897 resultados para Logistic risks


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The occurrence frequency of failure events serve as critical indexes representing the safety status of dam-reservoir systems. Although overtopping is the most common failure mode with significant consequences, this type of event, in most cases, has a small probability. Estimation of such rare event risks for dam-reservoir systems with crude Monte Carlo (CMC) simulation techniques requires a prohibitively large number of trials, where significant computational resources are required to reach the satisfied estimation results. Otherwise, estimation of the disturbances would not be accurate enough. In order to reduce the computation expenses and improve the risk estimation efficiency, an importance sampling (IS) based simulation approach is proposed in this dissertation to address the overtopping risks of dam-reservoir systems. Deliverables of this study mainly include the following five aspects: 1) the reservoir inflow hydrograph model; 2) the dam-reservoir system operation model; 3) the CMC simulation framework; 4) the IS-based Monte Carlo (ISMC) simulation framework; and 5) the overtopping risk estimation comparison of both CMC and ISMC simulation. In a broader sense, this study meets the following three expectations: 1) to address the natural stochastic characteristics of the dam-reservoir system, such as the reservoir inflow rate; 2) to build up the fundamental CMC and ISMC simulation frameworks of the dam-reservoir system in order to estimate the overtopping risks; and 3) to compare the simulation results and the computational performance in order to demonstrate the ISMC simulation advantages. The estimation results of overtopping probability could be used to guide the future dam safety investigations and studies, and to supplement the conventional analyses in decision making on the dam-reservoir system improvements. At the same time, the proposed methodology of ISMC simulation is reasonably robust and proved to improve the overtopping risk estimation. The more accurate estimation, the smaller variance, and the reduced CPU time, expand the application of Monte Carlo (MC) technique on evaluating rare event risks for infrastructures.

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En este trabajo se propone un nuevo sistema híbrido para el análisis de sentimientos en clase múltiple basado en el uso del diccionario General Inquirer (GI) y un enfoque jerárquico del clasificador Logistic Model Tree (LMT). Este nuevo sistema se compone de tres capas, la capa bipolar (BL) que consta de un LMT (LMT-1) para la clasificación de la polaridad de sentimientos, mientras que la segunda capa es la capa de la Intensidad (IL) y comprende dos LMTs (LMT-2 y LMT3) para detectar por separado tres intensidades de sentimientos positivos y tres intensidades de sentimientos negativos. Sólo en la fase de construcción, la capa de Agrupación (GL) se utiliza para agrupar las instancias positivas y negativas mediante el empleo de 2 k-means, respectivamente. En la fase de Pre-procesamiento, los textos son segmentados por palabras que son etiquetadas, reducidas a sus raíces y sometidas finalmente al diccionario GI con el objetivo de contar y etiquetar sólo los verbos, los sustantivos, los adjetivos y los adverbios con 24 marcadores que se utilizan luego para calcular los vectores de características. En la fase de Clasificación de Sentimientos, los vectores de características se introducen primero al LMT-1, a continuación, se agrupan en GL según la etiqueta de clase, después se etiquetan estos grupos de forma manual, y finalmente las instancias positivas son introducidas a LMT-2 y las instancias negativas a LMT-3. Los tres árboles están entrenados y evaluados usando las bases de datos Movie Review y SenTube con validación cruzada estratificada de 10-pliegues. LMT-1 produce un árbol de 48 hojas y 95 de tamaño, con 90,88% de exactitud, mientras que tanto LMT-2 y LMT-3 proporcionan dos árboles de una hoja y uno de tamaño, con 99,28% y 99,37% de exactitud,respectivamente. Los experimentos muestran que la metodología de clasificación jerárquica propuesta da un mejor rendimiento en comparación con otros enfoques prevalecientes.

