Verification of European subseasonal wind speed forecasts

Analysis of the forecasts and hindcasts from the ECMWF 32-day forecast model reveals that there is statistically significant skill in predicting weekly mean wind speeds over areas of Europe at lead times of at least 14–20 days. Previous research on wind speed predictability has focused on the short- to medium-range time scales, typically finding that forecasts lose all skill by the later part of the medium-range forecast. To the authors’ knowledge, this research is the first to look beyond the medium-range time scale by taking weekly mean wind speeds, instead of averages at hourly or daily resolution, for the ECMWF monthly forecasting system. It is shown that the operational forecasts have high levels of correlation (~0.6) between the forecasts and observations over the winters of 2008–12 for some areas of Europe. Hindcasts covering 20 winters show a more modest level of correlation but are still skillful. Additional analysis examines the probabilistic skill for the United Kingdom with the application of wind power forecasting in mind. It is also shown that there is forecast “value” for end users (operating in a simple cost/loss ratio decision-making framework). End users that are sensitive to winter wind speed variability over the United Kingdom, Germany, and some other areas of Europe should therefore consider forecasts beyond the medium-range time scale as it is clear there is useful information contained within the forecast.

Plasma free fatty acids do not provide the link between obesity and insulin resistance or β-cell dysfunction: results of the Reading, Imperial, Surrey, Cambridge, Kings (RISCK) study

Aims To investigate the relationship between adiposity and plasma free fatty acid levels and the influence of total plasma free fatty acid level on insulin sensitivity and β-cell function. Methods An insulin sensitivity index, acute insulin response to glucose and a disposition index, derived from i.v. glucose tolerance minimal model analysis and total fasting plasma free fatty acid levels were available for 533 participants in the Reading, Imperial, Surrey, Cambridge, Kings study. Bivariate correlations were made between insulin sensitivity index, acute insulin response to glucose and disposition index and both adiposity measures (BMI, waist circumference and body fat mass) and total plasma free fatty acid levels. Multivariate linear regression analysis was performed, controlling for age, sex, ethnicity and adiposity. Results After adjustment, all adiposity measures were inversely associated with insulin sensitivity index (BMI: β = −0.357; waist circumference: β = −0.380; body fat mass: β = −0.375) and disposition index (BMI: β = −0.215; waist circumference: β = −0.248; body fat mass: β = −0.221) and positively associated with acute insulin response to glucose [BMI: β = 0.200; waist circumference: β = 0.195; body fat mass β = 0.209 (P values <0.001)]. Adiposity explained 13, 4 and 5% of the variation in insulin sensitivity index, acute insulin response to glucose and disposition index, respectively. After adjustment, no adiposity measure was associated with free fatty acid level, but total plasma free fatty acid level was inversely associated with insulin sensitivity index (β = −0.133), acute insulin response to glucose (β = −0.148) and disposition index [β = −0.218 (P values <0.01)]. Plasma free fatty acid concentration accounted for 1.5, 2 and 4% of the variation in insulin sensitivity index, acute insulin response to glucose and disposition index, respectively. Conclusions Plasma free fatty acid levels have a modest negative association with insulin sensitivity, β-cell secretion and disposition index but no association with adiposity measures. It is unlikely that plasma free fatty acids are the primary mediators of obesity-related insulin resistance or β-cell dysfunction.

Aerosol microphysics simulations of the Mt.~Pinatubo eruption with the UM-UKCA composition-climate model

