ロウハーニー大統領の登場から核協議の進展へ -- 米国オバマ政権の対イラン外交の転換と日本

The recent rapprochement between Iran and the United States after Hassan Rouhani was elected president in June 2013 may represent an important geopolitical shift that would alter the politics of the Middle East. The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate this political shift, examine whether the interim nuclear agreement between Iran and the United States would lead to some structural shifts in the Middle East, and analyze to what extent this change can be sustainable for both sides. The main Part of this paper is divided into three sections. The first section examines in detail the process of Iran's Presidential election in June 2013, especially the sudden change of atmosphere which took place just three days before election day. The second section is devoted to analyzing the Obama administration’s shift to diplomacy with Iran. And the third section treats the on-going nuclear negotiations between Iran and P5+1, which is expected to reach a comprehensive solution. The paper argues that the dramatic shift in the US policy toward Iran is not limited to the bilateral relationships between the US and Iran, but it is related to several key issues in the Middle East, in particular to those in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. This changing process in Iranian politics and the path to diplomacy is profitable for Japanese national interest, and that Japan should also contribute to Iran's return to the international community.

Lebanon and the Syrian conflict 2011-2013

2011年に発生したアラブ世界での民衆蜂起は、市民としてのアラブ人が近代的で民主的な国家を建設しようとする努力であった。その意味でアラブ民衆蜂起が発生した主な原因はもっぱら国内要因であり、そこに地域的、国際的な介入が加わったのである。アラブ民衆蜂起はシリアでは内戦に発展し、その影響は現在周辺国にも及んでいる。シリアが内戦に至った要因を理解するためには、シリアとそれを取り巻く現状を理解するだけでなく，シリアという国家が持つ歴史、なかでもフランス委任統治期の分断統治政策の失敗、ハーフィズ・アサドによる独裁体制の構築と継続、イスラエルによる干渉といったシリア現代史の影響を検討することが重要である。シリア内戦はレバノン、ヨルダン、トルコなどの周辺国にも少なからぬ影響を与えている。シリア難民の流出は、レバノンとヨルダンにとって社会と経済の負荷となっている。またシリア国内の分断と混乱は、レバノンの国内宗派対立をも先鋭化させた。他方でシリア内戦が長期化するにともない、イスラエルによるシリアとレバノンへの干渉が懸念されるようになっている。シリア内戦およびそれに対するイスラエルの対応は、結果的にレバノンへの大きな圧力となった。今後レバノンが主権国家としての安定的な地位を維持するためには、シリア内戦への政治的な関与を避け，国内各勢力の融和および各勢力の協調による国家運営を進めることがこれまで以上に必要である。

「アラブの春」後の移行期過程 -- 帰結を分ける諸要因

Diverging outcomes are unfolding in the post-Arab Uprising countries' transitional processes. In January 2014, Tunisia successfully adopted a new constitution based on a consensus of the opposing political parties and factions. In contrast, Egypt abolished one constitution and hastily instituted another in a time span of slightly more than a year. Yemen has announced the final document of the National Dialogue Conference in the same month. Libyans finally voted for the long awaited and disputed elections of the Constitutional Drafting Committee in February 2014. The paper picks up three factors which seem to be influential in determining the modality of transitional political process in the four Post-Arab spring countries. The first is the initial conditions of the transitional politics.. Differences in the way the previous regimes collapsed are analyzed to illuminate the continuity and break of the ruling institutions and state apparatus. The second factor is the type of the interim government. In line with Shain and Linz typology, provisional, power-sharing, caretaker, and international interim government models are applied to clarify the types of interim governments in each four countries' different phases in transitional politics. The third is the "rules of the game," particularly those pertaining to the constitutional process. Who set what kind of rules and how are to be considered in each of four countries and possible influences of each set of the rules of the game to the diverging results of the transitional politics are considered.

