Conservation planning with irreplaceability: does the method matter?

A number of systematic conservation planning tools are available to aid in making land use decisions. Given the increasing worldwide use and application of reserve design tools, including measures of site irreplaceability, it is essential that methodological differences and their potential effect on conservation planning outcomes are understood. We compared the irreplaceability of sites for protecting ecosystems within the Brigalow Belt Bioregion, Queensland, Australia, using two alternative reserve system design tools, Marxan and C-Plan. We set Marxan to generate multiple reserve systems that met targets with minimal area; the first scenario ignored spatial objectives, while the second selected compact groups of areas. Marxan calculates the irreplaceability of each site as the proportion of solutions in which it occurs for each of these set scenarios. In contrast, C-Plan uses a statistical estimate of irreplaceability as the likelihood that each site is needed in all combinations of sites that satisfy the targets. We found that sites containing rare ecosystems are almost always irreplaceable regardless of the method. Importantly, Marxan and C-Plan gave similar outcomes when spatial objectives were ignored. Marxan with a compactness objective defined twice as much area as irreplaceable, including many sites with relatively common ecosystems. However, targets for all ecosystems were met using a similar amount of area in C-Plan and Marxan, even with compactness. The importance of differences in the outcomes of using the two methods will depend on the question being addressed; in general, the use of two or more complementary tools is beneficial.

Efficiently computing weighted proximity relationships in spatial databases

Spatial data mining recently emerges from a number of real applications, such as real-estate marketing, urban planning, weather forecasting, medical image analysis, road traffic accident analysis, etc. It demands for efficient solutions for many new, expensive, and complicated problems. In this paper, we investigate the problem of evaluating the top k distinguished “features” for a “cluster” based on weighted proximity relationships between the cluster and features. We measure proximity in an average fashion to address possible nonuniform data distribution in a cluster. Combining a standard multi-step paradigm with new lower and upper proximity bounds, we presented an efficient algorithm to solve the problem. The algorithm is implemented in several different modes. Our experiment results not only give a comparison among them but also illustrate the efficiency of the algorithm.

Retail restructuring and consumer choice 1:long term local changes in consumer behaviour : Portsmouth 1980-2002

Over the last two decades fundamental changes have taken place in the global supply and local structure of provision of British food retailing. Consumer lifestyles have also changed markedly. Despite some important studies of local interactions between new retail developments and consumers, we argue in this paper that there is a critical need to gauge the cumulative effects of these changes on consumer behaviour over longer periods. In this, the first of two papers, we present the main findings of a study of the effects of long-term retail change on consumers at the local level. We provide in this paper an overview of the changing geography of retail provision and patterns of consumption at the local level. We contextualise the Portsmouth study area as a locality that typifies national changes in retail provision and consumer lifestyles; outline the main findings of two large-scale surveys of food shopping behaviour carried out in 1980 and 2002; and reveal the impacts of retail restructuring on consumer behaviour. We focus in particular on choice between stores at the local level and end by problematising our understanding of how consumers experience choice, emphasising the need for qualitative research. This issue is then dealt with in our complementary second paper, which explores choice within stores and how this relates to the broader spatial context.

On the search for spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) with spatial dependency

This paper examines various specifications that are used within the literature to test for spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI). Analysis provides significant evidence of externalities from inward FDI, but it shows that these externalities are more localized than has previously been believed. Further, the results demonstrate that the econometric treatment of issues such as agglomeration, contiguity and spatial dependence significantly changes the conclusions regarding local and national spillovers from FDI, and productivity growth more generally.

Planning for cycling in the West Midlands

The issues involved in planning for pedal cyclists are examined with reference to the West Midlands County. Working with a local cycling campaign group, the researcher uses action research methods to investigate and influence the campaign. Development of cycle planning is traced through the literature, focusing on bicycle ownership, bicycle use and cycling policy. UK practice is contrasted with the integrated approach of other countries. An extensive bibliography is provided. Local authority cycle planning through the TPP process is systematically assessed over three years. This provides a context for the information regarding cycling in the West Midlands. Existing data is presented from the 1981 Census and local police road accident and bicycle theft records. The developing relationship between the local authority and the cycle campaign group is narrated in detail, explaining the problems that can beset efforts to improve conditions for cyclists. The researcher was closely involved in this interaction, particularly with policy and a major public inquiry. A survey of the Cycle Campaign Network indicates that the local group was not atypical. To provide information relevant to the local campaign and for effective local planning, a survey of 3,500 West Midlands residents was conducted using a novel combination of questionnaires and interviews. It shows that 1) Bicycle ownership and use is considerably higher than indicated by the 1978/9 National Travel Survey 2) Cycling is most import to certain disadvantaged sections of the community, particularly the young, those without access to a car and in the lower SEGs. The broader issues of transport policy are discussed, concluding that cycling is regarded as a marginal activity and that changes in general transport policy, land use planning and fiscal arrangements are necessary conditions for cycle planning to succeed. An integrated package of cycling measures involving engineering, education, enforcement and encouragement is also required. Recommendations are made concerning central government, local authorities and cycle campaign groups. Subjects for further research are identified.

