Tropical and extratropical responses of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation to a sustained weakening of the MOC

The tropospheric response to a forced shutdown of the North Atlantic Ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is investigated in a coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM [the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3)]. The strength of the boreal winter North Atlantic storm track is significantly increased and penetrates much farther into western Europe. The changes in the storm track are shown to be consistent with the changes in near-surface baroclinicity, which can be linked to changes in surface temperature gradients near regions of sea ice formation and in the open ocean. Changes in the SST of the tropical Atlantic are linked to a strengthening of the subtropical jet to the north, which, combined with the enhanced storm track, leads to a pronounced split in the jet structure over Europe. EOF analysis and stationary box indices methods are used to analyze changes to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). There is no consistent signal of a change in the variability of the NAO, and while the changes in the mean flow project onto the positive NAO phase, they are significantly different from it. However, there is a clear eastward shift of the NAO pattern in the shutdown run, and this potentially has implications for ocean circulation and for the interpretation of proxy paleoclimate records.

Tracer correlations in the northern high latitude lowermost stratosphere: Influence of cross‐tropopause mass exchange

We present an analysis of trace gas correlations in the lowermost stratosphere. In‐situ aircraft measurements of CO, N2O, NOy and O3, obtained during the STREAM 1997 winter campaign, have been used to investigate the role of cross‐tropopause mass exchange on tracer‐tracer relations. At altitudes several kilometers above the local tropopause, undisturbed stratospheric air was found with NOy/NOy * ratios close to unity, NOy/O3 about 0.003–0.006 and CO mixing ratios as low as 20 ppbv (NOy * is a proxy for total reactive nitrogen derived from NOy–N2O relations measured in the stratosphere). Mixing of tropospheric air into the lowermost stratosphere has been identified by enhanced ratios of NOy/NOy * and NOy/O3, and from scatter plots of CO versus O3. The enhanced NOy/O3 ratio in the lowermost stratospheric mixing zone points to a reduced efficiency of O3 formation from aircraft NOx emissions.

Past, present and future precipitation in the Middle East: insights from models and observations

Anthropogenic changes in precipitation pose a serious threat to society—particularly in regions such as the Middle East that already face serious water shortages. However, climate model projections of regional precipitation remain highly uncertain. Moreover, standard resolution climate models have particular difficulty representing precipitation in the Middle East, which is modulated by complex topography, inland water bodies and proximity to the Mediterranean Sea. Here we compare precipitation changes over the twenty-first century against both millennial variability during the Holocene and interannual variability in the present day. In order to assess the climate model and to make consistent comparisons, this study uses new regional climate model simulations of the past, present and future in conjunction with proxy and historical observations. We show that the pattern of precipitation change within Europe and the Middle East projected by the end of the twenty-first century has some similarities to that which occurred during the Holocene. In both cases, a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track and a weakening of the Mediterranean storm track appear to cause decreased winter rainfall in southern Europe and the Middle East and increased rainfall further north. In contrast, on an interannual time scale, anomalously dry seasons in the Middle East are associated with a strengthening and focusing of the storm track in the north Mediterranean and hence wet conditions throughout southern Europe.

The effect of a large freshwater perturbation on the glacial north Atlantic Ocean using a coupled general circulation model

The commonly held view of the conditions in the North Atlantic at the last glacial maximum, based on the interpretation of proxy records, is of large-scale cooling compared to today, limited deep convection, and extensive sea ice, all associated with a southward displaced and weakened overturning thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic. Not all studies support that view; in particular, the "strength of the overturning circulation" is contentious and is a quantity that is difficult to determine even for the present day. Quasi-equilibrium simulations with coupled climate models forced by glacial boundary conditions have produced differing results, as have inferences made from proxy records. Most studies suggest the weaker circulation, some suggest little or no change, and a few suggest a stronger circulation. Here results are presented from a three-dimensional climate model, the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), of the coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea ice system suggesting, in a qualitative sense, that these diverging views could all have occurred at different times during the last glacial period, with different modes existing at different times. One mode might have been characterized by an active THC associated with moderate temperatures in the North Atlantic and a modest expanse of sea ice. The other mode, perhaps forced by large inputs of meltwater from the continental ice sheets into the northern North Atlantic, might have been characterized by a sluggish THC associated with very cold conditions around the North Atlantic and a large areal cover of sea ice. The authors' model simulation of such a mode, forced by a large input of freshwater, bears several of the characteristics of the Climate: Long-range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) Project's reconstruction of glacial sea surface temperature and sea ice extent.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Urban smoke concentrations at Kew, London, 1898-2004

