Governmental start-up support in the light of allocative market failure : justification, analysis, and design

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Wirtschaftswiss., Diss., 2011

Efficacy and Safety of Drug-Eluting Stents in the Real World: 8-Year Follow-Up

Background: Drug-eluting stents have been used in daily practice since 2002, with the clear advantages of reducing the risk of target vessel revascularization and an impressive reduction in restenosis rate by 50%-70%. However, the occurrence of a late thrombosis can compromise long-term results, particularly if the risks of this event were sustained. In this context, a registry of clinical cases gains special value. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of drug-eluting stents in the real world. Methods: We report on the clinical findings and 8-year follow-up parameters of all patients that underwent percutaneous coronary intervention with a drug-eluting stent from January 2002 to April 2007. Drug-eluting stents were used in accordance with the clinical and interventional cardiologist decision and availability of the stent. Results: A total of 611 patients were included, and clinical follow-up of up to 8 years was obtained for 96.2% of the patients. Total mortality was 8.7% and nonfatal infarctions occurred in 4.3% of the cases. Target vessel revascularization occurred in 12.4% of the cases, and target lesion revascularization occurred in 8% of the cases. The rate of stent thrombosis was 2.1%. There were no new episodes of stent thrombosis after the fifth year of follow-up. Comparative subanalysis showed no outcome differences between the different types of stents used, including Cypher®, Taxus®, and Endeavor®. Conclusion: These findings indicate that drug-eluting stents remain safe and effective at very long-term follow-up. Patients in the "real world" may benefit from drug-eluting stenting with excellent, long-term results.

Entwicklung von Maßnahmen zur Heißrissvermeidung beim Einseitenschweißen langer Schweißnähte : [Rissproblematik am Schweißnahtende beim UP-Tandem-Schweißen im Schiffbau]

Hot crack, shipbuilding, FEM, run out plate, heating, cross displacement, speed of cross displacements, one-side welding

Interactions of bottom-up and top-down processes in human evoked gamma-band activity

Gamma-band activity, EEG, top-down, bottom-up

Clinical Coronary In-Stent Restenosis Follow-Up after Treatment and Analyses of Clinical Outcomes

Background: Clinical in-stent restenosis (CISR) is the main limitation of coronary angioplasty with stent implantation. Objective: Describe the clinical and angiographic characteristics of CISR and the outcomes over a minimum follow-up of 12 months after its diagnosis and treatment. Methods: We analyzed in 110 consecutive patients with CISR the clinical presentation, angiographic characteristics, treatment and combined primary outcomes (cardiovascular death, nonfatal acute myocardial infarction [AMI]) and combined secondary (unstable angina with hospitalization, target vessel revascularization and target lesion revascularization) during a minimal follow-up of one year. Results: Mean age was 61 ± 11 years (68.2% males). Clinical presentations included acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in 62.7% and proliferative ISR in 34.5%. CISR was treated with implantation of drug-eluting stents (DES) in 36.4%, Bare Metal Stent (BMS) in 23.6%, myocardial revascularization surgery in 18.2%, balloon angioplasty in 15.5% and clinical treatment in 6.4%. During a median follow-up of 19.7 months, the primary outcome occurred in 18 patients, including 6 (5.5%) deaths and 13 (11.8%) AMI events. Twenty-four patients presented a secondary outcome. Predictors of the primary outcome were CISR with DES (HR = 4.36 [1.44–12.85]; p = 0.009) and clinical treatment for CISR (HR = 10.66 [2.53–44.87]; p = 0.001). Treatment of CISR with BMS (HR = 4.08 [1.75–9.48]; p = 0.001) and clinical therapy (HR = 6.29 [1.35–29.38]; p = 0.019) emerged as predictors of a secondary outcome. Conclusion: Patients with CISR present in most cases with ACS and with a high frequency of adverse events during a medium-term follow-up.

