The elliptic model for communication fluxes

In this paper, a model (called the elliptic model) is proposed to estimate the number of social ties between two locations using population data in a similar manner to how transportation research deals with trips. To overcome the asymmetry of transportation models, the new model considers that the number of relationships between two locations is inversely proportional to the population in the ellipse whose foci are in these two locations. The elliptic model is evaluated by considering the anonymous communications patterns of 25 million users from three different countries, where a location has been assigned to each user based on their most used phone tower or billing zip code. With this information, spatial social networks are built at three levels of resolution: tower, city and region for each of the three countries. The elliptic model achieves a similar performance when predicting communication fluxes as transportation models do when predicting trips. This shows that human relationships are influenced at least as much by geography as is human mobility.

Business model for healthcare interoperability services

En la situación actual donde los sistemas TI sanitarios son diversos con modelos que van desde soluciones predominantes, adoptadas y creadas por grandes organizaciones, hasta soluciones a medida desarrolladas por cualquier empresa de la competencia para satisfacer necesidades concretas. Todos estos sistemas se encuentran bajo similares presiones financieras, no sólo de las condiciones económicas mundiales actuales y el aumento de los costes sanitarios, sino también bajo las presiones de una población que ha adoptado los avances tecnológicos actuales, y demanda una atención sanitaria más personalizable a la altura de esos avances tecnológicos que disfruta en otros ámbitos. El objeto es desarrollar un modelo de negocio orientado al soporte del intercambio de información en el ámbito clínico. El objetivo de este modelo de negocio es aumentar la competitividad dentro de este sector sin la necesidad de recurrir a expertos en estándares, proporcionando perfiles técnicos cualificados menos costosos con la ayuda de herramientas que simplifiquen el uso de los estándares de interoperabilidad. Se hará uso de especificaciones abiertas ya existentes como FHIR, que publica documentación y tutoriales bajo licencias abiertas. La principal ventaja que nos encontramos es que ésta especificación presenta un giro en la concepción actual de la disposición de información clínica, vista hasta ahora como especial por el requerimiento de estándares más complejos que solucionen cualquier caso por específico que sea. Ésta especificación permite hacer uso de la información clínica a través de tecnologías web actuales (HTTP, HTML, OAuth2, JSON, XML) que todo el mundo puede usar sin un entrenamiento particular para crear y consumir esta información. Partiendo por tanto de un mercado con una integración de la información casi inexistente, comparada con otros entornos actuales, hará que el gasto en integración clínica aumente dramáticamente, dejando atrás los desafíos técnicos cuyo gasto retrocederá a un segundo plano. El gasto se centrará en las expectativas de lo que se puede obtener en la tendencia actual de la personalización de los datos clínicos de los pacientes, con acceso a los registros de instituciones junto con datos ‘sociales/móviles/big data’.---ABSTRACT---In the current situation IT health systems are diverse, with models varying from predominant solutions adopted and created by large organizations, to ad-hoc solutions developed by any company to meet specific needs. However, all these systems are under similar financial pressures, not only from current global economic conditions and increased health care costs, but also under pressure from a population that has embraced the current technological advances, and demand a more personalized health care, up to those enjoyed by technological advances in other areas. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a business model aimed at the provision of information exchange within the clinical domain. It is intended to increase competitiveness in the health IT sector without the need for experts in standards, providing qualified technical profiles less expensively with the help of tools that simplify the use of interoperability standards. Open specifications, like FHIR, will be used in order to enable interoperability between systems. The main advantage found within FHIR is that introduces a shift in the current conception of available clinical information. So far seen, the clinical information domain IT systems, as a special requirement for more complex standards that address any specific case. This specification allows the use of clinical information through existing web technologies (HTTP, HTML, OAuth2, JSON and XML), which everyone can use with no particular training to create and consume this information. The current situation in the sector is that the integration of information is almost nonexistent, compared to current trends. Spending in IT health systems will increase dramatically within clinical integration for the next years, leaving the technical challenges whose costs will recede into the background. The investment on this area will focus on the expectations of what can be obtained in the current trend of personalization of clinical data of patients with access to records of institutions with ‘social /mobile /big data’.

