Derivation and external validation of a simple prediction model for the diagnosis of type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in the Brazilian urban population

A risk score model was developed based in a population of 1,224 individuals from the general population without known diabetes aging 35 years or more from an urban Brazilian population sample in order to select individuals who should be screened in subsequent testing and improve the efficacy of public health assurance. External validation was performed in a second, independent, population from a different city ascertained through a similar epidemiological protocol. The risk score was developed by multiple logistic regression and model performance and cutoff values were derived from a receiver operating characteristic curve. Model`s capacity of predicting fasting blood glucose levels was tested analyzing data from a 5-year follow-up protocol conducted in the general population. Items independently and significantly associated with diabetes were age, BMI and known hypertension. Sensitivity, specificity and proportion of further testing necessary for the best cutoff value were 75.9, 66.9 and 37.2%, respectively. External validation confirmed the model`s adequacy (AUC equal to 0.72). Finally, model score was also capable of predicting fasting blood glucose progression in non-diabetic individuals in a 5-year follow-up period. In conclusion, this simple diabetes risk score was able to identify individuals with an increased likelihood of having diabetes and it can be used to stratify subpopulations in which performing of subsequent tests is necessary and probably cost-effective.

Prediction of psychological adjustment to multiple sclerosis

This study examined the utility of self-efficacy as a predictor of social activity and mood control in multiple sclerosis (MS). Seventy-one subjects with MS were recruited from people attending an MS centre or from a mailing list and were examined on two occasions that were two months apart. Clinic patients were more disabled than patients who completed assessments by post, but they were of higher socioeconomic status and were less dysphoric; We attempted to predict self-reported performance of mood control and social activity at two months, from self-efficacy or performance on these tasks at pretest. Demographic variables, disorder status, disability, self-esteem and depression were also allowed to compete for entry into multiple regressions. Substantial stability in mood, performance and disability was observed over the two months. In both mood control and social activity, past performance was the strongest predictor of later performance, but self-efficacy also contributed significantly to the prediction. The disability level entered a prediction of social activity; but no other variables predicted either type of performance. A secondary analysis predicting self-esteem at two months also included self-efficacy for social activity, illustrating the contribution of perceived capability to later assessments of self-worth. The study provided support for self-efficacy as a predictor of later behavioural outcomes and self-esteem in multiple sclerosis. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Laboratory wear testing of polyurethane elastomers

A dry sand-rubber wheel abrasion test was used to investigate the wear behaviour of polyurethanes. The dry sand-rubber wheel abrasion test (DSRW test) is an approved ASTM test designed primarily for testing metals, therefore, in this study the set of test conditions was optimized for use with polyurethane elastomers. The wear performance of polyurethanes was assessed for the range of Shore hardness 85A to 65D, and a correlation was identified between the wear rate and the sample hardness. Polyurethane elastomers can be separated into three classes according to their hardness and wear performance, and each class shows a different dependence on the specimen temperature. This work has implications for use of the DSRW test for the prediction of field performance of polyurethanes. (C) Elsevier Science S.A.

Analyzing the connectivity between regions of interest: An approach based on cluster Granger causality for NRI data analysis

The identification, modeling, and analysis of interactions between nodes of neural systems in the human brain have become the aim of interest of many studies in neuroscience. The complex neural network structure and its correlations with brain functions have played a role in all areas of neuroscience, including the comprehension of cognitive and emotional processing. Indeed, understanding how information is stored, retrieved, processed, and transmitted is one of the ultimate challenges in brain research. In this context, in functional neuroimaging, connectivity analysis is a major tool for the exploration and characterization of the information flow between specialized brain regions. In most functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies, connectivity analysis is carried out by first selecting regions of interest (ROI) and then calculating an average BOLD time series (across the voxels in each cluster). Some studies have shown that the average may not be a good choice and have suggested, as an alternative, the use of principal component analysis (PCA) to extract the principal eigen-time series from the ROI(s). In this paper, we introduce a novel approach called cluster Granger analysis (CGA) to study connectivity between ROIs. The main aim of this method was to employ multiple eigen-time series in each ROI to avoid temporal information loss during identification of Granger causality. Such information loss is inherent in averaging (e.g., to yield a single ""representative"" time series per ROI). This, in turn, may lead to a lack of power in detecting connections. The proposed approach is based on multivariate statistical analysis and integrates PCA and partial canonical correlation in a framework of Granger causality for clusters (sets) of time series. We also describe an algorithm for statistical significance testing based on bootstrapping. By using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the proposed approach outperforms conventional Granger causality analysis (i.e., using representative time series extracted by signal averaging or first principal components estimation from ROIs). The usefulness of the CGA approach in real fMRI data is illustrated in an experiment using human faces expressing emotions. With this data set, the proposed approach suggested the presence of significantly more connections between the ROIs than were detected using a single representative time series in each ROI. (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Testing market efficiency: Evidence from the NFL sports betting market