We use a stratosphere–troposphere composition–climate model with interactive sulfur chemistry and aerosol microphysics, to investigate the effect of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption on stratospheric aerosol properties. Satellite measurements indicate that shortly after the eruption, between 14 and 23 Tg of SO2 (7 to 11.5 Tg of sulfur) was present in the tropical stratosphere. Best estimates of the peak global stratospheric aerosol burden are in the range 19 to 26 Tg, or 3.7 to 6.7 Tg of sulfur assuming a composition of between 59 and 77 % H2SO4. In light of this large uncertainty range, we performed two main simulations with 10 and 20 Tg of SO2 injected into the tropical lower stratosphere. Simulated stratospheric aerosol properties through the 1991 to 1995 period are compared against a range of available satellite and in situ measurements. Stratospheric aerosol optical depth (sAOD) and effective radius from both simulations show good qualitative agreement with the observations, with the timing of peak sAOD and decay timescale matching well with the observations in the tropics and mid-latitudes. However, injecting 20 Tg gives a factor of 2 too high stratospheric aerosol mass burden compared to the satellite data, with consequent strong high biases in simulated sAOD and surface area density, with the 10 Tg injection in much better agreement. Our model cannot explain the large fraction of the injected sulfur that the satellite-derived SO2 and aerosol burdens indicate was removed within the first few months after the eruption. We suggest that either there is an additional alternative loss pathway for the SO2 not included in our model (e.g. via accommodation into ash or ice in the volcanic cloud) or that a larger proportion of the injected sulfur was removed via cross-tropopause transport than in our simulations. We also critically evaluate the simulated evolution of the particle size distribution, comparing in detail to balloon-borne optical particle counter (OPC) measurements from Laramie, Wyoming, USA (41° N). Overall, the model captures remarkably well the complex variations in particle concentration profiles across the different OPC size channels. However, for the 19 to 27 km injection height-range used here, both runs have a modest high bias in the lowermost stratosphere for the finest particles (radii less than 250 nm), and the decay timescale is longer in the model for these particles, with a much later return to background conditions. Also, whereas the 10 Tg run compared best to the satellite measurements, a significant low bias is apparent in the coarser size channels in the volcanically perturbed lower stratosphere. Overall, our results suggest that, with appropriate calibration, aerosol microphysics models are capable of capturing the observed variation in particle size distribution in the stratosphere across both volcanically perturbed and quiescent conditions. Furthermore, additional sensitivity simulations suggest that predictions with the models are robust to uncertainties in sub-grid particle formation and nucleation rates in the stratosphere.

MA TEFL programmes in Iran: change in a globalised era

This chapter is a modest attempt to investigate how MA TEFL programmes in Iran are changing in a globalised world. Our previous research in this area (Hasrati & Tavakoli, in print; Tavakoli & Hasrati, in preparation) has shown how MAs in English Language Teaching programmes are developing in Anglophone countries, but little or no research has been conducted to study changes in MA TEFL programmes in Iran. In what follows, we will first introduce MA TEFL programmes in Iran, before presenting and discussing different definitions of globalisation. We will then explain how we collected the data for this study and report our findings, making comparisons with the other contexts when appropriate. We will conclude by elaborating on possible extensions of this study in similar contexts.

Recent lake-level and outflow variations at Lake Viljandi, Estonia: validation of a coupled lake-catchment modelling scheme for climate change studies

Changes in the depth of Lake Viljandi between 1940 and 1990 were simulated using a lake water and energy-balance model driven by standard monthly weather data. Catchment runoff was simulated using a one-dimensional hydrological model, with a two-layer soil, a single-layer snowpack, a simple representation of vegetation cover and similarly modest input requirements. Outflow was modelled as a function of lake level. The simulated record of lake level and outflow matched observations of lake-level variations (r = 0.78) and streamflow (r = 0.87) well. The ability of the model to capture both intra- and inter-annual variations in the behaviour of a specific lake, despite the relatively simple input requirements, makes it extremely suitable for investigations of the impacts of climate change on lake water balance.

Using high-frequency water quality data to assess sampling strategies for the EU Water Framework Directive

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires that the ecological and chemical status of water bodies in Europe should be assessed, and action taken where possible to ensure that at least "good" quality is attained in each case by 2015. This paper is concerned with the accuracy and precision with which chemical status in rivers can be measured given certain sampling strategies, and how this can be improved. High-frequency (hourly) chemical data from four rivers in southern England were subsampled to simulate different sampling strategies for four parameters used for WFD classification: dissolved phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, pH and water temperature. These data sub-sets were then used to calculate the WFD classification for each site. Monthly sampling was less precise than weekly sampling, but the effect on WFD classification depended on the closeness of the range of concentrations to the class boundaries. In some cases, monthly sampling for a year could result in the same water body being assigned to three or four of the WFD classes with 95% confidence, due to random sampling effects, whereas with weekly sampling this was one or two classes for the same cases. In the most extreme case, the same water body could have been assigned to any of the five WFD quality classes. Weekly sampling considerably reduces the uncertainties compared to monthly sampling. The width of the weekly sampled confidence intervals was about 33% that of the monthly for P species and pH, about 50% for dissolved oxygen, and about 67% for water temperature. For water temperature, which is assessed as the 98th percentile in the UK, monthly sampling biases the mean downwards by about 1 °C compared to the true value, due to problems of assessing high percentiles with limited data. Low-frequency measurements will generally be unsuitable for assessing standards expressed as high percentiles. Confining sampling to the working week compared to all 7 days made little difference, but a modest improvement in precision could be obtained by sampling at the same time of day within a 3 h time window, and this is recommended. For parameters with a strong diel variation, such as dissolved oxygen, the value obtained, and thus possibly the WFD classification, can depend markedly on when in the cycle the sample was taken. Specifying this in the sampling regime would be a straightforward way to improve precision, but there needs to be agreement about how best to characterise risk in different types of river. These results suggest that in some cases it will be difficult to assign accurate WFD chemical classes or to detect likely trends using current sampling regimes, even for these largely groundwater-fed rivers. A more critical approach to sampling is needed to ensure that management actions are appropriate and supported by data.