An ICT-based closed-loop model to improve care for heart failure patients

Durante las últimas décadas se ha producido un fenómeno global de envejecimiento en la población. Esta tendencia se puede observar prácticamente en todos los países del mundo y se debe principalmente a los avances en la medicina, y a los descensos en las tasas de fertilidad y mortalidad. El envejecimiento de la población tiene un gran impacto en la salud de los ciudadanos, y a menudo es la causa de aparición de enfermedades crónicas. Este tipo de enfermedades supone una amenaza y una carga importantes para la sociedad, especialmente en aspectos como la mortalidad o los gastos en los sistemas sanitarios. Entre las enfermedades cardiovasculares, la insuficiencia cardíaca es probablemente la condición con mayor prevalencia y afecta a 23-26 millones de personas en todo el mundo. Normalmente, la insuficiencia cardíaca presenta un mal pronóstico y una tasa de supervivencia bajas, en algunos casos peores que algún tipo de cáncer. Además, suele ser la causa de hospitalizaciones frecuentes y es una de las enfermedades más costosas para los sistemas sanitarios. La tendencia al envejecimiento de la población y la creciente incidencia de las enfermedades crónicas están llevando a una situación en la que los sistemas de salud no son capaces de hacer frente a la demanda de la sociedad. Los servicios de salud existentes tendrán que adaptarse para ser efectivos y sostenibles en el futuro. Es necesario identificar nuevos paradigmas de cuidado de pacientes, así como mecanismos para la provisión de servicios que ayuden a transformar estos sistemas sanitarios. En este contexto, esta tesis se plantea la búsqueda de soluciones, basadas en las Tecnologías de la Información y la Comunicación (TIC), que contribuyan a realizar la transformación en los sistemas sanitarios. En concreto, la tesis se centra en abordar los problemas de una de las enfermedades con mayor impacto en estos sistemas: la insuficiencia cardíaca. Las siguientes hipótesis constituyen la base para la realización de este trabajo de investigación: 1. Es posible definir un modelo basado en el paradigma de lazo cerrado y herramientas TIC que formalice el diseño de mejores servicios para pacientes con insuficiencia cardíaca. 2. El modelo de lazo cerrado definido se puede utilizar para definir un servicio real que ayude a gestionar la insuficiencia cardíaca crónica. 3. La introducción, la adopción y el uso de un servicio basado en el modelo definido se traducirá en mejoras en el estado de salud de los pacientes que sufren insuficiencia cardíaca. a. La utilización de un sistema basado en el modelo de lazo cerrado definido mejorará la experiencia del usuario de los pacientes. La definición del modelo planteado se ha basado en el estándar ISO / EN 13940- Sistema de conceptos para dar soporte a la continuidad de la asistencia. Comprende un conjunto de conceptos, procesos, flujos de trabajo, y servicios como componentes principales, y representa una formalización de los servicios para los pacientes con insuficiencia cardíaca. Para evaluar el modelo definido se ha definido un servicio real basado en el mismo, además de la implementación de un sistema de apoyo a dicho servicio. El diseño e implementación de dicho sistema se realizó siguiendo la metodología de Diseño Orientado a Objetivos. El objetivo de la evaluación consistía en investigar el efecto que tiene un servicio basado en el modelo de lazo cerrado sobre el estado de salud de los pacientes con insuficiencia cardíaca. La evaluación se realizó en el marco de un estudio clínico observacional. El análisis de los resultados ha comprendido métodos de análisis cuantitativos y cualitativos. El análisis cuantitativo se ha centrado en determinar el estado de salud de los pacientes en base a datos objetivos (obtenidos en pruebas de laboratorio o exámenes médicos). Para realizar este análisis se definieron dos índices específicos: el índice de estabilidad y el índice de la evolución del estado de salud. El análisis cualitativo ha evaluado la autopercepción del estado de salud de los pacientes en términos de calidad de vida, auto-cuidado, el conocimiento, la ansiedad y la depresión, así como niveles de conocimiento. Se ha basado en los datos recogidos mediante varios cuestionarios o instrumentos estándar (i.e. EQ-5D, la Escala de Ansiedad y Depresión (HADS), el Cuestionario de Cardiomiopatía de Kansas City (KCCQ), la Escala Holandesa de Conocimiento de Insuficiencia Cardíaca (DHFKS), y la Escala Europea de Autocuidado en Insuficiencia Cardíaca (EHFScBS), así como cuestionarios dedicados no estandarizados de experiencia de usuario. Los resultados obtenidos en ambos análisis, cuantitativo y cualitativo, se compararon con el fin de evaluar la correlación entre el estado de salud