On the optimal capacity expansion of electric power systems

The analysis of investment in the electric power has been the subject of intensive research for many years. The efficient generation and distribution of electrical energy is a difficult task involving the operation of a complex network of facilities, often located over very large geographical regions. Electric power utilities have made use of an enormous range of mathematical models. Some models address time spans which last for a fraction of a second, such as those that deal with lightning strikes on transmission lines while at the other end of the scale there are models which address time horizons consisting of ten or twenty years; these usually involve long range planning issues. This thesis addresses the optimal long term capacity expansion of an interconnected power system. The aim of this study has been to derive a new, long term planning model which recognises the regional differences which exist for energy demand and which are present in the construction and operation of power plant and transmission line equipment. Perhaps the most innovative feature of the new model is the direct inclusion of regional energy demand curves in the nonlinear form. This results in a nonlinear capacity expansion model. After review of the relevant literature, the thesis first develops a model for the optimal operation of a power grid. This model directly incorporates regional demand curves. The model is a nonlinear programming problem containing both integer and continuous variables. A solution algorithm is developed which is based upon a resource decomposition scheme that separates the integer variables from the continuous ones. The decompostion of the operating problem leads to an interactive scheme which employs a mixed integer programming problem, known as the master, to generate trial operating configurations. The optimum operating conditions of each trial configuration is found using a smooth nonlinear programming model. The dual vector recovered from this model is subsequently used by the master to generate the next trial configuration. The solution algorithm progresses until lower and upper bounds converge. A range of numerical experiments are conducted and these experiments are included in the discussion. Using the operating model as a basis, a regional capacity expansion model is then developed. It determines the type, location and capacity of additional power plants and transmission lines, which are required to meet predicted electicity demands. A generalised resource decompostion scheme, similar to that used to solve the operating problem, is employed. The solution algorithm is used to solve a range of test problems and the results of these numerical experiments are reported. Finally, the expansion problem is applied to the Queensland electricity grid in Australia

Bayesian models for longitudinal data

Longitudinal data, where data are repeatedly observed or measured on a temporal basis of time or age provides the foundation of the analysis of processes which evolve over time, and these can be referred to as growth or trajectory models. One of the traditional ways of looking at growth models is to employ either linear or polynomial functional forms to model trajectory shape, and account for variation around an overall mean trend with the inclusion of random eects or individual variation on the functional shape parameters. The identification of distinct subgroups or sub-classes (latent classes) within these trajectory models which are not based on some pre-existing individual classification provides an important methodology with substantive implications. The identification of subgroups or classes has a wide application in the medical arena where responder/non-responder identification based on distinctly diering trajectories delivers further information for clinical processes. This thesis develops Bayesian statistical models and techniques for the identification of subgroups in the analysis of longitudinal data where the number of time intervals is limited. These models are then applied to a single case study which investigates the neuropsychological cognition for early stage breast cancer patients undergoing adjuvant chemotherapy treatment from the Cognition in Breast Cancer Study undertaken by the Wesley Research Institute of Brisbane, Queensland. Alternative formulations to the linear or polynomial approach are taken which use piecewise linear models with a single turning point, change-point or knot at a known time point and latent basis models for the non-linear trajectories found for the verbal memory domain of cognitive function before and after chemotherapy treatment. Hierarchical Bayesian random eects models are used as a starting point for the latent class modelling process and are extended with the incorporation of covariates in the trajectory profiles and as predictors of class membership. The Bayesian latent basis models enable the degree of recovery post-chemotherapy to be estimated for short and long-term followup occasions, and the distinct class trajectories assist in the identification of breast cancer patients who maybe at risk of long-term verbal memory impairment.

