Prognostic value of the Geneva prediction rule in patients with pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND Assessment of pre-test probability of pulmonary embolism (PE) and prognostic stratification are two widely recommended steps in the management of patients with suspected PE. Some items of the Geneva prediction rule may have a prognostic value. We analyzed whether the initial probability assessed by the Geneva rule was associated with the outcome of patients with PE. METHODS In a post-hoc analysis of a multicenter trial including 1,693 patients with suspected PE, the all-cause death or readmission rates during the 3-month follow-up of patients with confirmed PE were analyzed. PE probability group was prospectively assessed by the revised Geneva score (RGS). Similar analyses were made with the a posteriori-calculated simplified Geneva score (SGS). RESULTS PE was confirmed in 357 patients and 21 (5.9%) died during the 3-month follow-up. The mortality rate differed significantly with the initial RGS group, as with the SGS group. For the RGS, the mortality increased from 0% (95% Confidence Interval: [0-5.4%]) in the low-probability group to 14.3% (95% CI: [6.3-28.2%]) in the high-probability group, and for the SGS, from 0% (95% CI: [0-5.4%] to 17.9% (95% CI: [7.4-36%]). Readmission occurred in 58 out of the 352 patients with complete information on readmission (16.5%). No significant change of readmission rate was found among the RGS or SGS groups. CONCLUSIONS Returning to the initial PE probability evaluation may help clinicians predict 3-month mortality in patients with confirmed PE. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00117169).

Investigating the value of privacy on online social networks: conjoint analysis

Popularity of Online Social Networks has been recently overshadowed by the privacy problems they pose. Users are getting increasingly vigilant concerning information they disclose and are strongly opposing the use of their information for commercial purposes. Nevertheless, as long as the network is offered to users for free, providers have little choice but to generate revenue through personalized advertising to remain financially viable. Our study empirically investigates the ways out of this deadlock. Using conjoint analysis we find that privacy is indeed important for users. We identify three groups of users with different utility patterns: Unconcerned Socializers, Control-conscious Socializers and Privacy-concerned. Our results provide relevant insights into how network providers can capitalize on different user preferences by specifically addressing the needs of distinct groups in the form of various premium accounts. Overall, our study is the first attempt to assess the value of privacy in monetary terms in this context.

Mixing-cell boundary conditions and apparent mass balance errors for advective-dispersive solute transport

In many field or laboratory situations, well-mixed reservoirs like, for instance, injection or detection wells and gas distribution or sampling chambers define boundaries of transport domains. Exchange of solutes or gases across such boundaries can occur through advective or diffusive processes. First we analyzed situations, where the inlet region consists of a well-mixed reservoir, in a systematic way by interpreting them in terms of injection type. Second, we discussed the mass balance errors that seem to appear in case of resident injections. Mixing cells (MC) can be coupled mathematically in different ways to a domain where advective-dispersive transport occurs: by assuming a continuous solute flux at the interface (flux injection, MC-FI), or by assuming a continuous resident concentration (resident injection). In the latter case, the flux leaving the mixing cell can be defined in two ways: either as the value when the interface is approached from the mixing-cell side (MC-RT -), or as the value when it is approached from the column side (MC-RT +). Solutions of these injection types with constant or-in one case-distance-dependent transport parameters were compared to each other as well as to a solution of a two-layer system, where the first layer was characterized by a large dispersion coefficient. These solutions differ mainly at small Peclet numbers. For most real situations, the model for resident injection MC-RI + is considered to be relevant. This type of injection was modeled with a constant or with an exponentially varying dispersion coefficient within the porous medium. A constant dispersion coefficient will be appropriate for gases because of the Eulerian nature of the usually dominating gaseous diffusion coefficient, whereas the asymptotically growing dispersion coefficient will be more appropriate for solutes due to the Lagrangian nature of mechanical dispersion, which evolves only with the fluid flow. Assuming a continuous resident concentration at the interface between a mixing cell and a column, as in case of the MC-RI + model, entails a flux discontinuity. This flux discontinuity arises inherently from the definition of a mixing cell: the mixing process is included in the balance equation, but does not appear in the description of the flux through the mixing cell. There, only convection appears because of the homogeneous concentration within the mixing cell. Thus, the solute flux through a mixing cell in close contact with a transport domain is generally underestimated. This leads to (apparent) mass balance errors, which are often reported for similar situations and erroneously used to judge the validity of such models. Finally, the mixing cell model MC-RI + defines a universal basis regarding the type of solute injection at a boundary. Depending on the mixing cell parameters, it represents, in its limits, flux as well as resident injections. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptation to Changes in the Coffee Value Chain and the Price of Coiffee among Coffee Producers in Two Villages in Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

