Two-sided learning in new keynesian models: dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economy have asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. We assume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct for different sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model of the economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularly with respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of the variables in the model in a signifficant way. Our simulations do not converge to a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source that invalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identify a novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communication can be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified

Abundance of Lutzomyia longipalpis in urban households as risk factor of transmission of visceral leishmaniasis

Urban occurrence of human and canine visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is linked to households with characteristics conducive to the presence of sand flies. This study proposes an ad hoc classification of households according to the environmental characteristics of receptivity to phlebotominae and an entomological study to validate the proposal. Here we describe the phlebotominae population found in intra- and peridomiciliary environments and analyse the spatiotemporal distribution of the VL vector Lutzomyia longipalpis of households receptive to VL. In the region, 153 households were classified into levels of receptivity to VL followed by entomological surveys in 40 of those properties. Kruskal-Wallis verified the relationship between the households’ classification and sand fly abundance and Kernel analysis evaluated L. longipalpis spatial distribution: of the 740 sand flies were captured, 91% were L. longipalpis; 82% were found peridomiciliary whilst the remaining 18% were found intradomiciliary. No statistically significant association was found between sandflies and households levels. L. longipalpis counts were concentrated in areas of high vulnerability and some specific households were responsible for the persistence of the infestation. L. longipalpis prevails over other sand fly species for urban VL transmission. The entomological study may help target the surveillance and vector control strategies to domiciles initiating and/or maintaining VL outbreaks.

Continuity and change in the gender segregation of the medical profession in Britain and France

It is a well established fact that the entry of women into higher-level professional occupations has not resulted in their equal distribution within these occupations. Indeed, the emergence and persistence of horizontal and vertical gender segregation within the professions has been at the heart of the development of a range of alternative theoretical perspectives on both the "feminisation process" and the future of the "professions"more generally. Through an in-depth comparative analysis of the recent changes in the organisation and administration of the medical profession in Britain and France, this paper draws upon statistical data and biographical interviews with male and female general practitioners (GPs) in both countries in order to discuss and review a variety of approaches that have been adopted to explain and analyse the "eminisation" process of higher-level professions. Our conclusions review the theoretical debates in the light of the evidence we have presented. It is argued that, despite important elements of continuity in respect of gendered occupational structuring in both countries, national variations in both professional and domestic gendered architectures lead to different outcomes as far as the extent and patterns of internal occupational segregation are concerned. Both female and male doctors are currently seeking - with some effect - to resist thepressures of medicine on family life.

Sequential analysis of trans-SNARE formation in intracellular membrane fusion.

SNARE complexes are required for membrane fusion in the endomembrane system. They contain coiled-coil bundles of four helices, three (Q(a), Q(b), and Q(c)) from target (t)-SNAREs and one (R) from the vesicular (v)-SNARE. NSF/Sec18 disrupts these cis-SNARE complexes, allowing reassembly of their subunits into trans-SNARE complexes and subsequent fusion. Studying these reactions in native yeast vacuoles, we found that NSF/Sec18 activates the vacuolar cis-SNARE complex by selectively displacing the vacuolar Q(a) SNARE, leaving behind a Q(bc)R subcomplex. This subcomplex serves as an acceptor for a Q(a) SNARE from the opposite membrane, leading to Q(a)-Q(bc)R trans-complexes. Activity tests of vacuoles with diagnostic distributions of inactivating mutations over the two fusion partners confirm that this distribution accounts for a major share of the fusion activity. The persistence of the Q(bc)R cis-complex and the formation of the Q(a)-Q(bc)R trans-complex are both sensitive to the Rab-GTPase inhibitor, GDI, and to mutations in the vacuolar tether complex, HOPS (HOmotypic fusion and vacuolar Protein Sorting complex). This suggests that the vacuolar Rab-GTPase, Ypt7, and HOPS restrict cis-SNARE disassembly and thereby bias trans-SNARE assembly into a preferred topology.

MyFrameUOC : Disseny i implementació d'un framework de persistència

Disseny i implementació d'un framework de persistència anomenat MyFrameUOC que facilita i agilitza la implementació de la capa d'administració de dades de les aplicacions J2EE.

Behavioral aspects of investment fund's markets: are good managers lucky or skilled?