ISIS and the climate of fear -- a political-psychology perspective

2014年6月のイスラーム国（以下ISIS）のメディアへの華々しい登場以降、米国政治を規定する主要な要因の1つとして「恐怖心」がかつてない程の重要性を帯びてきている。本稿では政治心理学的な分析手法を援用しつつ、ISISが何よりも「テロ攻撃集団」としていかに「恐怖心」を醸成するための洗練された戦略を実践しているか、またそれが統計的には圧倒的に中東現地のムスリム一般住民を標的にしており、本来的にS.ハンティントン的な「西欧文明に敵対するイスラーム」という問題を内包していないにもかかわらず、米国エスタブリッシュメントによる他者への「恐怖心」によって如何に本質が曲解されて「ムスリム排斥」のような情緒的な政治主張に向かわせているかの契機を分析する。筆者は論稿中でマキャベリから以降最近に至るまでの政治学関係の議論を渉猟しつつ、「恐怖心」をめぐる問題が「テロル」との関係においていかに扱われてきたかを再検討し、西欧のメディアにおける「テロ集団」としてのISISの登場が政治学的な観点から提起している問題の新しさと古さを跡付けようとする。同時に現在の米国社会を覆っているイスラモフォビアの情緒的反応についてもその淵源が古くかつ政治的に根深い問題から発していることを指摘している。本論稿の分析は直接的にはISISによって政治的な雰囲気が大きく変容するなかで大統領選挙の年を迎えている米国の国内政治を扱うものであるが、ここでの議論は「アラブの春」以降のシリア危機に発する難民問題に直面している欧州（EU）や、2015年11月のパリのテロ多発事件以降緊迫した雰囲気に覆われているフランスの政治状況にも通底しており、その意味では偶々2014年にISIS によって惹起されたとはいえそれ自体が自律的な展開の契機を内包する現代社会の政治的な抑圧的システムのグローバルな拡大と拡散に警鐘を鳴らそうとするものである。

Sight distance for traffic safety analysis using GIS

Sight distance is of major importance for road safety either when designing new roads or analysing the alignment of existing roads. It is essential that available sight distance in roads is long enough for emergency stops or overtaking manoeuvres. Also, it is vital for engineers/researchers that the tools used for that analysis are both powerful and intuitive. Based on ArcGIS, the application to be presented not only performs an exhaustive sight distance calculation, but allows an accurate analysis of 3D alignment, using all new tools, from a Digital Elevation Model and vehicle trajectory. The software has been successfully utilised to analyse several two-lane rural roads in Spain. In addition, the software produces thematic maps representing sight distance in which supplementary information about crashes, traffic flow, speed or design consistency could be included, allowing traffic safety studies.

