Assessing the business risk of technology obsolescence through enterprise modelling

The problem of technology obsolescence in information intensive businesses (software and hardware no longer being supported and replaced by improved and different solutions) and a cost constrained market can severely increase costs and operational, and ultimately reputation risk. Although many businesses recognise technological obsolescence, the pervasive nature of technology often means they have little information to identify the risk and location of pending obsolescence and little money to apply to the solution. This paper presents a low cost structured method to identify obsolete software and the risk of their obsolescence where the structure of a business and its supporting IT resources can be captured, modelled, analysed and the risk to the business of technology obsolescence identified to enable remedial action using qualified obsolescence information. The technique is based on a structured modelling approach using enterprise architecture models and a heatmap algorithm to highlight high risk obsolescent elements. The method has been tested and applied in practice in two consulting studies carried out by Capgemini involving three UK police forces. However the generic technique could be applied to any industry based on plans to improve it using ontology framework methods. This paper contains details of enterprise architecture meta-models and related modelling.

Association between Mediterranean and Nordic diet scores and changes in weight and waist circumference: influence of FTO and TCF7L2 loci

BACKGROUND: Several studies have shown that adherence to the Mediterranean Diet measured by using the Mediterranean diet score (MDS) is associated with lower obesity risk. The newly proposed Nordic Diet could hold similar beneficial effects. Because of the increasing focus on the interaction between diet and genetic predisposition to adiposity, studies should consider both diet and genetics. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether FTO rs9939609 and TCF7L2 rs7903146 modified the association between the MDS and Nordic diet score (NDS) and changes in weight (Δweight), waist circumference (ΔWC), and waist circumference adjusted for body mass index (BMI) (ΔWCBMI). DESIGN: We conducted a case-cohort study with a median follow-up of 6.8 y that included 11,048 participants from 5 European countries; 5552 of these subjects were cases defined as individuals with the greatest degree of unexplained weight gain during follow-up. A randomly selected subcohort included 6548 participants, including 5496 noncases. Cases and noncases were compared in analyses by using logistic regression. Continuous traits (ie, Δweight, ΔWC, and ΔWCBMI) were analyzed by using linear regression models in the random subcohort. Interactions were tested by including interaction terms in models. RESULTS: A higher MDS was significantly inversely associated with case status (OR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.00), ΔWC (β = -0.010 cm/y; 95% CI: -0.020, -0.001 cm/y), and ΔWCBMI (β = -0.008; 95% CI:-0.015, -0.001) per 1-point increment but not Δweight (P = 0.53). The NDS was not significantly associated with any outcome. There was a borderline significant interaction between the MDS and TCF7L2 rs7903146 on weight gain (P = 0.05), which suggested a beneficial effect of the MDS only in subjects who carried 1 or 2 risk alleles. FTO did not modify observed associations. CONCLUSIONS: A high MDS is associated with a lower ΔWC and ΔWCBMI, regardless of FTO and TCF7L2 risk alleles. For Δweight, findings were less clear, but the effect may depend on the TCF7L2 rs7903146 variant. The NDS was not associated with anthropometric changes during follow-up.

Incorporating toxicokinetics into an individual-based model for more realistic pesticide exposure estimates: A case study of the wood mouse

The potential risk of agricultural pesticides to mammals typically depends on internal concentrations within individuals, and these are determined by the amount ingested and by absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME). Pesticide residues ingested depend, amongst other things, on individual spatial choices which determine how much and when feeding sites and areas of pesticide application overlap, and can be calculated using individual-based models (IBMs). Internal concentrations can be calculated using toxicokinetic (TK) models, which are quantitative representations of ADME processes. Here we provide a population model for the wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) in which TK submodels were incorporated into an IBM representation of individuals making choices about where to feed. This allows us to estimate the contribution of individual spatial choice and TK processes to risk. We compared the risk predicted by four IBMs: (i) “AllExposed-NonTK”: assuming no spatial choice so all mice have 100% exposure, no TK, (ii) “AllExposed-TK”: identical to (i) except that the TK processes are included where individuals vary because they have different temporal patterns of ingestion in the IBM, (iii) “Spatial-NonTK”: individual spatial choice, no TK, and (iv) “Spatial-TK”: individual spatial choice and with TK. The TK parameters for hypothetical pesticides used in this study were selected such that a conventional risk assessment would fail. Exposures were standardised using risk quotients (RQ; exposure divided by LD50 or LC50). We found that for the exposed sub-population including either spatial choice or TK reduced the RQ by 37–85%, and for the total population the reduction was 37–94%. However spatial choice and TK together had little further effect in reducing RQ. The reasons for this are that when the proportion of time spent in treated crop (PT) approaches 1, TK processes dominate and spatial choice has very little effect, and conversely if PT is small spatial choice dominates and TK makes little contribution to exposure reduction. The latter situation means that a short time spent in the pesticide-treated field mimics exposure from a small gavage dose, but TK only makes a substantial difference when the dose was consumed over a longer period. We concluded that a combined TK-IBM is most likely to bring added value to the risk assessment process when the temporal pattern of feeding, time spent in exposed area and TK parameters are at an intermediate level; for instance wood mice in foliar spray scenarios spending more time in crop fields because of better plant cover.