This article examines the efficiency of the National Football League (NFL) betting market. The standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression methodology is replaced by a probit model. This circumvents potential econometric problems, and allows us to implement more sophisticated betting strategies where bets are placed only when there is a relatively high probability of success. In-sample tests indicate that probit-based betting strategies generate statistically significant profits. Whereas the profitability of a number of these betting strategies is confirmed by out-of-sample testing, there is some inconsistency among the remaining out-of-sample predictions. Our results also suggest that widely documented inefficiencies in this market tend to dissipate over time.

Lymphocyte proliferation testing in chromium allergic contact dermatitis

Background. Lymphocyte proliferation testing (LPT) has some advantages over patch testing to diagnose allergic contact dermatitis. It is harmless, objective and can be used in clinical situations where patch testing is not recommended. Unfortunately, significant success has only been achieved with nickel. There are few studies on chromium LPT and they were performed with different methods, leading to inconsistent results. Methods. To determine the best parameters for chromium LPT, we tested 20 patients with allergic contact dermatitis to the metal and 20 controls, using various protocols. Results. The best sensitivity and specificity ratios were achieved with 6-day cultures stimulated with a range from 7.5 x 10(-4) to 5 x 10(-3) mol/L of nonfiltered chromium chloride solutions. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy values found within this range were 65%, 95% and 80%, respectively. Conclusion. Further investigation is necessary to achieve better sensitivity values.

Measuring macromolecular diffusion using heteronuclear multiple-quantum pulsed-field-gradient NMR

We have previously shown that H-1 pulsed-field-gradient (PFG) NMR spectroscopy provides a facile method for monitoring protein self-association and can be used, albeit with some caveats, to measure the apparent molecular mass of the diffusant [Dingley et al. (1995) J. Biomol. NMR, 6, 321-328]. In this paper we show that, for N-15-labelled proteins, selection of H-1-N-15 multiple-quantum (MQ) coherences in PFG diffusion experiments provides several advantages over monitoring H-1 single-quantum (SQ) magnetization. First, the use of a gradient-selected MQ filter provides a convenient means of suppressing resonances from both the solvent and unlabelled solutes. Second, H-1-N-15 zero-quantum coherence dephases more rapidly than H-1 SQ coherence under the influence of a PFG. This allows the diffusion coefficients of larger proteins to be measured more readily. Alternatively, the gradient length and/or the diffusion delay may be decreased, thereby reducing signal losses from relaxation. In order to extend the size of macromolecules to which these experiments can be applied, we have developed a new MQ PFG diffusion experiment in which the magnetization is stored as longitudinal two-spin order for most of the diffusion period, thus minimizing sensitivity losses due to transverse relaxation and J-coupling evolution.

An isolated perfused human placental lobule model for multiple indicator dilution studies

We describe a method for multiple indicator dilution studies in the isolated perfused human placental lobule developed to investigate the relationships between changes in pressure and flow and solute clearance. A peripheral lobule of a human placenta is perfused with a tissue culture-based medium and the perfusate oxygen tension, arterial and venous pressures, pH and perfusion temperature continuously monitored by a computerized system. Flow rates are readily changed. Bolus injections of vascular, extracellular and water space markers, and study compounds can be made into either maternal or fetal circulations, and precisely timed outflow fractions can be collected with computer-controlled fraction collectors, allowing simultaneous determination of concentration-time profiles of each marker. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Inc.

Impulse-response studies on tracer doses of [C-14]lignocaine and its multiple metabolites in the perfused rat liver