Treatment of child anxiety in the context of maternal anxiety disorder: a randomised controlled trial and economic analysis

Background Cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) for childhood anxiety disorders is associated with modest outcomes in the context of parental anxiety disorder. Objectives This study evaluated whether or not the outcome of CBT for children with anxiety disorders in the context of maternal anxiety disorders is improved by the addition of (i) treatment of maternal anxiety disorders, or (ii) treatment focused on maternal responses. The incremental cost-effectiveness of the additional treatments was also evaluated. Design Participants were randomised to receive (i) child cognitive–behavioural therapy (CCBT); (ii) CCBT with CBT to target maternal anxiety disorders [CCBT + maternal cognitive–behavioural therapy (MCBT)]; or (iii) CCBT with an intervention to target mother–child interactions (MCIs) (CCBT + MCI). Setting A NHS university clinic in Berkshire, UK. Participants Two hundred and eleven children with a primary anxiety disorder, whose mothers also had an anxiety disorder. Interventions All families received eight sessions of individual CCBT. Mothers in the CCBT + MCBT arm also received eight sessions of CBT targeting their own anxiety disorders. Mothers in the MCI arm received 10 sessions targeting maternal parenting cognitions and behaviours. Non-specific interventions were delivered to balance groups for therapist contact. Main outcome measures Primary clinical outcomes were the child’s primary anxiety disorder status and degree of improvement at the end of treatment. Follow-up assessments were conducted at 6 and 12 months. Outcomes in the economic analyses were identified and measured using estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). QALYS were combined with treatment, health and social care costs and presented within an incremental cost–utility analysis framework with associated uncertainty. Results MCBT was associated with significant short-term improvement in maternal anxiety; however, after children had received CCBT, group differences were no longer apparent. CCBT + MCI was associated with a reduction in maternal overinvolvement and more confident expectations of the child. However, neither CCBT + MCBT nor CCBT + MCI conferred a significant post-treatment benefit over CCBT in terms of child anxiety disorder diagnoses [adjusted risk ratio (RR) 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87 to 1.62, p = 0.29; adjusted RR CCBT + MCI vs. control: adjusted RR 1.22, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.67, p = 0.20, respectively] or global improvement ratings (adjusted RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.59, p = 0.05; adjusted RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.53, p = 0.13). CCBT + MCI outperformed CCBT on some secondary outcome measures. Furthermore, primary economic analyses suggested that, at commonly accepted thresholds of cost-effectiveness, the probability that CCBT + MCI will be cost-effective in comparison with CCBT (plus non-specific interventions) is about 75%. Conclusions Good outcomes were achieved for children and their mothers across treatment conditions. There was no evidence of a benefit to child outcome of supplementing CCBT with either intervention focusing on maternal anxiety disorder or maternal cognitions and behaviours. However, supplementing CCBT with treatment that targeted maternal cognitions and behaviours represented a cost-effective use of resources, although the high percentage of missing data on some economic variables is a shortcoming. Future work should consider whether or not effects of the adjunct interventions are enhanced in particular contexts. The economic findings highlight the utility of considering the use of a broad range of services when evaluating interventions with this client group. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN19762288. Funding This trial was funded by the Medical Research Council (MRC) and Berkshire Healthcare Foundation Trust and managed by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) on behalf of the MRC–NIHR partnership (09/800/17) and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 38.