Market liberalization in Tanzania has eroded the monopoly of the cooperative unions by allowing private coffee buyers (PCBs) to compete with them on equal footing. Similarly, farmers groups and primary societies are now allowed to sell coffee at auction. Thus, farmers have various options for selling their coffee. Similarly, the coffee industry has experienced large fluctuations in prices and stagnation in production. How do farmers react to these changes? Can and do farmers profit from different market conditions and sell to different traders at the lower end of the value chain, or do they remain with cooperatives or farmers groups? This study was conducted in Mruwia and Mshiri villages in Moshi Rural district. Whereas Mshiri village remains attached to the Kilimanjaro Native Cooperative Union (KNCU), Mruwia has detached from this organization and sells coffee independently. The sample (103) was randomly selected from the coffee farmers in the two villages. Data were collected through surveys, focus group discussions (FGDs), and socio-anthropological methods (participant-observation, biographies, and thematic interviews). Results indicate that the selection of whom to sell coffee depends largely on farmers’ dependence on coffee and prices, other benefits accrued, and whether the initial costs are covered by buyers. Additionally, most respondents did not sell coffee to PCBs. Thus, prices, the institutional infrastructure, and the structure of local communities were important when making decisions about how and with whom to trade.

Helium transfer from water into quartz crystals: A new approach for porewater dating

Several important fundamental and applied problems require a quantification of slow rates of groundwater flow. To resolve these problems helium appears to be a promising tracer. In this contribution we discuss a new approach, which gives the helium inventory in a rock – pore water system by using the relevant mineral record, i.e., without extraction and investigation of the porewater samples. Some U- and Th-poor minerals such as quartz (quartz separates from Permo-Carboniferous Formation, sandstone–shale interlayering, Molasses Basin, Northern Switzerland, hereafter PCF, are used in this study) contain excessive helium having migrated into their internal helium-accessible volume (HAV) from the surrounding porewater [I.N. Tolstikhin, B.E. Lehmann, H.H. Loosli, A. Gautschi, Helium and argon isotopes in rocks, minerals and related groundwaters: a case study in Northern Switzerland, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 60 (1996) 1497–1514]. These volumes are estimated by using helium as a nano-size penetrating tool, i.e., by saturation of the minerals with helium under controlled pressure–temperature conditions and subsequent measurements of the helium-saturated concentrations. In the quartz separates HAV/total volume ratios vary from 0.017% to 0.16%; along with the measured initial (unsaturated) He concentration the HAV gives the internal helium pressure, the mean value obtained for 7 samples (25 sample aliquots) is P=0.45F0.15 atm (1 r). The product of helium pressure and solubility (7.35_10_3 cc STP He/cc H2O for the temperature and salinity of PCF aquifers reported in [F.J. Pearson, W. Balderer, H.H. Loosli, B.E. Lehmann, A. Matter, T. Peters, H. Schmassmann, A. Gautschi, Applied Isotope Hydrogeology–A Case Study in Northern Switzerland, Elsevier Amsterdam, 1991, 439 pp.]) is the mineral-derived He concentration in the respective porewater, CPW=0.0035F0.0017 cc He/cc H2O. This value is in full accord with measured He concentrations in PCF aquifers, CPCF, varying from 0.0045 to 0.0016 cc He/cc H2O. This agreement validates the proposed approach and also shows that the mineral–porewater helium–concentration equilibrium has been established. Indeed, estimates of the He-migration rates through our quartz samples show that in ~6000 years the internal pressure should equilibrate with He-concentration in related porewater of PCF, and this time interval is short compared to independent estimates [I.N. Tolstikhin, B.E. Lehmann, H.H. Loosli, A. Gautschi, Helium and argon isotopes in rocks, minerals and related groundwaters: a case study in Northern Switzerland, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 60 (1996) 1497–1514]. The helium inventory in the rock–porewater assemblage shows that helium abundance in pore waters is indeed important. In shale samples (with ~15% porosity) porewaters contain more helium than the host minerals altogether. Porewater heliumconcentration profiles, available from the mineral record, along with helium production rates are input parameters allowing model(s) of helium migration through a hydrological structure to be developed. Quite high helium concentrations in PCF porewaters imply slow removal mechanisms, which will be discussed elsewhere.