It is generally accepted that financial markets are efficient in the long run a lthough there may be some deviations in the short run. It is also accepted that a good portfolio manager is the one who beats the market persistently along time, this type of manager could not exist if markets were perfectly efficient According to this in a pure efficient market we should find that managers know that they can not beat the market so they would undertake only pure passive management strategies. Assuming a certain degree of inefficiency in the short run, a market may show some managers who tr y to beat the market by undertaking active strategies. From Fama’s efficient markets theory we can state that these active managers may beat the market occasionally although they will not be able to enhance significantly their performance in the long run. On the other hand, in an inefficient market it would be expected to find a higher level of activity related with the higher probability of beating the market. In this paper we follow two objectives: first, we set a basis to analyse the level of efficiency in an asset invest- ment funds market by measuring performance, strategies activity and it’s persistence for a certain group of funds during the period of study. Second, we analyse individual performance persistence in order to determine the existence of skilled managers. The CAPM model is taken as theoretical background and the use of the Sharpe’s ratio as a suitable performance measure in a limited information environment leads to a group performance measurement proposal. The empiri- cal study takes quarterly data from 1999-2007 period, for the whole population of the Spanish asset investment funds market, provided by the CNMV (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores). This period of study has been chosen to ensure a wide enough range of efficient market observation so it would allow us to set a proper basis to compare with the following period. As a result we develop a model that allows us to measure efficiency in a given asset mutual funds market, based on the level of strategy’s activity undertaken by managers. We also observe persistence in individual performance for a certain group of funds

Combined laparoscopic-endoscopic method using an omental plug for therapy of gastroduodenal ulcer perforation.

BACKGROUND: Laparoscopic techniques have been proposed as an alternative to open surgery for therapy of peptic ulcer perforation. They provide better postoperative comfort and absence of parietal complications, but leakage occurs in 5% of cases. We describe a new method combining laparoscopy and endoluminal endoscopy, designed to ensure complete closure of the perforation. METHODS: Six patients with anterior ulcer perforations (4 duodenal, 2 gastric) underwent a concomitant laparoscopy and endoluminal endoscopy with closure of the orifice by an omental plug attracted into the digestive tract. RESULTS: All perforations were sealed. The mean operating time was 72 minutes. The mean hospital stay was 5.5 days. There was no morbidity and no mortality. At the 30-day evaluation all ulcers but one (due to Helicobacter pylori persistence) were healed. CONCLUSIONS: This method is safe and effective. Its advantages compared with open surgery or laparoscopic patching as well as its cost-effectiveness should be studied in prospective randomized trials.

Public health value of fixed-dose combinations in hypertension.

It is well documented that reducing blood pressure (BP) in hypertensive individuals reduces the risk of cardiovascular (CV) events. Despite this, many patients with hypertension remain untreated or inadequately treated, and fail to reach the recommended BP goals. Suboptimal BP control, whilst arising from multiple causes, is often due to poor patient compliance and/or persistence, and results in a significant health and economic burden on society. The use of fixed-dose combinations (FDCs) for the treatment of hypertension has the potential to increase patient compliance and persistence. When compared with antihypertensive monotherapies, FDCs may also offer equivalent or better efficacy, and the same or improved tolerability. As a result, FDCs have the potential to reduce both the CV event rates and the non-drug healthcare costs associated with hypertension. When FDCs are adopted for the treatment of hypertension, issues relating to copayment, formulary restrictions and therapeutic reference pricing must be addressed.

Assessing rapid evolution in a changing environment.

Climate change poses a serious threat to species persistence. Effective modelling of evolutionary responses to rapid climate change is therefore essential. In this review we examine recent advances in phylogenetic comparative methods, techniques normally used to study adaptation over long periods, which allow them to be applied to the study of adaptation over shorter time scales. This increased applicability is largely due to the emergence of more flexible models of character evolution and the parallel development of molecular technologies that can be used to assess adaptive variation at loci scattered across the genome. The merging of phylogenetic and population genetic approaches to the study of adaptation has significant potential to advance our understanding of rapid responses to environmental change.

Protective Efficacy of Individual CD8+ T Cell Specificities in Chronic Viral Infection.