Organised for inward investment? Development agencies, local government, and firms in the inward investment process

Inward investment promotion and aftercare remain central aspects of local economic development for English Regional Development Agencies, Scottish and Welsh development bodies, and local authorities in Britain. In many cases, partnership and consultation mechanisms have become integral to attracting inward investment and providing aftercare. Inward investment is thus an important area in which to explore interinstitutional relations between agents operating along diverse spatial boundaries and with different responsibilities. In this paper we analyse the local and regional institutional structures and relations characterising the inward investment process in Britain using new survey data from local authorities, regional bodies, and inward investors. We find that promotional activities have clearly defined structures which are chiefly led by the regional level. Aftercare is characterised by more collaborative arrangements involving both regional bodies and local government. However, many bodies are little used, with competition and tension between partners remaining frequent within English regions, regardless of recent institutional changes designed to reduce such problems. In Scotland and Wales, however, their national institutions are not only widely used, but they create high levels of satisfaction from firms. Hence, England has yet to respond to the effective challenges of Scotland and Wales. The analysis also highlights the limited importance of all national, regional, and local public institutions in attracting inward investors and their subsequent aftercare. The critical inputs to business decisions appear to be driven chiefly by more general supply-side conditions (for example, general skills versus local public packages) and the general attractions of a particular location.

The challenges of delivering climate change policy at the sub-national level

It is asserted that sub-national government has a key role in responding to climate change. Drawing on a case study of metropolitan authorities in the English Midlands, this article examines the contribution of local authorities and their partners in delivering climate change targets agreed upon with central government. Rather than achieving fundamental change, actions were hampered by competing priorities, fragmented responsibilities, limited resources and difficulties in measuring outcomes. Nevertheless, in light of public expenditure cuts and the current coalition government's commitment to free councils from central targets, gaining support for local climate change actions will become even more challenging.

Planning the neighbourhood economy:land-use plans and the economic potential of urban residential neighbourhoods in the Netherlands

This article investigates the relationship between zoning by-laws, as put forward in governmental land-use plans and the viability of urban residential neighbourhood economies. The Dutch planning tradition has long been characterized by strict separation of functions and top-down planning. We argue that profound changes in social and economic structures make land-use planning practices less suitable for the current policy formula of "mixed urban milieus". Although the residential neighbourhood might not be the location of large firms, it definitely attracts small ones, and facilitates starting businesses whose presence (and potential growth) can be beneficial to the city as a whole. We present a typology of spatial patterns of neighbourhood economies based on land-use plans and describe whether these are related to the distinctive economic development of the neighbourhood over the period 1999-2007. © 2013 Taylor & Francis.

A Conceptual Foresight Model to Investigate the Adoption of Radio Frequency Identification Technology in the English National Health Service

Radio Frequency Identification Technology (RFID) adoption in healthcare settings has the potential to reduce errors, improve patient safety, streamline operational processes and enable the sharing of information throughout supply chains. RFID adoption in the English NHS is limited to isolated pilot studies. Firstly, this study investigates the drivers and inhibitors to RFID adoption in the English NHS from the perspective of the GS1 Healthcare User Group (HUG) tasked with coordinating adoption across private and public sectors. Secondly a conceptual model has been developed and deployed, combining two of foresight’s most popular methods; scenario planning and technology roadmapping. The model addresses the weaknesses of each foresight technique as well as capitalizing on their individual, inherent strengths. Semi structured interviews, scenario planning workshops and a technology roadmapping exercise were conducted with the members of the HUG over an 18-month period. An action research mode of enquiry was utilized with a thematic analysis approach for the identification and discussion of the drivers and inhibitors of RFID adoption. The results of the conceptual model are analysed in comparison to other similar models. There are implications for managers responsible for RFID adoption in both the NHS and its commercial partners, and for foresight practitioners. Managers can leverage the insights gained from identifying the drivers and inhibitors to RFID adoption by making efforts to influence the removal of inhibitors and supporting the continuation of the drivers. The academic contribution of this aspect of the thesis is in the field of RFID adoption in healthcare settings. Drivers and inhibitors to RFID adoption in the English NHS are compared to those found in other settings. The implication for technology foresight practitioners is a proof of concept of a model combining scenario planning and technology roadmapping using a novel process. The academic contribution to the field of technology foresight is the conceptual development of foresight model that combines two popular techniques and then a deployment of the conceptual foresight model in a healthcare setting exploring the future of RFID technology.

