Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation

The evaluation of forecast performance plays a central role both in the interpretation and use of forecast systems and in their development. Different evaluation measures (scores) are available, often quantifying different characteristics of forecast performance. The properties of several proper scores for probabilistic forecast evaluation are contrasted and then used to interpret decadal probability hindcasts of global mean temperature. The Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), Proper Linear (PL) score, and IJ Good’s logarithmic score (also referred to as Ignorance) are compared; although information from all three may be useful, the logarithmic score has an immediate interpretation and is not insensitive to forecast busts. Neither CRPS nor PL is local; this is shown to produce counter intuitive evaluations by CRPS. Benchmark forecasts from empirical models like Dynamic Climatology place the scores in context. Comparing scores for forecast systems based on physical models (in this case HadCM3, from the CMIP5 decadal archive) against such benchmarks is more informative than internal comparison systems based on similar physical simulation models with each other. It is shown that a forecast system based on HadCM3 out performs Dynamic Climatology in decadal global mean temperature hindcasts; Dynamic Climatology previously outperformed a forecast system based upon HadGEM2 and reasons for these results are suggested. Forecasts of aggregate data (5-year means of global mean temperature) are, of course, narrower than forecasts of annual averages due to the suppression of variance; while the average “distance” between the forecasts and a target may be expected to decrease, little if any discernible improvement in probabilistic skill is achieved.

Phenylephrine promotes phosphorylation of Bad in cardiac myocytes through the extracellular signal-regulated kinases 1/2 and protein kinase A.

Studies in non-cardiomyocytic cells have shown that phosphorylation of the Bcl-2 family protein Bad on Ser-112, Ser-136 and Ser-155 decreases its pro-apoptotic activity. Both phenylephrine (100 microM) and the cell membrane-permeating cAMP analog, 8-(4-chlorophenylthio)-cAMP (100 microM), protected against 2-deoxy-D-glucose-induced apoptosis in neonatal rat cardiac myocytes as assessed by terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL). In cardiac myocytes, phenylephrine primarily stimulates the alpha-adrenoceptor, but, at high concentrations (100 microM), it also increases the activity of the cAMP-dependent protein kinase, protein kinase A (PKA) through the beta-adrenoceptor. Phenylephrine (100 microM) promoted rapid phosphorylation of Bad(Ser-112) and Bad(Ser-155), though we were unable to detect phosphorylation of Bad(Ser-136). Phosphorylation of Bad(Ser-112) was antagonized by either prazosin or propranolol, indicating that this phosphorylation required stimulation of both alpha(1)- and beta-adrenoceptors. Phosphorylation of Bad(Ser-155) was antagonized only by propranolol and was thus mediated through the beta-adrenoceptor. Inhibitor studies and partial purification of candidate kinases by fast protein liquid chromatography showed that the p90 ribosomal S6 kinases, p90RSK2/3 [which are activated by the extracellular signal-regulated kinases 1 and 2 (ERK1/2)] directly phosphorylated Bad(Ser-112), whereas the PKA catalytic subunit directly phosphorylated Bad(Ser-155). However, efficient phosphorylation of Bad(Ser-112) also required PKA activity. These data suggest that, although p90RSK2/3 phosphorylate Bad(Ser-112) directly, phosphorylation of this site is enhanced by phosphorylation of Bad(Ser-155). These phosphorylations potentially diminish the pro-apoptotic activity of Bad and contribute to the cytoprotective effects of phenylephrine and 8-(4-chlorophenylthio)-cAMP.

Integrable maps with non-trivial topology: application to divertor configurations

We explore a method for constructing two-dimensional area-preserving, integrable maps associated with Hamiltonian systems, with a given set of fixed points and given invariant curves. The method is used to find an integrable Poincare map for the field lines in a large aspect ratio tokamak with a poloidal single-null divertor. The divertor field is a superposition of a magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium with an arbitrarily chosen safety factor profile, with a wire carrying an electric current to create an X-point. This integrable map is perturbed by an impulsive perturbation that describes non-axisymmetric magnetic resonances at the plasma edge. The non-integrable perturbed map is applied to study the structure of the open field lines in the scrape-off layer, reproducing the main transport features obtained by integrating numerically the magnetic field line equations, such as the connection lengths and magnetic footprints on the divertor plate.

