Role of Predalors, Habitat Attributes, and Spatial Autocorrelation on the Distribution of Eggs in the Northern Spectacled Salamander (Salamandrina perspicillata)

We predicted that the probability of egg occurrence of salamander Salamandrina perspicillata depended on stream features and predation by native crayfish Austropotamobius fulcisianus and the introduced trout Salmo trutta. We assessed the presence of S. perspicillata at 54 sites within a natural reserve of southern Tuscany, Italy. Generalized linear models with binomial errors were constructed using egg presence/absence and altitude, stream mean size and slope, electrical conductivity, water pH and temperature, and a predation factor, defined according to the presence/absence of crayfish and trout. Some competing models also included an autocovariate term, which estimated how much the response variable at any one sampling point reflected response values at surrounding points. The resulting models were compared using Akaike's information criterion. Model selection led to a subset of 14 models with Delta AIC(c) <7 (i.e., models ranging from substantial support to considerably less support), and all but one of these included an effect of predation. Models with the autocovariate term had considerably more support than those without the term. According to multimodel inference, the presence of trout and crayfish reduced the probability of egg occurrence from a mean level of 0.90 (SE limits: 0.98-0.55) to 0.12 (SE limits: 0.34-0.04). The presence of crayfish alone had no detectable effects (SE limits: 0.86-0.39). The results suggest that introduced trout have a detrimental effect on the reproductive output of S. perspicillata and confirm the fundamental importance of distinguishing the roles of endogenous and exogenous forces that act on population distribution.

Imprecise probabilistic query answering using measures of ignorance and degree of satisfaction

In conditional probabilistic logic programming, given a query, the two most common forms for answering the query are either a probability interval or a precise probability obtained by using the maximum entropy principle. The former can be noninformative (e.g.,interval [0; 1]) and the reliability of the latter is questionable when the priori knowledge isimprecise. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose some methods to quantitativelymeasure if a probability interval or a single probability is sufficient for answering a query. We first propose an approach to measuring the ignorance of a probabilistic logic program with respect to a query. The measure of ignorance (w.r.t. a query) reflects howreliable a precise probability for the query can be and a high value of ignorance suggests that a single probability is not suitable for the query. We then propose a method to measure the probability that the exact probability of a query falls in a given interval, e.g., a second order probability. We call it the degree of satisfaction. If the degree of satisfaction is highenough w.r.t. the query, then the given interval can be accepted as the answer to the query. We also prove our measures satisfy many properties and we use a case study to demonstrate the significance of the measures. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Finite Element Analysis of Drilling of Carbon Fibre Reinforced Composites

Despite the increased applications of the composite materials in aerospace due to their exceptional physical and mechanical properties, the machining of composites remains a challenge. Fibre reinforced laminated composites are prone to different damages during machining process such as delamination, fibre pull-out, microcracks, thermal damages. Optimization of the drilling process parameters can reduces the probability of these damages. In the current research, a 3D finite element (FE) model is developed of the process of drilling in the carbon fibre reinforced composite (CFC). The FE model is used to investigate the effects of cutting speed and feed rate on thrust force, torque and delamination in the drilling of carbon fiber reinforced laminated composite. A mesoscale FE model taking into account of the different oriented plies and interfaces has been proposed to predict different damage modes in the plies and delamination. For validation purposes, experimental drilling tests have been performed and compared to the results of the finite element analysis. Using Matlab a digital image analysis code has been developed to assess the delamination factor produced in CFC as a result of drilling. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011.

Genetic variability evaluation in a Moroccan collection of barley, Hordeum vulgare L., by means of storage proteins and RAPDS

The genetic variation existing in a set of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) landrace samples recently collected in Morocco was estimated. Two kinds of genetic markers, seed storage proteins (hordeins) and random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD), were used. Only six out of 31 landraces were subjected to RAPD analysis. Both kinds of markers, RAPD and storage proteins, yielded similar results, showing that the level of variation observed in Moroccan barley was high: all landraces showed variability; 808 different storage protein patterns (multilocus associations) were observed among 1897 individuals (2.32 seeds per association, on average) with an average of 43 multilocus associations per accession. In general, genetic variation within accessions was higher than between accessions. The 100 polymorphic RAPD bands generated by 21 effective primers were able to generate enough patterns to differentiate between uniform cultivars and even between individuals in variable accessions. One of the aims of this work was to compare the effectiveness of RAPD versus storage protein techniques in assessing the variability of genetic resource collections. On average hordeins were more polymorphic than RAPDs: they showed more alternatives per band on gels and a higher percentage of polymorphic bands, although RAPDs supply a higher number of bands. Although RAPD is an easy and standard technique, storage protein analysis is technically easier, cheaper and needs less sophisticated equipment. Thus, when resources are a limiting factor and considering the cost of consumables and work time, seed storage proteins must be the technique of choice for a first estimation of genetic variation in plant genetic resource collections.

