Petroleum geological framework and hydrocarbon potential in the Yellow Sea

Sedimentary basins in the Yellow Sea can be grouped tectonically into the North Yellow Sea Basin (NYSB), the northern basin of the South Yellow Sea (SYSNB) and the southern basin of the South Yellow Sea (SYSSB). The NYSB is connected to Anju Basin to the east. The SYSSB extends to Subei Basin to the west. The acoustic basement of basins in the North Yellow Sea and South Yellow Sea is disparate, having different stratigraphic evolution and oil accumulation features, even though they have been under the same stress regime since the Late Triassic. The acoustic basement of the NYSB features China-Korea Platform crystalline rocks, whereas those in the SYSNB and SYSSB are of the Paleozoic Yangtze Platform sedimentary layers or metamorphic rocks. Since the Late Mesozoic terrestrial strata in the eastern of the NYSB (West Korea Bay Basin) were discovered having industrial hydrocarbon accumulation, the oil potential in the Mesozoic strata in the west depression of the basin could be promising, although the petroleum exploration in the South Yellow Sea has made no break-through yet. New deep reflection data and several drilling wells have indicated the source rock of the Mesozoic in the basins of South Yellow Sea, and the Paleozoic platform marine facies in the SYSSB and Central Rise could be the other hosts of oil or natural gas. The Mesozoic hydrocarbon could be found in the Mesozoic of the foredeep basin in the SYSNB that bears potential hydrocarbon in thick Cretaceous strata, and so does the SYSSB where the same petroleum system exists to that of oil-bearing Subei Basin.

COASTAL SEA-LEVEL AND THE LARGE-SCALE CLIMATE STATE - A DOWNSCALING EXERCISE FOR THE JAPANESE ISLANDS

A major problem which is envisaged in the course of man-made climate change is sea-level rise. The global aspect of the thermal expansion of the sea water likely is reasonably well simulated by present day climate models; the variation of sea level, due to variations of the regional atmospheric forcing and of the large-scale oceanic circulation, is not adequately simulated by a global climate model because of insufficient spatial resolution. A method to infer the coastal aspects of sea level change is to use a statistical ''downscaling'' strategy: a linear statistical model is built upon a multi-year data set of local sea level data and of large-scale oceanic and/or atmospheric data such as sea-surface temperature or sea-level air-pressure. We apply this idea to sea level along the Japanese coast. The sea level is related to regional and North Pacific sea-surface temperature and sea-level air pressure. Two relevant processes are identified. One process is the local wind set-up of water due to regional low-frequency wind anomalies; the other is a planetary scale atmosphere-ocean interaction which takes place in the eastern North Pacific.

Synoptic conditions governing upwelling along the Polish Baltic coast

The study analyses atmospheric feedback to the occurrence of upwelling along the Polish Baltic coast. Upwelling events were identified on the basis of daily mean sea surface temperature (SST) maps from the period 1982–2010 derived from the NOAA OI SST V2 High Resolution Dataset. Synoptic conditions favourable to the occurrence of upwelling were determined on the basis of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. On average, there are approximately 23 days with upwelling each year along the Polish Baltic coast, which account for approximately 13%

Comparative analysis European wide marine ecosystem shifts - a large scale approach for developing the basis for ecosystem-based management

Abrupt and rapid ecosystem shifts (where major reorganizations of food-web and community structures occur), commonly termed regime shifts, are changes between contrasting and persisting states of ecosystem structure and function. These shifts have been increasingly reported for exploited marine ecosystems around the world from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic. Understanding the drivers and mechanisms leading to marine ecosystem shifts is crucial in developing adaptive management strategies to achieve sustainable exploitation of marine ecosystems. An international workshop on a comparative approach to analysing these marine ecosystem shifts was held at Hamburg University, Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, Germany on 1-3 November 2010. Twenty-seven scientists from 14 countries attended the meeting, representing specialists from seven marine regions, including the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Barents Sea, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Bay of Biscay and the Scotian Shelf off the Canadian East coast. The goal of the workshop was to conduct the first large-scale comparison of marine ecosystem regime shifts across multiple regional areas, in order to support the development of ecosystem-based management strategies.

Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean

Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and regional models, imply the need for caution when extending these considerations into higher trophic levels.

Modelling the Influence of Major Baltic Inflows on Near-Bottom Conditions at the Entrance of the Gulf of Finland

A coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model was implemented in order to estimate the effects of Major Baltic Inflows on the near-bottom hydrophysical and biogeochemical conditions in the northern Baltic Proper and the western Gulf of Finland during the period 1991�2009. We compared results of a realistic reference run to the results of an experimental run where Major Baltic Inflows were suppressed. Further to the expected overall decrease in bottom salinity, this modelling experiment confirms that in the absence of strong saltwater inflows the deep areas of the Baltic Proper would become more anoxic, while in the shallower areas (western Gulf of Finland) near-bottom average conditions improve. Our experiment revealed that typical estuarine circulation results in the sporadic emergence of short-lasting events of near-bottom anoxia in the western Gulf of Finland due to transport of water masses from the Baltic Proper. Extrapolating our results beyond the modelled period, we speculate that the further deepening of the halocline in the Baltic Proper is likely to prevent inflows of anoxic water to the Gulf of Finland and in the longer term would lead to improvement in near-bottom conditions in the Baltic Proper. Our results reaffirm the importance of accurate representation of salinity dynamics in coupled Baltic Sea models serving as a basis for credible hindcast and future projection simulations of biogeochemical conditions.

Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas’ ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton’s exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from complex combinations of multiple physical drivers, including changes in mixing, circulation and temperature, which act both locally and non-locally through advection.

Phylogeographic structure of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Britain and Ireland: glacial refugia, post-glacial colonisation, and origins of sympatric populations

The phylogeographical structure of brown trout Salmo trutta in Britain and Ireland was studied using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) analysis of four mitochondrial DNA segments (16S/ND1, ND5/6, COXIII/ND5 and ND5/12S). Analysis of 3636 individuals from 83 sites-morphotypes revealed a total of 25 haplotypes. These haplotypes were nested in seven two-step clades. Although there was a clear geographical patterning to the occurrence of derived clades, admixture among ancestral clades was extensive throughout the studied area. A relevant feature of the data was that some populations contained mixtures of highly divergent clades. This type II phylogeographic pattern is uncommon in nature. Clade intermixing is likely to have taken place during earlier interglacials as well as since the Last Glacial Maximum. The anadromous life history of many S. trutta populations has probably also contributed to clade mixing. Based on the data presented here and published data, postglacial colonization of Britain and Ireland most likely involved S. trutta from at least five potential glacial refuges. Probable locations for such refugia were: south of England-western France, east of the Baltic Sea, western Ireland, Celtic Sea and North Sea. Ferox S. trutta, as defined by their longevity, late maturation and piscivory, exhibited a strong association with a particular clade indicating that they share a common ancestor. Current evidence indicates that the Lough Melvin gillaroo S. trutta and sonaghen S. trutta sympatric types diverged prior to colonization of Lough Melvin and, although limited gene flow has occurred since secondary contact, they have remained largely reproductively isolated due to inlet and outlet river spawning segregation. Gillaroo S. trutta may reflect descendents of a previously more widespread lineage that has declined due to habitat alterations particularly affecting outlet rivers. The mosaic-like distribution of mtDNA lineages means that conservation prioritization in Britain and Ireland should be based on the biological characteristics of local populations rather than solely on evolutionary lineages.

Environmental selection on transcriptome-derived SNPs in a high gene flow marine fish, the Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus)

High gene flow is considered the norm for most marine organisms and is expected to limit their ability to adapt to local environments. Few studies have directly compared the patterns of differentiation at neutral and selected gene loci in marine organisms. We analysed a transcriptome-derived panel of 281 SNPs in Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), a highly migratory small pelagic fish, for elucidating neutral and selected genetic variation among populations and to identify candidate genes for environmental adaptation. We analysed 607 individuals from 18 spawning locations in the northeast Atlantic, including two temperature clines (5-12 °C) and two salinity clines (5-35‰). By combining genome scan and landscape genetic analyses, four genetically distinct groups of herring were identified: Baltic Sea, Baltic-North Sea transition area, North Sea/British Isles and North Atlantic; notably, samples exhibited divergent clustering patterns for neutral and selected loci. We found statistically strong evidence for divergent selection at 16 outlier loci on a global scale, and significant correlations with temperature and salinity at nine loci. On regional scales, we identified two outlier loci with parallel patterns across temperature clines and five loci associated with temperature in the North Sea/North Atlantic. Likewise, we found seven replicated outliers, of which five were significantly associated with low salinity across both salinity clines. Our results reveal a complex pattern of varying spatial genetic variation among outlier loci, likely reflecting adaptations to local environments. In addition to disclosing the fine scale of local adaptation in a highly vagile species, our data emphasize the need to preserve functionally important biodiversity.

Gene-associated markers can assign origin in a weakly structured fish, Atlantic herring

Regulations on the exploitation of populations of commercially important fish species and the ensuing consumer interest in sustainable products have increased the need to accurately identify the population of origin of fish and fish products. Although genomics-based tools have proven highly useful, there are relatively few examples in marine fish displaying accurate origin assignment. We synthesize data for 156 single-nucleotide polymorphisms typed in 1039 herring, Clupea harengus L., spanning the Northeast Atlantic to develop a tool that allows assignment of individual herring to their regional origin. We show the method's suitability to address specific biological questions, as well as management applications. We analyse temporally replicated collections from two areas, the Skagerrak (n = 81, 84, 66) and the western Baltic (n = 52, 52). Both areas harbour heavily fished mixed-origin stocks, complicating management issues. We report novel genetic evidence that herring from the Baltic Sea contribute to catches in the North Sea, and find support that western Baltic feeding aggregations mainly constitute herring from the western Baltic with contributions from the Eastern Baltic. Our study describes a general approach and outlines a database allowing individual assignment and traceability of herring across a large part of its East Atlantic distribution.

