Low levels of human leukocyte antigen donor-specific antibodies detected by solid phase assay before transplantation are frequently clinically irrelevant.

Since new technologies based on solid phase assays (SPA) have been routinely incorporated in the transplant immunology laboratory, the presence of pretransplantation donor-specific antibodies (DSA) against human leukocyte antigen (HLA) molecules has generally been considered as a risk factor for acute rejection (AR) and, in particular, for acute humoral rejection (AHR). We retrospectively studied 113 kidney transplant recipients who had negative prospective T-cell and B-cell complement-dependent cytotoxicity (CDC) crossmatches at the time of transplant. Pretransplantation sera were screened for the presence of circulating anti-HLA antibody and DSA by using highly sensitive and HLA-specific Luminex assay, and the results were correlated with AR and AHR posttransplantation. We found that approximately half of our patient population (55/113, 48.7%) had circulating anti-HLA antibody pretransplantation. Of 113 patients, 11 (9.7%) had HLA-DSA. Of 11 rejection episodes post-transplant, only two patients had pretransplantation DSA, of whom one had a severe AHR (C4d positive). One-year allograft survival was similar between the pretransplantation DSA-positive and -negative groups. Number, class, and intensity of pretransplantation DSA, as well as presensitizing events, could not predict AR. We conclude that, based on the presence of pretransplantation DSA, post-transplantation acute rejections episodes could not have been predicted. The only AHR episode occurred in a recipient with pretransplantation DSA. More work should be performed to better delineate the precise clinical significance of detecting low titers of DSA before transplantation.

Outcome of patients with acute coronary syndrome in hospitals of different sizes in Switzerland

Objective: To assess the impact of patient admission in different hospital types in Switzerland on early in-hospital and 1-year outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS).Methods: From 1997 to 2009, 31,010 ACS patients from 76 Swiss hospitals were enrolled in the AMIS Plus registry. Large tertiary teaching institutions with 24 hour/7 day cardiac catheterization facilities were classified as type A hospitals, all others as type B. One-year outcome was studied in a subgroup of patients admitted after 2005. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to calculate the odds ratios (OR with 95%CI) for independent predictors of mortality and major adverse cardiac events (MACE).Results: There were 11 type A hospitals with admissions of 15,987 (52%) patients and 65 type B hospitals with 15,023 (48%) patients. Patients initially admitted into B hospitals were older, more frequently female, hypertensive and diabetic, had more severe comorbidities and more frequently NSTE-ACS/UA. They were less likely to receive aspirin, clopidogrel and GPIIb/IIIa antagonists. STE-ACS patients initially admitted into B hospitals received more thrombolysis than those admitted into A hospitals, but less percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). From the patients admitted to B hospitals, 5271 (35%) were transferred for intervention. Crude in-hospital mortality and MACE were higher in patients from B hospitals. Crude 1-year mortality of 3747 ACS patients followed up was higher in patients initially admitted into B hospitals, but no differences were found for MACE. Hospital type, after adjustment for age, risk factors, type of ACS and co-morbidities, was not an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (OR 0.94; 0.76-1.16), in-hospital MACE (0.98; 0.82-1.17), 1-year mortality or 1-year MACE (1.06; 0.85-1.33). Analysis of the time of admission indicated a crude outcome in favor of hospitalization during duty-hours but no significant effect could be documented for 1-year outcome.Conclusion: ACS patients admitted to type B hospitals were older, had more severe co-morbidities, more NSTEACS and received less intensive treatment. However, after correcting for baseline inequalities, early and mid-term outcomes were similar regardless of hospital type. Ultimate patient outcome thus does not appear to be influenced by the type of hospital where the initial admission takes place. Appropriate early referral of selected patients probably partly explains this finding.