Design of an intravaginal ring for the controlled delivery of 17b-estradiol as its 3-acetate ester

Suitable ester prodrugs of 17b-estradiol are identified, thus permitting effective sustained and controlled estrogen replacement therapy (ERT) from an elastomeric, silicone intravaginal ring (IVR). IVR devices of reservoir design were prepared by blending silicone elastomer base with n-propylorthosilicate (cross-linker) and 10% w/w of 17b-estradiol or an ester prodrug, the mix being activated with 0.5% w/w stannous octoate and cured at 808C for 2 min. A rate-controlling membrane was similarly prepared, without the active agent. IVR devices were of cross-sectional diameter 9 mm, outer diameter 54 mm, with core cross-sectional diameter of 2 mm and core length varied as required. Sink conditions were evident for the 17b-estradiol esters in 1.0% aqueous benzalkonium chloride solution. The low release rates into 0.9% w/v saline of the lipophilic valerate and benzoate esters were due to their intrinsically low aqueous solubilities. In vivo, these esters failed to raise plasma estradiol above baseline levels in postmenopausal human volunteers, despite good in vitro release characteristics under sink conditions. The best release rates under sink conditions, in combination with substantial aqueous solubilities as indicated by the release rates into saline, were observed for the acetate and propionate esters. A
combination of drug release characteristics, short plasma half-life and a toxicologically acceptable hydrolysis product indicated that 17b-estradiol-3-acetate was the prodrug of choice for IVR delivery of ERT. In vivo, an IVR device releasing
100 mg/day of estradiol as its 3-acetate ester maintained over 84 days a circulating plasma concentration in the region of 300 pmol l , within the clinically desirable range for ERT.

Genome scan meta-analysis of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, part II:Schizophrenia

Schizophrenia is a common disorder with high heritability and a 10-fold increase in risk to siblings of probands. Replication has been inconsistent for reports of significant genetic linkage. To assess evidence for linkage across studies, rank-based genome scan meta-analysis (GSMA) was applied to data from 20 schizophrenia genome scans. Each marker for each scan was assigned to 1 of 120 30-cM bins, with the bins ranked by linkage scores (1 = most significant) and the ranks averaged across studies (R(avg)) and then weighted for sample size (N(sqrt)[affected casess]). A permutation test was used to compute the probability of observing, by chance, each bin's average rank (P(AvgRnk)) or of observing it for a bin with the same place (first, second, etc.) in the order of average ranks in each permutation (P(ord)). The GSMA produced significant genomewide evidence for linkage on chromosome 2q (PAvgRnk

Security Enhancement of Cooperative Single Carrier Systems

In this paper, the impact of multiple active eavesdroppers on cooperative single carrier systems with multiple relays and multiple destinations is examined. To achieve the secrecy diversity gains in the form of opportunistic selection, a two-stage scheme is proposed for joint relay and destination selection, in which, after the selection of the relay with the minimum effective maximum signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) to a cluster of eavesdroppers, the destination that has the maximum SNR from the chosen relay is selected. In order to accurately assess the secrecy performance, the exact and asymptotic expressions are obtained in closed-form for several security metrics including the secrecy outage probability, the probability of non-zero secrecy rate, and the ergodic secrecy rate in frequency selective fading. Based on the asymptotic analysis, key design parameters such as secrecy diversity gain, secrecy array gain, secrecy multiplexing gain, and power cost are characterized, from which new insights are drawn. Moreover, it is concluded that secrecy performance limits occur when the average received power at the eavesdropper is proportional to the counterpart at the destination. Specifically, for the secrecy outage probability, it is confirmed that the secrecy diversity gain collapses to zero with outage floor, whereas for the ergodic secrecy rate, it is confirmed confirm that its slope collapses to zero with capacity ceiling.

Drug treatment of macular oedema secondary to central retinal vein occlusion: a network meta-analysis

Objective
To indirectly compare aflibercept, bevacizumab, dexamethasone, ranibizumab and triamcinolone for treatment of macular oedema secondary to central retinal vein occlusion using a network meta-analysis (NMA).

Design
NMA.

Data sources
The following databases were searched from January 2005 to March 2013: MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-process, EMBASE; CDSR, DARE, HTA, NHSEED, CENTRAL; Science Citation Index and Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science.

