The contribution of patch topology and demographic parameters to PVA predictions: the case of the European tree frog

Population viability analyses (PVA) are increasingly used in metapopulation conservation plans. Two major types of models are commonly used to assess vulnerability and to rank management options: population-based stochastic simulation models (PSM such as RAMAS or VORTEX) and stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOM). While the first set of models relies on explicit intrapatch dynamics and interpatch dispersal to predict population levels in space and time, the latter is based on spatially explicit metapopulation theory where the probability of patch occupation is predicted given the patch area and isolation (patch topology). We applied both approaches to a European tree frog (Hyla arborea) metapopulation in western Switzerland in order to evaluate the concordances of both models and their applications to conservation. Although some quantitative discrepancies appeared in terms of network occupancy and equilibrium population size, the two approaches were largely concordant regarding the ranking of patch values and sensitivities to parameters, which is encouraging given the differences in the underlying paradigms and input data.

Ethics Outside, Within, or Beyond OR Models

Since ethical concerns are calling for more attention within Operational Research, we present three approaches to combine Operational Research models with ethics. Our intention is to clarify the trade-offs faced by the OR community, in particular the tension between the scientific legitimacy of OR models (ethics outside OR models) and the integration of ethics within models (ethics within OR models). Presenting and discussing an approach that combines OR models with the process of OR (ethics beyond OR models), we suggest rigorous ways to express the relation between ethics and OR models. As our work is exploratory, we are trying to avoid a dogmatic attitude and call for further research. We argue that there are interesting avenues for research at the theoretical, methodological and applied levels and that the OR community can contribute to an innovative, constructive and responsible social dialogue about its ethics.

Study of parental models: building an instrument for their exploration

Objective: This research presents the construction of an attributional questionnaire concerning the different parental models and factors that are involved in family interactions. Method: A mixed methodology was used as a foundation to develop items and respective pilots that allowed checking the validity and internal consistency of the instrument using expert judgment. Results: An instrument of 36 statements was organized into 12 categories to explore the parental models according to the following factors: parental models, breeding patterns, attachment bonds and guidelines for success, and promoted inside family contexts. Analyzing these factors contributes to the children’s development within the familiar frown, and the opportunity for socio-educational intervention. Conclusion: It is assumed that the family context is as decisive as the school context; therefore, exploring the nature of parental models is required to understand the features and influences that contribute to the development of young people in any social context.





Developing a Simple and Rapid Test for Monitoring the Heat Evolution of Concrete Mixtures for Both Laboratory and Field Applications, January 2006

Various test methods exist for measuring heat of cement hydration; however, most current methods require expensive equipment, complex testing procedures, and/or extensive time, thus not being suitable for field application. The objectives of this research are to identify, develop, and evaluate a standard test procedure for characterization and quality control of pavement concrete mixtures using a calorimetry technique. This research project has three phases. Phase I was designed to identify the user needs, including performance requirements and precision and bias limits, and to synthesize existing test methods for monitoring the heat of hydration, including device types, configurations, test procedures, measurements, advantages, disadvantages, applications, and accuracy. Phase II was designed to conduct experimental work to evaluate the calorimetry equipment recommended from the Phase I study and to develop a standard test procedure for using the equipment and interpreting the test results. Phase II also includes the development of models and computer programs for prediction of concrete pavement performance based on the characteristics of heat evolution curves. Phase III was designed to study for further development of a much simpler, inexpensive calorimeter for field concrete. In this report, the results from the Phase I study are presented, the plan for the Phase II study is described, and the recommendations for Phase III study are outlined. Phase I has been completed through three major activities: (1) collecting input and advice from the members of the project Technical Working Group (TWG), (2) conducting a literature survey, and (3) performing trials at the CP Tech Center’s research lab. The research results indicate that in addition to predicting maturity/strength, concrete heat evolution test results can also be used for (1) forecasting concrete setting time, (2) specifying curing period, (3) estimating risk of thermal cracking, (4) assessing pavement sawing/finishing time, (5) characterizing cement features, (6) identifying incompatibility of cementitious materials, (7) verifying concrete mix proportions, and (8) selecting materials and/or mix designs for given environmental conditions. Besides concrete materials and mix proportions, the configuration of the calorimeter device, sample size, mixing procedure, and testing environment (temperature) also have significant influences on features of concrete heat evolution process. The research team has found that although various calorimeter tests have been conducted for assorted purposes and the potential uses of calorimeter tests are clear, there is no consensus on how to utilize the heat evolution curves to characterize concrete materials and how to effectively relate the characteristics of heat evolution curves to concrete pavement performance. The goal of the Phase II study is to close these gaps.