Associations between flavan-3-ol intake and CVD risk in the Norfolk cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC-Norfolk)

Background: Dietary intervention studies suggest that flavan-3-ol intake can improve vascular function and reduce the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD). However, results from prospective studies failed to show a consistent beneficial effect. Objective: To investigate associations between flavan-3-ol intake and CVD risk in the Norfolk arm of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Norfolk). Design: Data was available from 24,885 (11,252 men; 13,633 women) participants, recruited between 1993 and 1997 into the EPIC-Norfolk study. Flavan-3-ol intake was assessed using 7-day food diaries and the FLAVIOLA Flavanol Food Composition database. Missing data for plasma cholesterol and vitamin C were imputed using multiple imputation. Associations between flavan-3-ol intake and blood pressure at baseline were determined using linear regression models. Associations with CVD risk were estimated using Cox regression analyses. Results: Median intake of total flavan-3-ols was 1034 mg/d (range: 0 – 8531 mg/d) for men and 970 mg/d (0 – 6695 mg/d) for women, median intake of flavan-3-ol monomers was 233 mg/d (0 – 3248 mg/d) for men and 217 (0 – 2712 mg/d) for women. There were no consistent associations between flavan-3-ol monomer intake and baseline systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP). After 286,147 person-years of follow up, there were 8463 cardio-vascular events and 1987 CVD related deaths; no consistent association between flavan-3-ol intake and CVD risk (HR 0.93, 95% CI:0.87; 1.00; Q1 vs Q5) or mortality was observed (HR 0.93, 95% CI: 0.84; 1.04). Conclusions: Flavan-3-ol intake in EPIC-Norfolk is not sufficient to achieve a statistically significant reduction in CVD risk.

Radiative forcing and climate metrics for ozone precursor emissions: the impact of multi-model averaging

Multi-model ensembles are frequently used to assess understanding of the response of ozone and methane lifetime to changes in emissions of ozone precursors such as NOx, VOCs (volatile organic compounds) and CO. When these ozone changes are used to calculate radiative forcing (RF) (and climate metrics such as the global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature-change potential (GTP)) there is a methodological choice, determined partly by the available computing resources, as to whether the mean ozone (and methane) concentration changes are input to the radiation code, or whether each model's ozone and methane changes are used as input, with the average RF computed from the individual model RFs. We use data from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution source–receptor global chemical transport model ensemble to assess the impact of this choice for emission changes in four regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia). We conclude that using the multi-model mean ozone and methane responses is accurate for calculating the mean RF, with differences up to 0.6% for CO, 0.7% for VOCs and 2% for NOx. Differences of up to 60% for NOx 7% for VOCs and 3% for CO are introduced into the 20 year GWP. The differences for the 20 year GTP are smaller than for the GWP for NOx, and similar for the other species. However, estimates of the standard deviation calculated from the ensemble-mean input fields (where the standard deviation at each point on the model grid is added to or subtracted from the mean field) are almost always substantially larger in RF, GWP and GTP metrics than the true standard deviation, and can be larger than the model range for short-lived ozone RF, and for the 20 and 100 year GWP and 100 year GTP. The order of averaging has most impact on the metrics for NOx, as the net values for these quantities is the residual of the sum of terms of opposing signs. For example, the standard deviation for the 20 year GWP is 2–3 times larger using the ensemble-mean fields than using the individual models to calculate the RF. The source of this effect is largely due to the construction of the input ozone fields, which overestimate the true ensemble spread. Hence, while the average of multi-model fields are normally appropriate for calculating mean RF, GWP and GTP, they are not a reliable method for calculating the uncertainty in these fields, and in general overestimate the uncertainty.