High Incorrect Use of the Standard Error of the Mean (SEM) in Original Articles in Three Cardiovascular Journals Evaluated for 2012.

RATIONALE In biomedical journals authors sometimes use the standard error of the mean (SEM) for data description, which has been called inappropriate or incorrect. OBJECTIVE To assess the frequency of incorrect use of SEM in articles in three selected cardiovascular journals. METHODS AND RESULTS All original journal articles published in 2012 in Cardiovascular Research, Circulation: Heart Failure and Circulation Research were assessed by two assessors for inappropriate use of SEM when providing descriptive information of empirical data. We also assessed whether the authors state in the methods section that the SEM will be used for data description. Of 441 articles included in this survey, 64% (282 articles) contained at least one instance of incorrect use of the SEM, with two journals having a prevalence above 70% and "Circulation: Heart Failure" having the lowest value (27%). In 81% of articles with incorrect use of SEM, the authors had explicitly stated that they use the SEM for data description and in 89% SEM bars were also used instead of 95% confidence intervals. Basic science studies had a 7.4-fold higher level of inappropriate SEM use (74%) than clinical studies (10%). LIMITATIONS The selection of the three cardiovascular journals was based on a subjective initial impression of observing inappropriate SEM use. The observed results are not representative for all cardiovascular journals. CONCLUSION In three selected cardiovascular journals we found a high level of inappropriate SEM use and explicit methods statements to use it for data description, especially in basic science studies. To improve on this situation, these and other journals should provide clear instructions to authors on how to report descriptive information of empirical data.

Dementia in patients with atrial fibrillation and the value of the Hachinski ischemic score.

AIM To assess the prevalence of vascular dementia, mixed dementia and Alzheimer's disease in patients with atrial fibrillation, and to evaluate the accuracy of the Hachinski ischemic score for these subtypes of dementia. METHODS A nested case-control study was carried out. A total of 103 of 784 consecutive patients evaluated for cognitive status at the Ambulatory Geriatric Clinic had a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation. Controls without atrial fibrillation were randomly selected from the remaining 681 patients using a 1:2 matching for sex, age and education. RESULTS The prevalence of vascular dementia was twofold in patients with atrial fibrillation compared with controls (21.4% vs 10.7%, P = 0.024). Alzheimer's disease was also more frequent in the group with atrial fibrillation (12.6% vs 7.3%, P = 0.046), whereas mixed dementia had a similar distribution. The Hachinski ischemic score poorly discriminated between dementia subtypes, with misclassification rates between 46% (95% CI 28-66) and 70% (95% CI 55-83). In patients with atrial fibrillation, these rates ranged from 55% (95% CI 32-77) to 69% (95% CI 39-91%). In patients in whom the diagnosis of dementia was excluded, the Hachinski ischemic score suggested the presence of vascular dementia in 11% and mixed dementia in 30%. CONCLUSIONS Vascular dementia and Alzheimer's disease, but not mixed dementia, are more prevalent in patients with atrial fibrillation. The discriminative accuracy of the Hachinski ischemic score for dementia subtypes in atrial fibrillation is poor, with a significant proportion of misclassifications.

Which clinical signs predict hypoxaemia in young Senegalese children with acute lower respiratory tract disease?