Photoproduction of J/psi and of high mass e(+)e(-) in ultra-peripheral Au plus Au collisions at root s(NN)=200 GeV

We present the first measurement of photoproduction of J/psi and of two-photon production of high-mass e(+)e(-) pairs in electromagnetic (or ultra-peripheral) nucleus-nucleus interactions, using Au + Au data at root s(NN) = 200 GeV. The events are tagged with forward neutrons emitted following Coulomb excitation of one or both Au* nuclei. The event sample consists of 28 events with m(e+e-) > 2 GeV/c(2) with zero like-sign background. The measured cross sections at midrapidity of d sigma/dy (J/psi + Xn, y = 0) = 76 +/- 33 (stat) +/- 11 (syst) pb and d(2)sigma /dm dy (e(+) e(-) + Xn, y = 0) = 86 +/- 23(stat) +/- 16(syst) mu b/ (GeV/c(2)) for m(e+e-) epsilon vertical bar 2.0, 2.8 vertical bar GeV/c(2) have been compared and found to be consistent with models for photoproduction of J/psi and QED based calculations of two-photon production of e(+)e(-) pairs. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dilepton mass spectra in p plus p collisions at root s=200 GeV

PHENIX has measured the electron-positron pair mass spectrum from 0 to 8 GeV/c(2) in p + p collisions at root s = 200 GeV. The contributions from light meson decays to e(+)e(-) pairs have been determined based on measurements of hadron production cross sections by PHENIX. Within the systematic uncertainty of similar to 20% they account for all e(+)e(-) pairs in the mass region below similar to 1 GeV/c(2). The e(+)e(-) pair yield remaining after subtracting these contributions is dominated by semileptonic decays of charmed hadrons correlated through flavor conservation. Using the spectral shape predicted by PYTHIA, we estimate the charm production cross section to be 544 +/- 39(stat) +/- 142(syst) +/- 200(model) pb. which is consistent with QCD calculations and measurements of single leptons by PHENIX. (C) 2008 Elsevier BV. All rights reserved.

The Recombination Protein RAD52 Cooperates with the Excision Repair Protein OGG1 for the Repair of Oxidative Lesions in Mammalian Cells

Oxidized bases are common types of DNA modifications. Their accumulation in the genome is linked to aging and degenerative diseases. These modifications are commonly repaired by the base excision repair (BER) pathway. Oxoguanine DNA glycosylase (OGG1) initiates BER of oxidized purine bases. A small number of protein interactions have been identified for OGG1, while very few appear to have functional consequences. We report here that OGG1 interacts with the recombination protein RAD52 in vitro and in vivo. This interaction has reciprocal functional consequences as OGG1 inhibits RAD52 catalytic activities and RAD52 stimulates OGG1 incision activity, likely increasing its turnover rate. RAD52 colocalizes with OGG1 after oxidative stress to cultured cells, but not after the direct induction of double-strand breaks by ionizing radiation. Human cells depleted of RAD52 via small interfering RNA knockdown, and mouse cells lacking the protein via gene knockout showed increased sensitivity to oxidative stress. Moreover, cells depleted of RAD52 show higher accumulation of oxidized bases in their genome than cells with normal levels of RAD52. Our results indicate that RAD52 cooperates with OGG1 to repair oxidative DNA damage and enhances the cellular resistance to oxidative stress. Our observations suggest a coordinated action between these proteins that may be relevant when oxidative lesions positioned close to strand breaks impose a hindrance to RAD52 catalytic activities.

The mitochondrial transcription factor A functions in mitochondrial base excision repair

Mitochondrial transcription factor A (TFAM) is an essential component of mitochondrial nucleoids TFAM plays an important role in mitochondrial transcription and replication TFAM has been previously reported to inhibit nucleotide excision repair (NER) in vitro but NER has not yet been detected in mitochondria, whereas base excision repair (BER) has been comprehensively characterized in these organelles The BER proteins are associated with the inner membrane in mitochondria and thus with the mitochondrial nucleoid, where TFAM is also situated However, a function for TFAM in BER has not yet been investigated This study examines the role of TFAM in BER In vitro studies with purified recombinant TFAM indicate that it preferentially binds to DNA containing 8-oxoguanines, but not to abasic sites, uracils, or a gap in the sequence TFAM inhibited the in vitro incision activity of 8-oxoguanine DNA glycosylase (OGG1), uracil-DNA glycosylase (UDG), apurinic endonuclease 1 (APE1), and nucleotide incorporation by DNA polymerase gamma (pol gamma) On the other hand, a DNA binding-defective TFAM mutant, L58A, showed less inhibition of BER in vitro Characterization of TFAM knockdown (KD) cells revealed that these lysates had higher 8oxoG incision activity without changes in alpha OGG1 protein levels TFAM KD cells had mild resistance to menadione and increased damage accumulation in the mtDNA when compared to the control cells In addition, we found that the tumor suppressor p53, which has been shown to interact with and alter the DNA binding activity of TFAM, alleviates TFAM-Induced inhibition of BER proteins Together, the results suggest that TFAM modulates BER in mitochondria by virtue of its DNA binding activity and protein interactions Published by Elsevier B V