Outlier Loci Detect Intraspecific Biodiversity amongst Spring and Autumn Spawning Herring across Local Scales

Herring, Clupea harengus, is one of the ecologically and commercially most important species in European northern seas, where two distinct ecotypes have been described based on spawning time; spring and autumn. To date, it is unknown if these spring and autumn spawning herring constitute genetically distinct units. We assessed levels of genetic divergence between spring and autumn spawning herring in the Baltic Sea using two types of DNA markers, microsatellites and Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms, and compared the results with data for autumn spawning North Sea herring. Temporally replicated analyses reveal clear genetic differences between ecotypes and hence support reproductive isolation. Loci showing non-neutral behaviour, so-called outlier loci, show convergence between autumn spawning herring from demographically disjoint populations, potentially reflecting selective processes associated with autumn spawning ecotypes. The abundance and
exploitation of the two ecotypes have varied strongly over space and time in the Baltic Sea, where autumn spawners have faced strong depression for decades. The results therefore have practical implications by highlighting the need for specific management of these co-occurring ecotypes to meet requirements for sustainable exploitation and ensure optimal livelihood for coastal communities.

Intraseasonal oscillation of total precipitable water over North Indian Ocean and its application in the diagnostic study of coastal rainfall

TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) is reported to be a useful sensor to measure the atmospheric and oceanic parameters even in cloudy conditions. Vertically integrated specific humidity, Total Precipitable Water (TPW) retrieved from the water vapour absorption channel (22GHz.) along with 10m wind speed and rain rate derived from TMI is used to investigate the moisture variation over North Indian Ocean. Intraseasonal Oscillations (ISO) of TPW during the summer monsoon seasons 1998, 1999, and 2000 over North Indian Ocean is explored using wavelet analysis. The dominant waves in TPW during the monsoon periods and the differences in ISO over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are investigated. The northward propagation of TPW anomaly and its coherence with the coastal rainfall is also studied. For the diagnostic study of heavy rainfall spells over the west coast, the intrusion of TPW over the North Arabian Sea is seen to be a useful tool.

Decreased frequency of North Atlantic polar lows associated with future climate warming

Every winter, the high-latitude oceans are struck by severe storms that are considerably smaller than the weather-dominating synoptic depressions1. Accompanied by strong winds and heavy precipitation, these often explosively developing mesoscale cyclones—termed polar lows1—constitute a threat to offshore activities such as shipping or oil and gas exploitation. Yet owing to their small scale, polar lows are poorly represented in the observational and global reanalysis data2 often used for climatological investigations of atmospheric features and cannot be assessed in coarse-resolution global simulations of possible future climates. Here we show that in a future anthropogenically warmed climate, the frequency of polar lows is projected to decline. We used a series of regional climate model simulations to downscale a set of global climate change scenarios3 from the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. In this process, we first simulated the formation of polar low systems in the North Atlantic and then counted the individual cases. A previous study4 using NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data5 revealed that polar low frequency from 1948 to 2005 did not systematically change. Now, in projections for the end of the twenty-first century, we found a significantly lower number of polar lows and a northward shift of their mean genesis region in response to elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration. This change can be related to changes in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and mid-troposphere temperature; the latter is found to rise faster than the former so that the resulting stability is increased, hindering the formation or intensification of polar lows. Our results provide a rare example of a climate change effect in which a type of extreme weather is likely to decrease, rather than increase.

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean1. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity2 and African Sahel3, 4, 5 and Amazonian5 droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations6, 7, 8, 9, 10. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures11, 12, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions6, 9 and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860–2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910–1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol–cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol–cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.

Examination of wind storms over Central Europe with respect to circulation weather types and NAO phases

The occurrence of wind storms in Central Europe is investigated with respect to large-scale atmospheric flow and local wind speeds in the investigation area. Two different methods of storm identification are applied for Central Europe as the target region: one based on characteristics of large-scale flow (circulation weather types, CWT) and the other on the occurrence of extreme wind speeds. The identified events are examined with respect to the NAO phases and CWTs under which they occur. Pressure patterns, wind speeds and cyclone tracks are investigated for storms assigned to different CWTs. Investigations are based on ERA40 reanalysis data. It is shown that about 80% of the storm days in Central Europe are connected with westerly flow and that Central European storm events primarily occur during a moderately positive NAO phase, while strongly positive NAO phases (6.4% of all days) account for more than 20% of the storms. A storm occurs over Central Europe during about 10% of the days with a strong positive NAO index. The most frequent pathway of cyclone systems associated with storms over Central Europe leads from the North Atlantic over the British Isles, North Sea and southern Scandinavia into the Baltic Sea. The mean intensity of the systems typically reaches its maximum near the British Isles. Differences between the characteristics for storms identified from the CWT identification procedure (gale days, based on MSLP fields) and those from extreme winds at Central European grid points are small, even though only 70% of the storm days agree. While most storms occur during westerly flow situations, specific characteristics of storms during the other CWTs are also considered. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society