Integrated Analysis of Molecular and Clinical Prognostic Factors in Stage II/III Colon Cancer.

Background The prognostic potential of individual clinical and molecular parameters in stage II/III colon cancer has been investigated, but a thorough multivariable assessment of their relative impact is missing. Methods Tumors from patients (N = 1404) in the PETACC3 adjuvant chemotherapy trial were examined for BRAF and KRAS mutations, microsatellite instability (MSI), chromosome 18q loss of heterozygosity (18qLOH), and SMAD4 expression. Their importance in predicting relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analyses, Cox regression models, and recursive partitioning trees. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results MSI-high status and SMAD4 focal loss of expression were identified as independent prognostic factors with better RFS (hazard ratio [HR] of recurrence = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.37 to 0.81, P = .003) and OS (HR of death = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.27 to 0.70, P = .001) for MSI-high status and worse RFS (HR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.19 to 1.81, P < .001) and OS (HR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.23 to 2.01, P < .001) for SMAD4 loss. 18qLOH did not have any prognostic value in RFS or OS. Recursive partitioning identified refinements of TNM into new clinically interesting prognostic subgroups. Notably, T3N1 tumors with MSI-high status and retained SMAD4 expression had outcomes similar to stage II disease. Conclusions Concomitant assessment of molecular and clinical markers in multivariable analysis is essential to confirm or refute their independent prognostic value. Including molecular markers with independent prognostic value might allow more accurate prediction of prognosis than TNM staging alone.

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool:Historical Development, Applications, and Future Research Directions, 2007

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is a continuation of nearly 30 years of modeling efforts conducted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Agricultural Research Service. SWAT has gained international acceptance as a robust interdisciplinary watershed modeling tool, as evidenced by international SWAT conferences, hundreds of SWAT-related papers presented at numerous scientific meetings, and dozens of articles published in peer-reviewed journals. The model has also been adopted as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s BASINS (Better Assessment Science Integrating Point & Nonpoint Sources) software package and is being used by many U.S. federal and state agencies, including the USDA within the Conservation Effects Assessment Project. At present, over 250 peer-reviewed, published articles have been identified that report SWAT applications, reviews of SWAT components, or other research that includes SWAT. Many of these peer-reviewed articles are summarized here according to relevant application categories such as streamflow calibration and related hydrologic analyses, climate change impacts on hydrology, pollutant load assessments, comparisons with other models, and sensitivity analyses and calibration techniques. Strengths and weaknesses of the model are presented, and recommended research needs for SWAT are provided.

Value and prices in Russian economic thought (1890-1920)

