Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

The distribution pattern of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) in the peridomiciles of a sector with canine and human visceral leishmaniasis transmission in the municipality of Dracena, São Paulo, Brazil

The specimen distribution pattern of a species can be used to characterise a population of interest and also provides area-specific guidance for pest management and control. In the municipality of Dracena, in the state of São Paulo, we analysed 5,889 Lutzomyia longipalpis specimens collected from the peridomiciles of 14 houses in a sector where American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) is transmitted to humans and dogs. The goal was to analyse the dispersion and a theoretical fitting of the species occurrence probability. From January-December 2005, samples were collected once per week using CDC light traps that operated for 12-h periods. Each collection was considered a sub-sample and was evaluated monthly. The standardised Morisita index was used as a measure of dispersion. Adherence tests were performed for the log-series distribution. The number of traps was used to adjust the octave plots. The quantity of Lu. longipalpis in the sector was highly aggregated for each month of the year, adhering to a log-series distribution for 11 of the 12 months analysed. A sex-stratified analysis demonstrated a pattern of aggregated dispersion adjusted for each month of the year. The classes and frequencies of the traps in octaves can be employed as indicators for entomological surveillance and AVL control.

Expression of non-TLR pattern recognition receptors in the spleen of BALB/c mice infected with Plasmodium yoelii and Plasmodium chabaudi chabaudi AS

The spleen plays a crucial role in the development of immunity to malaria, but the role of pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) in splenic effector cells during malaria infection is poorly understood. In the present study, we analysed the expression of selected PRRs in splenic effector cells from BALB/c mice infected with the lethal and non-lethal Plasmodium yoelii strains 17XL and 17X, respectively, and the non-lethal Plasmodium chabaudi chabaudi AS strain. The results of these experiments showed fewer significant changes in the expression of PRRs in AS-infected mice than in 17X and 17XL-infected mice. Mannose receptor C type 2 (MRC2) expression increased with parasitemia, whereas Toll-like receptors and sialoadhesin (Sn) decreased in mice infected with P. chabaudi AS. In contrast, MRC type 1 (MRC1), MRC2 and EGF-like module containing mucin-like hormone receptor-like sequence 1 (F4/80) expression decreased with parasitemia in mice infected with 17X, whereas MRC1 an MRC2 increased and F4/80 decreased in mice infected with 17XL. Furthermore, macrophage receptor with collagenous structure and CD68 declined rapidly after initial parasitemia. SIGNR1 and Sn expression demonstrated minor variations in the spleens of mice infected with either strain. Notably, macrophage scavenger receptor (Msr1) and dendritic cell-associated C-type lectin 2 expression increased at both the transcript and protein levels in 17XL-infected mice with 50% parasitemia. Furthermore, the increased lethality of 17X infection in Msr1 -/- mice demonstrated a protective role for Msr1. Our results suggest a dual role for these receptors in parasite clearance and protection in 17X infection and lethality in 17XL infection.

Factors associated with the emergence of K65R in patients with HIV-1 infection treated with combination antiretroviral therapy containing tenofovir.

BACKGROUND: The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 reverse-transcriptase mutation K65R is a single-point mutation that has become more frequent after increased use of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). We aimed to identify predictors for the emergence of K65R, using clinical data and genotypic resistance tests from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. METHODS: A total of 222 patients with genotypic resistance tests performed while receiving treatment with TDF-containing regimens were stratified by detectability of K65R (K65R group, 42 patients; undetected K65R group, 180 patients). Patient characteristics at start of that treatment were analyzed. RESULTS: In an adjusted logistic regression, TDF treatment with nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors and/or didanosine was associated with the emergence of K65R, whereas the presence of any of the thymidine analogue mutations D67N, K70R, T215F, or K219E/Q was protective. The previously undescribed mutational pattern K65R/G190S/Y181C was observed in 6 of 21 patients treated with efavirenz and TDF. Salvage therapy after TDF treatment was started for 36 patients with K65R and for 118 patients from the wild-type group. Proportions of patients attaining human immunodeficiency virus type 1 loads <50 copies/mL after 24 weeks of continuous treatment were similar for the K65R group (44.1%; 95% confidence interval, 27.2%-62.1%) and the wild-type group (51.9%; 95% confidence interval, 42.0%-61.6%). CONCLUSIONS: In settings where thymidine analogue mutations are less likely to be present, such as at start of first-line therapy or after extended treatment interruptions, combinations of TDF with other K65R-inducing components or with efavirenz or nevirapine may carry an enhanced risk of the emergence of K65R. The finding of a distinct mutational pattern selected by treatment with TDF and efavirenz suggests a potential fitness interaction between K65R and nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor-induced mutations.