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Background: The principal mode of HIV transmission in Southern Africa is through sexual intercourse, and this has prompted uptake of safe male circumcision. Engaging in risky sexual behaviour by circumcised men increases the risks of acquiring HIV, though male circumcision coupled with preventive behaviour reduces this risk. Objective: To compare the factors associated with risky sexual behaviour among circumcised and uncircumcised men in Botswana. Methods: Nationally representative data from the Botswana AIDS Impact Survey III were used. A sample of 313 sexually active men was used. The data was analysed by cross-tabulation and logistic regression. Results: The study revealed that uncircumcised men (odds ratio, 5.711) were more likely to have sex while intoxicated with alcohol compared to circumcised men. Low levels of education (odds ratio, 8.736), urban residency (city/town: odds ratio, 1.238 and urban village: odds ratio, 1.098) were more likely to influence risky behaviour (more than one sexual partner) for circumcised men. The results also show that marital status (never married) (odds ratio, 1.947) influences risky behaviour (having sex while intoxicated with alcohol) among uncircumcised men. Conclusion: Low level of education, place of residence and alcohol consumption influences risky sexual behaviour for both circumcised and uncircumcised men. Policies and programmes should thus focus on the attitudes underlying sexual behaviour.

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Contexte: La douleur chronique non cancéreuse (DCNC) génère des retombées économiques et sociétales importantes. L’identification des patients à risque élevé d’être de grands utilisateurs de soins de santé pourrait être d’une grande utilité; en améliorant leur prise en charge, il serait éventuellement possible de réduire leurs coûts de soins de santé. Objectif: Identifier les facteurs prédictifs bio-psycho-sociaux des grands utilisateurs de soins de santé chez les patients souffrant de DCNC et suivis en soins de première ligne. Méthodologie: Des patients souffrant d’une DCNC modérée à sévère depuis au moins six mois et bénéficiant une ordonnance valide d’un analgésique par un médecin de famille ont été recrutés dans des pharmacies communautaires du territoire du Réseau universitaire intégré de santé (RUIS), de l’Université de Montréal entre Mai 2009 et Janvier 2010. Ce dernier est composé des six régions suivantes : Mauricie et centre du Québec, Laval, Montréal, Laurentides, Lanaudière et Montérégie. Les caractéristiques bio-psycho-sociales des participants ont été documentées à l’aide d’un questionnaire écrit et d’une entrevue téléphonique au moment du recrutement. Les coûts directs de santé ont été estimés à partir des soins et des services de santé reçus au cours de l’année précédant et suivant le recrutement et identifiés à partir de la base de données de la Régie d’Assurance maladie du Québec, RAMQ (assureur publique de la province du Québec). Ces coûts incluaient ceux des hospitalisations reliées à la douleur, des visites à l’urgence, des soins ambulatoires et de la médication prescrite pour le traitement de la douleur et la gestion des effets secondaires des analgésiques. Les grands utilisateurs des soins de santé ont été définis comme étant ceux faisant partie du quartile le plus élevé de coûts directs annuels en soins de santé dans l’année suivant le recrutement. Des modèles de régression logistique multivariés et le critère d’information d’Akaike ont permis d’identifier les facteurs prédictifs des coûts directs élevés en soins de santé. Résultats: Le coût direct annuel médian en soins de santé chez les grands utilisateurs de soins de santé (63 patients) était de 7 627 CAD et de 1 554 CAD pour les utilisateurs réguliers (188 patients). Le modèle prédictif final du risque d’être un grand utilisateur de soins de santé incluait la douleur localisée au niveau des membres inférieurs (OR = 3,03; 95% CI: 1,20 - 7,65), la réduction de la capacité fonctionnelle liée à la douleur (OR = 1,24; 95% CI: 1,03 - 1,48) et les coûts directs en soins de santé dans l’année précédente (OR = 17,67; 95% CI: 7,90 - 39,48). Les variables «sexe», «comorbidité», «dépression» et «attitude envers la guérison médicale» étaient également retenues dans le modèle prédictif final. Conclusion: Les patients souffrant d’une DCNC au niveau des membres inférieurs et présentant une détérioration de la capacité fonctionnelle liée à la douleur comptent parmi ceux les plus susceptibles d’être de grands utilisateurs de soins et de services. Le coût direct en soins de santé dans l’année précédente était également un facteur prédictif important. Améliorer la prise en charge chez cette catégorie de patients pourrait influencer favorablement leur état de santé et par conséquent les coûts assumés par le système de santé.