The subject "Value and prices in Russian economic thought (1890--1920)" should evoke several names and debates in the reader's mind. For a long time, Western scholars have been aware that the Russian economists Tugan-Baranovsky and Bortkiewicz were active participants to the Marxian transformation problem, that the mathematical models of Dmitriev prefigured forthcoming neoricardian based models, and that many Russian economists were either supporting the Marxian labour theory of value or being revisionists. Moreover, these ideas were preparing the ground for Soviet planning. Russian scholars additionally knew that this period was the time of introduction of marginalism in Russia, and that, during this period, economists were active in thinking the relation of ethics with economic theory. All these issues are well covered in the existing literature. But there is a big gap that this dissertation intends to fill. The existing literature handles these pieces separately, although they are part of a single, more general, history. All these issues (the labour theory of value, marginalism, the Marxian transformation problem, planning, ethics, mathematical economics) were part of what this dissertation calls here "The Russian synthesis". The Russian synthesis (in the singular) designates here all the attempts at synthesis between classical political economy and marginalism, between labour theory of value and marginal utility, and between value and prices that occurred in Russian economic thought between 1890 and 1920, and that embraces the whole set of issues evoked above. This dissertation has the ambition of being the first comprehensive history of that Russian synthesis. In this, this contribution is unique. It has always surprised the author of the present dissertation that such a book has not yet been written. Several good reasons, both in terms of scarce availability of sources and of ideological restrictions, may accounted for a reasonable delay of several decades. But it is now urgent to remedy the situation before the protagonists of the Russian synthesis are definitely classified under the wrong labels in the pantheon of economic thought. To accomplish this task, it has seldom be sufficient to gather together the various existing studies on aspects of this story. It as been necessary to return to the primary sources in the Russian language. The most important part of the primary literature has never been translated, and in the last years only some of them have been republished in Russian. Therefore, most translations from the Russian have been made by the author of the present dissertation. The secondary literature has been surveyed in the languages that are familiar (Russian, English and French) or almost familiar (German) to the present author, and which are hopefully the most pertinent to the present investigation. Besides, and in order to increase the acquaintance with the text, which was the objective of all this, some archival sources were used. The analysis consists of careful chronological studies of the authors' writings and their evolution in their historical and intellectual context. As a consequence, the dissertation brings new authors to the foreground - Shaposhnikov and Yurovsky - who were traditionally confined to the substitutes' bench, because they only superficially touched the domains quoted above. In the Russian synthesis however, they played an important part of the story. As a side effect, some authors that used to play in the foreground - Dmitriev and Bortkiewicz - are relegated to the background, but are not forgotten. Besides, the dissertation refreshes the views on authors already known, such as Ziber and, especially, Tugan-Baranovsky. The ultimate objective of this dissertation is to change the opinion that one could have on "value and prices in Russian economic thought", by setting the Russian synthesis at the centre of the debates.

Supermarket key attributes and location decisions: A comparative study between British and Spanish consumers

The Maximum Capture problem (MAXCAP) is a decision model that addresses the issue of location in a competitive environment. This paper presents a new approach to determine which store s attributes (other than distance) should be included in the newMarket Capture Models and how they ought to be reflected using the Multiplicative Competitive Interaction model. The methodology involves the design and development of a survey; and the application of factor analysis and ordinary least squares. Themethodology has been applied to the supermarket sector in two different scenarios: Milton Keynes (Great Britain) and Barcelona (Spain).

Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models

We investigate identifiability issues in DSGE models and their consequences for parameter estimation and model evaluation when the objective function measures the distance between estimated and model impulse responses. We show that observational equivalence, partial and weak identification problems are widespread, that they lead to biased estimates, unreliable t-statistics and may induce investigators to select false models. We examine whether different objective functions affect identification and study how small samples interact with parameters and shock identification. We provide diagnostics and tests to detect identification failures and apply them to a state-of-the-art model.

Accounting information and the prediction of farm viability

Until recently farm management made little use of accounting and agriculture has been largely excluded from the scope of accounting standards. This article examines the current use of accounting in agriculture and points theneed to establish accounting standards for agriculture. Empirical evidence shows that accounting can make a significant contribution to agricultural management and farm viability and could also be important for other agents involved in agricultural decision making. Existing literature on failureprediction models and farm viability prediction studies provide the starting point for our research, in which two dichotomous logit models were applied to subsamples of viable and unviable farms in Catalonia, Spain. The firstmodel considered only non-financial variables, while the other also considered financial ones. When accounting variables were added to the model, a significant reduction in deviance was observed.

How much structure in empirical models?

