Design of a Recreational Fishing Survey and Mark-Recapture Study for the Blue Crab, Callinectes sapidus, in Chesapeake Bay

The development of bay wide estimates of recreational harvest has been identified as a high priority by the Chesapeake Bay Scientific Advisory Committee (CBSAC) and by the Chesapeake Bay Program as reflected in the Chesapeake Bay Blue Crab Fishery Management Plan (Chesapeake Bay Program 1996). In addition, the BiState Blue Crab Commission (BBCAC), formed in 1996 by mandate from the legislatures of Maryland and Virginia to advise on crab management, has also recognized the importance of estimating the levels and trends in catches in the recreational fishery. Recently, the BBCAC has adopted limit and target biological reference points. These analyses have been predicated on assumptions regarding the relative magnitude of the recreational and commercial catch. The reference points depend on determination of the total number of crabs removed from the population. In essence, the number removed by the various fishery sectors, represents a minimum estimate of the population size. If a major fishery sector is not represented, the total population will be accordingly underestimated. If the relative contribution of the unrepresented sector is constant over time and harvests the same components of the population as the other sectors, it may be argued that the population estimate derived from the other sectors is biased but still adequately represents trends in population size over time. If either of the two constraints mentioned above is not met, the validity of relative trends over time is suspect. With the recent increases in the human population in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, there is reason to be concerned that the recreational catch may not have been a constant proportion of the total harvest over time. It is important to assess the catch characteristics and the magnitude of the recreational fishery to evaluate this potential bias. (PDF contains 70 pages)

Metasomatism and magmatic assimilation at a gabbro-limestone contact, Christmas Mountains, Big Bend region, Texas

A composite stock of alkaline gabbro and syenite is intrusive into limestone of the Del Carmen, Sue Peake and Santa Elena Formations at the northwest end of the Christmas Mountains. There is abundant evidence of solution of wallrock by magma but nowhere are gabbro and limestone in direct contact. The sequence of lithologies developed across the intrusive contact and across xenoliths is gabbro, pyroxenite, calc-silicate skarn, marble. Pyroxenite is made up of euhedral crystals of titanaugite and sphene in a leucocratic matrix of nepheline, Wollastonite and alkali feldspar. The uneven modal distribution of phases in pyroxenite and the occurrence' of nepheline syenite dikes, intrusive into pyroxenite and skarn, suggest that pyroxenite represents an accumulation of clinopyroxene "cemented" together by late-solidifying residual magma of nepheline syenite composition. Assimilation of limestone by gabbroic magma involves reactions between calcite and magma and/or crystals in equilibrium with magma and crystallization of phases in which the magma is saturated, to supply energy for the solution reaction. Gabbroic magma was saturated with plagioclase and clinopyroxene at the time of emplacement. The textural and mineralogic features of pyroxenite can be produced by the reaction 2( 1-X) CALCITE + AN_XAB_l-X = (1-X) NEPHELINE+ 2(1-X) WOLLASTONITE+ X ANORTHITE+ 2(1-X) CO₂. Plagioclase in pyroxenite has corroded margins and is rimmed by nepheline, suggestive of resorption by magma. Anorthite and wollastonite enter solid solution in titanaugite. For each mole of calcite dissolved, approximately one mole of clinopyroxene was crystallized. Thus the amount of limestone that may be assimilated is limited by the concentration of potential clinopyroxene in the magma. Wollastonite appears as a phase when magma has been depleted in iron and magnesium by crystallization of titanaugite. The predominance of mafic and ultramafic compositions among contaminated rocks and their restriction to a narrow zone along the intrusive contact provides little evidence for the generation of a significant volume of desilicated magma as a result of limestone assimilation.

Within 60 m of the intrusive contact with the gabbro, nodular chert in the Santa Elena Limestone reacted with the enveloping marble to form spherical nodules of high-temperature calc-silicate minerals. The phases wollastonite, rankinite, spurrite, tilleyite and calcite, form a series of sharply-bounded, concentric monomineralic and two-phase shells which record a step-wise decrease in silica content from the core of a nodule to its rim. Mineral zones in the nodules vary 'with distance from the gabbro as follows:

0-5 m CALCITE + SPURRITE + RANKINITE + WOLLASTONITE
5-16 m CALCITE + TILLEYITE ± SPURRITE + RANKINITE + WOLLASTONITE
16-31 m CALCITE + TILLEYITE + WOLLASTONITE
31-60 m CALCITE + WOLLASTONITE
60-plus CALCITE + QUARTZ

The mineral of a one-phase zone is compatible with the phases bounding it on either side but these phases are incompatible in the same volume of P-T-X_CO2.

