinely available pre-operative data.

Internet Social Networks – Benefits and Risks

Доклад, поместен в сборника на Националната конференция "Образованието в информационното общество", Пловдив, май, 2012 г.