Further notes on the application of zero-inflated models in highway safety

The intent of this note is to succinctly articulate additional points that were not provided in the original paper (Lord et al., 2005) and to help clarify a collective reluctance to adopt zero-inflated (ZI) models for modeling highway safety data. A dialogue on this important issue, just one of many important safety modeling issues, is healthy discourse on the path towards improved safety modeling. This note first provides a summary of prior findings and conclusions of the original paper. It then presents two critical and relevant issues: the maximizing statistical fit fallacy and logic problems with the ZI model in highway safety modeling. Finally, we provide brief conclusions.

Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

Railway junction traffic control by heuristic methods

Traffic conflicts at railway junctions are very conmon, particularly on congested rail lines. While safe passage through the junction is well maintained by the signalling and interlocking systems, minimising the delays imposed on the trains by assigning the right-of-way sequence sensibly is a bonus to the quality of service. A deterministic method has been adopted to resolve the conflict, with the objective of minimising the total weighted delay. However, the computational demand remains significant. The applications of different heuristic methods to tackle this problem are reviewed and explored, elaborating their feasibility in various aspects and comparing their relative merits for further studies. As most heuristic methods do not guarantee a global optimum, this study focuses on the trade-off between computation time and optimality of the resolution.

Diagnostic and treatment pathways for men with prostate cancer in Queensland : investigating spatial and demographic inequalities

Background: Patterns of diagnosis and management for men diagnosed with prostate cancer in Queensland, Australia, have not yet been systematically documented and so assumptions of equity are untested. This longitudinal study investigates the association between prostate cancer diagnostic and treatment outcomes and key area-level characteristics and individual-level demographic, clinical and psychosocial factors.---------- Methods/Design: A total of 1064 men diagnosed with prostate cancer between February 2005 and July 2007 were recruited through hospital-based urology outpatient clinics and private practices in the centres of Brisbane, Townsville and Mackay (82% of those referred). Additional clinical and diagnostic information for all 6609 men diagnosed with prostate cancer in Queensland during the study period was obtained via the population-based Queensland Cancer Registry. Respondent data are collected using telephone and self-administered questionnaires at pre-treatment and at 2 months, 6 months, 12 months, 24 months, 36 months, 48 months and 60 months post-treatment. Assessments include demographics, medical history, patterns of care, disease and treatment characteristics together with outcomes associated with prostate cancer, as well as information about quality of life and psychological adjustment. Complementary detailed treatment information is abstracted from participants’ medical records held in hospitals and private treatment facilities and collated with health service utilisation data obtained from Medicare Australia. Information about the characteristics of geographical areas is being obtained from data custodians such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Geo-coding and spatial technology will be used to calculate road travel distances from patients’ residences to treatment centres. Analyses will be conducted using standard statistical methods along with multilevel regression models including individual and area-level components.---------- Conclusions: Information about the diagnostic and treatment patterns of men diagnosed with prostate cancer is crucial for rational planning and development of health delivery and supportive care services to ensure equitable access to health services, regardless of geographical location and individual characteristics. This study is a secondary outcome of the randomised controlled trial registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12607000233426)

The significance of owner participation in a successful detached housing development in Malaysia: A literature review

The detached housing scheme is a unique and exclusive segment of the residential property market in Malaysia. Generally, the product is expensive and for many Malaysians who can afford them, owning a detached house is a once in a lifetime opportunity. In spite of this, most of the owners fail to fully comprehend the specific need of this type of housing scheme, increasing the risk of it being a problematic project. Unlike other types of pre-designed ‘mass housing’ schemes, the detached housing scheme may be built specifically to cater the needs and demands of its owner. Therefore, maximum owner participation is vital as the development progresses to guarantee the success of the project. In addition, due to it’s unique design the house would have to individually comply with the requirements and regulations of relevant authorities. Failure of owner to recognise this will result in delays, fines and penalties, disputes and ultimately cost overruns. These circumstances highlight the need for a model to guide the owner through the entire development process of a detached house. Therefore, this research aims to develop a model for a successful detached housing development in Malaysia through maximising owner participation during it’s various development stages. To achieve this, questionnaire surveys and case studies methods shall be employed to acquire the detached housing owners’ experiences in developing their detached houses in Malaysia. Relevant statistical tools shall be applied to analyse the responses. The results gained from this study shall be synthesised into a model of successful detached housing development for the reference of future detached housing owners in Malaysia.