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Entrepreneurs are individuals who can transform economic and social realities by promoting development, so it became important tools in generating externalities in regions where they operate. In Brazil, 59.9% of new ventures do not reach the fourth year of life, the mortality rate of new ventures is high. The causes of mortality are numerous, and within the behavioral aspects, one is the locus of control. This study determines the degree of association between internal locus of control and achieving business success of entrepreneurs in Rio Grande do Norte who participated in the workshop EMPRETEC. The approach that studies the behavior entrepreneurs agreed that there are psychological characteristics associated with a set of values, attitudes and needs that determine the behavior and induce the entrepreneur to achieve success. Among these features is the locus of control, a skill that individuals must identify in their actions, or lack of them, the causes of their successes and failures. The locus is external when the individual attributes to factors outside themselves as causes of their results, and is built in when you can identify the actions that led to success. We surveyed 223 entrepreneurs statewide who answered the questionnaire for assessing the scale of locus of control, selfassessment questionnaire of entrepreneurial characteristics of EMPRETEC and a questionnaire assessing the business success. 71.9% were identified as having success. Among the behavioral characteristics strongest in the group of entrepreneurs are setting goals and commitment. Was found for locus of control mean value of 7.35, confidence interval between 7.05 and 7.66. Showing that the locus of control group is predominantly internal. We also found a correlation between the locus and commitment, between setting goals and commitment; calculated risks and information search; search of information and commitment, and between commitment and independence and self confidence. Dependence was not identified among the set of features and business success, determining the absence of an ideal profile. However, logistic regression significant association was found indicating that the smaller the individual's locus of control increased the likelihood of it achieving business success

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Pesticide residues in food and environment pose serious health risks to human beings. Plant protection laws, among other things, regulate misuse of agricultural pesticides. Compliance with such laws consequently reduces risks of pesticide residues in food and the environment. Studies were conducted to assess the compliance with plant protection laws among tomato farmers in Mvomero District, Morogoro Region, Tanzania. Compliance was assessed by examining pesticide use practices that are regulated by the Tanzanian Plant Protection Act (PPA) of 1997. A total of 91 tomato farmers were interviewed using a structured questionnaire. Purposive sampling was used in selecting at least 30 respondent farmers from each of the three villages of Msufini, Mlali and Doma in Mvomero District, Morogoro Region. Simple Random Sampling was used to obtain respondents from the sampling frame. Individual and social factors were examined on how they could affect pesticide use practices regulated by the law. Descriptive statistics, mainly frequency, were used to analyze the data while associations between variables were determined using Chi-Square and logistic regression model. The results showed that respondents were generally aware of the existence of laws on agriculture, environment and consumer health, although none of them could name a specific Act. The results revealed further that 94.5% of the farmers read instructions on the pesticides label. However, only 21% used the correct doses of pesticides, 40.7% stored pesticides in special stores, 68.1% used protective gear, while 94.5% always read instructions on the label before using a pesticide product. Training influenced the application rate of pesticide (p < 0.001) while awareness of agricultural laws significantly influenced farmers’ tendency to read information on the labels (p < 0.001). The results showed further that education significantly influenced the use of protective gears by farmers (p = 0.042). Education also significantly affected the manner in which farmers stored pesticide-applying equipment (p = 0.024). Furthermore, farmers’ awareness of environmental laws significantly (p = 0.03) affected farmers’ disposal of empty pesticide containers. Results of this study suggest the need for express provisions on safe use and handling of pesticides and related offences in the Act, and that compliance should be achieved through education rather than coercion. Results also suggest establishment of pesticide disposal mechanisms and structures to reduce unsafe disposal of pesticide containers. It is recommended that farmers should be educated and trained on proper use of pesticides. Farmers’ awareness on laws affecting food, environment and agriculture should be improved.