The outflow-concentration-time profiles for lignocaine (lidocaine) and its metabolites have been measured after bolus impulse administration of [C-14]lignocaine into the perfused rat liver. Livers from female Sprague-Dawley rats were perfused in a once-through fashion with red-blood-cell-free Krebs-Henseleit buffer containing 0 or 2% bovine serum albumin. Perfusate flow rates of 20 and 30 mL min(-1) were used and both normal and retrograde flow directions were employed. Significant amounts of metabolite were detected in the effluent perfusate soon after lignocaine injection. The early appearance of metabolite contributed to bimodal outflow profiles observed for total C-14 radioactivity. The lignocaine outflow profiles were well characterized by the two-compartment dispersion model, with efflux rate << influx rate. The profiles for lignocaine metabolites were also characterized in terms of a simplified two-compartment dispersion model. Lignocaine was found to be extensively metabolized under the experimental conditions with the hepatic availability ranging between 0.09 and 0.18. Generally lignocaine and metabolite availability showed no significant change with alterations in perfusate flow rate from 20 to 30 mt min(-1) or protein content from 0 to 2%. A significant increase in lignocaine availability occurred when 1200 mu M unlabelled lignocaine was added to the perfusate. Solute mean transit times generally decreased with increasing flow rate and with increasing perfusate protein content. The results confirm that lignocaine pharmacokinetics in the liver closely follow the predictions of the well-stirred model. The increase in lignocaine availability when 1200 mu M unlabelled lignocaine was added to the perfusate is consistent with saturation of the hydroxylation metabolic pathways of lignocaine metabolism.

Use of multiple channel pH monitoring for evaluation of ultra-distal reflux in patients after fundoplication for treatment of Barrett`s esophagus

Dysplasia and esophageal adenocarcinoma may arise in patients with Barrett`s esophagus after fundoplication esophageal pH monitoring showing no acid in esophagus. This suggests the need to develop methodology to evaluate the occurrence of ultra-distal reflux (1 cm above the LES). The objective of the study was to compare acid exposition in three different levels: 5 cm above the upper border of the LES, 1 cm above the LES and in the intrasphincteric region. Eleven patients with Barrett`s esophagus after Nissen fundoplication with no clinical, endoscopic and radiologic evidence of reflux were selected. Four-channel pH monitoring took place: channel A, 5 cm above the upper border of the LES; channel B, 1 cm above the LES; channel C, intrasphincteric; channel D, intragastric. The results of channels A, B and C were compared. There was significant increase in number of reflux episodes and a higher fraction of time with pH <4.0 in channel B compared to channel A. There was significant decrease in fraction of time with pH <4.0 in channel B compared to channel C. Two cases of esophageal adenocarcinoma were diagnosed in the studied patients. The region 1 cm above the upper border of the LES is more exposed to acid than the region 5 cm above the upper border of the LES, although this exposure occurred in reduced levels. The region 1 cm above the upper border of the LES is less exposed to acid than the intrasphincteric region.

Novel gene containing multiple epidermal growth factor-like motifs transiently expressed in the papillae of the ascidian tadpole larvae

We have investigated molecular mechanisms of the embryonic development of an ascidian, a primitive chordate which shares features of both invertebrates and vertebrates, with a view to identifying genes involved in development and metamorphosis, We isolated 12 partial cDNA sequences which were expressed in a stage-specific manner using differential display, We report here the isolation of a full-length cDNA sequence for one of these genes which was specifically expressed during the tailbud and larval stages of ascidian development, This cDNA, 1213 bp in length, is predicted to encode a protein of 337 amino acids containing four epidermal growth factor (EGF)-like repeats and three novel cysteine-rich repeats, Characterization of its spatial expression pattern by in situ hybridisation in late tailbud and larval embryos demonstrated strong expression localised throughout the papillae and anteriormost trunk and weaker expression in the epidermis of the remainder of the embryo, As recent evidence indicates that the signal for metamorphosis originates in the anterior trunk region, these results suggest that this gene may have a role in signalling the initiation of metamorphosis. (C) 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Long-Term Nutritional Outcome After Gastric Bypass

Weight loss and nutritional status 5 or more years after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass was prospectively documented. The hypothesis was that even after clinical adaptation, imbalances might still occur. Seventy-five consecutive patients (age 49.3 +/- 10.6 years, 89.3% females) were recruited 83.4 +/- 14.3 months after the intervention. Weight loss and nutritional abnormalities were registered. Body mass index (BMI) was 56.5 +/- 10.0 preoperatively, 29.4 +/- 6. 2 by 24 months and 34.4 +/- 14.6 when last seen. Major current deficit occurred for magnesium (32.1% of the patients), hemoglobin (50.8%), iron (29.8%), ferritin (36.0%), zinc (40.5%), vitamin B(12) (61.8%), vitamin D(3) (60.5%), and beta-carotene (56.8%). Low preoperative measurements had already been unveiled for iron, transferrin, zinc, and vitamin B(12). Total drug consumption tended to decrease after operation, and present findings correlated with excess weight loss (EWL). Also presence of diabetes and BMI value were predictors of long-term EWL, along with biochemical profile by 2 years. Multivitamin supplementation and gastrointestinal complaints partially correlated with nutritional results. (1) Good initial weight loss with moderate late regain, anemia, and multiple nutrient deficits was the common pattern. (2) Massive weight loss, frequent vomiting, dumping syndrome, and women in reproductive age were risk factors for hemoglobin or vitamin deficits, whereas superobesity, diabetes, and use of multiple drugs were associated with EWL result. (3) Most laboratory tests became stable by 2 years and along with BMI correlated with late EWL. (4) Two-year nutritional investigation is especially recommended because of its long-term predictive value.