Historical smoke concentrations at monthly resolution for the early twentieth century are found for Kew Observatory, London, using the atmospheric electricity proxy technique. Smoke particles modify the electrical properties of urban air: an increase in smoke concentration reduces air's electrical conductivity and increases the Potential Gradient (PG). Calibrated PG data are available from Kew since 1898, and air conductivity was measured routinely between 1909 and 1979 using the technique developed by C.T.R. Wilson. Automated smoke observations at the same site overlap with the atmospheric electrical measurements from 1921, providing an absolute calibration to smoke concentration. This shows that the late nineteenth century winter smoke concentrations at Kew were approximately 100 times greater than contemporary winter smoke concentrations. Following smoke emission regulations reducing the smoke concentration, the electrical parameters of the urban air did not change dramatically. This is suggested to be due to a composition change, with an increase in the abundance of small aerosol compensating for the decrease in smoke. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time series analysis of lava flux

We have applied time series analytical techniques to the flux of lava from an extrusive eruption. Tilt data acting as a proxy for flux are used in a case study of the May–August 1997 period of the eruption at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We justify the use of such a proxy by simple calibratory arguments. Three techniques of time series analysis are employed: spectral, spectrogram and wavelet methods. In addition to the well-known ~9-hour periodicity shown by these data, a previously unknown periodic flux variability is revealed by the wavelet analysis as a 3-day cycle of frequency modulation during June–July 1997, though the physical mechanism responsible is not clear. Such time series analysis has potential for other lava flux proxies at other types of volcanoes.

Modelling the lava dome extruded at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, August 2005–May 2006. Part II: Rockfall activity and talus deformation

During many lava dome-forming eruptions, persistent rockfalls and the concurrent development of a substantial talus apron around the foot of the dome are important aspects of the observed activity. An improved understanding of internal dome structure, including the shape and internal boundaries of the talus apron, is critical for determining when a lava dome is poised for a major collapse and how this collapse might ensue. We consider a period of lava dome growth at the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, from August 2005 to May 2006, during which a 100 × 106 m3 lava dome developed that culminated in a major dome-collapse event on 20 May 2006. We use an axi-symmetrical Finite Element Method model to simulate the growth and evolution of the lava dome, including the development of the talus apron. We first test the generic behaviour of this continuum model, which has core lava and carapace/talus components. Our model describes the generation rate of talus, including its spatial and temporal variation, as well as its post-generation deformation, which is important for an improved understanding of the internal configuration and structure of the dome. We then use our model to simulate the 2005 to 2006 Soufrière Hills dome growth using measured dome volumes and extrusion rates to drive the model and generate the evolving configuration of the dome core and carapace/talus domains. The evolution of the model is compared with the observed rockfall seismicity using event counts and seismic energy parameters, which are used here as a measure of rockfall intensity and hence a first-order proxy for volumes. The range of model-derived volume increments of talus aggraded to the talus slope per recorded rockfall event, approximately 3 × 103–13 × 103 m3 per rockfall, is high with respect to estimates based on observed events. From this, it is inferred that some of the volumetric growth of the talus apron (perhaps up to 60–70%) might have occurred in the form of aseismic deformation of the talus, forced by an internal, laterally spreading core. Talus apron growth by this mechanism has not previously been identified, and this suggests that the core, hosting hot gas-rich lava, could have a greater lateral extent than previously considered.

Decadal-scale rainfall variability in Ethiopia recorded in an annually laminated, Holocene-age, stalagmite

An annually laminated, uranium-series dated, Holocene stalagmite from southeast Ethiopia has been analysed for growth rate and δ13C and δ18O variations at annual to biennial resolution, in order to provide the first long duration proxy record of decadal-scale rainfall variability in this climatically sensitive region. Our study site (10°N) is climatically influenced by both summer (June—August) and spring (March—May) rainfall caused by the annual movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and modulated by large-scale anomalies in the atmospheric circulation and in ocean temperatures. Here we show that stalagmite growth, episodic throughout the last 7800 years, demonstrates decadal-scale (8—25 yr) variability in both growth rate and δ 18O. A hydrological model was employed and indicates that this decadal variability is due to variations in the relative amounts of rainfall in the two rain seasons. Our record, unique in its combination of length (a total of ~1000 years), annual chronology and high resolution δ18O, shows for the first time that such decadal-scale variability in rainfall in this region has occurred through the Holocene, which implies persistent decadal-scale variability for the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic driving factors.