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Part 17: Risk Analysis

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Part 17: Risk Analysis

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Assessing the fit of a model is an important final step in any statistical analysis, but this is not straightforward when complex discrete response models are used. Cross validation and posterior predictions have been suggested as methods to aid model criticism. In this paper a comparison is made between four methods of model predictive assessment in the context of a three level logistic regression model for clinical mastitis in dairy cattle; cross validation, a prediction using the full posterior predictive distribution and two “mixed” predictive methods that incorporate higher level random effects simulated from the underlying model distribution. Cross validation is considered a gold standard method but is computationally intensive and thus a comparison is made between posterior predictive assessments and cross validation. The analyses revealed that mixed prediction methods produced results close to cross validation whilst the full posterior predictive assessment gave predictions that were over-optimistic (closer to the observed disease rates) compared with cross validation. A mixed prediction method that simulated random effects from both higher levels was best at identifying the outlying level two (farm-year) units of interest. It is concluded that this mixed prediction method, simulating random effects from both higher levels, is straightforward and may be of value in model criticism of multilevel logistic regression, a technique commonly used for animal health data with a hierarchical structure.

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Although mitigating GHG emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and access due to land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Prior studies have examined the co-impacts on food availability and global producer prices caused by alternative climate policies. More recent studies have looked at the reduction in total caloric intake driven by both changing income and changing food prices under one specific climate policy. However, due to inelastic calorie demand, consumers’ well-being are likely further reduced by increased food expenditures. Built upon existing literature, my dissertation explores how alternative climate policy designs might adversely affect both caloric intake and staple food budget share to 2050, by using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and a post-estimated metric of food availability and access (FAA). My dissertation first develop a set of new metrics and methods to explore new perspectives of food availability and access under new conditions. The FAA metric consists of two components, the fraction of GDP per capita spent on five categories of staple food and total caloric intake relative to a reference level. By testing the metric against alternate expectations of the future, it shows consistent results with previous studies that economic growth dominates the improvement of FAA. As we increase our ambition to achieve stringent climate targets, two policy conditions tend to have large impacts on FAA driven by competing land use and increasing food prices. Strict conservation policies leave the competition between bioenergy and agriculture production on existing commercial land, while pricing terrestrial carbon encourages large-scale afforestation. To avoid unintended outcomes to food availability and access for the poor, pricing land emissions in frontier forests has the advantage of selecting more productive land for agricultural activities compared to the full conservation approach, but the land carbon price should not be linked to the price of energy system emissions. These results are highly relevant to effective policy-making to reduce land use change emissions, such as the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).

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A comprehensive method for the analysis of 11 target pharmaceuticals representing multiple therapeutic classes was developed for biological tissues (fish) and water. Water samples were extracted using solid phase extraction (SPE), while fish tissue homogenates were extracted using accelerated solvent extraction (ASE) followed by mixed-mode cation exchange SPE cleanup and analyzed by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Among the 11 target pharmaceuticals analyzed, trimethoprim, caffeine, sulfamethoxazole, diphenhydramine, diltiazem, carbamazepine, erythromycin and fluoxetine were consistently detected in reclaimed water. On the other hand, caffeine, diphenhydramine and carbamazepine were consistently detected in fish and surface water samples. In order to understand the uptake and depuration of pharmaceuticals as well as bioconcentration factors (BCFs) under the worst-case conditions, mosquito fish were exposed to reclaimed water under static-renewal for 7 days, followed by a 14-day depuration phase in clean water. Characterization of the exposure media revealed the presence of 26 pharmaceuticals while 5 pharmaceuticals including caffeine, diphenhydramine, diltiazem, carbamazepine, and ibuprofen were present in the organisms as early as 5 h from the start of the exposure. Liquid chromatography ultra-high resolution Orbitrap mass spectrometry was explored as a tool to identify and quantify phase II pharmaceutical metabolites in reclaimed water. The resulting data confirmed the presence of acetyl-sulfamethoxazole and sulfamethoxazole glucuronide in reclaimed water. To my knowledge, this is the first known report of sulfamethoxazole glucuronide surviving intact through wastewater treatment plants and occurring in environmental water samples. Finally, five bioaccumulative pharmaceuticals including caffeine, carbamazepine, diltiazem, diphenhydramine and ibuprofen detected in reclaimed water were investigated regarding the acute and chronic risks to aquatic organisms. The results indicated a low potential risk of carbamazepine even under the worst case exposure scenario. Given the dilution factors that affect environmental releases, the risk of exposure to carbamazepine will be even more reduced.