Assessment of Autonomic Function by Phase Rectification of RRInterval Histogram Analysis in Chagas Disease

Background:In chronic Chagas disease (ChD), impairment of cardiac autonomic function bears prognostic implications. Phase‑rectification of RR-interval series isolates the sympathetic, acceleration phase (AC) and parasympathetic, deceleration phase (DC) influences on cardiac autonomic modulation.Objective:This study investigated heart rate variability (HRV) as a function of RR-interval to assess autonomic function in healthy and ChD subjects.Methods:Control (n = 20) and ChD (n = 20) groups were studied. All underwent 60-min head-up tilt table test under ECG recording. Histogram of RR-interval series was calculated, with 100 ms class, ranging from 600–1100 ms. In each class, mean RR-intervals (MNN) and root-mean-squared difference (RMSNN) of consecutive normal RR-intervals that suited a particular class were calculated. Average of all RMSNN values in each class was analyzed as function of MNN, in the whole series (RMSNNT), and in AC (RMSNNAC) and DC (RMSNNDC) phases. Slopes of linear regression lines were compared between groups using Student t-test. Correlation coefficients were tested before comparisons. RMSNN was log-transformed. (α < 0.05).Results:Correlation coefficient was significant in all regressions (p < 0.05). In the control group, RMSNNT, RMSNNAC, and RMSNNDCsignificantly increased linearly with MNN (p < 0.05). In ChD, only RMSNNAC showed significant increase as a function of MNN, whereas RMSNNT and RMSNNDC did not.Conclusion:HRV increases in proportion with the RR-interval in healthy subjects. This behavior is lost in ChD, particularly in the DC phase, indicating cardiac vagal incompetence.

Seromukotympanon im pädaudiologischen Follow-Up des Neugeborenen-Hörscreening in Sachsen-Anhalt

Magdeburg, Univ., Med. Fak., Diss., 2012

Biologia da Arsenura xanthopus (Walker, 1855) ( Lepidoptera - Adelocephalidae ), praga do «Açoita-Cavalo» (Luehea spp.) e notas sôbre seus inimigos naturais

Biology of Arsenura xanthopus (Walker, 1855) (Lep., Adelocephalidae), a pest of Luehea spp. (Tiliaceae), and notes on its natural enemies. In the beginning of 1950, one of the Authors made some observations about the biology of Arsenura xanthopus (Walker), in Piracicaba, State of S. Paulo, Brazil. From 1951 to 1953, both Authors continued the observations on such an important Adelocephalidae, the caterpillars of which represent a serious pest of Luehea spp. leaves. Actually, in some occasions, the caterpillars can destroy completely the leaves of the trees. The species is efficientely controlled by two natural enemies: an egg parasite (Tetrastichus sp., Hym., Eulophidae) and a fly attacking the last instar caterpillar (Winthemia tricolor (van der Wulp), Dip., Tachinidae). Tetrastichus sp. can destroy 100% of the eggs and the fly, 70 to 100% of the caterpillars. Indeed, facts as such are very interesting because we rarely know of a case of so complete a control of a pest by an insect. A. xanthopus had not yet been mentioned in our literature. Actually neither the systematic bibliography nor the economic one has treated of this species. However, a few other species of Arsenura are already known as living on Luehea spp. According to the Authors' observations, W. tricolor was also unknown by the Brazilian entomological literature. Arsenura xanthopus (Walker, 1855) After giving the sinonimy and a few historical data concerning the species, and its geographical distribution, the Authors discuss its placing in the genus Arsenura Duncan or Rhescyntis Huebner, finishing by considering Arsenura xanthopus as a valid name. The Authors put the species in the family Adelocephalidae, as it has been made by several entomologists. The host plant The species of Tiliaceae plants belonging to the genus Luehea are called "açoita-cavalo" and are well known for the usefulness of their largely utilized wood. The genus comprises exclusively American plants, including about 25 species distributed throughout the Latin America. Luehea