Reliability measures for local nodes assessment in classification trees

Most of the modem developments with classification trees are aimed at improving their predictive capacity. This article considers a curiously neglected aspect of classification trees, namely the reliability of predictions that come from a given classification tree. In the sense that a node of a tree represents a point in the predictor space in the limit, the aim of this article is the development of localized assessment of the reliability of prediction rules. A classification tree may be used either to provide a probability forecast, where for each node the membership probabilities for each class constitutes the prediction, or a true classification where each new observation is predictively assigned to a unique class. Correspondingly, two types of reliability measure will be derived-namely, prediction reliability and classification reliability. We use bootstrapping methods as the main tool to construct these measures. We also provide a suite of graphical displays by which they may be easily appreciated. In addition to providing some estimate of the reliability of specific forecasts of each type, these measures can also be used to guide future data collection to improve the effectiveness of the tree model. The motivating example we give has a binary response, namely the presence or absence of a species of Eucalypt, Eucalyptus cloeziana, at a given sampling location in response to a suite of environmental covariates, (although the methods are not restricted to binary response data).

Outpatient management of abnormal smears

Objectives: To review the results of the first 403 women treated at the Abnormal Smear and Colposcopy Unit with special reference to the utility, efficacy, acceptability and economy of in-office treatment of cervical lesions by large loop or Fischer cone excision. Design: Retrospective chart review of consecutive patients treated following, referral with an abnormal smear or abnormal cervical morphology, between 1 September 1996 and I August 2001. Setting: Inner city private practice. Sample: A total of 403 consecutive General Practitioner referred women. Methods: Details of referral smear result, colposcopically directed biopsy result, subsequent treatment type and histological result including assessability number of specimens submitted, complications and follow-up assessment were extracted at chart review. Costs of public hospital inpatient and outpatient care, supplied by the Casemix and Clinical Benchmarking Service, Mater Miseraecordae Public Hospitals (with permission to publish), were compared with Medicare rebates. Main outcome measures: A total of 187 women were treated by large loop excision of the transformation zone, and 216 by Fischer cone excision. The number of women who were treated as outpatients under local anaesthetic were 395, while eight patients were treated under general anaesthesia as inpatients. There was poor correlation between referring smear, biopsy and subsequent treatment results. Eight patients had abnormal cytology at follow-up, of whom two have been retreated. Three patients had primary or secondary bleeding requiring treatment and two developed cervical stenosis. Outpatient private practice treatment of women with abnormal smears allows significant savings to the public purse over public or private hospital care. Conclusions: Outpatient treatment of women with abnormal smears, using the Fischer cone technique, is safe, wen accepted, effective and the most cost efficient solution to this public health problem.

A proposed new classification system for whiplash associated disorders - implications for assessment and management

The development of chronic symptoms following whiplash injury is common and contributes substantially to costs associated with this condition. The currently used Quebec Task Force classification system of whiplash associated disorders is primarily based on the severity of signs and symptoms following injury and its usefulness has been questioned. Recent evidence is emerging that demonstrates differences in physical and psychological impairments between individuals who recover from the injury and those who develop persistent pain and disability. Motor dysfunction, local cervical mechanical hyperalgesia and psychological distress are present soon after injury in all whiplash injured persons irrespective of recovery. In contrast those individuals who develop persistent moderate/severe pain and disability show a more complex picture, characterized by additional impairments of widespread sensory hypersensitivity indicative of underlying disturbances in central pain processing as well as acute posttraumatic stress reaction, with these changes present from soon after injury. Based on this heterogeneity a new classification system is proposed that takes into account measurable disturbances in motor, sensory and psychological dysfunction. The implications for the management of this condition are discussed. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The management of extra-abdominal desmoid tumours

We performed a retrospective analysis of 35 cases of desmoid tumours (aggressive fibromatoses) that underwent treatment at our institutions between 1987 and 2002. The purpose was to evaluate the rate of local recurrence of desmoid tumours treated with surgical excision, to assess the impact of surgical margins on local recurrence and to define the role of radiotherapy in the treatment. Nine patients experienced a recurrence at an average of 16 months after initial treatment. Seven of the 15 patients with a less-than-wide margin had a local recurrence. Comparatively, only two of the 20 patients with a wide margin had a local recurrence. Thirty-three of the 35 patients were disease free at the last follow-up. We recommend wide excision with clear margins whenever possible. Marginal resections are appropriate when wide excision would severely compromise the function of the limb. Surgical resections and selective supplementation of adjuvant radiotherapy give excellent control rates.