Rôle de l'EGFR dans le cancer pulmonaire non à petites cellules [The role of EGFR in non-small cell lung carcinoma]

EGFR receptor is expressed on most of the non small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC) cells. Its relative importance in oncogenesis and tumour progression seems to greatly vary among NSCLC. Two molecules targeting differently EGFR are currently used for the treatment of metastatic NSCLC. cetuximab, a monoclonal antibody directed against the extracellular domain of the receptor, leads to a moderate survival benefit when associated with standard first-line chemotherapy. Erlotinib, a small EGFR tyrosine-kinase inhibitor molecule is used in 2nd or 3rd treatment line. Predictive factors for efficiency of these new treatments are subjects of intense research, in order to allow a better selection of the patients who could benefit from such a strategy.

Incidence, complications and risk factors for severe falls in patients on maintenance haemodialysis.

BACKGROUND: Falls have been insufficiently studied in patients on maintenance haemodialysis (MHD). This study assessed the incidence and complications of severe falls and the ability of risk factors, including the Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment (POMA) test, to predict them in this population. METHODS: All patients on MHD from our centre were asked to participate in this survey. POMA test and a record of risk factors for falls were obtained at baseline. Severe falls, as defined by an admission in an emergency ward, were documented prospectively. RESULTS: Eighty-four patients (median age 69.5 years, minimum 26 years, maximum 85 years) were enrolled. Predialytic POMA scores were low (median 20, minimum 5, maximum 26). After a mean follow-up of 20.6 months (142.2 patient-years), 31 severe falls were recorded in 24 patients (28.6%; incidence 0.22 per patient-year) and complicated by fractures in 54.8% of severe falls. In univariate analysis, age, a past history of falls, malnutrition, depression, but not POMA score, were associated with severe falls. A POMA score of >21 had a negative predictive value of 82%. CONCLUSIONS: Severe falls were common in MHD patients in this study and resulted in fractures in >50% of the cases. They were associated with ageing, a past history of falls, malnutrition and depression. Although there was a trend towards a lower POMA score in fallers as compared to non-fallers, the POMA score was not an independent predictor of severe falls in this study. These data may help to stratify the patient's risk of falling in order to target programmes to prevent falls in this population.

Factor structure of early smoking experiences and associations with smoking behavior: valence or sensitivity model?

The Early Smoking Experience (ESE) questionnaire is the most widely used questionnaire to assess initial subjective experiences of cigarette smoking. However, its factor structure is not clearly defined and can be perceived from two main standpoints: valence, or positive and negative experiences, and sensitivity to nicotine. This article explores the ESE's factor structure and determines which standpoint was more relevant. It compares two groups of young Swiss men (German- and French-speaking). We examined baseline data on 3,368 tobacco users from a representative sample in the ongoing Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF). ESE, continued tobacco use, weekly smoking and nicotine dependence were assessed. Exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) and structural equation modeling (SEM) were performed. ESEM clearly distinguished positive experiences from negative experiences, but negative experiences were divided in experiences related to dizziness and experiences related to irritations. SEM underlined the reinforcing effects of positive experiences, but also of experiences related to dizziness on nicotine dependence and weekly smoking. The best ESE structure for predictive accuracy of experiences on smoking behavior was a compromise between the valence and sensitivity standpoints, which showed clinical relevance.

Hémorragie digestive haute: utilité des scores pronostiques [Upper gastrointestinal bleeding: usefulness of prognostic scores].

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a potentially serious event, usually requiring urgent endoscopic treatment. Better stratification of the risk of complication or death could optimize management and improve patient outcomes, while ensuring adequate resource allocation. Several prognostic scores have been developed, in order to identify high risk patients, who require immediate treatment, and patients at low risk for whom endoscopy may be delayed. An ideal prognostic score should be accurate, simple, reproducible, and prospectively validated in different populations. Published scores meet these requirements only partially, and thus can only be used as part of an integrative diagnostic and therapeutic process.