Growth of a monomineralio zone is initiated by reaction between minerals of adjacent one-phase zones which become unstable with rising temperature to form a thin layer of a new single phase that separates the reactants and is compatible with both of them. Because the mineral of the new zone is in equilibrium with the phases at both of its contacts, gradients in the chemical potentials of the exchangeable components are established across it. Although zone boundaries mark discontinuities in the gradients of bulk composition, two-phase equilibria at the contacts demonstrate that the chemical potentials are continuous. Hence, Ca, Si and CO₂ were redistributed in the growing nodule by diffusion. A monomineralic zone grows at the expense of an adjacent zone by reaction between diffusing components and the mineral of the adjacent zone. Equilibria between two phases at zone boundaries buffers the chemical potentials of the diffusing species. Thus, within a monomineralic zone, the chemical potentials of the diffusing components are controlled external to the local assemblage by the two-phase equilibria at the zone boundaries.

Mineralogically zoned calc-silicate skarn occurs as a narrow band that separates pyroxenite and marble along the intrusive contact and forms a rim on marble xenoliths in gabbro. Skarn consists of melilite or idocrase pseudomorphs of melili te, one or two . stoichiometric calcsilicate phases and accessory Ti-Zr garnet, perovskite and magnetite. The sequence of mineral zones from pyroxenite to marble, defined by a characteristic calc-silicate, is wollastonite, rankinite, spurrite, calcite. Mineral assemblages of adjacent skarn zones are compatible and the set of zones in a skarn band defines a facies type, indicating that the different mineral assemblages represent different bulk compositions recrystallized under identical conditions. The number of phases in each zone is less than the number that might be expected to result from metamorphism of a general bulk composition under conditions of equilibrium, trivariant in P, T and u_CO2. The "special" bulk composition of each zone is controlled by reaction between phases of the zones bounding it on either side. The continuity of the gradients of composition of melilite and garnet solid solutions across the skarn is consistent with the local equilibrium hypothesis and verifies that diffusion was the mechanism of mass transport. The formula proportions of Ti and Zr in garnet from skarn vary antithetically with that of Si Which systematically decreases from pyroxenite to marble. The chemical potential of Si in each skarn zone was controlled by the coexisting stoichiometric calc-silicate phases in the assemblage. Thus the formula proportion of Si in garnet is a direct measure of the chemical potential of Si from point to point in skarn. Reaction between gabbroic magma saturated with plagioclase and clinopyroxene produced nepheline pyroxenite and melilite-wollastonite skarn. The calcsilicate zones result from reaction between calcite and wollastonite to form spurrite and rankinite.

Environmental Concerns in Water Pricing Policy: an Application of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)

25 p.

Coherent enhancement of broadband frequency up-conversion in BBO crystal by shaping femtosecond laser pulses

An optimal feedback control of broadband frequency up-conversion in BBO crystal is experimentally demonstrated by shaping femto-second laser pulses based on genetic algorithm, and the frequency up-conversion efficiency can be enhanced by similar to 16%. SPIDER results show that the optimal laser pulses have shorter pulse-width with the little negative chirp than the original pulse with the little positive chirp. By modulating the fundamental spectral phase with periodic square distribution on SLM-256, the frequency up-conversion can be effectively controlled by the factor of about 17%. The experimental results indicate that the broadband frequency up-conversion efficiency is related to both of second harmonic generation (SHG) and sum frequency generation (SFG), where the former depends on the fundamental pulse intensity, and the latter depends on not only the fundamental pulse intensity but also the fundamental pulse spectral phase. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Price Premium for High-Efficiency Refrigerators and Calculation of Price-Elasticities for Close-Substitutes: Combining Hedonic Pricing and Demand Systems

21 p.

Incubadoras y aceleradores de crecimiento: modelo de apoyo a las start-up tecnológicas

[ES]Las políticas de apoyo al emprendimiento se han demostrado imprescindibles para el desarrollo económico de los países. En este contexto las conocidas incubadoras de empresas juegan un papel importante, pero los innovadores aceleradores de crecimiento que están logrando convertir pequeñas start-up en grandes compañías de base tecnológica se presentan como una apuesta para el futuro. La unión de ambos conceptos constituye un modelo eficaz de apoyo a las start-up tecnológicas. En el trabajo se presentan varios estudios que demuestran que mientras que, en las incubadoras los recursos más valorados son el ahorro de costes y el mentoring, los aceleradores obtienen muy buena calificación en todos sus ámbitos. Aun así la facilidad para obtener financiación y el mentoring también son los aspectos más valorados por los participantes en la aceleración. Además se han utilizado dos casos de éxito con el objeto de proponer un corolario de buenas prácticas que ayude entre otros, a la mejora de la situación de la Comunidad Autónoma del País Vasco (CAPV) en cuanto a emprendimiento se refiere.