Eligibility criteria for selecting studies
Only randomised controlled trials assessing patients with macular oedema secondary to central retinal vein occlusion were included. Studies had to report either proportions of patients gaining ≥3 lines, losing ≥3 lines, or the mean change in best corrected visual acuity. Two authors screened titles and abstracts, extracted data and undertook risk of bias assessment. Bayesian NMA was used to compare the different interventions.

Results
Seven studies, assessing five drugs, were judged to be sufficiently comparable for inclusion in the NMA. For the proportions of patients gaining ≥3 lines, triamcinolone 4 mg, ranibizumab 0.5 mg, bevacizumab 1.25 mg and aflibercept 2 mg had a higher probability of being more effective than sham and dexamethasone. A smaller proportion of patients treated with triamcinolone 4 mg, ranibizumab 0.5 mg or aflibercept 2 mg lost ≥3 lines of vision compared to those treated with sham. Patients treated with triamcinolone 4 mg, ranibizumab 0.5 mg, bevacizumab 1.25 mg and aflibercept 2 mg had a higher probability of improvement in the mean best corrected visual acuity compared to those treated with sham injections.

Conclusions
We found no evidence of differences between ranibizumab, aflibercept, bevacizumab and triamcinolone for improving vision. The antivascular endothelial growth factors (VEGFs) are likely to be favoured because they are not associated with steroid-induced cataract formation. Aflibercept may be preferred by clinicians because it might require fewer injections.

Diagnostic accuracy of pulmonary host inflammatory mediators in the exclusion of ventilator-acquired pneumonia

Background: Excessive use of empirical antibiotics is common in critically ill patients. Rapid biomarker-based exclusion of infection may improve antibiotic stewardship in ventilator-acquired pneumonia (VAP). However, successful validation of the usefulness of potential markers in this setting is exceptionally rare.

Objectives: We sought to validate the capacity for specific host inflammatory mediators to exclude pneumonia in patients with suspected VAP. 

Methods: A prospective, multicentre, validation study of patients with suspected VAP was conducted in 12 intensive care units. VAP was confirmed following bronchoscopy by culture of a potential pathogen in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) at >10⁴ colony forming units per millilitre (cfu/mL). Interleukin-1 beta (IL-1β), IL-8, matrix metalloproteinase-8 (MMP-8), MMP-9 and human neutrophil elastase (HNE) were quantified in BALF. Diagnostic utility was determined for biomarkers individually and in combination. 

Results: Paired BALF culture and biomarker results were available for 150 patients. 53 patients (35%) had VAP and 97 (65%) patients formed the non-VAP group. All biomarkers were significantly higher in the VAP group (p<0.001). The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for IL-1β was 0.81; IL-8, 0.74; MMP-8, 0.76; MMP-9, 0.79 and HNE, 0.78. A combination of IL-1β and IL-8, at the optimal cut-point, excluded VAP with a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 44.3% and a post-test probability of 0% (95% CI 0% to 9.2%). 

Conclusions: Low BALF IL-1β in combination with IL-8 confidently excludes VAP and could form a rapid biomarker-based rule-out test, with the potential to improve antibiotic stewardship.

Assessment of commercial sand barge radar for detecting overwintering diving ducks at Lough Neagh

Overwintering diving ducks at Lough Neagh have declined dramatically in recent years, but it has been suggested that on-to-offshore redistribution may have led to an underestimate of numbers. Most species feed nocturnally and their distribution at night is unknown. We used radar and visual observations from on board commercial sand barges to determine the diurnal distribution of diving duck flocks in an effort to assess the feasibility of using standard
boat-mounted radar to describe their nocturnal feeding distribution. Sand barge radar was poor in identifying flocks compared to independent visual observations as it was sensitive to interference by waves during windy conditions. However, visual observations were useful in describing diurnal distribution. Sand barges were on average 1.5km from shore when a flock of diving ducks was observed and the probability of detection declined with distance from shore. This supports the reliability of shore-based counts in monitoring and surveillance. Given the poor performance of commercially available boatmounted radar systems, we recommend the use of specialised terrestrial Bird Detecting Radar to determine the movements of diving ducks at Lough Neagh.