Calibration of Highway Safety Manual Work Zone Crash Modification Factors, TPF-5(081), 2014

The Highway Safety Manual is the national safety manual that provides quantitative methods for analyzing highway safety. The HSM presents crash modification factors related to work zone characteristics such as work zone duration and length. These crash modification factors were based on high-impact work zones in California. Therefore there was a need to use work zone and safety data from the Midwest to calibrate these crash modification factors for use in the Midwest. Almost 11,000 Missouri freeway work zones were analyzed to derive a representative and stratified sample of 162 work zones. The 162 work zones was more than four times the number of work zones used in the HSM. This dataset was used for modeling and testing crash modification factors applicable to the Midwest. The dataset contained work zones ranging from 0.76 mile to 9.24 miles and with durations from 16 days to 590 days. A combined fatal/injury/non-injury model produced a R2 fit of 0.9079 and a prediction slope of 0.963. The resulting crash modification factors of 1.01 for duration and 0.58 for length were smaller than the values in the HSM. Two practical application examples illustrate the use of the crash modification factors for comparing alternate work zone setups.

Evaluation of clinician-operated sonography and fine-needle aspiration in the assessment of salivary gland tumours.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the combination of ultrasound (US) + fine-needle aspiration (FNA) in the assessment of salivary gland tumours in the hands of the otolaryngologist. DESIGN: A retrospective review of case notes was performed. SETTING: Two university teaching hospitals in Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred and three patients with a total of 106 focal masses of the salivary glands were included. Clinician-operated US + FNA were the first line of investigation for these lesions. All patients underwent surgical excision of the lesion, which allowed for confirmation of diagnosis by histopathology in 104 lesions and by laboratory testing in two lesions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary--diagnostic accuracy in identifying true salivary gland neoplasms and detecting malignancy. Secondary--predicting an approximate and specific diagnosis in these tumours. RESULTS: The combination of US + FNA achieved a diagnostic accuracy of 99% in identifying and differentiating true salivary gland neoplasms from tumour-like lesions. In detecting malignancy, this combination permitted an accuracy of 98%. An approximate diagnosis was possible in 89%, and a specific diagnosis in 69% of our patients. CONCLUSIONS: Due to economic factors and a high diagnostic accuracy, the combination of US + FNA represents the investigation method of choice for most salivary gland tumours. We suggest that the otolaryngologist be employed in carrying out these procedures, as is already the rule in other medical specialties, while computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging should be reserved to those few lesions, which cannot be delineated completely by sonography.

The global activator GacA of Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO positively controls the production of the autoinducer N-butyryl-homoserine lactone and the formation of the virulence factors pyocyanin, cyanide, and lipase.

The global activator GacA, a highly conserved response regulator in Gram-negative bacteria, is required for the production of exoenzymes and secondary metabolites in Pseudomonas spp. The gacA gene of Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO1 was isolated and its role in cell-density-dependent gene expression was characterized. Mutational inactivation of gacA resulted in delayed and reduced formation of the cell-density signal N-butyryl-L-homoserine lactone (BHL), of the cognate transcriptional activator RhIR (VsmR), and of the transcriptional activator LasR, which is known to positively regulate RhIR expression. Amplification of gacA on a multicopy plasmid caused precocious and enhanced production of BHL, RhIR and LasR. In parallel, the gacA gene dosage markedly influenced the BHL/RhIR-dependent formation of the cytotoxic compounds pyocyanin and cyanide and the exoenzyme lipase. However, the concentrations of another known cell-density signal of P. aeruginosa, N-oxododecanoyl-L-homoserine lactone, did not always match BHL concentrations. A model accounting for these observations places GacA function upstream of LasR and RhIR in the complex, cell-density-dependent signal-transduction pathway regulating several exoproducts and virulence factors of P. aeruginosa via BHL.

Marqueurs diagnostiques de la carence en fer: lequel choisir [Diagnostic markers of iron deficiency: which should we choose?].