Visual assessment of pedestrian crashes

Of the numerous factors that play a role in fatal pedestrian collisions, the time of day, day of the week, and time of year can be significant determinants. More than 60% of all pedestrian collisions in 2007 occurred at night, despite the presumed decrease in both pedestrian and automobile exposure during the night. Although this trend is partially explained by factors such as fatigue and alcohol consumption, prior analysis of the Fatality Analysis Reporting System database suggests that pedestrian fatalities increase as light decreases after controlling for other factors. This study applies graphical cross-tabulation, a novel visual assessment approach, to explore the relationships among collision variables. The results reveal that twilight and the first hour of darkness typically observe the greatest frequency of pedestrian fatal collisions. These hours are not necessarily the most risky on a per mile travelled basis, however, because pedestrian volumes are often still high. Additional analysis is needed to quantify the extent to which pedestrian exposure (walking/crossing activity) in these time periods plays a role in pedestrian crash involvement. Weekly patterns of pedestrian fatal collisions vary by time of year due to the seasonal changes in sunset time. In December, collisions are concentrated around twilight and the first hour of darkness throughout the week while, in June, collisions are most heavily concentrated around twilight and the first hours of darkness on Friday and Saturday. Friday and Saturday nights in June may be the most dangerous times for pedestrians. Knowing when pedestrian risk is highest is critically important for formulating effective mitigation strategies and for efficiently investing safety funds. This applied visual approach is a helpful tool for researchers intending to communicate with policy-makers and to identify relationships that can then be tested with more sophisticated statistical tools.

Beyond statistical procedures for predictive modelling: Data mining algorithms and support for university research at QUT

In a seminal data mining article, Leo Breiman [1] argued that to develop effective predictive classification and regression models, we need to move away from the sole dependency on statistical algorithms and embrace a wider toolkit of modeling algorithms that include data mining procedures. Nevertheless, many researchers still rely solely on statistical procedures when undertaking data modeling tasks; the sole reliance on these procedures has lead to the development of irrelevant theory and questionable research conclusions ([1], p.199). We will outline initiatives that the HPC & Research Support group is undertaking to engage researchers with data mining tools and techniques; including a new range of seminars, workshops, and one-on-one consultations covering data mining algorithms, the relationship between data mining and the research cycle, and limitations and problems with these new algorithms. Organisational limitations and restrictions to these initiatives are also discussed.

Wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods for complex process models

Many industrial processes and systems can be modelled mathematically by a set of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). Finding a solution to such a PDF model is essential for system design, simulation, and process control purpose. However, major difficulties appear when solving PDEs with singularity. Traditional numerical methods, such as finite difference, finite element, and polynomial based orthogonal collocation, not only have limitations to fully capture the process dynamics but also demand enormous computation power due to the large number of elements or mesh points for accommodation of sharp variations. To tackle this challenging problem, wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods have been recently developed with successful applications to a fixedbed adsorption column model. Our investigation has shown that recent advances in wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods have the potential to be adopted for solving more complicated dynamic system models. This chapter will highlight the successful applications of these new methods in solving complex models of simulated-moving-bed (SMB) chromatographic processes. A SMB process is a distributed parameter system and can be mathematically described by a set of partial/ordinary differential equations and algebraic equations. These equations are highly coupled; experience wave propagations with steep front, and require significant numerical effort to solve. To demonstrate the numerical computing power of the wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods, a single column chromatographic process modelled by a Transport-Dispersive-Equilibrium linear model is investigated first. Numerical solutions from the upwind-1 finite difference, wavelet-collocation, and high resolution methods are evaluated by quantitative comparisons with the analytical solution for a range of Peclet numbers. After that, the advantages of the wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods are further demonstrated through applications to a dynamic SMB model for an enantiomers separation process. This research has revealed that for a PDE system with a low Peclet number, all existing numerical methods work well, but the upwind finite difference method consumes the most time for the same degree of accuracy of the numerical solution. The high resolution method provides an accurate numerical solution for a PDE system with a medium Peclet number. The wavelet collocation method is capable of catching up steep changes in the solution, and thus can be used for solving PDE models with high singularity. For the complex SMB system models under consideration, both the wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods are good candidates in terms of computation demand and prediction accuracy on the steep front. The high resolution methods have shown better stability in achieving steady state in the specific case studied in this Chapter.