Characterization of the Kepler-101 planetary system with HARPS-N. A hot super-Neptune with an Earth-sized low-mass companion

We characterize the planetary system Kepler-101 by performing a combined differential evolution Markov chain Monte Carlo analysisof Kepler data and forty radial velocities obtained with the HARPS-N spectrograph. This system was previously validated and iscomposed of a hot super-Neptune, Kepler-101b, and an Earth-sized planet, Kepler-101c. These two planets orbit the slightly evolvedand metal-rich G-type star in 3.49 and 6.03 days, respectively. With mass Mp = 51.1+5.1−4.7 M⊕, radius Rp = 5.77+0.85−0.79 R⊕, and density ρp = 1.45+0.83 −0.48 g cm−3, Kepler-101b is the first fully characterized super-Neptune, and its density suggests that heavy elements makeup a significant fraction of its interior; more than 60% of its total mass. Kepler-101c has a radius of 1.25+0.19−0.17 R⊕, which implies theabsence of any H/He envelope, but its mass could not be determined because of the relative faintness of the parent star for highly precise radial-velocity measurements (Kp = 13.8) and the limited number of radial velocities. The 1σ upper limit, Mp < 3.8 M⊕, excludes a pure iron composition with a probability of 68.3%. The architecture of the planetary system Kepler-101 − containing aclose-in giant planet and an outer Earth-sized planet with a period ratio slightly larger than the 3:2 resonance − is certainly of interest for scenarios of planet formation and evolution. This system does not follow the previously reported trend that the larger planet has the longer period in the majority of Kepler systems of planet pairs with at least one Neptune-sized or larger planet.

In Vitro and In Vivo Anti-Schistosomal Activity of the Alkylphospholipid Analog Edelfosine

Background: Schistosomiasis is a parasitic disease caused by trematodes of the genus Schistosoma. Five species of Schistosoma are known to infect humans, out of which S. haematobium is the most prevalent, causing the chronic parasitic disease schistosomiasis that still represents a major problem of public health in many regions of the world and especially in tropical areas, leading to serious manifestations and mortality in developing countries. Since the 1970s, praziquantel (PZQ) is the drug of choice for the treatment of schistosomiasis, but concerns about relying on a single drug to treat millions of people, and the potential appearance of drug resistance, make identification of alternative schistosomiasis chemotherapies a high priority. Alkylphospholipid analogs (APLs), together with their prototypic molecule edelfosine (EDLF), are a family of synthetic antineoplastic compounds that show additional pharmacological actions, including antiparasitic activities against several protozoan parasites.

Methodology/Principal Findings: We found APLs ranked edelfosine> perifosine> erucylphosphocholine> miltefosine for their in vitro schistosomicidal activity against adult S. mansoni worms. Edelfosine accumulated mainly in the worm tegument, and led to tegumental alterations, membrane permeabilization, motility impairment, blockade of male-female pairing as well as induction of apoptosis-like processes in cells in the close vicinity to the tegument. Edelfosine oral treatment also showed in vivo schistosomicidal activity and decreased significantly the egg burden in the liver, a key event in schistosomiasis.

Conclusions/Significance: Our data show that edelfosine is the most potent APL in killing S. mansoni adult worms in vitro. Edelfosine schistosomicidal activity seems to depend on its action on the tegumental structure, leading to tegumental damage, membrane permeabilization and apoptosis-like cell death. Oral administration of edelfosine diminished worm and egg burdens in S. mansoni-infected CD1 mice. Here we report that edelfosine showed promising antischistosomal properties in vitro and in vivo.

Optical coherence tomography for the diagnosis, monitoring and guiding of treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration:a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND: Age-related macular degeneration is the most common cause of sight impairment in the UK. In neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD), vision worsens rapidly (over weeks) due to abnormal blood vessels developing that leak fluid and blood at the macula.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the optimal role of optical coherence tomography (OCT) in diagnosing people newly presenting with suspected nAMD and monitoring those previously diagnosed with the disease.

DATA SOURCES: Databases searched: MEDLINE (1946 to March 2013), MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations (March 2013), EMBASE (1988 to March 2013), Biosciences Information Service (1995 to March 2013), Science Citation Index (1995 to March 2013), The Cochrane Library (Issue 2 2013), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (inception to March 2013), Medion (inception to March 2013), Health Technology Assessment database (inception to March 2013).

REVIEW METHODS: Types of studies: direct/indirect studies reporting diagnostic outcomes.

INDEX TEST: time domain optical coherence tomography (TD-OCT) or spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT).