objetivo y subjetivo de los pacientes. Los resultados de la validación demostraron que el modelo propuesto tiene efectos positivos en el cuidado de los pacientes con insuficiencia cardíaca y contribuye a mejorar su estado de salud. Asimismo, ratificaron al modelo como instrumento válido para la definición de servicios mejorados para la gestión de esta enfermedad. ABSTRACT During the last decades we have witnessed a global aging phenomenon in the population. This can be observed in practically every country in the world, and it is mainly caused by the advances in medicine, and the decrease of mortality and fertility rates. Population aging has an important impact on citizens’ health and it is often the cause for chronic diseases, which constitute global burden and threat to the society in terms of mortality and healthcare expenditure. Among chronic diseases, Chronic Heart Failure (CHF) or Heart Failure (HF) is probably the one with highest prevalence, affecting between 23 and 26 million people worldwide. Heart failure is a chronic, long-term and serious condition with very poor prognosis and worse survival rates than some type of cancers. Additionally, it is often the cause of frequent hospitalizations and one of the most expensive conditions for the healthcare systems. The aging trends in the population and the increasing incidence of chronic diseases are leading to a situation where healthcare systems are not able to cope with the society demand. Current healthcare services will have to be adapted and redefined in order to be effective and sustainable in the future. There is a need to find new paradigms for patients’ care, and to identify new mechanisms for services’ provision that help to transform the healthcare systems. In this context, this thesis aims to explore new solutions, based on ICT, that contribute to achieve the needed transformation within the healthcare systems. In particular, it focuses on addressing the problems of one of the diseases with higher impact within these systems: Heart Failure. The following hypotheses represent the basis to the elaboration of this research: 1. It is possible to define a model based on a closed-loop paradigm and ICT tools that formalises the design of enhanced healthcare services for chronic heart failure patients. 2. The described closed-loop model can be exemplified in a real service that supports the management of chronic heart failure disease. 3. The introduction, adoption and use of a service based on the outlined model will result in improvements in the health status of patients suffering heart failure. 4. The user experience of patients when utilizing a system based on the defined closed-loop model will be enhanced. The definition of the closed-loop model for health care support of heart failure patients have been based on the standard ISO/EN 13940 System of concepts to support continuity of care. It includes a set of concept, processes and workflows, and services as main components, and it represent a formalization of services for heart failure patients. In order to be validated, the proposed closed-loop model has been instantiated into a real service and a supporting IT system. The design and implementation of the system followed the user centred design methodology Goal Oriented Design. The validation, that included an observational clinical study, aimed to investigate the effect that a service based on the closed-loop model had on heart failure patients’ health status. The analysis of results comprised quantitative and qualitative analysis methods. The quantitative analysis was focused on determining the health status of patients based on objective data (obtained in lab tests or physical examinations). Two specific indexes where defined and considered in this analysis: the stability index and the health status evolution index. The qualitative analysis assessed the self-perception of patients’ health status in terms of quality of life, self-care, knowledge, anxiety and depression, as well as knowledge levels. It was based on the data gathered through several standard instruments (i.e. EQ-5D, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire, the Dutch Heart Failure Knowledge Scale, and the European Heart Failure Self-care Behaviour Scale) as well as dedicated non-standardized user experience questionnaires. The results obtained in both analyses, quantitative and qualitative, were compared in order to assess the correlation between the objective and subjective health status of patients. The results of the validation showed that the proposed model contributed to improve the health status of the patients and had a positive effect on the patients’ care. It also proved that the model is a valid instrument for designing enhanced healthcare services for heart failure patients.