The assessment of benchmarks executed on bare-metal and using para-virtualization

A full assessment of para-­virtualization is important, because without knowledge about the various overheads, users can not understand whether using virtualization is a good idea or not. In this paper we are very interested in assessing the overheads of running various benchmarks on bare-­‐metal, as well as on para-­‐virtualization. The idea is to see what the overheads of para-­‐ virtualization are, as well as looking at the overheads of turning on monitoring and logging. The knowledge from assessing various benchmarks on these different systems will help a range of users understand the use of virtualization systems. In this paper we assess the overheads of using Xen, VMware, KVM and Citrix, see Table 1. These different virtualization systems are used extensively by cloud-­‐users. We are using various Netlib1 benchmarks, which have been developed by the University of Tennessee at Knoxville (UTK), and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). In order to assess these virtualization systems, we run the benchmarks on bare-­‐metal, then on the para-­‐virtualization, and finally we turn on monitoring and logging. The later is important as users are interested in Service Level Agreements (SLAs) used by the Cloud providers, and the use of logging is a means of assessing the services bought and used from commercial providers. In this paper we assess the virtualization systems on three different systems. We use the Thamesblue supercomputer, the Hactar cluster and IBM JS20 blade server (see Table 2), which are all servers available at the University of Reading. A functional virtualization system is multi-­‐layered and is driven by the privileged components. Virtualization systems can host multiple guest operating systems, which run on its own domain, and the system schedules virtual CPUs and memory within each Virtual Machines (VM) to make the best use of the available resources. The guest-­‐operating system schedules each application accordingly. You can deploy virtualization as full virtualization or para-­‐virtualization. Full virtualization provides a total abstraction of the underlying physical system and creates a new virtual system, where the guest operating systems can run. No modifications are needed in the guest OS or application, e.g. the guest OS or application is not aware of the virtualized environment and runs normally. Para-­‐virualization requires user modification of the guest operating systems, which runs on the virtual machines, e.g. these guest operating systems are aware that they are running on a virtual machine, and provide near-­‐native performance. You can deploy both para-­‐virtualization and full virtualization across various virtualized systems. Para-­‐virtualization is an OS-­‐assisted virtualization; where some modifications are made in the guest operating system to enable better performance. In this kind of virtualization, the guest operating system is aware of the fact that it is running on the virtualized hardware and not on the bare hardware. In para-­‐virtualization, the device drivers in the guest operating system coordinate the device drivers of host operating system and reduce the performance overheads. The use of para-­‐virtualization [0] is intended to avoid the bottleneck associated with slow hardware interrupts that exist when full virtualization is employed. It has revealed [0] that para-­‐ virtualization does not impose significant performance overhead in high performance computing, and this in turn this has implications for the use of cloud computing for hosting HPC applications. The “apparent” improvement in virtualization has led us to formulate the hypothesis that certain classes of HPC applications should be able to execute in a cloud environment, with minimal performance degradation. In order to support this hypothesis, first it is necessary to define exactly what is meant by a “class” of application, and secondly it will be necessary to observe application performance, both within a virtual machine and when executing on bare hardware. A further potential complication is associated with the need for Cloud service providers to support Service Level Agreements (SLA), so that system utilisation can be audited.

Pliocene seasonality across the North Atlantic inferred from cheilostome bryozoans

Previous studies have shown an inverse correlation between zooid size in cheilostome bryozoans and ambient water temperature. This relationship underlies the MART technique which uses intracolonial variation in zooid size to predict mean annual range in temperature experienced by bryozoan colonies during their life. Here we apply the MART technique to study Early and Mid Pliocene bryozoans from Central America (Panama, Costa Rica), the USA (Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia) and the UK (Suffolk) to reconstruct palaeoseasonality across a range of latitudes for the North Atlantic during the Pliocene Epoch. Compared to the present-day, our analyses suggest greater seasonality (ca 4.5 degrees C) in the southern Caribbean at the time of Cayo Agua Formation deposition (ca 4.25 Ma), in keeping with inferred upwelling prior to the closure of the isthmian barrier at 2.7 Ma. Bryozoans also indicate seasonal upwelling on the Gulf Coast of Florida in a similar manner to the present-day. Because upwelling can be highly localised and prone to spatial and temporal variation in the Gulf of Mexico today, it contributes little to a broad understanding of Pliocene North Atlantic waters. However, MART estimates for the coastal plain region indicate a general reduction in the annual range in temperature relative to the present, suggesting that the colder surface waters that today reach south to Cape Hatteras had less influence in Early to Mid Pliocene times. These results, along with evidence from other proxies, strongly support reduced seasonality and warmer conditions along the eastern seaboard of the USA in the Early to Mid Pliocene. Finally, the MART estimates amongst Coralline Crag localities provide evidence for an increased annual range in temperature in the southern North Sea than at present. Our study shows that bryozoan MART estimates provide a powerful, independent proxy for palaeoseasonality and is the first to demonstrate that the MART technique can be applied to infer palaeoclimates across a wide range of latitudes focusing on a variety of geological formations and geographical regions. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Benchmarking consensus model quality assessment for protein fold recognition