Iron deficiency is generally investigated when faced with anemia, or with symptoms that could be related to iron deficiency without anemia. This simple disorder is easy to treat, provided that the diagnosis is correct. Several biological tests are available, but their interpretation is oftentimes problematic. Pre-analytical factors can interfere with measurements, normal values can change depending on suppliers, and, above all, results from different markers can be contradictory in some clinical situations. The aim of this article is to evaluate how the evolution of scientific knowledge and clinical trials can contribute to a better understanding and greater reliability in the diagnosis of iron deficiency.

Tachycardia is a strong predictor of cardiovascular events in the value trial

Objective: Tachycardia is associated with hypertension and is a predictor of cardiovascular events. The predictive effect of tachycardia might reflect its connection with hypertension. In this analysis of 15,245 VALUE study patients we explore whether tachycardia predicts cardiovascular endpoints in high risk hypertension and whether the in-trial blood pressure lowering modified the tachycardia - related risk. Methods: Heart rate from ECG readings at baseline and annually throughout the trial. Results: In the Cox Regression analysis the primary endpoint hazard ratio for a 10 beats per minute increment of baseline heart rate was 1.16 (1.12-1.2) p < 0.0001, 1.17 (1.13-1.22) p < 0.0001 and 1.22 (1.18-1.27) p < 0.0001 unadjusted, adjusted for baseline blood pressure and for blood pressure plus risk factors, respectively. Primary endpoints strikingly increased in the highest quintile of baseline heart rate (=/>79 beats). Primary endpoints in the highest heart rate quintile were 30 % higher in first, 55 % in second, 55 % in third, 52 % in fourth and 46 % in the fifth year of the study. The in-trial heart rate was also a potent predictor. The primary endpoint hazard ratios of highest heart rate quintile versus pooled lower 4 quintiles was (1.34-1.66) p < 0.0001 unadjusted, 1.52 (1.36-1.69) p <0.0001 adjusted for baseline blood pressure and risk factors and 1.52 (1.36-1.69) p < 0.0001 further adjusted for in trial pressure. The increase of primary events in the upper quintile of in-trial heart rate was 68% in the group with good and 63% in the group with inadequate blood pressure control (both p < 0.0001 by log rank test). Conclusions: 1./ Tachycardia is a short term marker and a long term predictor of adverse event in high risk hypertension. 2./ Tachycardia contributes to the residual cardiovascular risk regardless of the degree of BP control. We hypothesize heart rate lowering with appropriate drugs may further decrease the cardiovascular risk in patients with high risk hypertension and tachycardia.

Aortic root rupture: implications of catheter-guided aortic valve replacement.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The safety and efficiency of trans catheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has been clearly demonstrated. In high-risk patients, the number of procedures is constantly increasing and in western European countries this procedure is employed in more than 30% of isolated aortic valve replacements. The literature, however, focusing on perioperative aortic root (AoR) rupture is rather limited to just a few reports. The aim of this review is to analyze the pathophysiology of AoR rupture during TAVI, stressing the implications of the morphology of the AoR for this devastating complication. RECENT FINDINGS: Currently, perioperative AoR rupture ranges between 0.5 and 1.5% during TAVI, with almost 100% mortality. Recently, valve oversizing and balloon dilatation in a calcified and small AoR were considered as the most important predictive factors for this complication. SUMMARY: The most fragile unit of the AoR is its anchoring substrate to the ostium of the left ventricle. This membranous structure is not involved in the degenerative process leading to aortic valve stenosis. Due to the TAVI and/or balloon dilatation of the calcium stationed on the three leaflets and their attachment, a lesion may result on this structure. And, as a consequence, there is rupture of the AoR.

Benzodiazepine overtreatment in status epilepticus is related to higher need of intubation and longer hospitalization.