Estimating sequestered parasite population dynamics in cerebral malaria

Clinical investigation of malaria is hampered by the lack of a method for estimating the number of parasites that are sequestered in the tissues, for it is these parasites that are thought to be crucial to the pathogenesis of life-threatening complications such as cerebral malaria. We present a method of estimating this hidden population by using clinical observations of peripheral parasitemia combined with an age-structured mathematical model of the parasite erythrocyte cycle. Applying the model to data from 217 Gambian children undergoing treatment for cerebral malaria we conclude that although artemether clears parasitemia more rapidly than quinine, the clearance of sequestered parasites is similar for the two drugs. The estimated sequestered mass was found to be a more direct predictor of fatal outcome than clinically observed parasitemia. This method allows a sequential analysis of sequestered parasite population dynamics in children suffering from cerebral malaria, and the results offer a possible explanation for why artemether provides less advantage than might have been expected over quinine in reducing mortality despite its rapid effect on circulating parasites.

A model-based approach for assessing in vivo combination therapy interactions

We present an approach for evaluating the efficacy of combination antitumor agent schedules that accounts for order and timing of drug administration. Our model-based approach compares in vivo tumor volume data over a time course and offers a quantitative definition for additivity of drug effects, relative to which synergism and antagonism are interpreted. We begin by fitting data from individual mice receiving at most one drug to a differential equation tumor growth/drug effect model and combine individual parameter estimates to obtain population statistics. Using two null hypotheses: (i) combination therapy is consistent with additivity or (ii) combination therapy is equivalent to treating with the more effective single agent alone, we compute predicted tumor growth trajectories and their distribution for combination treated animals. We illustrate this approach by comparing entire observed and expected tumor volume trajectories for a data set in which HER-2/neu-overexpressing MCF-7 human breast cancer xenografts are treated with a humanized, anti-HER-2 monoclonal antibody (rhuMAb HER-2), doxorubicin, or one of five proposed combination therapy schedules.

Vibrational population relaxation of carbon monoxide in the heme pocket of photolyzed carbonmonoxy myoglobin: Comparison of time-resolved mid-IR absorbance experiments and molecular dynamics simulations

The vibrational energy relaxation of carbon monoxide in the heme pocket of sperm whale myoglobin was studied by using molecular dynamics simulation and normal mode analysis methods. Molecular dynamics trajectories of solvated myoglobin were run at 300 K for both the δ- and ɛ-tautomers of the distal His-64. Vibrational population relaxation times of 335 ± 115 ps for the δ-tautomer and 640 ± 185 ps for the ɛ-tautomer were estimated by using the Landau–Teller model. Normal mode analysis was used to identify those protein residues that act as the primary “doorway” modes in the vibrational relaxation of the oscillator. Although the CO relaxation rates in both the ɛ- and δ-tautomers are similar in magnitude, the simulations predict that the vibrational relaxation of the CO is faster in the δ-tautomer with the distal His playing an important role in the energy relaxation mechanism. Time-resolved mid-IR absorbance measurements were performed on photolyzed carbonmonoxy hemoglobin (Hb13CO). From these measurements, a T1 time of 600 ± 150 ps was determined. The simulation and experimental estimates are compared and discussed.

