Supply chain management as beyond operational efficiency

The orthodoxy of supply chain management (SCM) emphasises competitive advantage through increased operational efficiency and market responsiveness from production and distribution processes into the hands of consumers. It anticipates that future competition will be between chains rather than between firms. While well established in other industry sectors, the SCM concept is newly developed in the Australian agri-food sector. Critical review of the concept has identified key issues of power among channel members, processes of chain initiation and innovation, and the inability of SCM to offer a viable business strategy for some firms. Building on those insights, this paper examines the supply chain concept for horticulture. Horticultural products are characterised by perishability, heterogeneity and lags in production response to market signals. Producers’ profits are vulnerable to quantity, timing of supply and product specification. Many supply chains in smaller industries are loose, fragmented, interwoven, unstable and unique! Firms operating within these environments need an astute understanding of the chains, the hierarchy of channel members and their relative position. Effective business strategies – for individual firms and supply chains - need to be developed and redeveloped to accommodate the dynamic nature of horticulture. Two case studies are discussed as contributions to this early stage of the theoretical development of supply chain management. The SCM concept also has implications for horticultural researchers, involving a wider range of industry stakeholders, technical problems and research skills. As for business management, the usefulness of the concept will depend on its capacity to increase responsiveness to customers’ preferences and customer value.

Review and future directions in the modelling and control of continuous drum granulation

Many granulation plants operate well below design capacity, suffering from high recycle rates and even periodic instabilities. This behaviour cannot be fully predicted using the present models. The main objective of the paper is to provide an overview of the current status of model development for granulation processes and suggest future directions for research and development. The end-use of the models is focused on the optimal design and control of granulation plants using the improved predictions of process dynamics. The development of novel models involving mechanistically based structural switching methods is proposed in the paper. A number of guidelines are proposed for the selection of control relevant model structures. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

A methodology for building energy modelling and calibration in warm climates

In the last 7 years, a method has been developed to analyse building energy performance using computer simulation, in Brazil. The method combines analysis of building design plans and documentation, walk-through visits, electric and thermal measurements and the use of an energy simulation tool (DOE-2.1E code), The method was used to model more than 15 office buildings (more than 200 000 m(2)), located between 12.5degrees and 27.5degrees South latitude. The paper describes the basic methodology, with data for one building and presents additional results for other six cases. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical modelling of contaminant transport in coastal aquifers

This paper employs a two-dimensional variable density flow and transport model to investigate the transport of a dense contaminant plume in an unconfined coastal aquifer. Experimental results are also presented to show the contaminant plume in a freshwater-seawater flow system. Both the numerical and experimental results suggest that the neglect of the seawater interface does not noticeably affect the horizontal migration rate of the plume before it reaches the interface. However, the contaminant will travel further seaward and part of the solute mass will exit under the sea if the higher seawater density is not included. If the seawater density is included, the contaminant will travel upwards towards the beach along the freshwater-saltwater interface as shown experimentally. Neglect of seawater density, therefore, will result in an underestimate of solute mass rate exiting around the coastline. (C) 2002 IMACS. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Tillering in grain sorghum over a wide range of population densities: Modelling dynamics of tiller fertility

The prediction of tillering is poor or absent in existing sorghum crop models even though fertile tillers contribute significantly to grain yield. The objective of this study was to identify general quantitative relationships underpinning tiller dynamics of sorghum for a broad range of assimilate availabilities. Emergence, phenology, leaf area development and fertility of individual main calms and tillers were quantified weekly in plants grown at one of four plant densities ranging from two to 16 plants m(-2). On any given day, a tiller was considered potentially fertile (a posteriori) if its number of leaves continued to increase thereafter. The dynamics of potentially fertile tiller number per plant varied greatly with plant density, but could generally be described by three determinants, stable across plant densities: tiller emergence rate aligned with leaf ligule appearance rate; cessation of tiller emergence occurred at a stable leaf area index; and rate of decrease in potentially fertile tillers was linearly related to the ratio of realized to potential leaf area growth. Realized leaf area growth is the measured increase in leaf area, whereas potential leaf area growth is the estimated increase in leaf area if all potentially fertile tillers were to continue to develop. Procedures to predict this ratio, by estimating realized leaf area per plant from intercepted radiation and potential leaf area per plant from the number and type of developing axes, are presented. While it is suitable for modelling tiller dynamics in grain sorghum, this general framework needs to be validated by testing it in different environments and for other cultivars. (C) 2002 Annals of Botany Company.

Future contributions of crop modelling - from heuristics and supporting decision making to understanding genetic regulation and aiding crop improvement

Crop modelling has evolved over the last 30 or so years in concert with advances in crop physiology, crop ecology and computing technology. Having reached a respectable degree of acceptance, it is appropriate to review briefly the course of developments in crop modelling and to project what might be major contributions of crop modelling in the future. Two major opportunities are envisioned for increased modelling activity in the future. One opportunity is in a continuing central, heuristic role to support scientific investigation, to facilitate decision making by crop managers, and to aid in education. Heuristic activities will also extend to the broader system-level issues of environmental and ecological aspects of crop production. The second opportunity is projected as a prime contributor in understanding and advancing the genetic regulation of plant performance and plant improvement. Physiological dissection and modelling of traits provides an avenue by which crop modelling could contribute to enhancing integration of molecular genetic technologies in crop improvement. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A probabilistic analysis of Clostridium perfringens growth during food service operations