Background: Selecting the highest quality 3D model of a protein structure from a number of alternatives remains an important challenge in the field of structural bioinformatics. Many Model Quality Assessment Programs (MQAPs) have been developed which adopt various strategies in order to tackle this problem, ranging from the so called "true" MQAPs capable of producing a single energy score based on a single model, to methods which rely on structural comparisons of multiple models or additional information from meta-servers. However, it is clear that no current method can separate the highest accuracy models from the lowest consistently. In this paper, a number of the top performing MQAP methods are benchmarked in the context of the potential value that they add to protein fold recognition. Two novel methods are also described: ModSSEA, which based on the alignment of predicted secondary structure elements and ModFOLD which combines several true MQAP methods using an artificial neural network. Results: The ModSSEA method is found to be an effective model quality assessment program for ranking multiple models from many servers, however further accuracy can be gained by using the consensus approach of ModFOLD. The ModFOLD method is shown to significantly outperform the true MQAPs tested and is competitive with methods which make use of clustering or additional information from multiple servers. Several of the true MQAPs are also shown to add value to most individual fold recognition servers by improving model selection, when applied as a post filter in order to re-rank models. Conclusion: MQAPs should be benchmarked appropriately for the practical context in which they are intended to be used. Clustering based methods are the top performing MQAPs where many models are available from many servers; however, they often do not add value to individual fold recognition servers when limited models are available. Conversely, the true MQAP methods tested can often be used as effective post filters for re-ranking few models from individual fold recognition servers and further improvements can be achieved using a consensus of these methods.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Amphioxus molecular biology: insights into vertebrate evolution and developmental mechanisms

The cephalochordate amphioxus is the best available proxy for the last common invertebrate ancestor of the vertebrates. During the last decade, the developmental genetics of amphioxus have been extensively examined for insights into the evolutionary origin and early evolution of the vertebrates. Comparisons between expression domains of homologous genes in amphioxus and vertebrates have strengthened proposed homologies between specific body parts. Molecular genetic studies have also highlighted parallels in the developmental mechanisms of amphioxus and vertebrates. In both groups, a similar nested pattern of Hox gene expression is involved in rostrocaudal patterning of the neural tube, and homologous genes also appear to be involved in dorsoventral neural patterning. Studies of amphioxus molecular biology have also hinted that the protochordate ancestor of the vertebrates included cell populations that modified their developmental genetic pathways during early vertebrate evolution to yield definitive neural crest and neurogenic placodes. We also discuss how the application of expressed sequence tag and gene-mapping approaches to amphioxus have combined with developmental studies to advance our understanding of chordate genome evolution. We conclude by considering the potential offered by the sequencing of the amphioxus genome, which was completed in late 2004.

Oxidation of biogenic and water-soluble compounds in aqueous and organic aerosol droplets by ozone: a kinetic and product analysis approach using laser Raman tweezers

The results of an experimental study into the oxidative degradation of proxies for atmospheric aerosol are presented. We demonstrate that the laser Raman tweezers method can be used successfully to obtain uptake coeffcients for gaseous oxidants on individual aqueous and organic droplets, whilst the size and composition of the droplets is simultaneously followed. A laser tweezers system was used to trap individual droplets containing an unsaturated organic compound in either an aqueous or organic ( alkane) solvent. The droplet was exposed to gas- phase ozone and the reaction kinetics and products followed using Raman spectroscopy. The reactions of three different organic compounds with ozone were studied: fumarate anions, benzoate anions and alpha pinene. The fumarate and benzoate anions in aqueous solution were used to represent components of humic- like substances, HULIS; a alpha- pinene in an alkane solvent was studied as a proxy for biogenic aerosol. The kinetic analysis shows that for these systems the diffusive transport and mass accommodation of ozone is relatively fast, and that liquid- phase di. ffusion and reaction are the rate determining steps. Uptake coe. ffcients, g, were found to be ( 1.1 +/- 0.7) x 10(-5), ( 1.5 +/- 0.7) x 10 (-5) and ( 3.0 - 7.5) x 10 (-3) for the reactions of ozone with the fumarate, benzoate and a- pinene containing droplets, respectively. Liquid- phase bimolecular rate coe. cients for reactions of dissolved ozone molecules with fumarate, benzoate and a- pinene were also obtained: k(fumarate) = ( 2.7 +/- 2) x 10 (5), k(benzoate) = ( 3.5 +/- 3) x 10 (5) and k(alpha-pinene) = ( 1-3) x 10(7) dm(3) mol (-1) s (- 1). The droplet size was found to remain stable over the course of the oxidation process for the HULIS- proxies and for the oxidation of a- pinene in pentadecane. The study of the alpha- pinene/ ozone system is the first using organic seed particles to show that the hygroscopicity of the particle does not increase dramatically over the course of the oxidation. No products were detected by Raman spectroscopy for the reaction of benzoate ions with ozone. One product peak, consistent with aqueous carbonate anions, was observed when following the oxidation of fumarate ions by ozone. Product peaks observed in the reaction of ozone with alpha- pinene suggest the formation of new species containing carbonyl groups.