La habitación subterránea en la Península Ibérica : investigación geológica

La habitación rupestre en la Península Ibérica conforma un amplio conjunto de manifestaciones cuyos orígenes son difíciles de dilucidar. Existen conjuntos primitivos, posiblemente horadados durante la Antigüedad Clásica y Tardía, y otros que probablemente se originaron y excavaron en la Alta Edad Media, en los que se mezclan grupos de origen religioso y otros de probable uso defensivo. El conjunto peninsular es sin duda el más variado de Europa Occidental, pues recibió influencias árabes y usos de la cristiandad antigua, importados de Oriente Próximo, que por tanto relacionan estas manifestaciones con otras del arco mediterráneo. La supervivencia del uso de las cuevas a lo largo de la Baja Edad Media -una vez afianzada la Reconquista- es una incógnita, pero los usos rupestres volvieron a generalizarse en ciertos sectores de la Península durante la Edad Moderna, toda vez que el hábitat cuevero manifestó una eclosión relacionada con la peripecia de los moriscos, primero desterrados de sus habitaciones en el Sur y Este peninsular y luego expulsados en los albores del siglo XVII. Los que quedaron, nominalmente conversos, debieron habitar de nuevo cuevas en sus lugares de origen. Esos núcleos son los más abundantes, particularmente en la provincia de Granada y aledañas. Este substrato fue seguramente el punto de apoyo para la proliferación de las cuevas de habitación a partir del siglo XIX, en el cual un creciente proletariado agrícola y urbano necesitó de alojamientos baratos y no hizo sino imitar usos preexistentes, que se pueden rastrear en muchos de los núcleos rupestres que sobrevivieron mayoritariamente hasta bien entrado el siglo XX, y que se abandonaron gradualmente a partir de los años 60 de esa centuria. Para entonces, existían barrios de cuevas extensos en muchas provincias, destacando, aparte de las andaluzas, ciertas zonas de la Cuenca del Ebro (aragonesa, navarra y riojana), del arco periurbano de Valencia, del Sur de Madrid, de la Mancha toledana, o de las provincias de Albacete, Guadalajara, Murcia e incluso de Palencia. Los núcleos antiguos se excavaron -en razón de su origen dedicado a defensa y refugio- en lugares poco accesibles, que mayoritariamente se dan en relieves anfractuosos, en las orlas marginales detríticas y carbonatadas de las cuencas terciarias y en terrenos más antiguos de la geológicamente denominada Cuenca Vasco Cantábrica, en las cuales florecieron centros de eremitismo del primitivo condado de Castilla. También son lugares inaccesibles los riscos asomados a cantiles fluviales, cuya regularización morfológica natural ha sido causa de la ruina de múltiples hipogeos que se labraron con las mismas intenciones de refugio, defensa o retiro espiritual. Los núcleos modernos se han excavado ya en terrenos más propicios (los que componen las cuencas terciarias o "España arcillosa", mayoritariamente), y por ello observamos cómo abundan las litologías sedimentarias, que son aquellas en las que se horadaron casi todas las "colmenas" de habitación moderna en la Península. En unos casos y otros, existen rasgos comunes en lo relativo a la litología y comportamiento de los materiales excavados, y también en lo relativo a su evolución, meteorización y conservación. Se han estudiado por ello estas pautas comunes -como un posible avance para el establecimiento futuro de estudios de geoconservación del patrimonio rupestre habitado-, que se traducen en la determinación de los procesos de meteorización más característicos en los antros de la Península Ibérica -sean modernos o antiguos- y en la determinación de las relaciones más habituales entre geomorfología y tipología de las cuevas de habitación. También se exponen algunas conclusiones relativas a la resistencia de los tipos pétreos en relación a la antigüedad de los emplazamientos. Esta relación se explica bien si tenemos en cuenta que las cuevas antiguas trataban de ser lugares apartados en los que dominan rocas más resistentes -como se ha explicado- y que en las modernas se ha buscado la habitación permanente, en los materiales más blandos ocupan las depresiones terciarias del Centro, Este y Sur de la Península, colonizados no ya como refugios sino de modo seguro, y ya en arrabales "extramuros" de las ciudades. Geomorfológicamente, esta razón histórica tiene consecuencias sobre la posición de las cuevas, sobre su organización, y sobre su conservación. La extensión del dominio estudiado obliga prácticamente a bosquejar algunas de estas conclusiones geológicas, pero permite a su vez proporcionar una visión global acerca del patrimonio troglodítico desde una perspectiva geológica, y en ello radica la principal novedad de la investigación. Cave dwelling in the Iberian Peninsula comprises a great deal of examples whose origins are sometimes difficult to elucidate. There are primitive groups of caves, probably belonging to Classical and Late Antiquity, and other settlements that appear to have been created and excavated in the Early Middle Ages. Some of them are due to religious reasons and some others may probably have served for defensive uses. The Peninsular group is very likely the most diverse in Western Europe, for it was not only influenced by Arabs, but it also assimilated uses from the Antique Christendom, imported from the Middle East. In this sense, Iberian cave dwellings connect with those of the Mediterranean area. There is not total certainty about the survival of caves serving for dwelling throughout the Late Middle Ages, once the Reconquista was a fact. However, underground excavations for human habitation were once again dispread in certain zones of the Peninsula during the Early Modern period. This growth of underground habitats appears in connexion with Morisco’s vicissitudes; first of all, their removal from their settlements in South and Eastern Peninsula, and finally their expulsion from Spanish territory at the very beginning of XVII th century. Those of them who rested in Spain –and that were nominally “converts”- seem to have returned to cave dwelling in their places of origin, particularly in the province of Granada and its neighbouring zones. This substrate may have been the toehold for a new spreading of cave dwellings since XIX th century, when the increasing rural and urban proletariat returned to the pre-existent uses of caves in order to solve the necessity of affordable housing. This fact can still be detected in many of the rock settlements that have survived during a great part of the XX th century and which were gradually abandoned from the 60´s onwards. There were important cave dwelling districts in many Spanish territories by that time, and not only in Andalusia. We also find them in certain areas of the Ebro basin (those of Aragon, Navarra and La Rioja), in the peri-urban arc of Valencia, in the South of Madrid province and also in the provinces of Toledo (the so called “Mancha toledana”), Albacete, Guadalajara, Murcia or even Palencia as well. Due to their defensive and refuge uses, primitive underground habitats were dug in hardly accessible places. The majority of them are located in mountainous and rough areas, when not in the marginal borders of Tertiary basins, where coarse detritic and carbonate formations outcrop. Cave dwellings can also be found in more ancient rock masses, such as those of the Basque Cantabrian Mesozoic Basin, which is the area where hermit centres of the primitive County of Castile first flourished. Cliffs surrounding fluvial valleys are as well inaccessible places, but here we find that geological evolution has caused the destruction of many rock sanctuaries and cliff dwellings that were originally dug with the same purposes of defence, refuge and spiritual retreat. Later modern cave settlements were dug in quite more favourable terrains, mainly in the soils that compose the Tertiary basins, generally known as “España arcillosa” or “Clayey Spain”. Therefore, we find abundant sedimentary fine and medium grained lithologies, which are the ones that have hosted the majority of Modern Era warren cave dwellings in the Iberian Peninsula. Actually, both types of cave dwelling share some standards regarding the lithology of the excavated materials, and they share as well certain patterns that affect to their evolution, weathering and preservation. These common patterns have been studied here in order to determine the most characteristic weathering processes that affect the majority of the Iberian caves, both Antique and Modern. And also with a view to establish the most habitual relationships between geomorphology and typology of cave dwellings. The study may as well provide a first basis for future studies on geo-preservation of cave dwellings heritage. We also reach some conclusions about the strength of different rocks concerning the antiquity of the sites. As we have already pointed out, this relation comes from the fact that ancient caves were placed in remote or isolated locations, where harder rocks outcrop, while more modern ones result from people´s search of permanent dwelling. In this sense, the softer rocks of the Tertiary Basins of Middle, East and South Peninsula provided a secure colonization to this second and modern group. And moreover, considering geomorphological features, this historical reason has had an effect not only on the position and location of the caves, but also on their organisation/structure/distribution and preservation. The huge extension of our domain of interest almost forces to sketch out some of these geological conclusions. But at the same time it gives a global panorama of Spanish troglodyte heritage, seen from a geological perspective. And here is the main novelty of this research.

