A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

A demonstration of artificial dissipation effects in some finite volume solution methods for the Navier-Stokes equations

The artificial dissipation effects in some solutions obtained with a Navier-Stokes flow solver are demonstrated. The solvers were used to calculate the flow of an artificially dissipative fluid, which is a fluid having dissipative properties which arise entirely from the solution method itself. This was done by setting the viscosity and heat conduction coefficients in the Navier-Stokes solvers to zero everywhere inside the flow, while at the same time applying the usual no-slip and thermal conducting boundary conditions at solid boundaries. An artificially dissipative flow solution is found where the dissipation depends entirely on the solver itself. If the difference between the solutions obtained with the viscosity and thermal conductivity set to zero and their correct values is small, it is clear that the artificial dissipation is dominating and the solutions are unreliable.

A shift from passive teaching at medical conferences to more interactive methods improves physician learning

Conferences that deliver interactive sessions designed to enhance physician participation, such as role play, small discussion groups, workshops, hands-on training, problem- or case-based learning and individualised training sessions, are effective for physician education.

Appropriate surveying methods in the Philippines: Can modern GPS units help?

An investigation was undertaken to test the effectiveness of two procedures for recording boundaries and plot positions for scientific studies on farms on Leyte Island, the Philippines. The accuracy of a Garmin 76 Global Positioning System (GPS) unit and a compass and chain was checked under the same conditions. Tree canopies interfered with the ability of the satellite signal to reach the GPS and therefore the GPS survey was less accurate than the compass and chain survey. Where a high degree of accuracy is required, a compass and chain survey remains the most effective method of surveying land underneath tree canopies, providing operator error is minimised. For a large number of surveys and thus large amounts of data, a GPS is more appropriate than a compass and chain survey because data are easily up-loaded into a Geographic Information System (GIS). However, under dense canopies where satellite signals cannot reach the GPS, it may be necessary to revert to a compass survey or a combination of both methods.

Modeling control objectives for business process compliance

Business process design is primarily driven by process improvement objectives. However, the role of control objectives stemming from regulations and standards is becoming increasingly important for businesses in light of recent events that led to some of the largest scandals in corporate history. As organizations strive to meet compliance agendas, there is an evident need to provide systematic approaches that assist in the understanding of the interplay between (often conflicting) business and control objectives during business process design. In this paper, our objective is twofold. We will firstly present a research agenda in the space of business process compliance, identifying major technical and organizational challenges. We then tackle a part of the overall problem space, which deals with the effective modeling of control objectives and subsequently their propagation onto business process models. Control objective modeling is proposed through a specialized modal logic based on normative systems theory, and the visualization of control objectives on business process models is achieved procedurally. The proposed approach is demonstrated in the context of a purchase-to-pay scenario.

Improved methods for predicting individual leaf area and leaf senescence in maize (Zea mays)

The ability to predict leaf area and leaf area index is crucial in crop simulation models that predict crop growth and yield. Previous studies have shown existing methods of predicting leaf area to be inadequate when applied to a broad range of cultivars with different numbers of leaves. The objectives of the study were to (i) develop generalised methods of modelling individual and total plant leaf area, and leaf senescence, that do not require constants that are specific to environments and/or genotypes, (ii) re-examine the base, optimum, and maximum temperatures for calculation of thermal time for leaf senescence, and (iii) assess the method of calculation of individual leaf area from leaf length and leaf width in experimental work. Five cultivars of maize differing widely in maturity and adaptation were planted in October 1994 in south-eastern Queensland, and grown under non-limiting conditions of water and plant nutrient supplies. Additional data for maize plants with low total leaf number (12-17) grown at Katumani Research Centre, Kenya, were included to extend the range in the total leaf number per plant. The equation for the modified (slightly skewed) bell curve could be generalised for modelling individual leaf area, as all coefficients in it were related to total leaf number. Use of coefficients for individual genotypes can be avoided, and individual and total plant leaf area can be calculated from total leaf number. A single, logistic equation, relying on maximum plant leaf area and thermal time from emergence, was developed to predict leaf senescence. The base, optimum, and maximum temperatures for calculation of thermal time for leaf senescence were 8, 34, and 40 degrees C, and apply for the whole crop-cycle when used in modelling of leaf senescence. Thus, the modelling of leaf production and senescence is simplified, improved, and generalised. Consequently, the modelling of leaf area index (LAI) and variables that rely on LAI will be improved. For experimental purposes, we found that the calculation of leaf area from leaf length and leaf width remains appropriate, though the relationship differed slightly from previously published equations.