Climate change modelling and its roles to chinese crops yield

Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model (GCM) downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change (at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct) appears within ±10% for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out

Dietary omega-3 fatty acid and omega-3: omega-6 fatty acid ratio predict improvement in glucose disturbances in Japanese Brazilians

Objective: We investigated whether lifestyle-induced changes in dietary fat quality are related to Improvements on glucose metabolism disturbances in Japanese Brazilians at high risk of type 2 diabetes Methods: One hundred forty-eight first- and second-generation subjects with impaired glucose tolerance or impaired fasting glycemia who attended a lifestyle intervention program for 12 mo were studied in the city of Bauru. State of Sao Paulo, Brazil Dietary fatty acid intakes at baseline and after 12 mo were estimated using three 24-h recalls. The effect of dietary fat intake on glucose metabolism was investigated by multiple logistic regression models Results: At baseline, mean standard deviation age and body mass index were 60 II y and 25 5 4.2 kg/m2, respectively After 12 mo. 92 subjects had normal plasma glucose levels and 56 remained in prediabetic conditions. Using logistic regression models adjusted for age, gender, generation, basal intake of explanatory nutrient, energy intake, physical activity, and waist circumference, the odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for reversion to normoglycemia were 3 14 (1 22-8 10) in the second wrote of total w-3 fatty acid, 4 26 (1.34-13 57) in the second tunic of eicosapentaenoic acid, and 280 (1 10-7.10) in the second tertile of linolenic acid. Similarly. subjects in the highest wrote of w-3.w-6 fatty acid ratio showed a higher chance of improving glucose disturbances (2 51, 1.01-6.37) Conclusions: Our findings support the evidence of an independent protective effect of omega-3 fatty acid and of a higher omega-3:omega-6 fatty acid ratio on the glucose metabolism of high-risk individuals (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved.

Fluctuating abundance of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) in a calving ground off coastal Brazil

The humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) population that uses Abrolhos Bank, off the east coast of Brazil as a breeding ground is increasing. To describe temporal changes in the relative abundance of humpback whales around Abrolhos, seven years (1998-2004) of whale count data were collected during July through to November. During one-hour-scans, observers determined group size within 9.3 km (5 n.m.) of a land-based observing station. A total Of 930 scans, comprising 7996 sightings of adults and 2044 calves were analysed using generalized linear models that included variables for time of day, day of the season, years and two-way interactions as possible predictors. The pattern observed was the gradual build-up and decline in whale counts within seasons. Patterns and peaks of adult and calf counts varied among years. Although fluctuation was observed, there was generally an increasing trend in adult counts among years. Calf counts increased only in 2004. These fluctuations may have been caused by some environmental conditions in humpback whales` summering grounds and also by changes in spatial-temporal concentrations in Abrolhos Bank. The general pattern observed within the study area mirrored what was observed in the whole Abrolhos Bank. Knowledge of the consistency with which humpback whales use this important nursing area should prove beneficial for designing future monitoring programmes especially related to whale watching activities around Abrolhos Archipelago.

Toward a resolution of Campanulid phylogeny, with special reference to the placement of Dipsacales

Broad-scale phylogenetic analyses of the angiosperms and of the Asteridae have failed to confidently resolve relationships among the major lineages of the campanulid Asteridae (i.e., the euasterid II of APG II, 2003). To address this problem we assembled presently available sequences for a core set of 50 taxa, representing the diversity of the four largest lineages (Apiales, Aquifoliales, Asterales, Dipsacales) as well as the smaller ""unplaced"" groups (e.g., Bruniaceae, Paracryphiaceae, Columelliaceae). We constructed four data matrices for phylogenetic analysis: a chloroplast coding matrix (atpB, matK, ndhF, rbcL), a chloroplast non-coding matrix (rps16 intron, trnT-F region, trnV-atpE IGS), a combined chloroplast dataset (all seven chloroplast regions), and a combined genome matrix (seven chloroplast regions plus 18S and 26S rDNA). Bayesian analyses of these datasets using mixed substitution models produced often well-resolved and supported trees. Consistent with more weakly supported results from previous studies, our analyses support the monophyly of the four major clades and the relationships among them. Most importantly, Asterales are inferred to be sister to a clade containing Apiales and Dipsacales. Paracryphiaceae is consistently placed sister to the Dipsacales. However, the exact relationships of Bruniaceae, Columelliaceae, and an Escallonia clade depended upon the dataset. Areas of poor resolution in combined analyses may be partly explained by conflict between the coding and non-coding data partitions. We discuss the implications of these results for our understanding of campanulid phylogeny and evolution, paying special attention to how our findings bear on character evolution and biogeography in Dipsacales.