Benzodiazepine (BDZ), a widely recognized first-line status epilepticus (SE) treatment, may lead to respiratory depression. This cohort study investigates the effect of BDZ doses in SE patients in terms of morbidity and mortality. It considers incident SE episodes from a prospective registry (2009-2012), comparing patients receiving standard BDZ dose to those receiving exceeding doses (>30% above recommended dose), in terms of likelihood to receive intubation, morbidity, and mortality. Duration of hospitalization was assessed for subjects needing intubation for airways protection (not for refractory SE treatment) versus matched subjects not admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). We identified 29 subjects receiving "excessive" and 173 "standard" BDZ dose; 45% of the overtreated patients were intubated for airways protection, but only 8% in the standard-dose group (p < 0.001). However, both groups presented similar clinical outcomes: 50% returned to baseline, 40% acquired a new handicap, and 10% died. Orotracheal intubation due to airways protection was associated with significantly longer hospitalization (mean 2 weeks vs. 1 week, p = 0.008). In conclusion, although administration of excessive BDZ doses in SE treatment does not seem to influence outcome, it is related to higher respiratory depression risk and longer hospitalization, potentially exposing patients to additional complications and costs.

Derivation and validation of a prognostic model for pulmonary embolism.

RATIONALE: An objective and simple prognostic model for patients with pulmonary embolism could be helpful in guiding initial intensity of treatment. OBJECTIVES: To develop a clinical prediction rule that accurately classifies patients with pulmonary embolism into categories of increasing risk of mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. METHODS: We randomly allocated 15,531 inpatient discharges with pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our prediction rule using logistic regression with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome, and patient demographic and clinical data routinely available at presentation as potential predictor variables. We externally validated the rule in 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism from Switzerland and France. MEASUREMENTS: We compared mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across the derivation and two validation samples. MAIN RESULTS: The prediction rule is based on 11 simple patient characteristics that were independently associated with mortality and stratifies patients with pulmonary embolism into five severity classes, with 30-day mortality rates of 0-1.6% in class I, 1.7-3.5% in class II, 3.2-7.1% in class III, 4.0-11.4% in class IV, and 10.0-24.5% in class V across the derivation and validation samples. Inpatient death and nonfatal complications were <or= 1.1% among patients in class I and <or= 1.9% among patients in class II. CONCLUSIONS: Our rule accurately classifies patients with pulmonary embolism into classes of increasing risk of mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. Further validation of the rule is important before its implementation as a decision aid to guide the initial management of patients with pulmonary embolism.

Conservation of the Eurasian Lynx (Lynx lynx) in a fragmented landscape - habitat models, dispersal and potential distribution