A framework of lessons learned from community-based marine reserves and its effectiveness in guiding a new coastal management initiative in the Philippines

Community-based coastal resource management has been widely applied within the Philippines. However, small-scale community-based reserves are often inefficient owing to management inadequacies arising because of a lack of local support or enforcement or poor design. Because there are many potential pitfalls during the establishment of even small community-based reserves, it is important for coastal managers, communities, and facilitating institutions to have access to a summary of the key factors for success. Reviewing relevant literature, we present a framework of lessons learned during the establishment of protected areas, mainly in the Philippines. The framework contains summary guidance on the importance of (1) an island location, (2) small community population size, (3) minimal effect of land-based development, (4) application of a bottom-up approach, (5) an external facilitating institution, (6) acquisition of title, (7) use of a scientific information database, (8) stakeholder involvement, (9) the establishment of legislation, (10) community empowerment, (11) alternative livelihood schemes, (12) surveillance, (13) tangible management results, (14) continued involvement of external groups after reserve establishment, and (15) small-scale project expansion. These framework components guided the establishment of a community-based protected area at Danjugan Island, Negros Occidental, Philippines. This case study showed that the framework was a useful guide that led to establishing and implementing a community-based marine reserve. Evaluation of the reserve using standard criteria developed for the Philippines shows that the Danjugan Island protected area can be considered successful and sustainable. At Danjugan Island, all of the lessons synthesized in the framework were important and should be considered elsewhere, even for relatively small projects. As shown in previous projects in the Philippines, local involvement and stewardship of the protected area appeared particularly important for its successful implementation. The involvement of external organizations also seemed to have a key role in the success of the Danjugan Island project by guiding local decision-makers in the sociobiological principles of establishing protected areas. However, the relative importance of each component of the framework will vary between coastal management initiatives both within the Philippines and across the wider Asian region.

Corporate governance options for the local subsidiaries of multinational enterprises

While the corporate governance literature generally focuses on the parent legal entity, many organisations are now multinational enterprises (MNEs) with subsidiaries that are most often legal entities in their host countries. Despite the strengthening of corporate governance regimes internationally, the boards of these subsidiaries are in many instances perfunctory. This paper examines the question of whether developments in corporate governance theory and practice can add value for the local subsidiaries of MNEs. This paper provides a theoretical basis for evaluating governance models in MNEs. The paper commences with a review of the key concepts from the MNE and conglomerates literature with respect to core MNE strategies. The paper then discusses what the "governance roles" are that must be performed in MNE subsidiaries. We propose four governance frameworks for subsidiary corporations. These frameworks are: (1) Direct Control; (2) Dual Reporting; (3) Advisory Board; (4) Local Board. We consider the strengths and weaknesses of each model in relation to international strategy theory. We conclude with recommendations for the conditions under which the various models may be appropriate and practical guidelines for the utilisation of corporate governance theory to improve MNE performance.

Effects of tourism development on the local poor people - Case study in Taibai Region China

In China, protected areas are one of the main destinations attracting tourists and homeland for many poor people living in and around them. Based on a case study, the paper focuses on correlation between tourism and poverty alleviation by tracing the cash flows to the local poor. It also reviews the social and environmental effects of tourism on local area. The case study is conducted in a group of protected areas in Qinling Mountain Region in Shaanxi, a western province in China. Qinling Mountain is one of the most important distribution zones for Giant Panda and some other endangered wildlife such as Golden Takin and Golden Monkey. The tourism development in the region is happening. Research indicates that there is 29.33%, of tourist expenditure is going to local households, directly or indirectly. Tourist spends US$7.11 (13.67%) in food and beverage, and US$6.39 (12.23%) in accommodation service, which are the greatest contributors to local households in terms of tourism benefits. Local households can get US$8.15 from food/beverage and accommodation sectors, taking 56.64% of total income from tourism. Generally, tourism development benefits all stakeholders. However, poor people get less benefit. The paper analyses the barriers for the poor to be involved in tourism development, and discusses the government roles, major issues in implementation of Sustainable Tourism-Eliminating Poverty (ST-EP) model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The management of lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS). Is LCIS the same as ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS)?

Lobular carcinoma in situ was first described over 60 years ago. Despite the long history, it continues to pose significant difficulties in screening, diagnosis, management and treatment. This is partly due its multi-focal and bilateral presentation, an incomplete understanding of its biology and natural history and perpetuation of misconceptions gathered over the last decades. In this review, the working group on behalf of EUSOMA has attempted to summarise the current thinking and management of this interesting lesion. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Politics of Decentralizing National Parks Management in the Philippines

International donors and state bureaucrats in the developing world have promoted decentralization reform as the primary means to achieve equitable, efficient and sustainable natural resource management. Relatively few studies, however, consider the power interests at stake. Why do state agencies decentralize power, what political patterns unfold, and how do outcomes affect the responses of resource users? This paper explores decentralization reform by investigating the political processes behind the Philippine state's decisions to transfer authority over national parks management to local government units. Drawing on a case of devolved management at Puerto Princesa Subterranean River National Park, Palawan Island, we examine how political motives situated at different institutional scales affect the broader process of decentralization, the structure of management institutions, and overall livelihood security. We demonstrate how power struggles between the Philippine state and City Government of Palawan over the right to manage the national park have impacted the livelihood support offered by community-based conservation. We conclude that decentralization may offer empowering resu

Co-opting conservation: Migrant resource control and access to national park management in the Philippine uplands