PARA UMA PAZ SEM FIM : Um estudo, sócio-político e teológico, da tipologia messiânica nas perícopes de Isaías 7,10-17 e 8,23-9,6.

O ato de ungir, do qual se origina o termo messias, era um costume dos povos do Antigo Oriente Médio e foi assimilado por Israel. O Antigo Testamento, porém, reinterpretou esta unção. Ele atribuiu ao rei, num primeiro momento, o título de ungido, maxiah;. Nesta perspectiva, o rei Davi foi aquele que deu origem à mentalidade messiânica em Israel. E a respeito da teologia messiânica, o profeta Isaías tornou-se um dos seus expoentes. Ele se dirige à classe alta de Jerusalém e propõe um Ungido de Javé em substituição ao rei da casa de Davi. Isto porque, o messianismo também se tornou um movimento de resistência frente a não observância da justiça e do direito, que culmina com a ausência da paz. Nesse sentido, Isaías apresenta também uma nova percepção do messianismo, a saber, uma ruptura com a casa de Davi (7,17). Este messias não estava sob os critérios humanos de um bom rei, forte e guerreiro, mas sob a direção do Espírito de Javé. Por isso, ele poderá ser um messias criança (7,14; 9,5). Esta dissertação tem, portanto, a finalidade de percorrer o caminho do surgimento do ungido, ou do ato de se ungir, até a concepção isaiânica de messias. Esse desenvolvimento mostrará, ao final do trabalho, a tipologia messiânica apresentada pelo profeta Isaías, a partir das perícopes de 7,10-17 e 8,23-9,6.(AU)