Fingerprint analysis using wavelet transform with application to compression and feature extraction

The main goal of this research is to design an efficient compression al~ gorithm for fingerprint images. The wavelet transform technique is the principal tool used to reduce interpixel redundancies and to obtain a parsimonious representation for these images. A specific fixed decomposition structure is designed to be used by the wavelet packet in order to save on the computation, transmission, and storage costs. This decomposition structure is based on analysis of information packing performance of several decompositions, two-dimensional power spectral density, effect of each frequency band on the reconstructed image, and the human visual sensitivities. This fixed structure is found to provide the "most" suitable representation for fingerprints, according to the chosen criteria. Different compression techniques are used for different subbands, based on their observed statistics. The decision is based on the effect of each subband on the reconstructed image according to the mean square criteria as well as the sensitivities in human vision. To design an efficient quantization algorithm, a precise model for distribution of the wavelet coefficients is developed. The model is based on the generalized Gaussian distribution. A least squares algorithm on a nonlinear function of the distribution model shape parameter is formulated to estimate the model parameters. A noise shaping bit allocation procedure is then used to assign the bit rate among subbands. To obtain high compression ratios, vector quantization is used. In this work, the lattice vector quantization (LVQ) is chosen because of its superior performance over other types of vector quantizers. The structure of a lattice quantizer is determined by its parameters known as truncation level and scaling factor. In lattice-based compression algorithms reported in the literature the lattice structure is commonly predetermined leading to a nonoptimized quantization approach. In this research, a new technique for determining the lattice parameters is proposed. In the lattice structure design, no assumption about the lattice parameters is made and no training and multi-quantizing is required. The design is based on minimizing the quantization distortion by adapting to the statistical characteristics of the source in each subimage. 11 Abstract Abstract Since LVQ is a multidimensional generalization of uniform quantizers, it produces minimum distortion for inputs with uniform distributions. In order to take advantage of the properties of LVQ and its fast implementation, while considering the i.i.d. nonuniform distribution of wavelet coefficients, the piecewise-uniform pyramid LVQ algorithm is proposed. The proposed algorithm quantizes almost all of source vectors without the need to project these on the lattice outermost shell, while it properly maintains a small codebook size. It also resolves the wedge region problem commonly encountered with sharply distributed random sources. These represent some of the drawbacks of the algorithm proposed by Barlaud [26). The proposed algorithm handles all types of lattices, not only the cubic lattices, as opposed to the algorithms developed by Fischer [29) and Jeong [42). Furthermore, no training and multiquantizing (to determine lattice parameters) is required, as opposed to Powell's algorithm [78). For coefficients with high-frequency content, the positive-negative mean algorithm is proposed to improve the resolution of reconstructed images. For coefficients with low-frequency content, a lossless predictive compression scheme is used to preserve the quality of reconstructed images. A method to reduce bit requirements of necessary side information is also introduced. Lossless entropy coding techniques are subsequently used to remove coding redundancy. The algorithms result in high quality reconstructed images with better compression ratios than other available algorithms. To evaluate the proposed algorithms their objective and subjective performance comparisons with other available techniques are presented. The quality of the reconstructed images is important for a reliable identification. Enhancement and feature extraction on the reconstructed images are also investigated in this research. A structural-based feature extraction algorithm is proposed in which the unique properties of fingerprint textures are used to enhance the images and improve the fidelity of their characteristic features. The ridges are extracted from enhanced grey-level foreground areas based on the local ridge dominant directions. The proposed ridge extraction algorithm, properly preserves the natural shape of grey-level ridges as well as precise locations of the features, as opposed to the ridge extraction algorithm in [81). Furthermore, it is fast and operates only on foreground regions, as opposed to the adaptive floating average thresholding process in [68). Spurious features are subsequently eliminated using the proposed post-processing scheme.

Obstacle-free range determination for rail track maintenance vehicles

Maintenance trains travel in convoy. In Australia, only the first train of the convoy pays attention to the track sig- nalization (the other convoy vehicles simply follow the preceding vehicle). Because of human errors, collisions can happen between the maintenance vehicles. Although an anti-collision system based on a laser distance meter is already in operation, the existing system has a limited range due to the curvature of the tracks. In this paper, we introduce an anti-collision system based on vision. The two main ideas are, (1) to warp the camera image into an image where the rails are parallel through a projective transform, and (2) to track the two rail curves simultaneously by evaluating small parallel segments. The performance of the system is demonstrated on an image dataset.