Derivation of motor vehicle tailpipe particle emission factors suitable for modelling urban fleet emissions and air quality assessments

Background, aim, and scope Urban motor vehicle fleets are a major source of particulate matter pollution, especially of ultrafine particles (diameters < 0.1 µm), and exposure to particulate matter has known serious health effects. A considerable body of literature is available on vehicle particle emission factors derived using a wide range of different measurement methods for different particle sizes, conducted in different parts of the world. Therefore the choice as to which are the most suitable particle emission factors to use in transport modelling and health impact assessments presented as a very difficult task. The aim of this study was to derive a comprehensive set of tailpipe particle emission factors for different vehicle and road type combinations, covering the full size range of particles emitted, which are suitable for modelling urban fleet emissions. Materials and methods A large body of data available in the international literature on particle emission factors for motor vehicles derived from measurement studies was compiled and subjected to advanced statistical analysis, to determine the most suitable emission factors to use in modelling urban fleet emissions. Results This analysis resulted in the development of five statistical models which explained 86%, 93%, 87%, 65% and 47% of the variation in published emission factors for particle number, particle volume, PM1, PM2.5 and PM10 respectively. A sixth model for total particle mass was proposed but no significant explanatory variables were identified in the analysis. From the outputs of these statistical models, the most suitable particle emission factors were selected. This selection was based on examination of the statistical robustness of the statistical model outputs, including consideration of conservative average particle emission factors with the lowest standard errors, narrowest 95% confidence intervals and largest sample sizes, and the explanatory model variables, which were Vehicle Type (all particle metrics), Instrumentation (particle number and PM2.5), Road Type (PM10) and Size Range Measured and Speed Limit on the Road (particle volume). Discussion A multiplicity of factors need to be considered in determining emission factors that are suitable for modelling motor vehicle emissions, and this study derived a set of average emission factors suitable for quantifying motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions in developed countries. Conclusions The comprehensive set of tailpipe particle emission factors presented in this study for different vehicle and road type combinations enable the full size range of particles generated by fleets to be quantified, including ultrafine particles (measured in terms of particle number). These emission factors have particular application for regions which may have a lack of funding to undertake measurements, or insufficient measurement data upon which to derive emission factors for their region. Recommendations and perspectives In urban areas motor vehicles continue to be a major source of particulate matter pollution and of ultrafine particles. It is critical that in order to manage this major pollution source methods are available to quantify the full size range of particles emitted for traffic modelling and health impact assessments.

Application of chemometrics to analysis of soil pollutants

This overview focuses on the application of chemometrics techniques for the investigation of soils contaminated by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and metals because these two important and very diverse groups of pollutants are ubiquitous in soils. The salient features of various studies carried out in the micro- and recreational environments of humans, are highlighted in the context of the various multivariate statistical techniques available across discipline boundaries that have been effectively used in soil studies. Particular attention is paid to techniques employed in the geosciences that may be effectively utilized for environmental soil studies; classical multivariate approaches that may be used in isolation or as complementary methods to these are also discussed. Chemometrics techniques widely applied in atmospheric studies for identifying sources of pollutants or for determining the importance of contaminant source contributions to a particular site, have seen little use in soil studies, but may be effectively employed in such investigations. Suitable programs are also available for suggesting mitigating measures in cases of soil contamination, and these are also considered. Specific techniques reviewed include pattern recognition techniques such as Principal Components Analysis (PCA), Fuzzy Clustering (FC) and Cluster Analysis (CA); geostatistical tools include variograms, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), contour mapping and kriging; source identification and contribution estimation methods reviewed include Positive Matrix Factorisation (PMF), and Principal Component Analysis on Absolute Principal Component Scores (PCA/APCS). Mitigating measures to limit or eliminate pollutant sources may be suggested through the use of ranking analysis and multi criteria decision making methods (MCDM). These methods are mainly represented in this review by studies employing the Preference Ranking Organisation Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) and its associated graphic output, Geometrical Analysis for Interactive Aid (GAIA).