A pooled genome-wide association study of Asperger Syndrome

Asperger Syndrome (AS) is a neurodevelopmental condition characterized by impairments in social interaction and communication, alongside the presence of unusually repetitive, restricted interests and stereotyped behaviour. Individuals with AS have no delay in cognitive and language development. It is a subset of Autism Spectrum Conditions (ASC), which are highly heritable and has a population prevalence of approximately 1%. Few studies have investigated the genetic basis of AS. To address this gap in the literature, we performed a genome-wide pooled DNA association study to identify candidate loci in 612 individuals (294 cases and 318 controls) of Caucasian ancestry, using the Affymetrix GeneChip Human Mapping version 6.0 array. We identified 11 SNPs that had a p-value below 1x10-5. These SNPs were independently genotyped in the same sample. Three of the SNPs (rs1268055, rs7785891 and rs2782448) were nominally significant, though none remained significant after Bonferroni correction. Two of our top three SNPs (rs7785891 and rs2782448) lie in loci previously implicated in ASC. However, investigation of the three SNPs in the ASC genome-wide association dataset from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium indicated that these three SNPs were not significantly associated with ASC. The effect sizes of the variants were modest, indicating that our study was not sufficiently powered to identify causal variants with precision.

Farmers’ perceptions of the effectiveness of the Cocoa Disease and Pest Control Programme (CODAPEC) in Ghana and its effects on poverty reduction

The study examined the contribution of the Cocoa Disease and Pest Control Programme (CODAPEC), which is a cocoa production-enhancing government policy, to reducing poverty and raising the living standards of cocoa farmers in Ghana. One hundred and fifty (150) cocoa farmers were randomly selected from five communities in the Bibiani-Anhwiaso-Bekwai district of the Western Region of Ghana and interviewed using structured questionnaires. Just over half of the farmers (53%) perceived the CODAPEC programme as being effective in controlling pests and diseases, whilst 56.6% felt that their yields and hence livelihoods had improved. In some cases pesticides or fungicides were applied later in the season than recommended and this had a detrimental effect on yields. To determine the level of poverty amongst farmers, annual household consumption expenditure was used as a proxy indicator. The study found that 4.7% of cocoa farmers were extremely poor having a total annual household consumption expenditure of less than GH¢ 623.10 ($310.00) while 8.0% were poor with less than GH¢ 801.62 ($398.81). An amount of money ranging from GH¢ 20.00 ($9.95) to GH¢ 89.04 ($44.29) per annum was needed to lift the 4.7% of cocoa farmers out of extreme poverty, which could be achieved through modest increases in productivity. The study highlighted how agricultural intervention programmes, such as CODAPEC, have the potential to contribute to improved farmer livelihoods.

Long-run restrictions and survey forecasts of output, consumption and investment

We consider the extent to which long-horizon survey forecasts of consumption, investment and output growth are consistent with theory-based steady-state values, and whether imposing these restrictions on long-horizon forecasts will enhance their accuracy. The restrictions we impose are consistent with a two-sector model in which the variables grow at different rates in steady state. The restrictions are imposed by exponential-tilting of simple auxiliary forecast densities. We show that imposing the consumption-output restriction yields modest improvements in the long-horizon output growth forecasts, and larger improvements in the forecasts of the cointegrating combination of consumption and output: the transformation of the data on which accuracy is assessed plays an important role.

Seasonality of submesoscale flows in the ocean surface boundary layer

A signature of submesoscale flows in the upper ocean is skewness in the distribution of relative vorticity. Expected to result for high Rossby-number flows, such skewness has implications for mixing, dissipation and stratification within the upper ocean. An array of moorings deployed in the Northeast Atlantic for one year as part of the OSMOSIS experiment reveals that relative vorticity is positively skewed during winter even though the scale of the Rossby number is less than 0.5. Furthermore, this skewness is reduced to zero during spring and autumn. There is also evidence of modest seasonal variations in the gradient Rossby number. The proposed mechanism by which relative vorticity is skewed is that the ratio of lateral to vertical buoyancy gradients, as summarized by the inverse gradient Richardson number, restricts its range during winter but less so at other times of the year. These results support recent observations and model simulations suggesting the upper ocean is host to a seasonal cycle in submesoscale turbulence.

Climatic risks and impacts in South Asia: extremes of water scarcity and excess

This paper reviews the current knowledge of climatic risks and impacts in South Asia associated with anthropogenic warming levels of 1.5°C to 4°C above pre-industrial values in the 21st century. It is based on the World Bank Report “Turn Down the Heat, Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience” (2013). Many of the climate change impacts in the region, which appear quite severe even with relatively modest warming of 1.5–2°C, pose significant hazards to development. For example, increased monsoon variability and loss or glacial meltwater will likely confront populations with ongoing and multiple challenges. The result is a significant risk to stable and reliable water resources for the region, with increases in peak flows potentially causing floods and dry season flow reductions threatening agriculture. Irrespective of the anticipated economic development and growth, climate projections indicate that large parts of South Asia’s growing population and especially the poor are likely to remain highly vulnerable to climate change.