Identification, distribution, and probability of infection in sympatric gastropods by digenean parasites at Pa-hay-okee, Everglades National Park using molecules and morphology

In this study, I determined the identity, taxonomic placement, and distribution of digenetic trematodes parasitizing the snails Pomacea paludosa and Planorbella duryi at Pa-hay-okee, Everglades National Park. I also characterized temporal and geographic variation in the probability of parasite infection for these snails based on two years of sampling. Although studies indicate that digenean parasites may have important effects both on individual species and the structure of communities, there have been no studies of digenean parasitism on snails within the Everglades ecosystem. For example, the endangered Everglade Snail Kite, a specialist that feeds almost exclusively on Pomacea paludosa, and is known to be a definitive host of digenean parasites, may suffer direct and indirect effects from consumption of parasitized apple snails. Therefore, information on the diversity and abundance of parasites harbored in snail populations in the Everglades should be of considerable interest for management and conservation of wildlife. Juvenile digeneans (cercariae) representing 20 species were isolated from these two snails, representing a quadrupling of the number of species known. Species were characterized based on morphological, morphometric, and sequence data (18S rDNA, COI, and ITS). Species richness of shed cercariae from P. duryi was greater than P. paludosa, with 13 and 7 species respectively. These species represented 14 families. P. paludosa and P. duryi had no digenean species in common. Probability of digenean infection was higher for P. duryi than P. paludosa and adults showed a greater risk of infection than juveniles for both of these snails. Planorbella duryi showed variation in probability of infection between sampling sites and hydrological seasons. The number of unique combinations of multi-species infections was greatest among P. duryi individuals, while the overall percentage of multi-species infections was greatest in P. paludosa. Analyses of six frequently-observed multiple infections from P. duryi suggest the presence of negative interactions, positive interactions, and neutral associations between larval digeneans. These results should contribute to an understanding of the factors controlling the abundance and distribution of key species in the Everglades ecosystem and may in particular help in the management and recovery planning for the Everglade Snail Kite.

Improving Analytical Travel Time Estimation for Transportation Planning Models

This dissertation aimed to improve travel time estimation for the purpose of transportation planning by developing a travel time estimation method that incorporates the effects of signal timing plans, which were difficult to consider in planning models. For this purpose, an analytical model has been developed. The model parameters were calibrated based on data from CORSIM microscopic simulation, with signal timing plans optimized using the TRANSYT-7F software. Independent variables in the model are link length, free-flow speed, and traffic volumes from the competing turning movements. The developed model has three advantages compared to traditional link-based or node-based models. First, the model considers the influence of signal timing plans for a variety of traffic volume combinations without requiring signal timing information as input. Second, the model describes the non-uniform spatial distribution of delay along a link, this being able to estimate the impacts of queues at different upstream locations of an intersection and attribute delays to a subject link and upstream link. Third, the model shows promise of improving the accuracy of travel time prediction. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model is 13% for a set of field data from Minnesota Department of Transportation (MDOT); this is close to the MAPE of uniform delay in the HCM 2000 method (11%). The HCM is the industrial accepted analytical model in the existing literature, but it requires signal timing information as input for calculating delays. The developed model also outperforms the HCM 2000 method for a set of Miami-Dade County data that represent congested traffic conditions, with a MAPE of 29%, compared to 31% of the HCM 2000 method. The advantages of the proposed model make it feasible for application to a large network without the burden of signal timing input, while improving the accuracy of travel time estimation. An assignment model with the developed travel time estimation method has been implemented in a South Florida planning model, which improved assignment results.