Biased representation of disturbance rates in the roadside sampling frame in boreal forests: implications for monitoring design

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is the principal source of data to inform researchers about the status of and trend for boreal forest birds. Unfortunately, little BBS coverage is available in the boreal forest, where increasing concern over the status of species breeding there has increased interest in northward expansion of the BBS. However, high disturbance rates in the boreal forest may complicate roadside monitoring. If the roadside sampling frame does not capture variation in disturbance rates because of either road placement or the use of roads for resource extraction, biased trend estimates might result. In this study, we examined roadside bias in the proportional representation of habitat disturbance via spatial data on forest “loss,” forest fires, and anthropogenic disturbance. In each of 455 BBS routes, the area disturbed within multiple buffers away from the road was calculated and compared against the area disturbed in degree blocks and BBS strata. We found a nonlinear relationship between bias and distance from the road, suggesting forest loss and forest fires were underrepresented below 75 and 100 m, respectively. In contrast, anthropogenic disturbance was overrepresented at distances below 500 m and underrepresented thereafter. After accounting for distance from road, BBS routes were reasonably representative of the degree blocks they were within, with only a few strata showing biased representation. In general, anthropogenic disturbance is overrepresented in southern strata, and forest fires are underrepresented in almost all strata. Similar biases exist when comparing the entire road network and the subset sampled by BBS routes against the amount of disturbance within BBS strata; however, the magnitude of biases differed. Based on our results, we recommend that spatial stratification and rotating panel designs be used to spread limited BBS and off-road sampling effort in an unbiased fashion and that new BBS routes be established where sufficient road coverage exists.

Digitisation, representation, and formalisation - Digital libraries of mathematics

One of the main tasks of the mathematical knowledge management community must surely be to enhance access to mathematics on digital systems. In this paper we present a spectrum of approaches to solving the various problems inherent in this task, arguing that a variety of approaches is both necessary and useful. The main ideas presented are about the differences between digitised mathematics, digitally represented mathematics and formalised mathematics. Each has its part to play in managing mathematical information in a connected world. Digitised material is that which is embodied in a computer file, accessible and displayable locally or globally. Represented material is digital material in which there is some structure (usually syntactic in nature) which maps to the mathematics contained in the digitised information. Formalised material is that in which both the syntax and semantics of the represented material, is automatically accessible. Given the range of mathematical information to which access is desired, and the limited resources available for managing that information, we must ensure that these resources are applied to digitise, form representations of or formalise, existing and new mathematical information in such a way as to extract the most benefit from the least expenditure of resources. We also analyse some of the various social and legal issues which surround the practical tasks.

Quantification of the probability of containment failure caused by an in-vessel steam explosion for the Sizewell B PWR

AEA Technology has provided an assessment of the probability of α-mode containment failure for the Sizewell B PWR. After a preliminary review of the methodologies available it was decided to use the probabilistic approach described in the paper, based on an extension of the methodology developed by Theofanous et al. (Nucl. Sci. Eng. 97 (1987) 259–325). The input to the assessment is 12 probability distributions; the bases for the quantification of these distributions are discussed. The α-mode assessment performed for the Sizewell B PWR has demonstrated the practicality of the event-tree method with input data represented by probability distributions. The assessment itself has drawn attention to a number of topics, which may be plant and sequence dependent, and has indicated the importance of melt relocation scenarios. The α-mode failure probability following an accident that leads to core melt relocation to the lower head for the Sizewell B PWR has been assessed as a few parts in 10 000, on the basis of current information. This assessment has been the first to consider elevated pressures (6 MPa and 15 MPa) besides atmospheric pressure, but the results suggest only a modest sensitivity to system pressure.

Can wavelets improve the representation of forecast error covariances in variational data assimilation?