divaricata Mart, is the best known species and the most commonly cultivated. Biology of Arsenura xanthopus Our observations show that the species passes by 6 larval stages. Eggs and egg-postures, all the 6 instars of the caterpillars as well as the chrysalid are described. The pupal period is the longest of the cycle, taking from 146 to 256 days. Data on the eclosion and habits of the caterpillars are also presented. A redescription of the adult is also given. Our specimens agreed with BOUVIER's description, except in the dimension between the extremities of the extended wings, which is a little shorter (107 mm according to BOUVlErVs paper against from 80 to 100mm in our individuals). Winthemia tricolor (van der Wulp, 1890) Historical data, geographical distribution and host are first related. W. tricolor had as yet a single known host-; Ar^-senura armida (Cramer). This chapter also contains some observations on the biolcn gy of the fly and on its behaviour when trying to lay eggs on the caterpillars' skin. The female of W. tricolor lays from 1 to 33 eggs on the skin of the last instar caterpillar. The mam region of the body where the eggs are laid are the membranous legs. Eggs are also very numerous oh the ventral surface of the thorax and abdomen. The. preference for such regions is easily cleared up considering the position assumed by the caterpillar when fixed motionless in a branch. In such an occasion, the fly approaches, the victim, puts the ovipositor out and lays the eggs on different parts of the body, mainly on the mentioned regions, which are much more easily reached. The eggs of the fly are firmly attached to the host's skin, being almost impossible to detach them, without having them broken. The minute larvae of the fly enter the body of, the host when it transforms into chrysalid. Chrysalids recentely formed and collected in nature f requentely show a few small larvae walking on its skin and looking for an adequate place to get into the body. A few larvae die by remaining in the skin of the caterpillar which is pushed away to some distance by the active movements of the chrysalid recentely formed. From 1 to 10 larvae completely grown may emerge from the attacked chrysalid about 8 days after their penetrating into the caterpillars' body and soon begin to look for an adequate substratum where they can transform themselves into pupae. In natural conditions, the metamorphosis occurs in the soil. The flies appear within 15 days. Tetrastichus sp. This microhymenoptera is economically the most interesting parasite, being commonly able to destroy the whole pos^ ture of the moth. Indeed, some days after the beginning of the infestation of the trees, it is almost impossible to obtain postures completely free of parasites. The active wasp introduces the ovipositor into the egg of the moth, laying its egg inside, from 80 to 120 seconds after having introduced it. A single adult wasp emerges from each egg. Sarcophaga lambens Wiedemann, 1830 During the observations carried out, the Authors obtained 10 flies from a chysalid that were recognized as belonging to the species above. S. lambens is a widely distributed Sarcophagidae, having a long list of hosts. It is commonly obtained from weak or died invertebrates, having no importance as one of their natural enemies. Sinonimy, list of hosts and distribution are presented in this paper. Control of Arsenura xanthopus A test has been carefully made in the laboratory just to find out the best insecticide for controlling A. xanthopus caterpillars. Four different products were experimented (DDT, Pa-rathion, BHC and Fenatox), the best results having been obtained with DDT at 0,25%. However, the Authors believe in spite of the initial damages of the trees, that the application of an insecticide may be harmful by destroying the natural agents of control. A biological desiquilibrium may in this way take place. The introduction of the parasites studied (Tetrastichus sp. and Winthemia tricolor) seems to be the most desirable measure to fight A. xanthopus.