Polarization and Spectral Shift of Benzophenone in Supercritical Water

Monte Carlo simulation and quantum mechanics calculations based on the INDO/CIS and TD-DFT methods were utilized to study the solvatochromic shift of benzophenone when changing the environment from normal water to supercritical (P = 340.2 atm and T = 673 K) condition. Solute polarization increases the dipole moment of benzophenone, compared to gas phase, by 88 and 35% in normal and supercritical conditions, giving the in-solvent dipole value of 5.8 and 4.2 D, respectively. The average number of solute-solvent hydrogen bonds was analyzed, and a large decrease of 2.3 in normal water to only 0.8 in the supercritical environment was found. By using these polarized models of benzophenone in the two different conditions of water, we performed MC simulations to generate statistically uncorrelated configurations of the solute surrounded by the solvent molecules and subsequent quantum mechanics calculations on these configurations. When changing from normal to supercritical water environment, INDO/CIS calculations explicitly considering all valence electrons of the 235 solvent water molecules resulted in a solvatochromic shift of 1425 cm(-1) for the most intense transition of benzophenone, that is, slightly underestimated in comparison with the experimentally inferred result of 1700 cm(-1). TD-B3LYP/6-311+G(2d,p) calculations on the same configurations but with benzophenone electrostatically embedded in the 320 water molecules resulted in a solvatochromic shift of 1715 cm(-1) for this transition, in very good agreement with the experimental result. When using the unpolarized model of the benzophenone, this calculated solvatochromic shift was only 640 cm(-1). Additional calculations were also made by using BHandHLYP/6-311+G(2d,p) to analyze the effect of the asymptotic decay of the exchange functional. This study indicates that, contrary to the general expectation, there is a sizable solute polarization even in the low-density regime of supercritical condition and that the inclusion of this polarization is important for a reliable description of the spectral shifts considered here.

Reaction mechanisms in the (6)Li+(59)Co system

The reactions induced by the weakly bound (6)Li projectile interacting with the intermediate mass target (59)Co were investigated. Light charged particles singles and alpha-d coincidence measurements were performed at the near barrier energies E(lab) = 17.4, 21.5, 25.5 and 29.6 MeV. The main contributions of the different competing mechanisms are discussed. A statistical model analysis. Continuum-Discretized Coupled-Channels (CDCC) calculations and two-body kinematics were used as tools to provide information to disentangle the main components of these mechanisms. A significant contribution of the direct breakup was observed through the difference between the experimental sequential breakup cross section and the CDCC prediction for the non-capture breakup cross section. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A multi-GPU algorithm for large-scale neuronal networks

Large-scale simulations of parts of the brain using detailed neuronal models to improve our understanding of brain functions are becoming a reality with the usage of supercomputers and large clusters. However, the high acquisition and maintenance cost of these computers, including the physical space, air conditioning, and electrical power, limits the number of simulations of this kind that scientists can perform. Modern commodity graphical cards, based on the CUDA platform, contain graphical processing units (GPUs) composed of hundreds of processors that can simultaneously execute thousands of threads and thus constitute a low-cost solution for many high-performance computing applications. In this work, we present a CUDA algorithm that enables the execution, on multiple GPUs, of simulations of large-scale networks composed of biologically realistic Hodgkin-Huxley neurons. The algorithm represents each neuron as a CUDA thread, which solves the set of coupled differential equations that model each neuron. Communication among neurons located in different GPUs is coordinated by the CPU. We obtained speedups of 40 for the simulation of 200k neurons that received random external input and speedups of 9 for a network with 200k neurons and 20M neuronal connections, in a single computer with two graphic boards with two GPUs each, when compared with a modern quad-core CPU. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Flexibility and inhibitor binding in Cdc25 phosphatases

Cdc25 phosphatases involved in cell cycle checkpoints are now active targets for the development of anti-cancer therapies. Rational drug design would certainly benefit from detailed structural information for Cdc25s. However, only apo- or sulfate-bound crystal structures of the Cdc25 catalytic domain have been described so far. Together with previously available crystalographic data, results from molecular dynamics simulations, bioinformatic analysis, and computer-generated conformational ensembles shown here indicate that the last 30-40 residues in the C-terminus of Cdc25B are partially unfolded or disordered in solution. The effect of C-terminal flexibility upon binding of two potent small molecule inhibitors to Cdc25B is then analyzed by using three structural models with variable levels of flexibility, including an equilibrium distributed ensemble of Cdc25B backbone conformations. The three Cdc25B structural models are used in combination with flexible docking, clustering, and calculation of binding free energies by the linear interaction energy approximation to construct and validate Cdc25B-inhibitor complexes. Two binding sites are identified on top and beside the Cdc25B active site. The diversity of interaction modes found increases with receptor flexibility. Backbone flexibility allows the formation of transient cavities or compact hydrophobic units on the surface of the stable, folded protein core that are unexposed or unavailable for ligand binding in rigid and densely packed crystal structures. The present results may help to speculate on the mechanisms of small molecule complexation to partially unfolded or locally disordered proteins.