Two wavelet-based control variable transform schemes are described and are used to model some important features of forecast error statistics for use in variational data assimilation. The first is a conventional wavelet scheme and the other is an approximation of it. Their ability to capture the position and scale-dependent aspects of covariance structures is tested in a two-dimensional latitude-height context. This is done by comparing the covariance structures implied by the wavelet schemes with those found from the explicit forecast error covariance matrix, and with a non-wavelet- based covariance scheme used currently in an operational assimilation scheme. Qualitatively, the wavelet-based schemes show potential at modeling forecast error statistics well without giving preference to either position or scale-dependent aspects. The degree of spectral representation can be controlled by changing the number of spectral bands in the schemes, and the least number of bands that achieves adequate results is found for the model domain used. Evidence is found of a trade-off between the localization of features in positional and spectral spaces when the number of bands is changed. By examining implied covariance diagnostics, the wavelet-based schemes are found, on the whole, to give results that are closer to diagnostics found from the explicit matrix than from the nonwavelet scheme. Even though the nature of the covariances has the right qualities in spectral space, variances are found to be too low at some wavenumbers and vertical correlation length scales are found to be too long at most scales. The wavelet schemes are found to be good at resolving variations in position and scale-dependent horizontal length scales, although the length scales reproduced are usually too short. The second of the wavelet-based schemes is often found to be better than the first in some important respects, but, unlike the first, it has no exact inverse transform.

The representation of conditional expectations of non-Gaussian noise

For Wiener spaces conditional expectations and $L^{2}$-martingales w.r.t. the natural filtration have a natural representation in terms of chaos expansion. In this note an extension to larger classes of processes is discussed. In particular, it is pointed out that orthogonality of the chaos expansion is not required.

Understanding the processes governing climate variability and change, climate predictability and the probability of extreme events

The purpose of Research Theme 4 (RT4) was to advance understanding of the basic science issues at the heart of the ENSEMBLES project, focusing on the key processes that govern climate variability and change, and that determine the predictability of climate. Particular attention was given to understanding linear and non-linear feedbacks that may lead to climate surprises,and to understanding the factors that govern the probability of extreme events. Improved understanding of these issues will contribute significantly to the quantification and reduction of uncertainty in seasonal to decadal predictions and projections of climate change. RT4 exploited the ENSEMBLES integrations (stream 1) performed in RT2A as well as undertaking its own experimentation to explore key processes within the climate system. It was working at the cutting edge of problems related to climate feedbacks, the interaction between climate variability and climate change � especially how climate change pertains to extreme events, and the predictability of the climate system on a range of time-scales. The statisticalmethodologies developed for extreme event analysis are new and state-of-the-art. The RT4-coordinated experiments, which have been conducted with six different atmospheric GCMs forced by common timeinvariant sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice fields (removing some sources of inter-model variability), are designed to help to understand model uncertainty (rather than scenario or initial condition uncertainty) in predictions of the response to greenhouse-gas-induced warming. RT4 links strongly with RT5 on the evaluation of the ENSEMBLES prediction system and feeds back its results to RT1 to guide improvements in the Earth system models and, through its research on predictability, to steer the development of methods for initialising the ensembles

View-based approaches to spatial representation in human vision

In an immersive virtual environment, observers fail to notice the expansion of a room around them and consequently make gross errors when comparing the size of objects. This result is difficult to explain if the visual system continuously generates a 3-D model of the scene based on known baseline information from interocular separation or proprioception as the observer walks. An alternative is that observers use view-based methods to guide their actions and to represent the spatial layout of the scene. In this case, they may have an expectation of the images they will receive but be insensitive to the rate at which images arrive as they walk. We describe the way in which the eye movement strategy of animals simplifies motion processing if their goal is to move towards a desired image and discuss dorsal and ventral stream processing of moving images in that context. Although many questions about view-based approaches to scene representation remain unanswered, the solutions are likely to be highly relevant to understanding biological 3-D vision.