BACKGROUND Acute lower respiratory tract diseases are an important cause of mortality in children in resource-limited settings. In the absence of pulse oximetry, clinicians rely on clinical signs to detect hypoxaemia. OBJECTIVE To assess the diagnostic value of clinical signs of hypoxaemia in children aged 2 months to 5 years with acute lower respiratory tract disease. METHODS Seventy children with a history of cough and signs of respiratory distress were enrolled. Three experienced physicians recorded clinical signs and oxygen saturation by pulse oximetry. Hypoxaemia was defined as oxygen saturation <90%. Clinical predictors of hypoxaemia were evaluated using adjusted diagnostic odds ratios (aDOR). RESULTS There was a 43% prevalence of hypoxaemia. An initial visual impression of poor general status [aDOR 20·0, 95% CI 3·8-106], severe chest-indrawing (aDOR 9·8, 95% CI 1·5-65), audible grunting (aDOR 6·9, 95% CI 1·4-25) and cyanosis (aDOR 26·5, 95% CI 1·1-677) were significant predictors of hypoxaemia. CONCLUSION In children under 5 years of age, several simple clinical signs are reliable predictors of hypoxaemia. These should be included in diagnostic guidelines.

Combination of MRI and dynamic FET PET for initial glioma grading

AIM MRI and PET with 18F-fluoro-ethyl-tyrosine (FET) have been increasingly used to evaluate patients with gliomas. Our purpose was to assess the additive value of MR spectroscopy (MRS), diffusion imaging and dynamic FET-PET for glioma grading. PATIENTS, METHODS 38 patients (42 ± 15 aged, F/M: 0.46) with untreated histologically proven brain gliomas were included. All underwent conventional MRI, MRS, diffusion sequences, and FET-PET within 3±4 weeks. Performances of tumour FET time-activity-curve, early-to-middle SUVmax ratio, choline / creatine ratio and ADC histogram distribution pattern for gliomas grading were assessed, as compared to histology. Combination of these parameters and respective odds were also evaluated. RESULTS Tumour time-activity-curve reached the best accuracy (67%) when taken alone to distinguish between low and high-grade gliomas, followed by ADC histogram analysis (65%). Combination of time-activity-curve and ADC histogram analysis improved the sensitivity from 67% to 86% and the specificity from 63-67% to 100% (p < 0.008). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, negative slope of the tumour FET time-activity-curve however remains the best predictor of high-grade glioma (odds 7.6, SE 6.8, p = 0.022). CONCLUSION Combination of dynamic FET-PET and diffusion MRI reached good performance for gliomas grading. The use of FET-PET/MR may be highly relevant in the initial assessment of primary brain tumours.

Don't forget asking the others! - The added value of significant other's reports on patient interpersonal style for the prediction of therapy process and outcome

Theory: Interpersonal factors play a major role in causing and maintaining depression. It is unclear, however, to what degree significant others of the patient need to be involved for characterizing the patient's interpersonal style. Therefore, our study sought to investigate how impact messages as perceived by the patients' significant others add to the prediction of psychotherapy process and outcome above and beyond routine assessments, and therapist factors. Method: 143 outpatients with major depressive disorder were treated by 24 therapists with CBT or Exposure-Based Cognitive Therapy. Interpersonal style was measured pre and post therapy with the informant‐based Impact Message Inventory (IMI), in addition to the self‐report Inventory of Interpersonal Problems (IIP‐32). Indicators for the patients' dominance and affiliation as well as interpersonal distress were calculated from these measures. Depressive and general symptomatology was assessed at pre, post, and at three months follow‐up, and by process measures after every session. Results: Whereas significant other's reports did not add significantly to the prediction of the early therapeutic alliance, central mechanisms of change, or post‐therapy outcome including therapist factors, the best predictor of outcome 3 months post therapy was an increase in dominance as perceived by significant others. Conclusions: The patients' significant others seem to provide important additional information about the patients' interpersonal style and therefore should be included in the diagnostic process. Moreover, practitioners should specifically target interpersonal change as a potential mechanism of change in psychotherapy for depression.