Expression of Na+/H+ exchanger mRNA in the gills of the Atlantic hagfish (Myxine glutinosa) in response to metabolic acidosis

Sodium/proton exchangers (NHE) are transmembrane proteins that facilitate the exchange of a Na⁺ ion for a H⁺ ion across cellular membranes. The NHE are present in the gills of fishes and are believed to function in acid-base regulation by driving the extrusion of protons across the branchial epithelium in exchange for Na⁺ in the water. In this study, we have used reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to detect the presence of a branchial NHE in the gills of the Atlantic hagfish, Myxine glutinosa. The subsequent partial cDNA sequence shares homology with other vertebrate and invertebrate NHE isoforms. In addition, using semi-quantitative, multiplex RT-PCR we demonstrate that mRNA expression of hagfish gill NHE is upregulated following an induced metabolic acidosis. Expression was increased to 4.4 times basal levels at 2-h post-infusion and had decreased to 1.6 times basal by 6 h. Expression had returned to basal levels by 24-h post-infusion. The inference from this study is that a gill NHE which is potentially important in acid-base regulation has been present in the vertebrate lineage since before the divergence of the hagfishes from the main vertebrate line.

Microsatellite DNA analysis of southeast Australian Haliotis laevigata (Donovan) populations - implications for ranching in Port Phillip Bay

The genetic composition of greenlip abalone (Haliotis laevigata) from Point Cook in Port Phillip Bay was examined prior to the aggregation of individuals from this site for ranching. The very thinly distributed natural population at Point Cook was believed to be of low genetic diversity, because the animals all originated from a single spawning event 5 y previously. Animals from Point Cook were compared with other H. laevigata from two sampling sites within Port Phillip Bay, and two sites outside the Bay in Bass Strait, to examine their genetic diversity and origin. Variation was assessed at five microsatellite loci. Deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) were observed at some loci in various populations, but the Point Cook population was in HWE at all five loci. Mean heterozygosity and number of alleles was similar in all populations. Hierarchical analysis of molecular variance indicated significant genetic variation among populations, but did not differentiate Port Phillip Bay from Bass Strait populations. Pairwise comparisons of multilocus F_STand R_ST indicated significant genetic differences between Point Cook and some populations, as well as between other populations, but no consistent spatial pattern of differentiation was observed. There was no significant correlation between genetic and geographic distance. The level of genetic variation observed in the Point Cook individuals was similar to that in individuals from the other four sites, and sufficient to support a ranching program. However, this variation should be monitored to maximize genetic potential, and avoid commercially undesirable effects of inbreeding. Implications of this study in relation to the management of a ranching population in Port Phillip Bay are discussed.

Mitochondrial DNA sequence and gene organization in the Australian Blacklip Abalone Haliotis rubra (Leach)

The complete mitochondrial DNA of the blacklip abalone Haliotis rubra (Gastropoda: Mollusca) was cloned and 16,907 base pairs were sequenced. The sequence represents an estimated 99.85% of the mitochondrial genome, and contains 2 ribosomal RNA, 22 transfer RNA, and 13 protein-coding genes found in other metazoan mtDNA. An AT tandem repeat and a possible C-rich domain within the putative control region could not be fully sequenced. The H. rubra mtDNA gene order is novel for mollusks, separated from the black chiton Katharina tunicata by the individual translocations of 3 tRNAs. Compared with other mtDNA regions, sequences from the ATP8, NAD2, NAD4L, NAD6, and 12S rRNA genes, as well as the control region, are the most variable among representatives from Mollusca, Arthropoda, and Rhynchonelliformea, with similar mtDNA arrangements to H. rubra. These sequences are being evaluated as genetic markers within commercially important Haliotis species, and some applications and considerations for their use are discussed.

Cultivating mangement? Managing culture?