Social transmission of reproductive behavior increases frequency of inherited disorders in a young-expanding population

The observation of high frequencies of certain inherited disorders in the population of Saguenay–Lac Saint Jean can be explained in terms of the variance and the correlation of effective family size (EFS) from one generation to the next. We have shown this effect by using the branching process approach with real demographic data. When variance of EFS is included in the model, despite its profound effect on mutant allele frequency, any mutant introduced in the population never reaches the known carrier frequencies (between 0.035 and 0.05). It is only when the EFS correlation between generations is introduced into the model that we can explain the rise of the mutant alleles. This correlation is described by a c parameter that reflects the dependency of children’s EFS on their parents’ EFS. The c parameter can be considered to reflect social transmission of demographic behavior. We show that such social transmission dramatically reduces the effective population size. This could explain particular distributions in allele frequencies and unusually high frequency of certain inherited disorders in some human populations.

Population regulation in snowshoe hare and Canadian lynx: Asymmetric food web configurations between hare and lynx

The snowshoe hare and the Canadian lynx in the boreal forests of North America show 9- to 11-year density cycles. These are generally assumed to be linked to each other because lynx are specialist predators on hares. Based on time series data for hare and lynx, we show that the dominant dimensional structure of the hare series appears to be three whereas that of the lynx is two. The three-dimensional structure of the hare time series is hypothesized to be due to a three-trophic level model in which the hare may be seen as simultaneously regulated from below and above. The plant species in the hare diet appear compensatory to one another, and the predator species may, likewise, be seen as an internally compensatory guild. The lynx time series are, in contrast, consistent with a model of donor control in which their populations are regulated from below by prey availability. Thus our analysis suggests that the classic view of a symmetric hare–lynx interaction is too simplistic. Specifically, we argue that the classic food chain structure is inappropriate: the hare is influenced by many predators other than the lynx, and the lynx is primarily influenced by the snowshoe hare.

Overexpression of p27Kip1 lengthens the G1 phase in a mouse model that targets inducible gene expression to central nervous system progenitor cells

We describe a mouse model in which p27Kip1 transgene expression is spatially restricted to the central nervous system neuroepithelium and temporally controlled with doxycycline. Transgene-specific transcripts are detectable within 6 h of doxycycline administration, and maximum nonlethal expression is approached within 12 h. After 18–26 h of transgene expression, the G1 phase of the cell cycle is estimated to increase from 9 to 13 h in the neocortical neuroepithelium, the maximum G1 phase length attainable in this proliferative population in normal mice. Thus our data establish a direct link between p27Kip1 and control of G1 phase length in the mammalian central nervous system and unveil intrinsic mechanisms that constrain the G1 phase length to a putative physiological maximum despite ongoing p27Kip1 transgene expression.

Maize as a model for the evolution of plant nuclear genomes

The maize genome is replete with chromosomal duplications and repetitive DNA. The duplications resulted from an ancient polyploid event that occurred over 11 million years ago. Based on DNA sequence data, the polyploid event occurred after the divergence between sorghum and maize, and hence the polyploid event explains some of the difference in DNA content between these two species. Genomic rearrangement and diploidization followed the polyploid event. Most of the repetitive DNA in the maize genome is retrotransposable elements, and they comprise 50% of the genome. Retrotransposon multiplication has been relatively recent—within the last 5–6 million years—suggesting that the proliferation of retrotransposons has also contributed to differences in DNA content between sorghum and maize. There are still unanswered questions about repetitive DNA, including the distribution of repetitive DNA throughout the genome, the relative impacts of retrotransposons and chromosomal duplication in plant genome evolution, and the hypothesized correlation of duplication events with transposition. Population genetic processes also affect the evolution of genomes. We discuss how centromeric genes should, in theory, contain less genetic diversity than noncentromeric genes. In addition, studies of diversity in the wild relatives of maize indicate that different genes have different histories and also show that domestication and intensive breeding have had heterogeneous effects on genetic diversity across genes.

Nitric oxide production in SJL mice bearing the RcsX lymphoma: a model for in vivo toxicological evaluation of NO.