The history of political and economic inequality in forest villages can shape how and why resource use conflicts arise during the evolution of national parks management. In the Philippine uplands, indigenous peoples and migrant settlers co-exist, compete over land and forest resources, and shape how managers preserve forests through national parks. This article examines how migrants have claimed lands and changed production and exchange relations among the indigenous Tagbanua to build on and benefit from otherwise coercive park management on Palawan Island, the Philippines. Migrant control over productive resources has influenced who, within each group, could sustain agriculture in the face of the state's dominant conservation narrative - valorizing migrant paddy rice and criminalizing Tagbanua swiddens. Upon settling, migrant farmers used new political and economic strengths to tap into provincial political networks in order to be hired at a national park. As a result, they were able to steer management to support paddy rice at the expense of swidden cultivation. While state conservation policy shapes how national parks impact upon local resource access and use, older political economic inequalities in forest villages build on such policies to influence how management affects the livelihoods of poor households.

Clinical features and management of tumors affecting the lacrimal drainage apparatus

Purpose: To report the clinical features of a series of patients with lacrimal drainage apparatus tumors and present guidelines for management based on histopathology. Methods: A noncomparative retrospective chart review of the clinical, imaging, and pathologic findings of 37 patients presenting to four regional orbital Surgery departments with tumors affecting the lacrimal drainage apparatus between 1990 and 2004. Results: There were 37 patients, of whom 62% were male. The mean age at referral was 54 years. Epiphora, a palpable mass, and dacryocystitis were the most common presentations. Two thirds of the tumors were epithelial. with carcinomas being the most frequent (38%). followed by papillomas (27%). Lymphomas were the most common nonepithelial malignancy (30%). Epithelial tumors were more common in men (87%), whereas lymphomas were more common in women (57%). Treatment modalities included surgery, in addition to radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy and immunotherapy. Mean follow-up was 38 months. Thirty-three patients (89%) remain alive without evidence of disease and 4 patients died of recurrence and/or metastases. Conclusions: Lacrimal drainage apparatus tumors require careful initial management to ensure adequate local and systemic disease control. Atypical mucosa encountered during dacryocystorhinostomy should be biopsied and small papillomas or pedunculated tumors excised and analyzed with frozen sections. If a diffuse or infiltrative mass is encountered, it should be biopsied and managed on the basis of histopathology and extent of disease. Lymphomas should be treated according to protocols. whereas noninvasive carcinoma and extensive papillomas require complete excision of the system. Invasive disease requires en bloc excision. Long-term follow-up is essential for early detection of recurrence.

Efficient accommodation of local minima in watershed model calibration

The Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg (GML) method of computer-based parameter estimation, in common with other gradient-based approaches, suffers from the drawback that it may become trapped in local objective function minima, and thus report optimized parameter values that are not, in fact, optimized at all. This can seriously degrade its utility in the calibration of watershed models where local optima abound. Nevertheless, the method also has advantages, chief among these being its model-run efficiency, and its ability to report useful information on parameter sensitivities and covariances as a by-product of its use. It is also easily adapted to maintain this efficiency in the face of potential numerical problems (that adversely affect all parameter estimation methodologies) caused by parameter insensitivity and/or parameter correlation. The present paper presents two algorithmic enhancements to the GML method that retain its strengths, but which overcome its weaknesses in the face of local optima. Using the first of these methods an intelligent search for better parameter sets is conducted in parameter subspaces of decreasing dimensionality when progress of the parameter estimation process is slowed either by numerical instability incurred through problem ill-posedness, or when a local objective function minimum is encountered. The second methodology minimizes the chance of successive GML parameter estimation runs finding the same objective function minimum by starting successive runs at points that are maximally removed from previous parameter trajectories. As well as enhancing the ability of a GML-based method to find the global objective function minimum, the latter technique can also be used to find the locations of many non-global optima (should they exist) in parameter space. This can provide a useful means of inquiring into the well-posedness of a parameter estimation problem, and for detecting the presence of bimodal parameter and predictive probability distributions. The new methodologies are demonstrated by calibrating a Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model against a time series of daily flows. Comparison with the SCE-UA method in this calibration context demonstrates a high level of comparative model run efficiency for the new method. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cutting management of multipurpose tree legumes: effects on green herbage production, leaf retention and water-use-efficiency during the dry season in Timor, Indonesia

Edible herbage production and water-use-efficiency of three tree legumes (Leucaena leucocephala cv. Tarramba, L. pallida x L. leucocephala (KX2) and Gliricidia sepium), cut at different times of the year (February, April, June and uncut) were compared in a semi-arid area of Timor Island, Indonesia. Cutting in the early and mid dry-season (April and June) resulted in higher total leaf production (P< 0.05) and water-use-efficiency (P< 0.05), than cutting late in the wet-season (February) or being left uncut. For the leucaena treatments removing leaf in the early to mid dry-season reduced transpiration, saving soil water for subsequent regrowth as evidenced by the higher relative water contents of leaves from these treatments. This cutting strategy can be applied to local farming conditions to increase the supply of feed for livestock during the dry season.