Community perceptions of four protected areas in the Northern portion of the Cerrado hotspot, Brazil

Establishing effective networks of protected areas (PAS) is one of the major goals of conservation strategies worldwide. However, the success of PAS in promoting biodiversity conservation depends on their integration to local and regional contexts, reducing and mitigating human impacts originating from buffer zones. Community perceptions affect interactions between residents and PAS, and thereby conservation effectiveness. Research at Tocantins state (northern Brazilian Cerrado), aimed to analyse local community perceptions of four PAs, discussing how different factors may influence these. Perceptions were assessed through standardized interviews applied to PA employees and 275 local inhabitants. There was modest community participation in PA establishment and management. Residents were aware of the PAS` existence, but were unfamiliar with their goals. Length of residency and occupation of inhabitants influenced their PA perceptions, shaping different people-park relations in each of the four studied PAs. Involvement of local residents in PA planning and management represents a central strategy to strengthen local support for PAS over the long term. In those areas that still have settlements inside their boundaries, community relocation should follow a careful participatory process to avoid significant changes in local perceptions and attitudes towards these PAS, crucial for conserving Brazilian biodiversity.

Bj-PRO-5a, a natural angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor, promotes vasodilatation mediated by both bradykinin B(2) and M1 muscarinic acetylcholine receptors

Bradykinin-potentiating peptides (BPPs) or proline-rich oligopeptides (PROs) isolated from the venom glands of Bothrops jararaca (Bj) were the first natural inhibitors of the angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) described. Bj-PRO-5a (< EKWAP), a member of this structurally related peptide family, was essential for the development of captopril, the first site-directed ACE inhibitor used for the treatment of human hypertension. Nowadays, more Bj-PROs have been identified with higher ACE inhibition potency compared to Bj-PRO-5a. However, despite its modest inhibitory effect of ACE inhibition, Bj-PRO-5a reveals strong bradykinin-potentiating activity, suggesting the participation of other mechanisms for this peptide. In the present study, we have shown that Bj-PRO-5a induced nitric oxide (NO) production depended on muscarinic acetylcholine receptor M1 subtype (mAchR-M1) and bradykinin B(2) receptor activation, as measured by a chemiluminescence assay using a NO analyzer. Intravital microscopy based on transillumination of mice cremaster muscle also showed that both bradykinin B(2) receptor and mAchR-M1 contributed to the vasodilatation induced by Bj-PRO-5a. Moreover, Bj-PRO-5a-mediated vasodilatation was completely blocked in the presence of a NO synthase inhibitor. The importance of this work lies in the definition of novel targets for Bj-PRO-5a in addition to ACE, the structural model for captopril development. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Short-term induction of thrombocytopenia delays periodontal healing in rats with periodontal disease: participation of endostatin and vascular endothelial growth factor

Background and Objective: Platelets contain factors, including VEGF and endostatin, that can modulate the healing process. We evaluated the effects of severe thrombocytopenia on periodontal healing in rats and determined the contribution of VEGF and endostatin to the healing process. Material and Methods: Rats were distributed into three test groups and two control groups. Cotton ligatures were placed at the gingival margin level of the lower first molar in the test groups. Sham-operated rats and rats in one of the periodontitis groups were killed 15 days later. Rats in the remaining two periodontitis groups had the ligatures removed in order to study the spontaneous recovery from the periodontal disease 15 days later, and these rats were treated with rabbit antiplatelet serum, in order to induce thrombocytopenia, or normal rabbit serum. An additional group without ligatures received antiplatet serum in the same period. Results: After ligature removal, rats treated with normal rabbit serum showed reduced myeloperoxidase activity, decreased alveolar bone loss and increased numbers of blood vessels. Thrombocytopenia caused a delay in alveolar bone regeneration, a decrease in the number of vessels and a modest decrease in myeloperoxidase activity. In the rats with periodontitis, serum endostatin concentrations were slightly decreased and serum VEGF remained unchanged compared with sham-operated animals. After ligature removal, a significant VEGF increase and endostatin decrease were observed in the rats treated with normal rabbit serum. Thrombocytopenia led to a dramatic fall in both VEGF and endostatin concentrations. Conclusion: Thrombocytopenia leads to a delay of periodontal healing in the situation of experimental periodontitis, which might be mediated in part by a decrease in the serum concentration of VEGF and endostatin derived from the platelets. However, other factors derived from the platelets may also have contributed to a delay of periodontal healing in the rats with thrombocytopenia.