This chapter highlights the problems that structural methods and SVAR approaches have when estimating DSGE models and examining their ability to capture important features of the data. We show that structural methods are subject to severe identification problems due, in large part, to the nature of DSGE models. The problems can be patched up in a number of ways but solved only if DSGEs are completely reparametrized or respecified. The potential misspecification of the structural relationships give Bayesian methods an hedge over classical ones in structural estimation. SVAR approaches may face invertibility problems but simple diagnostics can help to detect and remedy these problems. A pragmatic empirical approach ought to use the flexibility of SVARs against potential misspecificationof the structural relationships but must firmly tie SVARs to the class of DSGE models which could have have generated the data.

Ethics outside, within or beyond OR models

Since ethical concerns are calling for more attention within OperationalResearch, we present three approaches to combine Operational Researchmodels with ethics. Our intention is to clarify the trade-offs faced bythe OR community, in particular the tension between the scientificlegitimacy of OR models (ethics outside OR models) and the integrationof ethics within models (ethics within OR models). Presenting anddiscussing an approach that combines OR models with the process of OR(ethics beyond OR models), we suggest rigorous ways to express the relationbetween ethics and OR models. As our work is exploratory, we are trying toavoid a dogmatic attitude and call for further research. We argue thatthere are interesting avenues for research at the theoretical,methodological and applied levels and that the OR community can contributeto an innovative, constructive and responsible social dialogue about itsethics.

Probabilistic maximal covering location-allocation models with constrained waiting time or queue length for congested systems

When dealing with the design of service networks, such as healthand EMS services, banking or distributed ticket selling services, thelocation of service centers has a strong influence on the congestion ateach of them, and consequently, on the quality of service. In this paper,several models are presented to consider service congestion. The firstmodel addresses the issue of the location of the least number of single--servercenters such that all the population is served within a standard distance,and nobody stands in line for a time longer than a given time--limit, or withmore than a predetermined number of other clients. We then formulateseveral maximal coverage models, with one or more servers per service center.A new heuristic is developed to solve the models and tested in a 30--nodesnetwork.

Testing calibrated general equilibrium models

This paper illustrates the philosophy which forms the basis of calibrationexercises in general equilibrium macroeconomic models and the details of theprocedure, the advantages and the disadvantages of the approach, with particularreference to the issue of testing ``false'' economic models. We provide anoverview of the most recent simulation--based approaches to the testing problemand compare them to standard econometric methods used to test the fit of non--lineardynamic general equilibrium models. We illustrate how simulation--based techniques can be used to formally evaluate the fit of a calibrated modelto the data and obtain ideas on how to improve the model design using a standardproblem in the international real business cycle literature, i.e. whether amodel with complete financial markets and no restrictions to capital mobility is able to reproduce the second order properties of aggregate savingand aggregate investment in an open economy.

Regulation of endothelial cell integrin function and angiogenesis by COX-2, cAMP and Protein Kinase A.

Angiogenesis, the development of new blood vessels from preexisting vessels, is a key step in tumor growth, invasion and metastasis formation. Inhibition of tumor angiogenesis is considered as an attractive approach to suppress cancer progression and spreading. Adhesion receptors of the integrin family promote tumor angiogenesis by mediating cell migration, proliferation and survival of angiogenic endothelial cells. Integrins up regulated and highly expressed on neovascular endothelial cells, such as alphaVbeta3 and alpha5beta1, have been considered as relevant targets for anti-angiogenic therapies. Small molecular integrin antagonists or blocking antibodies suppress angiogenesis and tumor progression in many animal models, and some of them are currently being tested in cancer clinical trials as anti-angiogenic agents. COX-2 inhibitors exert anti-cancer effects, at least in part, by inhibiting tumor angiogenesis. We have recently shown that COX-2 inhibitors suppress endothelial cell migration and angiogenesis by preventing alphaVbeta3-mediated and cAMP/PKA-dependent activation of the small GTPases Rac and Cdc42. Here we will review the evidence for the involvement of vascular integrins in mediating angiogenesis and the role of COX-2 metabolites in modulating the cAMP/Protein Kinase A pathway and alphaVbeta3-dependent Rac activation in endothelial cells.