Jean Battersby, the founding executive officer of the Australia Council of the Arts from 1968, delivered a lecture in May 2005 which bemoaned a situation in which the focus and funding of the arts appears to have more to do with managers than with artists. Cultural policy and cultural economics have become the staple of the day, so much so that the thought of an economist actually proposing an Arts Council protected from political manipulation and scrutiny—‘with antennae sensitive to public opinion or political advantage’ and ever ready to apply the ‘child of three’ test (Battersby, 2005: 2)—seems an absurdity. Yet, in July 1945, Maynard Keynes proposed that Britain have an Arts Council without government and its bureaucracy intervening in the relationship between artists and their public. The task, as Battersby records it, ‘is not to teach or to censor, but to give courage, confidence and opportunity’ without prescription (2005: 6).

Providing real-time information services for public bus commuters

This paper investigates RTIS for public bus commuters; identifying their needs and proposing the architecture and design for this service. Considering that the service needs to be extensible, adaptable and interoperative, the new system is based on the use of XML Web Services. This gives the structure flexibility for further development and integration with other like services.

Empowering Australian students in African music: experiential education in primary teacher training

Luckman (1996) defines experiential education as a "process through which a learner constructs knowledge, skill and value from direct experience" (p. 7). The core of such learning is practical engagement, contextualised by concepts and skills in guided experiences. This process, to be most effective, should be supported by reflection. This paper considers an experiential program in African music that is part of pre-service primary teacher education for generalist teacher trainees. As part of the Bachelor of Primary Education degree, offered by Deakin University (Australia) students can select an elective subject on African music in the final year of their four-year course. In this subject students learn African music experientially, by playing, singing and moving. These students completed a questionnaire and were interviewed at the conclusion of the unit in 2003. Data collected showed the effectiveness of using an unknown music to explore musical concepts and understandings in an Australian educational setting.

Missionaries, music and method - dissemination of tonic sol-fa in Asia-Pacific countries during the nineteenth century

The Tonic Sol-fa method of teaching choral singing and its system of music notation was developed in England by John Curwen and propagated throughout the British Isles as a means of both enhancing Christian worship and achieving social reform. Tonic Sol-fa may be identified as an entirely foreign musical practice introduced to indigenous people in many British colonies and in other overseas countries during the nineteenth century as an instrument of Christian evangelism as well as of European cultural imposition. Nevertheless, indigenous communities were introduced to other aspects of European musical culture including a choral repertoire consisting of four-part hymnody and masterworks by Handel, Bach, Mozart, etc which sometimes resulted in the emergence of a school of indigenous composers writing in Tonic Sol-fa notation and using the tonal harmonic style. The result has been that in several countries-such as South Africa and Fiji for example-Tonic Sol-fa has been so fully assimilated into the ethnic culture that it has been "indigenized" and may now be said to represent a significant exogenous aspect of the musical culture in these countries.

Tonic Sol-fa was most commonly introduced to countries in the Asia-Pacific Region -as in Africa - by Christian missionaries who sought to exploit the attraction of hymns, particularly when sung in four-part harmony, as a means of evangelizing indigenous people who frequently regarded this aspect of missionary activity as a form of "magic". In particular, the Tonic Sol-fa method and notation gained a significant foothold in what were referred to as the South Sea Islands--especially in Fiji where today, the Fijian Hymn Book (1985 edition) is notated exclusively in Tonic Sol-fa. The vast majority of the Fijians are literate in Tonic Sol-fa notation and congregational singing in four parts is the norm in Fijian churches.

This paper will draw on data from nineteenth century journal sources, particularly The Tonic Sol-fa Reporter (1853-1888) and The Musical Herald (1889-1920), and will document the introduction and dissemination of Tonic Sol-fa in several Asia-Pacific countries where, unlike Australia and New Zealand, the indigenous population has maintained its own cultural and demographic predominance. Countries to be considered will include India, China (including Hong Kong), and Pacific Island nations. There will also be a consideration of the contemporary usage and applications of Tonic Sol-fa in the region, with specific reference to Fiji. It will be argued that countries where Tonic Sol-fa notation has become the norm should resist any external pressure to transfer to the standard staff notation merely for the sake of conformity. In the case of Fiji, almost universal music literacy has been achieved through Tonic Sol-fa and this should be recognized as an enviable social and cultural asset.

Cedric Gael Bryant, Lee Family Professor of English

Cedric Gael Bryant, Lee Family Professor of English, reading Beloved: A Novel, by Toni Morrison (PS3563 O8749 B4 1987)