Event-free survival at 24 months is a robust end point for disease-related outcome in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma treated with immunochemotherapy.

PURPOSE: Studies of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) are typically evaluated by using a time-to-event approach with relapse, re-treatment, and death commonly used as the events. We evaluated the timing and type of events in newly diagnosed DLBCL and compared patient outcome with reference population data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL treated with immunochemotherapy were prospectively enrolled onto the University of Iowa/Mayo Clinic Specialized Program of Research Excellence Molecular Epidemiology Resource (MER) and the North Central Cancer Treatment Group NCCTG-N0489 clinical trial from 2002 to 2009. Patient outcomes were evaluated at diagnosis and in the subsets of patients achieving event-free status at 12 months (EFS12) and 24 months (EFS24) from diagnosis. Overall survival was compared with age- and sex-matched population data. Results were replicated in an external validation cohort from the Groupe d'Etude des Lymphomes de l'Adulte (GELA) Lymphome Non Hodgkinien 2003 (LNH2003) program and a registry based in Lyon, France. RESULTS: In all, 767 patients with newly diagnosed DLBCL who had a median age of 63 years were enrolled onto the MER and NCCTG studies. At a median follow-up of 60 months (range, 8 to 116 months), 299 patients had an event and 210 patients had died. Patients achieving EFS24 had an overall survival equivalent to that of the age- and sex-matched general population (standardized mortality ratio [SMR], 1.18; P = .25). This result was confirmed in 820 patients from the GELA study and registry in Lyon (SMR, 1.09; P = .71). Simulation studies showed that EFS24 has comparable power to continuous EFS when evaluating clinical trials in DLBCL. CONCLUSION: Patients with DLBCL who achieve EFS24 have a subsequent overall survival equivalent to that of the age- and sex-matched general population. EFS24 will be useful in patient counseling and should be considered as an end point for future studies of newly diagnosed DLBCL.

[Pyramide de canons pris à l'ennemi au rond-point des Champs-Elysées, le 13 juillet 1919] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 54892

[Pyramide de canons pris à l'ennemi au rond-point des Champs-Elysées, le 13 juillet 1919] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 54891

[Pyramide de canons pris à l'ennemi au rond-point des Champs-Elysées, le 13 juillet 1919] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 54890

Pattern recognition of sleep in rodents using piezoelectric signals generated by gross body movements.

Current research on sleep using experimental animals is limited by the expense and time-consuming nature of traditional EEG/EMG recordings. We present here an alternative, noninvasive approach utilizing piezoelectric films configured as highly sensitive motion detectors. These film strips attached to the floor of the rodent cage produce an electrical output in direct proportion to the distortion of the material. During sleep, movement associated with breathing is the predominant gross body movement and, thus, output from the piezoelectric transducer provided an accurate respiratory trace during sleep. During wake, respiratory movements are masked by other motor activities. An automatic pattern recognition system was developed to identify periods of sleep and wake using the piezoelectric generated signal. Due to the complex and highly variable waveforms that result from subtle postural adjustments in the animals, traditional signal analysis techniques were not sufficient for accurate classification of sleep versus wake. Therefore, a novel pattern recognition algorithm was developed that successfully distinguished sleep from wake in approximately 95% of all epochs. This algorithm may have general utility for a variety of signals in biomedical and engineering applications. This automated system for monitoring sleep is noninvasive, inexpensive, and may be useful for large-scale sleep studies including genetic approaches towards understanding sleep and sleep disorders, and the rapid screening of the efficacy of sleep or wake promoting drugs.

[Pyramide de canons pris à l'ennemi au rond-point des Champs-Elysées, autour du 13 juillet 1919] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 54858

[Monument commémoratif de la victoire de 1915 à Arras, érigé au rond-point des Champs-Élysées] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 55021

[Monument commémoratif de la victoire de 1915 à Arras, érigé au rond-point des Champs-Élysées] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 55017