Applying systematic design: the flight refuelling probe project

This report is a product of close industry-academia collaboration between British Aerospace and the Cambridge Engineering Design Centre (EDC). British Aerospace designs and integrates some of the most complex systems in the world, and its expertise in this field has enabled the company to become the United Kingdom's largest exporter. However, to stay at the forefront of the highly competitive aerospace industry it is necessary to seek new ways to work more effectively and more efficiently. The Cambridge EDC has played a part in supporting these needs by providing access to the methods and tools that it has developed for improving the process of designing mechanical systems. The EDC has gained an international reputation for the quality of its work in this subject. Thus, the collaboration is between two organisations each of whom are leaders in their respective fields. The central aim of the project has been to demonstrate how a systematic design process can be applied to a real design task identified by industry. The task selected was the design of a flight refuelling probe which would enable a combat aircraft to refuel from a "flying tanker". However, the systematic approach, methods and tools described in this report are applicable to most engineering design tasks. The findings presented in this report provide a sound basis for comparing the recommended systematic design process with industrial practice. The results of this comparison would enable the company to define ways in which its existing design process can be improved. This research project has a high degree of industrial relevance. The value of the work may be judged in terms of the opportunities it opens up for positive changes to the company's engineering operations. Several members of the EDC have contributed to the project. These include Dr Lucienne Blessing, Dr Stuart Burgess, Dr Amaresh Chakrabarti, Major Mark Nowack, Aylmer Johnson and Dr Paul Weaver. At British Aerospace special thanks must go to Alan Dean and David Halliday for their interest and the support they have given. The project has been managed by Dr Nigel Upton of British Aerospace during a 3 year secondment to the EDC.

Comparison of observed and predicted dates of eyeing, hatching and swim-up for brown trout and Atlantic salmon

Scholars recently derived simple models from published data for the prediction from water temperature of hatching times for the eggs of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). A similar model to predict eyeing time for salmon eggs was obtained and used in this study, largely by analogy, to develop equations which might be used to obtain very approximate estimates of eyeing and swim-up times for salmon and brown trout. As the models were based on data for constant temperatures and some of them also had a very inadequate data base, it was desirable that they should be tested, as far as possible, against field and hatchery observations. The present report is a brief summary based on such data as have been obtained to date. None of the data sets were ideal for the purpose and the various inadequacies are discussed later in this report.

Photoproduction of charged pion pairs from hydrogen at energies up to 1500 MeV

Charged pion pair photoproduction has been investigated up to a gamma energy of 1500 MeV, using the Caltech 12-inch heavy liquid bubble chamber with a small diameter, high intensity photon beam passing through a central beam tube gaseous hydrogen target surrounded by the sensitive Freon. Scanning, analysis, and data reduction techniques have been developed to deal with the problems of two-vie stereo, hidden event origins, absence of magnetic field, and the range-energy and multiple scattering relationships that occur in the heavy materials. Roughly 5700 pictures have been scanned and analyzed, yielding 754 acceptable events. Cross section and parameter distributions are generally consistent with the results of previous experiments. A statistically insignificant “bump” was observed in the dipion mass spectrum in the region of 500 MeV, the disputed σ meson mass. This region was investigated as carefully as the limited statistics would allow; dipion angular distributions are consistent with isotropy, and there is indication that some of the events in this region might come from decay of an intermediate N*₁₁ (1425) into a proton and dipion.

Photographic materials on pp. 18, 20, 22, and 24 are essential and will not reproduce clearly on Xerox copies. Photographic copies should be ordered.

Strong visible up-conversion emission in Tb3+, Tm3+ and Tb3+-Tm3+ co-doped tellurite glasses sensitized by Yb3+

Up-conversion luminescence characteristics under 975 nm excitation have been investigated with Tb3+/Tm3+/Yb3+ triply doped tellurite glasses. Here, green (547 nm: D-5(4) --> F-7(4)) and red (660 nm: D-5(4) --> F-7(2)) up-conversion (UC) luminescence originating from Tb3+ is observed strongly, because of the quadratic dependences of emission intensities on the excitation power. Especially, the UC luminescence was intensified violently with the energy transfer from the Tm3+ ions involves in the Tb3+ excitation. To the Tb3+/Tm3+/Yb3+ triply doped glass system, a novel up-conversion mechanism is proposed as follows: the energy of (3)G(4) level (Tm3+) was transferred to D-5(4) (Tb3+) and the 477-nm UC luminescence of Tm3+ was nearly quenched. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.