Soil carbon saturation : concept, evidence and evaluation

Current estimates of soil C storage potential are based on models or factors that assume linearity between C input levels and C stocks at steady-state, implying that SOC stocks could increase without limit as C input levels increase. However, some soils show little or no increase in steady-state SOC stock with increasing C input levels suggesting that SOC can become saturated with respect to C input. We used long-term field experiment data to assess alternative hypotheses of soil carbon storage by three simple models: a linear model (no saturation), a one-pool whole-soil C saturation model, and a two-pool mixed model with C saturation of a single C pool, but not the whole soil. The one-pool C saturation model best fit the combined data from 14 sites, four individual sites were best-fit with the linear model, and no sites were best fit by the mixed model. These results indicate that existing agricultural field experiments generally have too small a range in C input levels to show saturation behavior, and verify the accepted linear relationship between soil C and C input used to model SOM dynamics. However, all sites combined and the site with the widest range in C input levels were best fit with the C-saturation model. Nevertheless, the same site produced distinct effective stabilization capacity curves rather than an absolute C saturation level. We conclude that the saturation of soil C does occur and therefore the greatest efficiency in soil C sequestration will be in soils further from C saturation.

Component reliability estimations without field data

Maintenance activities in a large-scale engineering system are usually scheduled according to the lifetimes of various components in order to ensure the overall reliability of the system. Lifetimes of components can be deduced by the corresponding probability distributions with parameters estimated from past failure data. While failure data of the components is not always readily available, the engineers have to be content with the primitive information from the manufacturers only, such as the mean and standard deviation of lifetime, to plan for the maintenance activities. In this paper, the moment-based piecewise polynomial model (MPPM) are proposed to estimate the parameters of the reliability probability distribution of the products when only the mean and standard deviation of the product lifetime are known. This method employs a group of polynomial functions to estimate the two parameters of the Weibull Distribution according to the mathematical relationship between the shape parameter of two-parameters Weibull Distribution and the ratio of mean and standard deviation. Tests are carried out to evaluate the validity and accuracy of the proposed methods with discussions on its suitability of applications. The proposed method is particularly useful for reliability-critical systems, such as railway and power systems, in which the maintenance activities are scheduled according to the expected lifetimes of the system components.

Iron burning in pressurised oxygen under microgravity conditions

An investigation of cylindrical iron rods burning in pressurised oxygen under microgravity conditions is presented. It has been shown that, under similar experimental conditions, the melting rate of a burning, cylindrical iron rod is higher in microgravity than in normal gravity by a factor of 1.8 ± 0.3. This paper presents microanalysis of quenched samples obtained in a microgravity environment in a 2.0 s duration drop tower facility in Brisbane, Australia. These images indicate that the solid/liquid interface is highly convex in reduced gravity, compared to the planar geometry typically observed in normal gravity, which increases the contact area between liquid and solid phases by a factor of 1.7 ± 0.1. Thus, there is good agreement between the proportional increase in solid/liquid interface surface area and melting rate in microgravity. This indicates that the cause of the increased melting rates for cylindrical iron rods burning in microgravity is altered interfacial geometry at the solid/liquid interface.

The organic fraction of bubble-generated, accumulation mode Sea Spray Aerosol (SSA)