Specific CD8(+) T cells (CTLs) play an important role in resolving protracted infection with hepatitis B and C virus in humans and lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) in mice. The contribution of individual CTL specificities to chronic virus control, as well as epitope-specific patterns in timing and persistence of antiviral selection pressure, remain, however, incompletely defined. To monitor and characterize the antiviral efficacy of individual CTL specificities throughout the course of chronic infection, we coinoculated mice with a mixture of wild-type LCMV and genetically engineered CTL epitope-deficient mutant virus. A quantitative longitudinal assessment of viral competition revealed that mice continuously exerted CTL selection pressure on the persisting virus population. The timing of selection pressure characterized individual epitope specificities, and its magnitude varied considerably between individual mice. This longitudinal assessment of "antiviral efficacy" provides a novel parameter to characterize CTL responses in chronic viral infection. It demonstrates remarkable perseverance of all antiviral CTL specificities studied, thus raising hope for therapeutic vaccination in the treatment of persistent viral diseases.

Priors about observables in vector autoregressions

Standard practice in Bayesian VARs is to formulate priors on the autoregressive parameters, but economists and policy makers actually have priors about the behavior of observable variables. We show how this kind of prior can be used in a VAR under strict probability theory principles. We state the inverse problem to be solved and we propose a numerical algorithm that works well in practical situations with a very large number of parameters. We prove various convergence theorems for the algorithm. As an application, we first show that the results in Christiano et al. (1999) are very sensitive to the introduction of various priors that are widely used. These priors turn out to be associated with undesirable priors on observables. But an empirical prior on observables helps clarify the relevance of these estimates: we find much higher persistence of output responses to monetary policy shocks than the one reported in Christiano et al. (1999) and a significantly larger total effect.

A fractionally integrated approach to monetary policy and inflation dynamics

This paper relaxes the standard I(0) and I(1) assumptions typically stated in the monetary VAR literature by considering a richer framework that encompasses the previous two processes as well as other fractionally integrated possibilities. First, a timevarying multivariate spectrum is estimated for post WWII US data. Then, a structural fractionally integrated VAR (VARFIMA) is fitted to each of the resulting time dependent spectra. In this way, both the coefficients of the VAR and the innovation variances are allowed to evolve freely. The model is employed to analyze inflation persistence and to evaluate the stance of US monetary policy. Our findings indicate a strong decline in the innovation variances during the great disinflation, consistent with the view that the good performance of the economy during the 80’s and 90’s is in part a tale of good luck. However, we also find evidence of a decline in inflation persistence together with a stronger monetary response to inflation during the same period. This last result suggests that the Fed may still play a role in accounting for the observed differences in the US inflation history. Finally, we conclude that previous evidence against drifting coefficients could be an artifact of parameter restriction towards the stationary region. Keywords: monetary policy, inflation persistence, fractional integration, timevarying coefficients, VARFIMA. JEL Classification: E52, C32

Evolutionary patterns of MHC class II B in owls and their implications for the understanding of avian MHC evolution

Owing to its special mode of evolution and central role in the adaptive immune system, the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) has become the focus of diverse disciplines such as immunology, evolutionary ecology, and molecular evolution. MHC evolution has been studied extensively in diverse vertebrate lineages over the last few decades, and it has been suggested that birds differ from the established mammalian norm. Mammalian MHC genes evolve independently, and duplication history (i.e., orthology) can usually be traced back within lineages. In birds, this has been observed in only 3 pairs of closely related species. Here we report strong evidence for the persistence of orthology of MHC genes throughout an entire avian order. Phylogenetic reconstructions of MHC class II B genes in 14 species of owls trace back orthology over tens of thousands of years in exon 3. Moreover, exon 2 sequences from several species show closer relationships than sequences within species, resembling transspecies evolution typically observed in mammals. Thus, although previous studies suggested that long-term evolutionary dynamics of the avian MHC was characterized by high rates of concerted evolution, resulting in rapid masking of orthology, our results question the generality of this conclusion. The owl MHC thus opens new perspectives for a more comprehensive understanding of avian MHC evolution.

Disseny i implementació d'un framework de persistència

El present PFC requereix l'anàlisi i desenvolupament d'un conjunt de components que simplifiquin i agilitzin el desenvolupament de la capa de persistència en aplicacions multicapa en entorn JEE.