The purpose of this study was threefold: first, the study was designed to illustrate the use of data and information collected in food safety surveys in a quantitative risk assessment. In this case, the focus was on the food service industry; however, similar data from other parts of the food chain could be similarly incorporated. The second objective was to quantitatively describe and better understand the role that the food service industry plays in the safety of food. The third objective was to illustrate the additional decision-making information that is available when uncertainty and variability are incorporated into the modelling of systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Development and evaluation of a species diagnostic polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment-length polymorphism procedure for cryptic members of the Culex sitiens (Diptera : Culicidae) subgroup in Australia and the southwest Pacific

Members of the Culex sitiens subgroup are important vectors of arboviruses, including Japanese encephalitis virus, Murray Valley encephalitis virus and Ross River virus. Of the eight described species, Cx. annulirostris Skuse, Cx. sitiens Wiedemann, and Cx. palpalis Taylor appear to be the most abundant and widespread throughout northern Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG). Recent investigations using allozymes have shown this subgroup to contain cryptic species that possess overlapping adult morphology. We report the development of a polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment-length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) procedure that reliably separates these three species. This procedure utilizes the sequence variation in the ribosomal DNA ITS1 and demonstrates species-specific PCR-RFLP profiles from both colony and field collected material. Assessment of the consistency of this procedure was undertaken on mosquitoes sampled from a wide geographic area including Australia, PNG, and the Solomon Islands. Overlapping adult morphology was observed for Cx. annulirostris and Cx. palpalis in both northern Queensland and PNG and for all three species at one site in northwest Queensland.

Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis japonica: comparison of control strategies in the People's Republic of China

We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-early mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling activated sludge flocculation using population balances

Activated sludge flocculation was modelled using population balances. The model followed the dynamics of activated sludge flocculation providing a good approximation of the change in mean floe size with time. Increasing the average velocity gradient decreased the final floe size. The breakage rate coefficient and collision efficiency also varied with the average velocity gradient. A power law relationship was found for the increase in breakage rate coefficient with increasing average velocity gradient. Further investigation will be conducted to determine the relationship between the collision efficiency and particle size to provide a better approximation of dynamic changes in the floe size distribution during flocculation. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Modelling the activated sludge flocculation process combining laser light diffraction particle sizing and population balance modelling (PBM)

A technique based on laser light diffraction is shown to be successful in collecting on-line experimental data. Time series of floc size distributions (FSD) under different shear rates (G) and calcium additions were collected. The steady state mass mean diameter decreased with increasing shear rate G and increased when calcium additions exceeded 8 mg/l. A so-called population balance model (PBM) was used to describe the experimental data, This kind of model describes both aggregation and breakage through birth and death terms. A discretised PBM was used since analytical solutions of the integro-partial differential equations are non-existing. Despite the complexity of the model, only 2 parameters need to be estimated: the aggregation rate and the breakage rate. The model seems, however, to lack flexibility. Also, the description of the floc size distribution (FSD) in time is not accurate.

Single-chain antibodies produced by phage display against the C-terminal 19 kDa region of merozoite surface protein-1of Plasinodium yoelii reduce parasite growth following challenge

Antibodies have the potential to be therapeutic reagents for malaria. Here we describe the production of a novel phage antibody display library against the C-terminal 19 kDa region of the Plasmodium yoelii YM merozoite surface protein-1 (MSP1(19)). In vivo studies against homologous lethal malaria challenge show an anti-parasite effect in a dose dependent manner, and analysis by plasmon resonance indicates binding to the antigen is comparable to the binding of a protective monoclonal antibody. The data support the lack of a need for any antibody Fc-related function and hold great significance for the development of a therapeutic reagent for malaria. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Antiserum raised against the Epstein-Barr virus BARF0 protein reacts to HLA-DR beta chain

The role that Epstein-Barr virus plays in nasopharyngeal carcinoma and Burkitt's lymphoma has been under intense study for many years. With only a limited set of viral genes being expressed in these tumours it has been difficult to understand how the virus could cause/aid in the generation of the tumours. In 1997 a paper was published by Fries et al. [Fries et al. (1997) Identification of a novel protein encoded by the BamHI A region of the Epstein-Barr virus. J Virol 71: 2765-2771.] in which a rabbit serum was generated and used to identify protein products (RK-BARF0) encoded from the BamH1 A region of EBV. In this paper we have isolated these proteins from two-dimensional gels and identified them, using mass spectrometry, as components of HLA DR.

An overview of APSIM, a model designed for farming systems simulation

The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a modular modelling framework that has been developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia. APSIM was developed to simulate biophysical process in farming systems, in particular where there is interest in the economic and ecological outcomes of management practice in the face of climatic risk. The paper outlines APSIM's structure and provides details of the concepts behind the different plant, soil and management modules. These modules include a diverse range of crops, pastures and trees, soil processes including water balance, N and P transformations, soil pH, erosion and a full range of management controls. Reports of APSIM testing in a diverse range of systems and environments are summarised. An example of model performance in a long-term cropping systems trial is provided. APSIM has been used in a broad range of applications, including support for on-farm decision making, farming systems design for production or resource management objectives, assessment of the value of seasonal climate forecasting, analysis of supply chain issues in agribusiness activities, development of waste management guidelines, risk assessment for government policy making and as a guide to research and education activity. An extensive citation list for these model testing and application studies is provided. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.