Estudo comparativo entre métodos de contrôle quantitativo da produção leiteira

This paper deals with the estimation of milk production by means of weekly, biweekly, bimonthly observations and also by method known as 6-5-8, where one observation is taken at the 6th week of lactation, another at 5th month and a third one at the 8th month. The data studied were obtained from 72 lactations of the Holstein Friesian breed of the "Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz" (Piracicaba), S. Paulo, Brazil), being 6 calvings on each month of year and also 12 first calvings, 12 second calvings, and so on, up to the sixth. The authors criticize the use of "maximum error" to be found in papers dealing with this subject, and also the use of mean deviation. The former is completely supersed and unadvisable and latter, although equivalent, to a certain extent, to the usual standard deviation, has only 87,6% of its efficiency, according to KENDALL (9, pp. 130-131, 10, pp. 6-7). The data obtained were compared with the actual production, obtained by daily control and the deviations observed were studied. Their means and standard deviations are given on the table IV. Inspite of BOX's recent results (11) showing that with equal numbers in all classes a certain inequality of varinces is not important, the autors separated the methods, before carrying out the analysis of variance, thus avoiding to put together methods with too different standard deviations. We compared the three first methods, to begin with (Table VI). Then we carried out the analysis with the four first methods. (Table VII). Finally we compared the two last methods. (Table VIII). These analysis of variance compare the arithmetic means of the deviations by the methods studied, and this is equivalent to compare their biases. So we conclude tht season of calving and order of calving do not effect the biases, and the methods themselves do not differ from this view point, with the exception of method 6-5-8. Another method of attack, maybe preferrable, would be to compare the estimates of the biases with their expected mean under the null hypothesis (zero) by the t-test. We have: 1) Weekley control: t = x - 0/c(x) = 8,59 - 0/ = 1,56 2) Biweekly control: t = 11,20 - 0/6,21= 1,80 3) Monthly control: t = 7,17 - 0/9,48 = 0,76 4) Bimonthly control: t = - 4,66 - 0/17,56 = -0,26 5) Method 6-5-8 t = 144,89 - 0/22,41 = 6,46*** We denote above by three asterisks, significance the 0,1% level of probability. In this way we should conclude that the weekly, biweekly, monthly and bimonthly methods of control may be assumed to be unbiased. The 6-5-8 method is proved to be positively biased, and here the bias equals 5,9% of the mean milk production. The precision of the methods studied may be judged by their standard deviations, or by intervals covering, with a certain probability (95% for example), the deviation x corresponding to an estimate obtained by cne of the methods studied. Since the difference x - x, where x is the mean of the 72 deviations obtained for each method, has a t distribution with mean zero and estimate of standard deviation. s(x - x) = √1+ 1/72 . s = 1.007. s , and the limit of t for the 5% probability, level with 71 degrees of freedom is 1.99, then the interval to be considered is given by x ± 1.99 x 1.007 s = x ± 2.00. s The intervals thus calculated are given on the table IX.