Susceptibility of enamel to initial erosion in relation to tooth type, tooth surface and enamel depth

This study aimed at assessing the susceptibility of different tooth types (molar/premolar), surfaces (buccal/lingual) and enamel depths (100, 200, 400 and 600 μm) to initial erosion measured by surface microhardness loss (ΔSMH) and calcium (Ca) release. Twenty molars and 20 premolars were divided into experimental and control groups, cut into lingual/ buccal halves, and ground/polished, removing 100 μm of enamel. The initial surface microhardness (SMH 0 ) was measured on all halves. The experimental group was subjected to 3 consecutive erosive challenges (30 ml/tooth of 1% citric acid, pH 3.6, 25 ° C, 1 min). After each challenge, ΔSMH and Ca release were measured. The same teeth were consecutively ground to 200, 400 and 600 μm depths, and the experimental group underwent 3 erosive challenges at each depth. No difference was found in SMH 0 between experimental and control groups. Multivariate nonparametric ANOVA showed no significant differences between lingual and buccal surfaces in ΔSMH (p = 0.801) or Ca release (p = 0.370). ΔSMH was significantly greater in premolars than in molars (p < 0.05), but not different with respect to enamel depth. Ca release decreased significantly with increasing depth. Regression between Ca release and ΔSMH at 100 μm depth showed lower slope and r 2 value, associated with greater Ca release values. At 200-600 μm depths, moderately large r 2 values were observed (0.651-0.830). In conclusion, different teeth and enamel depths have different susceptibility to erosion, so when Ca release is used to measure erosion, the depth of the test facet in enamel should be standardized, whereas this is less important if ΔSMH is used.

Strategies of Active Dissemination of Workplace Health Promotion

Purpose – A growing body of literature provides evidence for the efficacy of workplace health promotion (WHP). However, little is known about effective dissemination strategies for WHP interventions. The purpose of this paper is to describe how a WHP agency in Zurich, Switzerland, used bulk mailings, information events, telephone marketing and free initial consultations for the large-scale geographic marketing of WHP services, with a focus on tobacco prevention (TP). Design/methodology/approach – To analyze the number of companies responding positively to solicitation, examine the predictors of positive responses and explore the reasons for negative responses, the authors used both quantitative (e.g. a standardized questionnaire) and qualitative (telephone interviews) methods. Findings – The results show that except for telephone marketing (69 percent), the success rates of dissemination activities were very low (3-9 percent). Predictors for a positive response were institutionalization of WHP, the representative’s personal concern about TP, and problems with environmental tobacco smoke within the company. The most prominent reason for a negative Response was that the companies had already implemented TP measures by themselves and needed no further external support. Practical implications – It is suggested that TP was the wrong emphasis for a WHP program to be disseminated at that particular time, because a law on protection from passive smoking was introduced in Switzerland shortly afterwards. Originality/value – The study examines dissemination strategies under real-life Consulting conditions. It builds on on a large sample of companies and uses both quantitative and qualitative research methods. It reports specific numbers and success rates of marketing activities and thereby contributes to the knowledge about an important issue for intervention planning in the field of WHP.

An MILP-based heuristic for staff scheduling problems with acceptance levels

We present a real-world staff-assignment problem that was reported to us by a provider of an online workforce scheduling software. The problem consists of assigning employees to work shifts subject to a large variety of requirements related to work laws, work shift compatibility, workload balancing, and personal preferences of employees. A target value is given for each requirement, and all possible deviations from these values are associated with acceptance levels. The objective is to minimize the total number of deviations in ascending order of the acceptance levels. We present an exact lexicographic goal programming MILP formulation and an MILP-based heuristic. The heuristic consists of two phases: in the first phase a feasible schedule is built and in the second phase parts of the schedule are iteratively re-optimized by applying an exact MILP model. A major advantage of such MILP-based approaches is the flexibility to account for additional constraints or modified planning objectives, which is important as the requirements may vary depending on the company or planning period. The applicability of the heuristic is demonstrated for a test set derived from real-world data. Our computational results indicate that the heuristic is able to devise optimal solutions to non-trivial problem instances, and outperforms the exact lexicographic goal programming formulation on medium- and large-sized problem instances.