Critical success factors of project management for Brunei construction projects : improving project performance

The problem of delays in the construction industry is a global phenomenon and the construction industry in Brunei Darussalam is no exception. The goal of all parties involved in construction projects – owners, contractors, engineers and consultants in either the public or private sector is to successfully complete the project on schedule, within planned budget, with the highest quality and in the safest manner. Construction projects are frequently influenced by either success factors that help project parties reach their goal as planned, or delay factors that stifle or postpone project completion. The purpose of this research is to identify success and delay factors which can help project parties reach their intended goals with greater efficiency. This research extracted seven of the most important success factors according to the literature and seven of the most important delay factors identified by project parties, and then examined correlations between them to determine which were the most influential in preventing project delays. This research uses a comprehensive literature review to design and conduct a survey to investigate success and delay factors and then obtain a consensus of expert opinion using the Delphi methodology to rank the most needed critical success factors for Brunei construction projects. A specific survey was distributed to owners, contractors and engineers to examine the most critical delay factors. A general survey was distributed to examine the correlation between the identified delay factors and the seven most important critical success factors selected. A consensus of expert opinion using the Delphi methodology was used to rank the most needed critical success factors for Brunei building construction. Data was collected and evaluated by statistical methods to identify the most significant causes of delay and to measure the strength and direction of the relationship between critical success factors and delay factors in order to examine project parties’ evaluation of projects’ critical success and delay factors, and to evaluate the influence of critical success factors on critical delay factors. A relative importance index has been used to determine the relative importance of the various causes of delays. A one and two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) has been used to examine how the group or groups evaluated the influence of the critical success factors in avoiding or preventing each of the delay factors, and which success factors were perceived as most influential in avoiding or preventing critical delay factors. Finally the Delphi method, using consensus from an expert panel, was employed to identify the seven most critical success factors used to avoid the delay factors, and thereby improve project performance.

Analysis of cardiac and epileptic signals using higher order spectra

The theory of nonlinear dyamic systems provides some new methods to handle complex systems. Chaos theory offers new concepts, algorithms and methods for processing, enhancing and analyzing the measured signals. In recent years, researchers are applying the concepts from this theory to bio-signal analysis. In this work, the complex dynamics of the bio-signals such as electrocardiogram (ECG) and electroencephalogram (EEG) are analyzed using the tools of nonlinear systems theory. In the modern industrialized countries every year several hundred thousands of people die due to sudden cardiac death. The Electrocardiogram (ECG) is an important biosignal representing the sum total of millions of cardiac cell depolarization potentials. It contains important insight into the state of health and nature of the disease afflicting the heart. Heart rate variability (HRV) refers to the regulation of the sinoatrial node, the natural pacemaker of the heart by the sympathetic and parasympathetic branches of the autonomic nervous system. Heart rate variability analysis is an important tool to observe the heart's ability to respond to normal regulatory impulses that affect its rhythm. A computerbased intelligent system for analysis of cardiac states is very useful in diagnostics and disease management. Like many bio-signals, HRV signals are non-linear in nature. Higher order spectral analysis (HOS) is known to be a good tool for the analysis of non-linear systems and provides good noise immunity. In this work, we studied the HOS of the HRV signals of normal heartbeat and four classes of arrhythmia. This thesis presents some general characteristics for each of these classes of HRV signals in the bispectrum and bicoherence plots. Several features were extracted from the HOS and subjected an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test. The results are very promising for cardiac arrhythmia classification with a number of features yielding a p-value < 0.02 in the ANOVA test. An automated intelligent system for the identification of cardiac health is very useful in healthcare technology. In this work, seven features were extracted from the heart rate signals using HOS and fed to a support vector machine (SVM) for classification. The performance evaluation protocol in this thesis uses 330 subjects consisting of five different kinds of cardiac disease conditions. The classifier achieved a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 89%. This system is ready to run on larger data sets. In EEG analysis, the search for hidden information for identification of seizures has a long history. Epilepsy is a pathological condition characterized by spontaneous and unforeseeable occurrence of seizures, during which the perception or behavior of patients is disturbed. An automatic early detection of the seizure onsets would help the patients and observers to take appropriate precautions. Various methods have been proposed to predict the onset of seizures based on EEG recordings. The use of nonlinear features motivated by the higher order spectra (HOS) has been reported to be a promising approach to differentiate between normal, background (pre-ictal) and epileptic EEG signals. In this work, these features are used to train both a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) classifier and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. Results show that the classifiers were able to achieve 93.11% and 92.67% classification accuracy, respectively, with selected HOS based features. About 2 hours of EEG recordings from 10 patients were used in this study. This thesis introduces unique bispectrum and bicoherence plots for various cardiac conditions and for normal, background and epileptic EEG signals. These plots reveal distinct patterns. The patterns are useful for visual interpretation by those without a deep understanding of spectral analysis such as medical practitioners. It includes original contributions in extracting features from HRV and EEG signals using HOS and entropy, in analyzing the statistical properties of such features on real data and in automated classification using these features with GMM and SVM classifiers.