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An automated on-line SPE-LC-MS/MS method was developed for the quantitation of multiple classes of antibiotics in environmental waters. High sensitivity in the low ng/L range was accomplished by using large volume injections with 10-mL of sample. Positive confirmation of analytes was achieved using two selected reaction monitoring (SRM) transitions per antibiotic and quantitation was performed using an internal standard approach. Samples were extracted using online solid phase extraction, then using column switching technique; extracted samples were immediately passed through liquid chromatography and analyzed by tandem mass spectrometry. The total run time per each sample was 20 min. The statistically calculated method detection limits for various environmental samples were between 1.2 and 63 ng/L. Furthermore, the method was validated in terms of precision, accuracy and linearity. The developed analytical methodology was used to measure the occurrence of antibiotics in reclaimed waters (n=56), surface waters (n=53), ground waters (n=8) and drinking waters (n=54) collected from different parts of South Florida. In reclaimed waters, the most frequently detected antibiotics were nalidixic acid, erythromycin, clarithromycin, azithromycin trimethoprim, sulfamethoxazole and ofloxacin (19.3-604.9 ng/L). Detection of antibiotics in reclaimed waters indicates that they can’t be completely removed by conventional wastewater treatment process. Furthermore, the average mass loads of antibiotics released into the local environment through reclaimed water were estimated as 0.248 Kg/day. Among the surface waters samples, Miami River (reaching up to 580 ng/L) and Black Creek canal (up to 124 ng/L) showed highest concentrations of antibiotics. No traces of antibiotics were found in ground waters. On the other hand, erythromycin (monitored as anhydro erythromycin) was detected in 82% of the drinking water samples (n.d-66 ng/L). The developed approach is suitable for both research and monitoring applications. Major metabolites of antibiotics in reclaimed wates were identified and quantified using high resolution benchtop Q-Exactive orbitrap mass spectrometer. A phase I metabolite of erythromycin was tentatively identified in full scan based on accurate mass measurement. Using extracted ion chromatogram (XIC), high resolution data-dependent MS/MS spectra and metabolic profiling software the metabolite was identified as desmethyl anhydro erythromycin with molecular formula C36H63NO12 and m/z 702.4423. The molar concentration of the metabolite to erythromycin was in the order of 13 %. To my knowledge, this is the first known report on this metabolite in reclaimed water. Another compound acetyl-sulfamethoxazole, a phase II metabolite of sulfamethoxazole was also identified in reclaimed water and mole fraction of the metabolite represent 36 %, of the cumulative sulfamethoxazole concentration. The results were illustrating the importance to include metabolites also in the routine analysis to obtain a mass balance for better understanding of the occurrence, fate and distribution of antibiotics in the environment. Finally, all the antibiotics detected in reclaimed and surface waters were investigated to assess the potential risk to the aquatic organisms. The surface water antibiotic concentrations that represented the real time exposure conditions revealed that the macrolide antibiotics, erythromycin, clarithromycin and tylosin along with quinolone antibiotic, ciprofloxacin were suspected to induce high toxicity to aquatic biota. Preliminary results showing that, among the antibiotic groups tested, macrolides posed the highest ecological threat, and therefore, they may need to be further evaluated with, long-term exposure studies considering bioaccumulation factors and more number of species selected. Overall, the occurrence of antibiotics in aquatic environment is posing an ecological health concern.