Recent studies have detected a dominant accumulation mode (~100 nm) in the Sea Spray Aerosol (SSA) number distribution. There is evidence to suggest that particles in this mode are composed primarily of organics. To investigate this hypothesis we conducted experiments on NaCl, artificial SSA and natural SSA particles with a Volatility-Hygroscopicity-Tandem-Differential-Mobility-Analyser (VH-TDMA). NaCl particles were atomiser generated and a bubble generator was constructed to produce artificial and natural SSA particles. Natural seawater samples for use in the bubble generator were collected from biologically active, terrestrially-affected coastal water in Moreton Bay, Australia. Differences in the VH-TDMA-measured volatility curves of artificial and natural SSA particles were used to investigate and quantify the organic fraction of natural SSA particles. Hygroscopic Growth Factor (HGF) data, also obtained by the VH-TDMA, were used to confirm the conclusions drawn from the volatility data. Both datasets indicated that the organic fraction of our natural SSA particles evaporated in the VH-TDMA over the temperature range 170–200°C. The organic volume fraction for 71–77 nm natural SSA particles was 8±6%. Organic volume fraction did not vary significantly with varying water residence time (40 secs to 24 hrs) in the bubble generator or SSA particle diameter in the range 38–173 nm. At room temperature we measured shape- and Kelvin-corrected HGF at 90% RH of 2.46±0.02 for NaCl, 2.35±0.02 for artifical SSA and 2.26±0.02 for natural SSA particles. Overall, these results suggest that the natural accumulation mode SSA particles produced in these experiments contained only a minor organic fraction, which had little effect on hygroscopic growth. Our measurement of 8±6% is an order of magnitude below two previous measurements of the organic fraction in SSA particles of comparable sizes. We stress that our results were obtained using coastal seawater and they can’t necessarily be applied on a regional or global ocean scale. Nevertheless, considering the order of magnitude discrepancy between this and previous studies, further research with independent measurement techniques and a variety of different seawaters is required to better quantify how much organic material is present in accumulation mode SSA.

Characterization of particle number concentrations and PM2.5 in a school : influence of outdoor air pollution on indoor air

Background, Aim and Scope The impact of air pollution on school children’s health is currently one of the key foci of international and national agencies. Of particular concern are ultrafine particles which are emitted in large quantities, contain large concentrations of toxins and are deposited deeply in the respiratory tract. Materials and methods In this study, an intensive sampling campaign of indoor and outdoor airborne particulate matter was carried out in a primary school in February 2006 to investigate indoor and outdoor particle number (PN) and mass concentrations (PM2.5), and particle size distribution, and to evaluate the influence of outdoor air pollution on the indoor air. Results For outdoor PN and PM2.5, early morning and late afternoon peaks were observed on weekdays, which are consistent with traffic rush hours, indicating the predominant effect of vehicular emissions. However, the temporal variations of outdoor PM2.5 and PN concentrations occasionally showed extremely high peaks, mainly due to human activities such as cigarette smoking and the operation of mower near the sampling site. The indoor PM2.5 level was mainly affected by the outdoor PM2.5 (r = 0.68, p<0.01), whereas the indoor PN concentration had some association with outdoor PN values (r = 0.66, p<0.01) even though the indoor PN concentration was occasionally influenced by indoor sources, such as cooking, cleaning and floor polishing activities. Correlation analysis indicated that the outdoor PM2.5 was inversely correlated with the indoor to outdoor PM2.5 ratio (I/O ratio) (r = -0.49, p<0.01), while the indoor PN had a weak correlation with the I/O ratio for PN (r = 0.34, p<0.01). Discussion and Conclusions The results showed that occupancy did not cause any major changes to the modal structure of particle number and size distribution, even though the I/O ratio was different for different size classes. The I/O curves had a maximum value for particles with diameters of 100 – 400 nm under both occupied and unoccupied scenarios, whereas no significant difference in I/O ratio for PM2.5 was observed between occupied and unoccupied conditions. Inspection of the size-resolved I/O ratios in the preschool centre and the classroom suggested that the I/O ratio in the preschool centre was the highest for accumulation mode particles at 600 nm after school hours, whereas the average I/O ratios of both nucleation mode and accumulation mode particles in the classroom were much lower than those of Aitken mode particles. Recommendations and Perspectives The findings obtained in this study are useful for epidemiological studies to estimate the total personal exposure of children, and to develop appropriate control strategies for minimizing the adverse health effects on school children.