SJL mice spontaneously develop pre-B-cell lymphoma that we hypothesized might stimulate macrophages to produce nitric oxide (NO.). Transplantation of an aggressive lymphoma (RcsX) was used to induce tumor formation. Urinary nitrate excretion was measured as an index of NO. production and was found to increase 50-fold by 13 days after tumor injection. NO. production was prevented by the addition of a nitric oxide synthase (NOS) inhibitor. The expression of inducible NOS (iNOS) in various tissues was estimated by Western blot analysis and localized by immunohistochemistry. The synthase was detected in the spleen, lymph nodes, and liver of treated but not control mice. To assess whether the iNOS-staining cells were macrophages, spleen sections from ResX-bearing animals were costained with anti-iNOS antibody and the anti-macrophage antibody moma-2. Expression of iNOS was found to be limited to a subset of the macrophage population. The concentration of gamma-interferon, a cytokine known to induce NO. production by macrophages, in the serum of tumor-bearing mice, was measured and found to be elevated 25-fold above untreated mice. The ability of ResX-activated macrophages to inhibit splenocyte growth in primary culture was estimated and macrophage-derived NO. was found to inhibit cell division 10-fold. Our findings demonstrate that ResX cells stimulate NO. production by macrophages in the spleen and lymph nodes of SJL mice, and we believe this experimental model will prove useful for study of the toxicological effects of NO. under physiological conditions.

A model of multiplicative neural responses in parietal cortex.

Visual responses of neurons in parietal area 7a are modulated by a combined eye and head position signal in a multiplicative manner. Neurons with multiplicative responses can act as powerful computational elements in neural networks. In the case of parietal cortex, multiplicative gain modulation appears to play a crucial role in the transformation of object locations from retinal to body-centered coordinates. It has proven difficult to uncover single-neuron mechanisms that account for neuronal multiplication. Here we show that multiplicative responses can arise in a network model through population effects. Specifically, neurons in a recurrently connected network with excitatory connections between similarly tuned neurons and inhibitory connections between differently tuned neurons can perform a product operation on additive synaptic inputs. The results suggest that parietal responses may be based on this architecture.

A model of self-thinning through local competition.

Explanations of self-thinning in plant populations have focused on plant shape and packing. A dynamic model based on the structure of local interactions successfully reproduces the pattern and can be approximated to identify key parameters and relationships. The approach generates testable new explanations for differences between species and populations, unifies self-thinning with other patterns in plant population dynamics, and indicates why organisms other than plants can follow the law.

Unusual dynamics of extinction in a simple ecological model.

Studies on natural populations and harvesting biological resources have led to the view, commonly held, that (i) populations exhibiting chaotic oscillations run a high risk of extinction; and (ii) a decrease in emigration/exploitation may reduce the risk of extinction. Here we describe a simple ecological model with emigration/depletion that shows behavior in contrast to this. This model displays unusual dynamics of extinction and survival, where populations growing beyond a critical rate can persist within a band of high depletion rates, whereas extinction occurs for lower depletion rates. Though prior to extinction at lower depletion rates the population exhibits chaotic dynamics with large amplitudes of variation and very low minima, at higher depletion rates the population persists at chaos but with reduced variation and increased minima. For still higher values, within the band of persistence, the dynamics show period reversal leading to stability. These results illustrate that chaos does not necessarily lead to population extinction. In addition, the persistence of populations at high depletion rates has important implications in the considerations of strategies for the management of biological resources.

An n-allele model for progressive amplification in the FMR1 locus.

An n-allele model is developed for the FMR1 locus, which causes the fragile X syndrome, where n is the number of triplet repeats in the first exon. Frequencies in the general population and in index families are used to generate an n to n + delta transition matrix that predicts specific risks in satisfactory agreement with observation. However, until sequencing distinguishes between stable and unstable alleles with the same value of n, it is premature to infer whether allelic frequencies at the FMR1 locus are at equilibrium or, as some have suggested, are evolving toward higher frequencies of the pathogenic allele.