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Introduction: The work environment and Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) practice have changed over the last number of years. A holistic OHS approach has been recommended by the authorities in this field (e.g. World Health Organisation (WHO), European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA) and the International Labour Organisation (ILO)). This involves a unified action engaging elements of the physical and psychosocial workplace with greater focus on prevention and promotion of health and wellbeing. The health and safety practitioner (HSP) has been recognised as one of the main agents for implementation of OHS. Within an organisation they act as a leader of change and a professional who shapes health and safety while safeguarding the wellbeing of individuals at work. Additionally, safety climate (SC) has been developed as an essential concept for OHS of an organisation, its productivity and the wellbeing of its workforce. Scholars and practitioners have recognised the great need for further empirical evidence on the HSP’s role in a changing work environment that increasingly requires the use of preventative measures and the assessment and management of psychosocial work-related risks. This doctoral research brings together the different concepts used in OHS and Public Health including SC, Psychosocial workplace risks, Health Promotion and OHS performance. The associations between these concepts are analysed bearing in mind the WHO Healthy Workplace Framework and three of its main components (physical and psychosocial work environment and health resources). This thesis aims to establish a deeper understanding of the practice and management of OHS in Ireland and the UK, exploring the role of HSPs (employed in diverse sectors of activity) and of SC in the OHS of organisations. Methods: One systematic review and three cross-sectional research studies were performed. The systematic review focussed on the evidence compiled for the association of SC with accidents and injuries at work, clarifying this concept’s definition and its most relevant dimensions. The second article (chapter 3) explored the association of SC with accidents and injuries in a sample of workers (n=367) from a pharmaceutical industry and compared permanent with non-permanent workers. Associations of safety climate with employment status and with self-reported occupational accidents/injuries were studied through logistic regression modelling. The third and fourth papers in this thesis investigated the main tasks performed by HSPs, their perceptions of SC, health climate (HC), psychosocial risk factors and health outcomes as well as work efficacy. Validated questionnaires were applied to a sample of HSPs in Ireland and UK, members of the Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (n=1444). Chi-square analysis and logistic regression were used to assess the association between HSPs work characteristics and their involvement in the management of Psychosocial Risk Factors, Safety Culture and Health Promotion (paper 3). Multiple linear regression analysis was used to determine the association between SC, HC, psychosocial risk factors and health outcomes (general health and mental wellbeing) and self-efficacy. Results: As shown in the systematic review, scientific evidence is unable to establish the widely assumed causal link between SC and accidents and injuries. Nevertheless, the current results suggested that, particularly, the organisational dimensions of SC were associated with accidents and injuries and that SC is linked to health, wellbeing and safety performance in the organisation. According to the present research, contingent workers had lower SC perceptions but showed a lower accident/injury rate than their permanent colleagues. The associations of safety climate with accidents/injuries had opposite directions for the two types of workers as for permanent employees it showed an inverse relationship while for temporary workers, although not significant, a positive association was found. This thesis’ findings showed that HSPs are, to a very small degree, included in activities related to psychosocial risk management and assessment, to a moderate degree, involved in HP activities and, to a large degree, engaged in the management of safety culture in organisations. In the final research study, SC and HC were linked to job demands-control-support (JDCS), health, wellbeing and efficacy. JDCS were also associated with all three outcomes under study. Results also showed the contribution of psychosocial risk factors to the association of SC and HC with all the studied outcomes. These associations had rarely been recorded previously. Discussion & Conclusions: Health and safety climate showed a significant association with health, wellbeing and efficacy - a relationship which affects working conditions and the health and wellbeing of the workforce. This demonstrates the link of both SC and HC with the OHS and the general strength or viability of organisations. A division was noticed between the area of “health” and “safety” in the workplace and in the approach to the physical and psychosocial work environment. These findings highlighted the current challenge in ensuring a holistic and multidisciplinary approach for prevention of hazards and for an integrated OHS management. HSPs have shown to be a pivotal agent in the shaping and development of OHS in organisations. However, as observed in this thesis, the role of these professionals is still far from the recommended involvement in the management of psychosocial risk factors and could have a more complete engagement in other areas of OHS such as health promotion. Additionally, a strong culture of health and safety with supportive management and buy-in from all stakeholders is essential to achieve the ideal unified and prevention-focussed approach to OHS as recommended by the WHO, EU-OSHA and ILO.