Manifolds, patterns and transitions in a creative life

Using sculpture and drawing as my primary methods of investigation, this research explores ways of shifting the emphasis of my creative visual arts practice from object to process whilst still maintaining a primacy of material outcomes. My motivation was to locate ways of developing a sustained practice shaped as much by new works, as by a creative flow between works. I imagined a practice where a logic of structure within discrete forms and a logic of the broader practice might be developed as mutually informed processes. Using basic structural components of multiple wooden curves and linear modes of deployment – in both sculptures and drawings – I have identified both emergence theory and the image of rhizomic growth (Deleuze and Guattari, 1987) as theoretically integral to this imagining of a creative practice, both in terms of critiquing and developing works. Whilst I adopt a formalist approach for this exegesis, the emergence and rhizome models allow it to work as a critique of movement, of becoming and changing, rather than merely a formalism of static structure. In these models, therefore, I have identified a formal approach that can be applied not only to objects, but to practice over time. The thorough reading and application of these ontological models (emergence and rhizome) to visual arts practice, in terms of processes, objects and changes, is the primary contribution of this thesis. The works that form the major component of the research develop, reflect and embody these notions of movement and change.

Contribution of transmembrane domain V amino acids to β1l-adrenoceptor activity and affinity

Introduction. There are two binding sites on the β1-adrenoceptor (AR), β1H and β1L corresponding to high and low affinity binding sites respectively, which can be activated to cause cardiostimulation. Some β-blockers that block β1AR and β2ARs can activate β1LARs at higher concentrations than those required to cause blockade. The β2AR does not form a corresponding low affinity binding site and therefore we postulated that heterologous amino acids are responsible for the formation of β1LAR. Aim. To investigate whether heterologous amino acids of transmembrane domain V (TMDV) of β1AR and β2ARs contribute to β1LAR. Methods. β1ARs, β2ARs and mutant β1ARs containing all (β1(β2TMDV)AR) or single amino acids of TMDV of the β2AR were prepared and stably expressed in Chinese Hamster Ovary cells. Concentration-effect curves for cyclicAMP accumulation were carried out for (-)-CGP12177 in the absence or presence of (-)-bupranolol. Results. The potencies (pEC50) of (-)-CGP12177 were β2AR (9.24 ± 0.14, n = 5), β1(V230I)AR (9.07 ± 0.07, n = 10), β1(β2TMDV)AR (8.86 ± 0.10, n = 15), β1(R222Q)AR (8.09 ± 0.29, n = 6), β1AR (8.00 ± 0.11, n = 11). The affinities (pKB) of (-)-bupranolol were β2AR (9.82 ± 0.52, n = 5), β1(V230I)AR (7.64 ± 0.12, n = 8), β1(β2TMV)AR (8.06 ± 0.17, n = 8), β1(R222Q)AR (7.33 ± 0.23, n = 5), β1AR (7.23 ± 0.23, n = 5). Discussion. The potency of (-)-CGP12177 was higher at β2AR than at β1AR consistent with activation through a low affinity site at the β1AR (β1LAR). The presence of V230 in β1AR accounted for the lower potency of (-)-CGP 12177. The affinity of (-)-bupranolol was lower at β1AR compared to β2AR. The presence of V230 in β1AR accounted in part for the lower affinity. In conclusion TMDV of the β1AR contributes in part to the low affinity binding site of β1AR.

Contribution of transmembrane domain V amino acids to β1l-adrenoceptor activity and affinity