A absorção de nitrogênio, fósforo, potássio, cálcio, magnésio, enxôfre e silício pela cana de açúcar, Co 419, e o seu crescimento em função da idade

This paper describes the data obtained for the growth of sugar cane, Variety Co 419, and the amount and rate of absorption of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium, sulfur, and silicon, according to the age of the plant, in the soil and climate conditions of the state of S. Paulo, Brazil. An experiment was installed in the Estação Experimental de Cana de Açúcar "Dr. José Vizioli", at Piracicaba, state of S. Paulo, Brazil, and the soil "tèrra-roxa misturada" presented the following composition: Sand (more than 0,2 mm)........................................................................ 8.40 % Fine sand (from 0,2 to less than 0,02 mm)................................................. 24.90 % Silt (from 0,02 to less than 0,002 mm)...................................................... 16.40 % Clay (form 0,002 mm and less)................................................................ 50.20 % pH 10 g of soil and 25 ml of distilled water)..................................................... 5.20 %C (g of carbon per 100 g of soil)................................................................. 1.00 %N (g of nitrogen per 100 g of soil)............................................................... 0.15 P0(4)-³ (me. per 100 g of soil, soluble in 0,05 normal H2SO4) ............................... 0.06 K+ (exchangeable, me. per 100 g of soil)....... 0.18 Ca+² (exchangeable, me. per 100 g of soil)...... 2.00 Mg+² (exchangeable, me. per 100 g of soil)...... 0.66 The monthly rainfall and mean temperature from January 1956 to August 1957 are presented in Table 1, in Portuguese. The experiment consisted of 3 replications of the treatments: without fertilizer and with fertilizer (40 Kg of N, from ammonium sulfate; 100 Kg of P(2)0(5) from superphosphate and 40 Kg K2 O, from potassium chloride). Four complete stools (stalks and leaves) were harvested from each treatment, and the plants separated in stalks and leaves, weighed, dried and analysed every month from 6 up to 15 months of age. The data obtained for fresh and dry matter production are presented in table 2, and in figure land 2, in Portuguese. The curves for fresh and dry matter production showed that fertilized and no fertilized sugar cane with 6 months of age presents only 5% of its total weight at 15 months of age. The most intense period of growth in this experiment is located, between 8 and 12 months of age, that is between December 1956 and April 1957. The dry matter production of sugar cane with 8 and 12 months of age was, respectively, 12,5% and 87,5% of the total weight at 15 months of age. The growth of sugar cane in relation to its age follows a sigmoid curve, according to the figures 1, 2 and 3. The increase of dry matter production promoted by using fertilizer was 62,5% when sugar cane was 15 months of age. The concentration of the elements (tables 4 and 5 in Portuguese) present a general trend of decreasing as the cane grows older. In the stalks this is true for all elements studied in this experiment. But in the leaves, somme elements, like sulfur and silicon, appears to increase with the increasing of age. Others, like calcium and magnesium do not show large variations, and finally a third group, formed by nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium seems to decrease at the beginning and later presents a light increasing. The concentration of the elements was higher in the leaves than in the stalks from 6 up to 15 months of age. There were some exceptions. Potassium, magnesium and sulfur were higher in the stalks than in the leaves from 6 up to 8 or 9 months of age. After 9 months, the leaves presented more potassium, magnesium and sulfur than the stalks. The percentage of nitrogen in the leaves was lower in the plants that received fertilizer than in the plants without fertilizer with 6, 7, 8, 10, 11 and 13 months of age. This can be explained by "dilution effect". The uptake of elements by 4 stools (stalks and leaves) of sugar cane according to the plant age is showed in table 6, in Portuguese. The absorption of all studied elements, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium, sulfur and silicon, was higher in plants that received fertilizer. The trend of uptake of nitrogen and potassium is similar to the trend of production of dry matter, that is, the maximum absorption of those two nutrients occurs between 9 and 13 months of age. Finaly, the maxima amounts of elements absorbed by 4 stools (stalks and leaves) of sugar cane plants that received fertilizer are condensed in the following table: Element Maximum absorption in grams Age of the plants in months Nitrogen (N) 81.0 14 Phosphorus (P) 6.8 15 Potassium (K) 81.5 15 Calcium (Ca) 19.2 15 Magnesium (Mg) 13.9 13 Sulfur (S) 9.3 15 Silicon (Si) 61.8 15 It is very interesting to note the low absorption of phosphorus even with 100 kg of P2O5 per hectare, aplied as superphosphate. The uptake of phosphorus was lower than calcium, magnesium and sulfur. Also, it is noteworthy the large amount of silicon absorbed by sugar cane.