Abstract: The expansion of a recovering population - whether re-introduced or spontaneously returning - is shaped by (i) biological (intrinsic) factors such as the land tenure system or dispersal, (ii) the distribution and availability of resources (e.g. prey), (iii) habitat and landscape features, and (iv) human attitudes and activities. In order to develop efficient conservation and recovery strategies, we need to understand all these factors and to predict the potential distribution and explore ways to reach it. An increased number of lynx in the north-western Swiss Alps in the nineties lead to a new controversy about the return of this cat. When the large carnivores were given legal protection in many European countries, most organizations and individuals promoting their protection did not foresee the consequences. Management plans describing how to handle conflicts with large predators are needed to find a balance between "overabundance" and extinction. Wildlife and conservation biologists need to evaluate the various threats confronting populations so that adequate management decisions can be taken. I developed a GIS probability model for the lynx, based on habitat information and radio-telemetry data from the Swiss Jura Mountains, in order to predict the potential distribution of the lynx in this mountain range, which is presently only partly occupied by lynx. Three of the 18 variables tested for each square kilometre describing land use, vegetation, and topography, qualified to predict the probability of lynx presence. The resulting map was evaluated with data from dispersing subadult lynx. Young lynx that were not able to establish home ranges in what was identified as good lynx habitat did not survive their first year of independence, whereas the only one that died in good lynx habitat was illegally killed. Radio-telemetry fixes are often used as input data to calibrate habitat models. Radio-telemetry is the only way to gather accurate and unbiased data on habitat use of elusive larger terrestrial mammals. However, it is time consuming and expensive, and can therefore only be applied in limited areas. Habitat models extrapolated over large areas can in turn be problematic, as habitat characteristics and availability may change from one area to the other. I analysed the predictive power of Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) in Switzerland with the lynx as focal species. According to my results, the optimal sampling strategy to predict species distribution in an Alpine area lacking available data would be to pool presence cells from contrasted regions (Jura Mountains, Alps), whereas in regions with a low ecological variance (Jura Mountains), only local presence cells should be used for the calibration of the model. Dispersal influences the dynamics and persistence of populations, the distribution and abundance of species, and gives the communities and ecosystems their characteristic texture in space and time. Between 1988 and 2001, the spatio-temporal behaviour of subadult Eurasian lynx in two re-introduced populations in Switzerland was studied, based on 39 juvenile lynx of which 24 were radio-tagged to understand the factors influencing dispersal. Subadults become independent from their mothers at the age of 8-11 months. No sex bias neither in the dispersal rate nor in the distance moved was detected. Lynx are conservative dispersers, compared to bear and wolf, and settled within or close to known lynx occurrences. Dispersal distances reached in the high lynx density population - shorter than those reported in other Eurasian lynx studies - are limited by habitat restriction hindering connections with neighbouring metapopulations. I postulated that high lynx density would lead to an expansion of the population and validated my predictions with data from the north-western Swiss Alps where about 1995 a strong increase in lynx abundance took place. The general hypothesis that high population density will foster the expansion of the population was not confirmed. This has consequences for the re-introduction and recovery of carnivores in a fragmented landscape. To establish a strong source population in one place might not be an optimal strategy. Rather, population nuclei should be founded in several neighbouring patches. Exchange between established neighbouring subpopulations will later on take place, as adult lynx show a higher propensity to cross barriers than subadults. To estimate the potential population size of the lynx in the Jura Mountains and to assess possible corridors between this population and adjacent areas, I adapted a habitat probability model for lynx distribution in the Jura Mountains with new environmental data and extrapolated it over the entire mountain range. The model predicts a breeding population ranging from 74-101 individuals and from 51-79 individuals when continuous habitat patches < 50 km2 are disregarded. The Jura Mountains could once be part of a metapopulation, as potential corridors