There are two binding sites on the β1-adrenoceptor (AR), β1H and β1L corresponding to high and low affinity binding sites respectively, which can be activated to cause cardiostimulation (reviewed Kaumann and Molenaar, 2008). Some β-blockers that block β1AR and β2ARs can activate β1LARs at higher concentrations than those required to cause blockade. The β2AR does not form a corresponding low affinity binding site (Baker et al 2002) and therefore we postulated that heterologous amino acids are responsible for the formation of β1LAR. Our aim was to investigate whether heterologous amino acids of transmembrane domain V (TMDV) of β1AR and β2ARs contribute to β1LAR. β1ARs, β2ARs and mutant β1ARs containing all (β1(β2TMDV)AR) or single amino acids of TMDV of the β2AR were prepared and stably expressed in Chinese Hamster Ovary cells. Concentration-effect curves for cyclicAMP accumulation were carried out for (-)-CGP12177 or (-)-isoprenaline in the absence or presence of (-)-bupranolol. _______________________________________________________________________ (-)-CGP 12177 (-)-Bupranolol affinity (pKB) pEC50 vs (-)-CGP 12177 vs (-)-isoprenaline _______________________________________________________________________ β1AR 8.00 ± 0.11 (11) 7.23 ± 0.23 (5) 9.52 ± 0.28 (5) β2AR (high density) 9.24 ± 0.14 (5) 9.82 ± 0.52 (8) xPaulxxxxxxx β2AR (low density) no effect β1(β2TMV)AR 8.86 ± 0.10 (15) 8.06 ± 0.17 (8) 9.08 ± 0.22 (6) β1(V230I)AR 9.07 ± 0.07 (10) 7.64 ± 0.12 (8) 9.36 ± 0.28 (9) β1(R222Q)AR 8.09 ± 0.29 (6) 7.33 ± 0.23 (5) 9.36 ± 0.08 (6) β1(V230A)AR 7.59 ± 0.09 (6) 7.32 ± 0.24 (4) 8.62 ± 0.18 (5) _______________________________________________________________________ The potency of (-)-CGP12177 was higher at β2AR than at β1AR consistent with activation through a low affinity site at the β1AR (β1LAR) but not β2AR. The presence of V230 in β1AR accounted for the lower potency of (-)-CGP 12177. The affinity of (-)-bupranolol at β1AR and mutants was higher when determined with (-)-isoprenaline than with (-)-CGP 12177. The affinity of (-)-bupranolol determined against (-)-CGP 12177 was lower at β1AR compared to β2AR. The presence of V230 in β1AR accounted in part for the lower affinity. In conclusion V230 of the β1AR contributes in part to the low affinity binding site of β1AR. Baker JG, Hall IP, Hill SJ (2002). Pharmacological characterization of CGP12177 at the human β2-adrenoceptor. Br J Pharmacol 137, 400−408 Kaumann AJ, Molenaar P (2008) The low-affinity site of the β1-adrenoceptor and its relevance to cardiovascular pharmacology. Pharmacol Ther 118, 303-336

Theoretical analysis of serrated chip formation based on ideal models in high speed cutting

In this paper, two ideal formation models of serrated chips, the symmetric formation model and the unilateral right-angle formation model, have been established for the first time. Based on the ideal models and related adiabatic shear theory of serrated chip formation, the theoretical relationship among average tooth pitch, average tooth height and chip thickness are obtained. Further, the theoretical relation of the passivation coefficient of chip's sawtooth and the chip thickness compression ratio is deduced as well. The comparison between these theoretical prediction curves and experimental data shows good agreement, which well validates the robustness of the ideal chip formation models and the correctness of the theoretical deducing analysis. The proposed ideal models may have provided a simple but effective theoretical basis for succeeding research on serrated chip morphology. Finally, the influences of most principal cutting factors on serrated chip formation are discussed on the basis of a series of finite element simulation results for practical advices of controlling serrated chips in engineering application.

Atomistic numerical investigation of single-crystal copper nanowire with surface defects

Based on the embedded atom method (EAM), a molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is performed to study the single-crystal copper nanowire with surface defects through tension. The tension simulations for nanowire without defect are first carried out under different temperatures, strain rates and time steps and then surface defect effects for nanowire are investigated. The stress-strain curves obtained by the MD simulations of various strain rates show a rate below 1 x 10(9) s-1 will exert less effect on the yield strength and yield point, and the Young's modulus is independent of strain rate. a time step below 5 fs is recommend for the atomic model during the MD simulation. It is observed that high temperature leads to low Young's modulus, as well as the yield strength. The surface defects on nanowires are systematically studied in considering different defect orientations. It is found that the surface defect serves as a dislocation source, and the yield strength shows 34.20% decresse with 45 degree surface defect. Both yield strength and yield point are significantly influenced by the surface defects, except the Young's modulus.