Discrepancies in solar irradiation data for Stockholm and Athens

The aim of this study is to evaluate the variation of solar radiation data between different data sources that will be free and available at the Solar Energy Research Center (SERC). The comparison between data sources will be carried out for two locations: Stockholm, Sweden and Athens, Greece. For the desired locations, data is gathered for different tilt angles: 0°, 30°, 45°, 60° facing south. The full dataset is available in two excel files: “Stockholm annual irradiation” and “Athens annual irradiation”. The World Radiation Data Center (WRDC) is defined as a reference for the comparison with other dtaasets, because it has the highest time span recorded for Stockholm (1964–2010) and Athens (1964–1986), in form of average monthly irradiation, expressed in kWh/m2. The indicator defined for the data comparison is the estimated standard deviation. The mean biased error (MBE) and the root mean square error (RMSE) were also used as statistical indicators for the horizontal solar irradiation data. The variation in solar irradiation data is categorized in two categories: natural or inter-annual variability, due to different data sources and lastly due to different calculation models. The inter-annual variation for Stockholm is 140.4kWh/m2 or 14.4% and 124.3kWh/m2 or 8.0% for Athens. The estimated deviation for horizontal solar irradiation is 3.7% for Stockholm and 4.4% Athens. This estimated deviation is respectively equal to 4.5% and 3.6% for Stockholm and Athens at 30° tilt, 5.2% and 4.5% at 45° tilt, 5.9% and 7.0% at 60°. NASA’s SSE, SAM and RETScreen (respectively Satel-light) exhibited the highest deviation from WRDC’s data for Stockholm (respectively Athens). The essential source for variation is notably the difference in horizontal solar irradiation. The variation increases by 1-2% per degree of tilt, using different calculation models, as used in PVSYST and Meteonorm. The location and altitude of the data source did not directly influence the variation with the WRDC data. Further examination is suggested in order to improve the methodology of selecting the location; Examining the functional dependence of ground reflected radiation with ambient temperature; variation of ambient temperature and its impact on different solar energy systems; Im pact of variation in solar irradiation and ambient temperature on system output.

A pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model for duodenal levodopa infusion

Objective Levodopa in presence of decarboxylase inhibitors is following two-compartment kinetics and its effect is typically modelled using sigmoid Emax models. Pharmacokinetic modelling of the absorption phase of oral distributions is problematic because of irregular gastric emptying. The purpose of this work was to identify and estimate a population pharmacokinetic- pharmacodynamic model for duodenal infusion of levodopa/carbidopa (Duodopa®) that can be used for in numero simulation of treatment strategies. Methods The modelling involved pooling data from two studies and fixing some parameters to values found in literature (Chan et al. J Pharmacokinet Pharmacodyn. 2005 Aug;32(3-4):307-31). The first study involved 12 patients on 3 occasions and is described in Nyholm et al. Clinical Neuropharmacology 2003:26:156-63. The second study, PEDAL, involved 3 patients on 2 occasions. A bolus dose (normal morning dose plus 50%) was given after a washout during night. Plasma samples and motor ratings (clinical assessment of motor function from video recordings on a treatment response scale between -3 and 3, where -3 represents severe parkinsonism and 3 represents severe dyskinesia.) were repeatedly collected until the clinical effect was back at baseline. At this point, the usual infusion rate was started and sampling continued for another two hours. Different structural absorption models and effect models were evaluated using the value of the objective function in the NONMEM package. Population mean parameter values, standard error of estimates (SE) and if possible, interindividual/interoccasion variability (IIV/IOV) were estimated. Results Our results indicate that Duodopa absorption can be modelled with an absorption compartment with an added bioavailability fraction and a lag time. The most successful effect model was of sigmoid Emax type with a steep Hill coefficient and an effect compartment delay. Estimated parameter values are presented in the table. Conclusions The absorption and effect models were reasonably successful in fitting observed data and can be used in simulation experiments.