exist to the adjoining areas (Alps, Vosges Mountains, and Black Forest). Monitoring of the population size, spatial expansion, and the genetic surveillance in the Jura Mountains must be continued, as the status of the population is still critical. ENFA was used to predict the potential distribution of lynx in the Alps. The resulting model divided the Alps into 37 suitable habitat patches ranging from 50 to 18,711 km2, covering a total area of about 93,600 km2. When using the range of lynx densities found in field studies in Switzerland, the Alps could host a population of 961 to 1,827 residents. The results of the cost-distance analysis revealed that all patches were within the reach of dispersing lynx, as the connection costs were in the range of dispersal cost of radio-tagged subadult lynx moving through unfavorable habitat. Thus, the whole Alps could once be considered as a metapopulation. But experience suggests that only few disperser will cross unsuitable areas and barriers. This low migration rate may seldom allow the spontaneous foundation of new populations in unsettled areas. As an alternative to natural dispersal, artificial transfer of individuals across the barriers should be considered. Wildlife biologists can play a crucial role in developing adaptive management experiments to help managers learning by trial. The case of the lynx in Switzerland is a good example of a fruitful cooperation between wildlife biologists, managers, decision makers and politician in an adaptive management process. This cooperation resulted in a Lynx Management Plan which was implemented in 2000 and updated in 2004 to give the cantons directives on how to handle lynx-related problems. This plan was put into practice e.g. in regard to translocation of lynx into unsettled areas. Résumé: L'expansion d'une population en phase de recolonisation, qu'elle soit issue de réintroductions ou d'un retour naturel dépend 1) de facteurs biologiques tels que le système social et le mode de dispersion, 2) de la distribution et la disponibilité des ressources (proies), 3) de l'habitat et des éléments du paysage, 4) de l'acceptation de l'espèce par la population locale et des activités humaines. Afin de pouvoir développer des stratégies efficaces de conservation et de favoriser la recolonisation, chacun de ces facteurs doit être pris en compte. En plus, la distribution potentielle de l'espèce doit pouvoir être déterminée et enfin, toutes les possibilités pour atteindre les objectifs, examinées. La phase de haute densité que la population de lynx a connue dans les années nonante dans le nord-ouest des Alpes suisses a donné lieu à une controverse assez vive. La protection du lynx dans de nombreux pays européens, promue par différentes organisations, a entraîné des conséquences inattendues; ces dernières montrent que tout plan de gestion doit impérativement indiquer des pistes quant à la manière de gérer les conflits, tout en trouvant un équilibre entre l'extinction et la surabondance de l'espèce. Les biologistes de la conservation et de la faune sauvage doivent pour cela évaluer les différents risques encourus par les populations de lynx, afin de pouvoir rapidement prendre les meilleuresmdécisions de gestion. Un modèle d'habitat pour le lynx, basé sur des caractéristiques de l'habitat et des données radio télémétriques collectées dans la chaîne du Jura, a été élaboré afin de prédire la distribution potentielle dans cette région, qui n'est que partiellement occupée par l'espèce. Trois des 18 variables testées, décrivant pour chaque kilomètre carré l'utilisation du sol, la végétation ainsi que la topographie, ont été retenues pour déterminer la probabilité de présence du lynx. La carte qui en résulte a été comparée aux données télémétriques de lynx subadultes en phase de dispersion. Les jeunes qui n'ont pas pu établir leur domaine vital dans l'habitat favorable prédit par le modèle n'ont pas survécu leur première année d'indépendance alors que le seul individu qui est mort dans l'habitat favorable a été braconné. Les données radio-télémétriques sont souvent utilisées pour l'étalonnage de modèles d'habitat. C'est un des seuls moyens à disposition qui permette de récolter des données non biaisées et précises sur l'occupation de l'habitat par des mammifères terrestres aux moeurs discrètes. Mais ces méthodes de- mandent un important investissement en moyens financiers et en temps et peuvent, de ce fait, n'être appliquées qu'à des zones limitées. Les modèles d'habitat sont ainsi souvent extrapolés à de grandes surfaces malgré le risque d'imprécision, qui résulte des variations des caractéristiques et de la disponibilité de l'habitat d'une zone à l'autre. Le pouvoir de prédiction de l'Analyse Ecologique de la Niche (AEN) dans les zones où les données de présence n'ont pas été prises en compte dans le calibrage du modèle a été analysée dans le cas du lynx en Suisse. D'après les résultats obtenus, la meilleure mé- thode pour prédire la distribution du lynx dans une zone alpine dépourvue