COMPARATORS: clinical evaluation, visual acuity, Amsler grid, colour fundus photographs, infrared reflectance, red-free images/blue reflectance, fundus autofluorescence imaging, indocyanine green angiography, preferential hyperacuity perimetry, microperimetry. Reference standard: fundus fluorescein angiography (FFA). Risk of bias was assessed using quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies, version 2. Meta-analysis models were fitted using hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curves. A Markov model was developed (65-year-old cohort, nAMD prevalence 70%), with nine strategies for diagnosis and/or monitoring, and cost-utility analysis conducted. NHS and Personal Social Services perspective was adopted. Costs (2011/12 prices) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were discounted (3.5%). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS: In pooled estimates of diagnostic studies (all TD-OCT), sensitivity and specificity [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 88% (46% to 98%) and 78% (64% to 88%) respectively. For monitoring, the pooled sensitivity and specificity (95% CI) was 85% (72% to 93%) and 48% (30% to 67%) respectively. The FFA for diagnosis and nurse-technician-led monitoring strategy had the lowest cost (£39,769; QALYs 10.473) and dominated all others except FFA for diagnosis and ophthalmologist-led monitoring (£44,649; QALYs 10.575; incremental cost-effectiveness ratio £47,768). The least costly strategy had a 46.4% probability of being cost-effective at £30,000 willingness-to-pay threshold.

LIMITATIONS: Very few studies provided sufficient information for inclusion in meta-analyses. Only a few studies reported other tests; for some tests no studies were identified. The modelling was hampered by a lack of data on the diagnostic accuracy of strategies involving several tests.

CONCLUSIONS: Based on a small body of evidence of variable quality, OCT had high sensitivity and moderate specificity for diagnosis, and relatively high sensitivity but low specificity for monitoring. Strategies involving OCT alone for diagnosis and/or monitoring were unlikely to be cost-effective. Further research is required on (i) the performance of SD-OCT compared with FFA, especially for monitoring but also for diagnosis; (ii) the performance of strategies involving combinations/sequences of tests, for diagnosis and monitoring; (iii) the likelihood of active and inactive nAMD becoming inactive or active respectively; and (iv) assessment of treatment-associated utility weights (e.g. decrements), through a preference-based study.

STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012001930.

FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Localizationlike effect in two-dimensional alternate quantum walks with periodic coin operations

Exploiting multidimensional quantum walks as feasible platforms for quantum computation and quantum simulation attracts constantly growing attention from a broad experimental physics community. Here, we propose a two-dimensional quantum walk scheme with a single-qubit coin that presents, in the considered regimes, a strong localizationlike effect on the walker. The result could provide new possible directions for the implementation of quantum algorithms or from the point of view of quantum simulation. We characterize the localizationlike effect in terms of the parameters of a step-dependent qubit operation that acts on the coin space after any standard coin operation, showing that a proper choice can guarantee a nonnegligible probability of finding the walker in the origin even for large times. We finally discuss the robustness to imperfections, a qualitative relation with coherences behavior, and possible experimental realizations of this model with the current state-of-the-art settings.

Tools for Assessing Outcomes in Studies of Chronic Cough: CHEST Guideline and Expert Panel Report

BACKGROUND: Since the publication of the 2006 American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) cough guidelines, a variety of tools has been developed or further refined for assessing cough. The purpose of the present committee was to evaluate instruments used by investigators performing clinical research on chronic cough. The specific aims were to (1) assess the performance of tools designed to measure cough frequency, severity, and impact in adults, adolescents, and children with chronic cough and (2) make recommendations or suggestions related to these findings.

METHODS: By following the CHEST methodologic guidelines, the CHEST Expert Cough Panel based its recommendations and suggestions on a recently published comparative effectiveness review commissioned by the US Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, a corresponding summary published in CHEST, and an updated systematic review through November 2013. Recommendations or suggestions based on these data were discussed, graded, and voted on during a meeting of the Expert Cough Panel.

RESULTS: We recommend for adults, adolescents (≥ 14 years of age), and children complaining of chronic cough that validated and reliable health-related quality-of-life (QoL) questionnaires be used as the measurement of choice to assess the impact of cough, such as the Leicester Cough Questionnaire and the Cough-Specific Quality-of-Life Questionnaire in adult and adolescent patients and the Parent Cough-Specific Quality of Life Questionnaire in children. We recommend acoustic cough counting to assess cough frequency but not cough severity. Limited data exist regarding the performance of visual analog scales, numeric rating scales, and tussigenic challenges.

CONCLUSIONS: Validated and reliable cough-specific health-related QoL questionnaires are recommended as the measurement of choice to assess the impact of cough on patients. How they compare is yet to be determined. When used, the reporting of cough severity by visual analog or numeric rating scales should be standardized. Previously validated QoL questionnaires or other cough assessments should not be modified unless the new version has been shown to be reliable and valid. Finally, in research settings, tussigenic challenges play a role in understanding mechanisms of cough.