Neutrophils and TNF: two key players in the immune response induced by "Leishmania major" infection

Summary Resolution of the inflammation is as important as its induction. In this thesis, we investigated the contributions of two prominent factors involved in inflammation, Tumour Necrosis Factor (TNF) and neutrophils. We studied their role in the resolution óf the inflammatory lesion induced by the infection with the protozoan parasite Leishmania major. In mice susceptible to infection with L. major, unhealing lesions are characterized by an elevated number and sustained presence of inflammatory neutrophils in the infected tissue, illustrating an acute inflammatory process. In contrast, mice from resistant strains, which resolve their lesions, can control the presence of neutrophils at the site of infection. Neutrophil persistence in the infected tissue may result from several events including an increased survival of neutrophils mediated by factors produced by the pathogen or the microenvironment. Following infection with L. major, the cellular composition of the inflammatory lesion differs significantly between susceptible and resistant mice and a higher proportion of macrophages is present in the lesions of resistant strains. In an attempt to clarify the factors involved in neutrophil persistence, we investigated the mechanisms modulating neutrophil cell death. We demonstrated that macrophages could induce neutrophil apoptosis in a process involving TNF. TNF is an essential cytokine with pro- and anti-inflammatory properties, which is expressed as a transmembrane protein that can be cleaved releasing the secreted form. Our data show the essential role of the transmembrane form of TNF (mTNF) in the induction of neutrophil apoptosis by macrophages, revealing macrophages and mTNF as important regulators of neutrophil apoptosis. TNF is critical in the resolution of the inflammatory lesion induced by L. major infection, and in L. major resistant strains its absence results in increased swelling of the lesions. We investigated the contribution of mTNF in the outcome of L. major infection. Our data demonstrate that following infection with L. major, mTNF is sufficient to support the resolution of the inflammatory lesion and optimal parasite killing. In addition, we show that the presence of mTNF is essential to induce neutrophil clearance in the infected tissue. While the persistence of neutrophils is deleterious for the host, we could demonstrate an early anti-inflammatory role of neutrophils. Altogether, this study demonstrates the importance of mTNF in the induction of neutrophil apoptosis, a process involved in the resolution of the inflammatory lesion induced by L. major infection. Résumé La résolution de l'inflammation est toute aussi importante que son initiation. Durant ce travail de thèse, nous avons étudié les contributions de deux facteurs importants impliqués dans l'inflammation, le TNF (Facteur Nécrosant des Tumeurs) et les neutrophiles, dans la résolution de la lésion inflammatoire induite par l'infection avec le parasite protozoaire Leishmania major. Chez les souris sensibles à l'infection avec L. major, des lésions importantes qui ne guérissent pas se développent ; celles-ci sont caractérisées par un nombre élevé et une présence soutenue de neutrophiles dans les tissus infectés, ce qui illustre un processus inflammatoire aigu. Au contraire, les souris résistantes à l'infection qui guérissent leurs lésions, sont capables de contrôler la présence des neutrophiles au site d'infection. La persistance des neutrophiles dans la lésion inflammatoire peut être la conséquence de plusieurs événements, dont une augmentation de la survie des neutrophiles induite par des facteurs produits par le pathogène ou le micro-environnement. Suite à l'infection avec L. major, la composition cellulaire de la lésion inflammatoire est significativement différente entre les souris sensibles et résistantes à l'infection, et une plus grande proportion de macrophages est présente dans les lésions des souris résistantes. Dans l'objectif de clarifier les facteurs impliqués dans la persistance des neutrophiles dans les tissus infectés par L. major, nous avons étudié les mécanismes de régulation de la mort des neutrophiles. Nous avons démontré que les macrophages pouvaient induire l'apoptose des neutrophiles dans un procédé impliquant le TNF. Le TNF est une cytokine aux propriétés pro- et anti-inflammatoires, exprimée sous une forme transmembranaire qui peut être clivée pour relâcher la forme sécrétée. Nos expériences illustrent le rôle essentiel de la forme transmembranaire du TNF (mTNF) dans l'induction de l'apoptose des neutrophiles par les macrophages. Lé TNF est une cytokine importante dans la résolution de la réaction inflammatoire induite par L. major, et chez les souris résistantes l'absence de TNF provoque des lésions inflammatoires plus importantes. Nous avons étudié la contribution du mTNF dans la résolution de l'infection avec L. major. Nos résultats démontrent que suite à une infection avec le parasite, la présence du mTNF est suffisante pour guérir la lésion inflammatoire et contrôler efficacement la réplication du parasite. De plus, le mTNF joue un rôle essentiel dans l'élimination des neutrophiles du tissu infecté. Alors que la persistance des neutrophiles est nocive pour l'hôte, nous avons montré que les neutrophiles avaient un rôle précoce anti-inflammatoire. En résumé, cette étude révèle l'importance du mTNF dans l'induction de l'apoptose des neutrophiles par les macrophages, un procédé impliqué dans la résolution de la lésion inflammatoire induite par l'infection avec L. major.