d'indices de présence est de combiner des données provenant de régions contrastées (Alpes, Jura). Par contre, seules les données sur la présence locale de l'espèce doivent être utilisées pour les zones présentant une faible variance écologique tel que le Jura. La dispersion influence la dynamique et la stabilité des populations, la distribution et l'abondance des espèces et détermine les caractéristiques spatiales et temporelles des communautés vivantes et des écosystèmes. Entre 1988 et 2001, le comportement spatio-temporel de lynx eurasiens subadultes de deux populations réintroduites en Suisse a été étudié, basé sur le suivi de 39 individus juvéniles dont 24 étaient munis d'un collier émetteur, afin de déterminer les facteurs qui influencent la dispersion. Les subadultes se sont séparés de leur mère à l'âge de 8 à 11 mois. Le sexe n'a pas eu d'influence sur le nombre d'individus ayant dispersés et la distance parcourue au cours de la dispersion. Comparé à l'ours et au loup, le lynx reste très modéré dans ses mouvements de dispersion. Tous les individus ayant dispersés se sont établis à proximité ou dans des zones déjà occupées par des lynx. Les distances parcourues lors de la dispersion ont été plus courtes pour la population en phase de haute densité que celles relevées par les autres études de dispersion du lynx eurasien. Les zones d'habitat peu favorables et les barrières qui interrompent la connectivité entre les populations sont les principales entraves aux déplacements, lors de la dispersion. Dans un premier temps, nous avons fait l'hypothèse que les phases de haute densité favorisaient l'expansion des populations. Mais cette hypothèse a été infirmée par les résultats issus du suivi des lynx réalisé dans le nord-ouest des Alpes, où la population connaissait une phase de haute densité depuis 1995. Ce constat est important pour la conservation d'une population de carnivores dans un habitat fragmenté. Ainsi, instaurer une forte population source à un seul endroit n'est pas forcément la stratégie la plus judicieuse. Il est préférable d'établir des noyaux de populations dans des régions voisines où l'habitat est favorable. Des échanges entre des populations avoisinantes pourront avoir lieu par la suite car les lynx adultes sont plus enclins à franchir les barrières qui entravent leurs déplacements que les individus subadultes. Afin d'estimer la taille de la population de lynx dans le Jura et de déterminer les corridors potentiels entre cette région et les zones avoisinantes, un modèle d'habitat a été utilisé, basé sur un nouveau jeu de variables environnementales et extrapolé à l'ensemble du Jura. Le modèle prédit une population reproductrice de 74 à 101 individus et de 51 à 79 individus lorsque les surfaces d'habitat d'un seul tenant de moins de 50 km2 sont soustraites. Comme des corridors potentiels existent effectivement entre le Jura et les régions avoisinantes (Alpes, Vosges, et Forêt Noire), le Jura pourrait faire partie à l'avenir d'une métapopulation, lorsque les zones avoisinantes seront colonisées par l'espèce. La surveillance de la taille de la population, de son expansion spatiale et de sa structure génétique doit être maintenue car le statut de cette population est encore critique. L'AEN a également été utilisée pour prédire l'habitat favorable du lynx dans les Alpes. Le modèle qui en résulte divise les Alpes en 37 sous-unités d'habitat favorable dont la surface varie de 50 à 18'711 km2, pour une superficie totale de 93'600 km2. En utilisant le spectre des densités observées dans les études radio-télémétriques effectuées en Suisse, les Alpes pourraient accueillir une population de lynx résidents variant de 961 à 1'827 individus. Les résultats des analyses de connectivité montrent que les sous-unités d'habitat favorable se situent à des distances telles que le coût de la dispersion pour l'espèce est admissible. L'ensemble des Alpes pourrait donc un jour former une métapopulation. Mais l'expérience montre que très peu d'individus traverseront des habitats peu favorables et des barrières au cours de leur dispersion. Ce faible taux de migration rendra difficile toute nouvelle implantation de populations dans des zones inoccupées. Une solution alternative existe cependant : transférer artificiellement des individus d'une zone à l'autre. Les biologistes spécialistes de la faune sauvage peuvent jouer un rôle important et complémentaire pour les gestionnaires de la faune, en les aidant à mener des expériences de gestion par essai. Le cas du lynx en Suisse est un bel exemple d'une collaboration fructueuse entre biologistes de la faune sauvage, gestionnaires, organes décisionnaires et politiciens. Cette coopération a permis l'élaboration du Concept Lynx Suisse qui est entré en vigueur en 2000 et remis à jour en 2004. Ce plan donne des directives aux cantons pour appréhender la problématique du lynx. Il y a déjà eu des applications concrètes sur le terrain, notamment par des translocations d'individus dans des zones encore inoccupées.