Tracking employees’ twists and turns : a mixed methods approach to assessing change in the psychological contract

The psychological contract has emerged over the past 60 years as a key analytical device for both academics and practitioners to conceptualise and explain the employment relationship. However, despite the recognised import of this field, some authors suggest it has fallen into a ‘methodological rut’ and is neglecting to empirically assess basic theoretical tenets of the concept – such as the temporal and individualised, subjective nature of the construct. This paper describes the research design of a longitudinal, mixed methods study to explore development and change in the psychological contract and outline how the use of individual growth modelling can be a powerful tool in analysing the type of quantitative data collected. Finally, by briefly outlining the benefits of this approach, the paper seeks to offer an alternative methodology to explore the dynamic and intra-individual processes within the psychological contract domain.

Improving governance : practical methods and an analytic framework for the enhancement of democracy

Seven endemic governance problems are shown to be currently present in governments around the globe and at any level of government as well (for example municipal, federal). These problems have their roots traced back through more than two thousand years of political, specifically ‘democratic’, history. The evidence shows that accountability, transparency, corruption, representation, campaigning methods, constitutionalism and long-term goals were problematic for the ancient Athenians as well as modern international democratisation efforts encompassing every major global region. Why then, given the extended time period humans have had to deal with these problems, are they still present? At least part of the answer to this question is that philosophers, academics and NGOs as well as MNOs have only approached these endemic problems in a piecemeal manner with a skewed perspective on democracy. Their works have also been subject to the ebbs and flows of human history which essentially started and stopped periods of thinking. In order to approach the investigation of endemic problems in relation to democracy (as the overall quest of this thesis was to generate prescriptive results for the improvement of democratic government), it was necessary to delineate what exactly is being written about when using the term ‘democracy’. It is common knowledge that democracy has no one specific definition or practice, even though scholars and philosophers have been attempting to create a definition for generations. What is currently evident, is that scholars are not approaching democracy in an overly simplified manner (that is, it is government for the people, by the people) but, rather, are seeking the commonalities that democracies share, in other words, those items which are common to all things democratic. Following that specific line of investigation, the major practiced and theoretical versions of democracy were thematically analysed. After that, their themes were collapsed into larger categories, at which point the larger categories were comparatively analysed with the practiced and theoretical versions of democracy. Four democratic ‘particles’ (selecting officials, law, equality and communication) were seen to be present in all practiced and theoretical democratic styles. The democratic particles fused with a unique investigative perspective and in-depth political study created a solid conceptualisation of democracy. As such, it is argued that democracy is an ever-present element of any state government, ‘democratic’ or not, and the particles are the bodies which comprise the democratic element. Frequency- and proximity-based analyses showed that democratic particles are related to endemic problems in international democratisation discourse. The linkages between democratic particles and endemic problems were also evident during the thematic analysis as well historical review. This ultimately led to the viewpoint that if endemic problems are mitigated the act may improve democratic particles which might strengthen the element of democracy in the governing apparatus of any state. Such may actively minimise or wholly displace inefficient forms of government, leading to a government specifically tailored to the population it orders. Once the theoretical and empirical goals were attained, this thesis provided some prescriptive measures which government, civil society, academics, professionals and/or active citizens can use to mitigate endemic problems (in any country and at any level of government) so as to improve the human condition via better democratic government.

Near infrared for non-destructive testing of articular cartilage

The concept of non-destructive testing (NDT) of materials and structures is of immense importance in engineering and medicine. Several NDT methods including electromagnetic (EM)-based e.g. X-ray and Infrared; ultrasound; and S-waves have been proposed for medical applications. This paper evaluates the viability of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy, an EM method for rapid non-destructive evaluation of articular cartilage. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that there is a correlation between the NIR spectrum and the physical and mechanical characteristics of articular cartilage such as thickness, stress and stiffness. Intact, visually normal cartilage-on-bone plugs from 2-3yr old bovine patellae were exposed to NIR light from a diffuse reflectance fibre-optic probe and tested mechanically to obtain their thickness, stress, and stiffness. Multivariate statistical analysis-based predictive models relating articular cartilage NIR spectra to these characterising parameters were developed. Our results show that there is a varying degree of correlation between the different parameters and the NIR spectra of the samples with R2 varying between 65 and 93%. We therefore conclude that NIR can be used to determine, nondestructively, the physical and functional characteristics of articular cartilage.