Distribution of transferrin saturation in an Australian population: Relevance to the early diagnosis of hemochromatosis

Background & Aims: An elevated transferrin saturation is the earliest phenotypic abnormality in hereditary hemochromatosis. Determination of transferrin saturation remains the most useful noninvasive screening test for affected individuals, but there is debate as to the appropriate screening level. The aims of this study were to estimate the mean transferrin saturation in hemochromatosis heterozygotes and normal individuals and to evaluate potential transferrin saturation screening levels. Methods: Statistical mixture modeling was applied to data from a survey of asymptomatic Australians to estimate the mean transferrin saturation in hemochromatosis heterozygotes and normal individuals. To evaluate potential transferrin saturation screening levels, modeling results were compared with data from identified hemochromatosis heterozygotes and homozygotes. Results: After removal of hemochromatosis homozygotes, two populations of transferrin saturation were identified in asymptomatic Australians (P < 0.01). In men, 88.2% of the truncated sample had a lower mean transferrin saturation of 24.1%, whereas 11.8% had an increased mean transferrin saturation of 37.3%. Similar results were found in women, A transferrin saturation threshold of 45% identified 98% of homozygotes without misidentifying any normal individuals. Conclusions: The results confirm that hemochromatosis heterozygotes form a distinct transferrin saturation subpopulation and support the use of transferrin saturation as an inexpensive screening test for hemochromatosis. In practice, a fasting transferrin saturation of greater than or equal to 45% identifies virtually all affected homozygous subjects without necessitating further investigation of unaffected normal individuals.

Prediction of MHC class II-binding peptides using an evolutionary algorithm and artificial neural network

Motivation: Prediction methods for identifying binding peptides could minimize the number of peptides required to be synthesized and assayed, and thereby facilitate the identification of potential T-cell epitopes. We developed a bioinformatic method for the prediction of peptide binding to MHC class II molecules. Results: Experimental binding data and expert knowledge of anchor positions and binding motifs were combined with an evolutionary algorithm (EA) and an artificial neural network (ANN): binding data extraction --> peptide alignment --> ANN training and classification. This method, termed PERUN, was implemented for the prediction of peptides that bind to HLA-DR4(B1*0401). The respective positive predictive values of PERUN predictions of high-, moderate-, low- and zero-affinity binder-a were assessed as 0.8, 0.7, 0.5 and 0.8 by cross-validation, and 1.0, 0.8, 0.3 and 0.7 by experimental binding. This illustrates the synergy between experimentation and computer modeling, and its application to the identification of potential immunotheraaeutic peptides.

Modeling ex vivo hematopoiesis using chemical engineering metaphors

Ex vivo hematopoiesis is increasingly used for clinical applications. Models of ex vivo hematopoiesis are required to better understand the complex dynamics and to optimize hematopoietic culture processes. A general mathematical modeling framework is developed which uses traditional chemical engineering metaphors to describe the complex hematopoietic dynamics. Tanks and tubular reactors are used to describe the (pseudo-) stochastic and deterministic elements of hematopoiesis, respectively. Cells at any point in the differentiation process can belong to either an immobilized, inert phase (quiescent cells) or a mobile, active phase (cycling cells). The model describes five processes: (1) flow (differentiation), (2) autocatalytic formation (growth),(3) degradation (death), (4) phase transition from immobilized to mobile phase (quiescent to cycling transition), and (5) phase transition from mobile to immobilized phase (cycling to quiescent transition). The modeling framework is illustrated with an example concerning the effect of TGF-beta 1 on erythropoiesis. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The 1.1 angstrom resolution crystal structure of [Tyr(15)]EpI, a novel alpha-conotoxin from Conus episcopatus, solved by direct methods

Conotoxins are valuable probes of receptors and ion channels because of their small size and highly selective activity. alpha-Conotoxin EpI, a 16-residue peptide from the mollusk-hunting Conus episcopatus, has the amino acid sequence GCCSDPRCNMNNPDY(SO3H)C-NH2 and appears to be an extremely potent and selective inhibitor of the alpha 3 beta 2 and alpha 3 beta 4 neuronal subtypes of the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (nAChR). The desulfated form of EpI ([Tyr(15)]EpI) has a potency and selectivity for the nAChR receptor similar to those of EpI. Here we describe the crystal structure of [Tyr(15)]EpI solved at a resolution of 1.1 Angstrom using SnB. The asymmetric unit has a total of 284 non-hydrogen atoms, making this one of the largest structures solved de novo try direct methods. The [Tyr(15)]EpI structure brings to six the number of alpha-conotoxin structures that have been determined to date. Four of these, [Tyr(15)]EpI, PnIA, PnIB, and MII, have an alpha 4/7 cysteine framework and are selective for the neuronal subtype of the nAChR. The structure of [Tyr(15)]EpI has the same backbone fold as the other alpha 4/7-conotoxin structures, supporting the notion that this conotoxin cysteine framework and spacing give rise to a conserved fold. The surface charge distribution of [Tyr(15)]EpI is similar to that of PnIA and PnIB but is likely to be different from that of MII, suggesting that [Tyr(15)]EpI and MII may have different binding modes for the same receptor subtype.

Investigations into effective methods for assessing the condition of insulation in aged power transformers

This paper investigates the effective diagnostic technique(s) for assessing the condition of insulation in aged power transformers. A number of electrical, mechanical and chemical techniques were investigated. Many of these techniques are already used by the utility engineers and two comparatively new techniques are proposed in this paper. Results showing the effectiveness of these diagnostics are presented and correlation between the techniques are also presented. Finally, merits and suitability of different techniques are discussed in this paper.