Fast and furious: a look at the death of animals on the highway MS-080, Southwestern Brazil

Several factors, such as hunting and the pet trade, are responsible for the worldwide decline of wildlife populations. In addition, fatal collisions with vehicles on highways have also taken one of the largest tolls. This study aimed to quantify the richness and abundance of vertebrate roadkill along highway MS-080 in Mato Grosso do Sul, Central-West Brazil. We compare the amount of roadkill to the distance between cities, moon phases and the flow of vehicles on the highway. Samples were collected weekly between March and September 2011, totaling 257 individuals, belonging to 32 families and 52 species, resulting in an index of 0.13 individuals hit/km. Birds were the most frequently hit taxa, followed by mammals. The most affected species was Cariama cristata (Cariamidae), followed by Cerdocyon thous (Canidae). The sections of highway closest to cities had the highest number of individual animals killed. Our observations indicate that the density of the vegetation next to the highway positively influences the amount of roadkill.

A vegetação no município de Ilhéus Estado da Bahia: IV - Caracaterísticas analíticas e periodicidade sociológica

It is well-known that diverse groups of vegetation with an analogous but not identical floristic composition show an ecological similarity which leads to a determined type of vegetation. Starting from this fact it becomes evident that the scope of phytosociological work is the establishing of the significance of the species within the association and the discovery of the rules which govern associations. The floristic surveys made in the field have to be analysed statistically so as to obtain satisfactory results. The usefulness of this method depends largely on the possibilities of comparing the results with previous studies of the same kind, in the same country, or elsewhere. The method used in this paper is that of measuring circumferences and counting individuals in the different associations studied because it permits the presentation of the results in tables which show the phytosociological complexity of the Brazilian rain-forests. The classical method of characteristics is valuable because the more evolved an association is the less sociable are the species it contains, so that such groups do not show clear differences between species but rather between sinusia or strata of individuals. Five tables are presented in which several of the qualitative and quantitative characteristics are studied with a view to discussing their value in relation to groups and species. They are: I - Abundance (number of individuals). II - Density (distance in meters between the individuals belonging to each stratum). III - Basal coverture (circles measured in square meters of the mean projection of the individuals on the surface). IV - Basal area (mean circle in square meters occupied by individuals on the surface). V - Frequency, abundance and sociability in relation to occurrence. TABLE I. This table indicates first the number of individuals in relation to the sinusia studied: next, the sum total of the individuals belanging to the strata are given for each association, thus providing the numeric value of the sinusia: finally, the relation between the total number of individuals in the association and the total for the sinusium thus fursnishing the abundance per sinusium, in the classic sence, that is the percentage, or rather the relative number, of the elements which compose the group. CONCLUSIONS. The general character of abundance of the regional vegetation of Ilheos may be summed up in the following way: as an association evolves towards permanent equilibirum the number of individuals the inferior strata diminishes in relation to those of the superior strata which increase. For the shrub sinusium, two important facts were observed: a) in a given association the number of elements of the inferior strata diminishes as the diameter of the individuals increases; b) the percentage of individuals belonging to the shrub sinusium in the sere diminishes as the association evolve. In the subarboreal sinusium it is seen that: in the sere the number of subarboreal individuals does not vary much; whereas in the climax or the prisere there is a fall owing to the equilibrum of the biologic forms. In the arboreal sinusium the following conclusion can be deduced from analogous facts: the number of individuals of the lower strata diminishes as circumference increases. Also, in the sere there is a progressive sequence for the individuals belonging to the superior strata. TABLE II. The relation between the mean distances of individuals belonging to the same stratum and the area of an association is equal to the density. The table shows that the mean density of the association and the distance between the individuals belonging to the strata of the same sinusium in relation to the total number of individuals belonging to the association. CONCLUSIONS. As rule, the density of individuals in the associations studied follows a very general character or at least a regional one: the distance between the individuals in the diverse strata varies according to their abundance and sociability. Two other facts of some sociological importance are: a) in identical strata of the same sere the density of individuals oscillates in an analogous manner in teh subclimaces and varies in the stages which have reached equilibrium. b) the density of individuals varias in accordance with the sinusium and the distances between individuals of the same sinusium varg in accordance with the strata. TABLE III. This table presents the mean basal individual coverture, that is the mean projection of the frond of the various individuals belonging to the same stratum. The means were obtained by measurement in the field, of 100 individuals belonging to each stratum and their projection on the surface. In the latoratory these measurements were converted into mean circles (in square meters) and the result was multiplied by the individuals belonging to the strata corresponding to the sinusium of each association. The result obtained is named basal coverture. CONCLUSIONS. As a rule, the basal coverture of the vegetation of the county of Ilhéus indicates that: in the evolution of the vegetation the basal coverture of the arbustive sinusium diminishes progressively whereas that of the arboreal one increases. The special norms obtained are: 1) in the shrub sinusium the basal coverture seems to follow a uniform norm, that is, in stages of evolution of the subclimax the basal coverture oscillates with a certain uniformity. 2) in the subarboreal sinusium this fact is related to the vitality and age of the species, as in the subclimax the number of young trees is large and the vitality of the species very variable. This permits the conclusion that: in the sere the basal coverture increases with the evolution of the vegetation and diminishes when an equilibrium is reached. 3) in the tree sinusium the climax association of the prisere and subsere seem to obey a binomial rule, as the coverture (density-abundance) increases until a determined stratum is reached and...

The Determinants of Entry are not Independent of Start-up Size: Some evidence from Spanish manufacturing

In this paper we explore the determinants of firm start-up size of Spanish manufacturing industries. The industries' barriers to entry affect the ability of potential entrants to enter the markets and the size range at which they decide to enter. In order to examine the relationships between barriers to entry and size we applied the quantile regression techniques. Our results indicate that the variables that characterize the structure of the market, the variables that are related to the behaviour of the incumbent firms and the rate of growth of the industries generate different barriers depending on the initial size of the entrants. Keywords: Entry, regression quantiles, start-up size. JEL classification: L110, L600

Sensitivity of simulation results to competing SAM updates

Recently there has been a renewed research interest in the properties of non survey updates of input-output tables and social accounting matrices (SAM). Along with the venerable and well known scaling RAS method, several alternative new procedures related to entropy minimization and other metrics have been suggested, tested and used in the literature. Whether these procedures will eventually substitute or merely complement the RAS approach is still an open question without a definite answer. The performance of many of the updating procedures has been tested using some kind of proximity or closeness measure to a reference input-output table or SAM. The first goal of this paper, in contrast, is the proposal of checking the operational performance of updating mechanisms by way of comparing the simulation results that ensue from adopting alternative databases for calibration of a reference applied general equilibrium model. The second goal is to introduce a new updatin! g procedure based on information retrieval principles. This new procedure is then compared as far as performance is concerned to two well-known updating approaches: RAS and cross-entropy. The rationale for the suggested cross validation is that the driving force for having more up to date databases is to be able to conduct more current, and hopefully more credible, policy analyses.