Devolution and the political representation of business interests in the UK

The devolution of political power in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and the developing regional agenda in England are widely read as a significant reconfiguration of the institutions and scales of economic governance. The process is furthest developed in Scotland while Wales and Northern Ireland, in their own distinct ways, provide intermediate cases. Devolution is least developed in England where regional political identities are generally weak and the historical legacy of regional institutions is limited. Within the overall context of devolution government policy has continued to emphasize partnership forms of. governance. Accordingly, the political representation of business interests has a particular salience in the new arrangements. This paper reports on findings from a study designed to examine the relationship between devolution and changes in the political representation of business interests in the territories and regions of the UK. It highlights a number of changes in the nature and extent of business representation. While some of these are significant the evidence suggests that they fail to mark a fundamental shift in the institutional foundation for sub-national business interest representation in the UK. Indeed the political geography of business representation remains dominated by an overarching centralism that is likely to provide a significant check on the further devolution of political power and democratic authority. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The social relations of business representation and devolved governance in the United Kingdom

The reform of regional governance in the United Kingdom has been, in part, premised on the notion that regions provide new territories of action in which cooperative networks between business communities and state-agencies can be established. Promoting business interests is seen as one mechanism for enhancing the economic competitiveness and performance of 'laggard' regions. Yet, within this context of change, business agendas and capacities are often assumed to exist 'out there, as a resource waiting to be tapped by state institutions. There is little recognition that business organisations' involvement in networks of governance owes much to historical patterns and practices of business representation, to the types of activities that exist within the business sector, and to interpretations of their own role and position within wider policymaking and implementation networks. This paper, drawing on a study of business agendas in post-devolution Scotland, demonstrates that in practice business agendas are highly complex. Their formation in any particular place depends on the actions of reflexive agents, whose perspectives and capacities are shaped by the social, economic, and political contexts within which they are operating. As such, any understanding of business agendas needs to identify the social relations of business as a whole, rather than assuming away such complexities.

Devolution and the political representation of business interests in the UK

The devolution of political power in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and the developing regional agenda in England are widely read as a significant reconfiguration of the institutions and scales of economic governance. The process is furthest developed in Scotland while Wales and Northern Ireland, in their own distinct ways, provide intermediate cases. Devolution is least developed in England where regional political identities are generally weak and the historical legacy of regional institutions is limited. Within the overall context of devolution government policy has continued to emphasize partnership forms of. governance. Accordingly, the political representation of business interests has a particular salience in the new arrangements. This paper reports on findings from a study designed to examine the relationship between devolution and changes in the political representation of business interests in the territories and regions of the UK. It highlights a number of changes in the nature and extent of business representation. While some of these are significant the evidence suggests that they fail to mark a fundamental shift in the institutional foundation for sub-national business interest representation in the UK. Indeed the political geography of business representation remains dominated by an overarching centralism that is likely to provide a significant check on the further devolution of political power and democratic authority. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the user knowledge by belief networks

This paper describes the user modeling component of EPIAIM, a consultation system for data analysis in epidemiology. The component is aimed at representing knowledge of concepts in the domain, so that their explanations can be adapted to user needs. The first part of the paper describes two studies aimed at analysing user requirements. The first one is a questionnaire study which examines the respondents' familiarity with concepts. The second one is an analysis of concept descriptions in textbooks and from expert epidemiologists, which examines how discourse strategies are tailored to the level of experience of the expected audience. The second part of the paper describes how the results of these studies have been used to design the user modeling component of EPIAIM. This module works in a two-step approach. In the first step, a few trigger questions allow the activation of a stereotype that includes a "body" and an "inference component". The body is the representation of the body of knowledge that a class of users is expected to know, along with the probability that the knowledge is known. In the inference component, the learning process of concepts is represented as a belief network. Hence, in the second step the belief network is used to refine the initial default information in the stereotype's body. This is done by asking a few questions on those concepts where it is uncertain whether or not they are known to the user, and propagating this new evidence to revise the whole situation. The system has been implemented on a workstation under UNIX. An example of functioning is presented, and advantages and limitations of the approach are discussed.