Differences Between ""Classical"" Risk Factors for Infections Caused by Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Risk Factors for Nosocomial Bloodstream Infections Caused by Multiple Clones of the Staphylococcal Cassette Chromosome mec Type IV MRSA Strain

OBJECTIVE. To identify risk factors associated with nosocomial bloodstream infections caused by multiple clones of the staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) type IV strain of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). DESIGN. An unmatched case-control study (at a ratio of 1 : 2) performed during the period from October 2002 through September 2003. SETTING. A 2,000-bed tertiary care teaching hospital affiliated with the University of Sao Paulo in Sao Paulo, Brazil. METHODS. Case patients (n = 30) were defined either as patients who had a bloodstream infection due to SCCmec type IV strains of MRSA diagnosed at least 48 hours after hospital admission or as neonates with the infection who were born in the hospital. Control patients (n = 60) were defined as patients with SCCmec type III MRSA infection diagnosed at least 48 hours after hospital admission. Genes n = 60 encoding virulence factors were studied in the isolates recovered from case patients, and molecular typing of the SCCmec type IV MRSA isolates was also done by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and multilocus sequence typing. RESULTS. In multivariate analysis, the following 3 variables were significantly associated with having a nosocomial bloodstream infection caused by SCCmec type IV strains of MRSA: an age of less than 1 year, less frequent use of a central venous catheter (odds ratio [OR], 0.07 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.02-0.28]; P = .001), and female sex. A second analysis was performed that excluded the case and Pp. 001 control patients from the neonatal unit, and, in multivariate analysis, the following variables were significantly associated with having a nosocomial bloodstream infection caused by SCCmec type IV strains of MRSA: less frequent use of a central venous catheter (OR, 0.12 [95% CI, 0.03-0.55]; P = .007), lower Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score on admission (OR, 0.14 [95% CI, 0.03-0.61];), less frequent surgery (OR, 0.21 [95% CI, 0.06-0.83];), and female sex (OR, 5.70 [95% CI, 1.32-24.66]; P =.020). P = .009 Pp. 025 Pp). Of the 29 SCCmec type IV MRSA isolates recovered from case patients, none contained the Panton-Valentine leukocidin, gamma-hemolysin, enterotoxin B or C, or toxic shock syndrome toxin-1. All of the isolates contained genes for the LukE-LukD leukocidin and alpha-hemolysin. Genes for enterotoxin A were present in 1 isolate, and genes for beta-hemolysin were present in 3 isolates. CONCLUSIONS. ""Classical"" risk factors do not apply to patients infected with the SCCmec type IV strain of MRSA, which is an important cause of nosocomial bacteremia. This strain infects a patient population that is less ill and has had less frequent invasive procedures than a patient population infected with the multidrug-resistant strain of SCCmec type III MRSA. We found that virulence factors were rare and that Panton-Valentine leukocidin was absent. There were multiple clones of the SCCmec type IV strain in our hospital. Children under 1 year of age were at a higher risk. There was a predominant clone ( sequence type 5) in this patient population.

THE TEMPO AND MODE OF EVOLUTION OF TRANSPOSABLE ELEMENTS AS REVEALED BY MOLECULAR PHYLOGENIES RECONSTRUCTED FROM MOSQUITO GENOMES

Although many mathematical models exist predicting the dynamics of transposable elements (TEs), there is a lack of available empirical data to validate these models and inherent assumptions. Genomes can provide a snapshot of several TE families in a single organism, and these could have their demographics inferred by coalescent analysis, allowing for the testing of theories on TE amplification dynamics. Using the available genomes of the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Anopheles gambiae, we indicate that such an approach is feasible. Our analysis follows four steps: (1) mining the two mosquito genomes currently available in search of TE families; (2) fitting, to selected families found in (1), a phylogeny tree under the general time-reversible (GTR) nucleotide substitution model with an uncorrelated lognormal (UCLN) relaxed clock and a nonparametric demographic model; (3) fitting a nonparametric coalescent model to the tree generated in (2); and (4) fitting parametric models motivated by ecological theories to the curve generated in (3).

A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.