Tecniche regionali di stima della portata di progetto: Impatto della correlazione spaziale tra le serie di osservazioni

La stima degli indici idrometrici in bacini non strumentati rappresenta un problema che la ricerca internazionale ha affrontato attraverso il cosiddetto PUB (Predictions on Ungauged Basins – IAHS, 2002-2013). Attraverso l’analisi di un’area di studio che comprende 61 bacini del Sud-Est americano, si descrivono e applicano due tecniche di stima molto diverse fra loro: il metodo regressivo ai Minimi Quadrati Generalizzati (GLS) e il Topological kriging (TK). Il primo considera una serie di fattori geomorfoclimatici relativi ai bacini oggetto di studio, e ne estrae i pesi per un modello di regressione lineare dei quantili; il secondo è un metodo di tipo geostatistico che considera il quantile come una variabile regionalizzata su supporto areale (l’area del bacino), tenendo conto della dislocazione geografica e l’eventuale struttura annidata dei bacini d’interesse. L’applicazione di questi due metodi ha riguardato una serie di quantili empirici associati ai tempi di ritorno di 10, 50, 100 e 500 anni, con lo scopo di valutare le prestazioni di un loro possibile accoppiamento, attraverso l’interpolazione via TK dei residui GLS in cross-validazione jack-knife e con differenti vicinaggi. La procedura risulta essere performante, con un indice di efficienza di Nash-Sutcliffe pari a 0,9 per tempi di ritorno bassi ma stazionario su 0,8 per gli altri valori, con un trend peggiorativo all’aumentare di TR e prestazioni pressoché invariate al variare del vicinaggio. L’applicazione ha mostrato che i risultati possono migliorare le prestazioni del metodo GLS ed essere paragonabili ai risultati del TK puro, confermando l’affidabilità del metodo geostatistico ad applicazioni idrologiche.

When Beauty Goes to Sleep: an analysis of the symbolism behind the sleeping beauty tale

Approaching the world of the fairy tale as an adult, one soon realizes that things are not what they once seemed during story time in bed. Something that once appeared so innocent and simple can become rather complex when digging into its origin. A kiss, for example, can mean something else entirely. I can clearly remember my sister, who is ten years older than I am, telling me that the fairy tales I was told had a mysterious hidden meaning I could not understand. I was probably 9 or 10 when she told me that the story of Sleeping Beauty, which I used to love so much in Disney’s rendering, was nothing more than the story of an adolescent girl, with all the necessary steps needed to become a woman, the bleeding of menstruation and the sexual awakening - even though she did not really put it in these terms. This shocking news troubled me for a while, so much so that I haven’t watched that movie since. But in reality it was not fear that my sister had implanted in me: it was curiosity, the feeling that I was missing something terribly important behind the words and images. But it was not until last year during my semester abroad in Germany, where I had the chance to take a very interesting English literature seminar, that I fully understood what I had been looking for all these years. Thanks to what I learned from the work of Bruno Bettelheim, Jack Zipes, Vladimir Propp, and many other authors that wrote extensively about the subject, I feel I finally have the right tools to really get to know this fairy tale. But what I also know now is that the message behind fairy tales is not to be searched for behind only one version: on the contrary, since they come from oral traditions and their form was slowly shaped by centuries of recountals and retellings, the more one digs, the more complete the understanding of the tale will be. I will therefore look for Sleeping Beauty’s hidden meaning by looking for the reason why it did stick so consistently throughout time. To achieve this goal, I have organized my analysis in three chapters: in the first chapter, I will analyze the first known literary version of the tale, the French Perceforest, and then compare it with the following Italian version, Basile’s Sun, Moon, and Talia; in the second chapter, I will focus on the most famous and by now classical literary versions of Sleeping Beauty, La Belle Au Bois Dormant, written by the Frenchman, Perrault, and the German Dornröschen, recorded by the Brothers Grimm’s; finally, in the last chapter, I will analyze Almodovar’s film Talk to Her as a modern rewriting of this tale, which after a closer look, appears closely related to the earliest version of the story, Perceforest.

Metodi per la stima spaziale della temperatura in territori ad orografia complessa e parametrizzazione di un modello idrologico semi-distribuito su alcuni bacini appenninici

I bacini idrografici appenninici romagnoli rappresentano una fonte idropotabile di essenziale importanza per la Romagna, grazie alla regolazione stagionale svolta dall’invaso artificiale di Ridracoli. Nel presente elaborato si è implementato un modello per lo studio e la valutazione del regime idrologico dei bacini idrografici allacciati all’invaso, affrontando sia gli aspetti relativi alla miglior spazializzazione dei dati metereologici in ingresso al modello (in particolare in relazione alla stima della temperatura, fondamentale per la rappresentazione dei processi di evapotraspirazione e dei fenomeni di accumulo e scioglimento nevoso), sia gli aspetti di calibrazione dei parametri, confrontando le simulazioni ottenute a partire da diverse configurazioni del modello in termini di rappresentazione spaziale e temporale dei fenomeni. Inoltre si è eseguita una regionalizzazione del modello su due sezioni fluviali che sono al momento oggetto di indagini idrologiche, fornendo supporto alla valutazione della possibilità di realizzazione di una nuova opera di presa. A partire dai dati puntuali dei sensori termometrici disponibili si è ricercata la migliore tecnica di interpolazione della temperatura sull’area di studio, ottenendo una discreta precisione, con un errore in procedura di ricampionamento jack-knife raramente superiore al grado centigrado. La calibrazione del modello TUWien in approccio semi-distribuito, sia quando applicato a scala oraria sia quando applicato a scala giornaliera, ha portato a buoni risultati. La complessità del modello, dovuta in gran parte alla presenza di uno specifico modulo per la gestione di accumulo e scioglimento nivale, è stata ripagata dalle buone prestazioni delle simulazioni ottenute, sia sul periodo di calibrazione sia su quello di validazione. Tuttavia si è osservato che l’approccio semi-distribuito non ha portato benefici sostanziali rispetto a quello concentrato, soprattutto in relazione al forte aumento di costo computazionale.

Successful treatment of childhood high-risk hepatoblastoma with dose-intensive multiagent chemotherapy and surgery: final results of the SIOPEL-3HR study

The primary objective was to determine the efficacy of a newly designed preoperative chemotherapy regimen in an attempt to improve the cure rate of children with high-risk hepatoblastoma.

Genome-wide meta-analysis increases to 71 the number of confirmed Crohn's disease susceptibility loci

We undertook a meta-analysis of six Crohn's disease genome-wide association studies (GWAS) comprising 6,333 affected individuals (cases) and 15,056 controls and followed up the top association signals in 15,694 cases, 14,026 controls and 414 parent-offspring trios. We identified 30 new susceptibility loci meeting genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10 ? ? ). A series of in silico analyses highlighted particular genes within these loci and, together with manual curation, implicated functionally interesting candidate genes including SMAD3, ERAP2, IL10, IL2RA, TYK2, FUT2, DNMT3A, DENND1B, BACH2 and TAGAP. Combined with previously confirmed loci, these results identify 71 distinct loci with genome-wide significant evidence for association with Crohn's disease.

Canadian Cardiovascular Society 2009 Consensus Conference on the management of adults with congenital heart disease: executive summary

With advances in pediatric cardiology and cardiac surgery, the population of adults with congenital heart disease (CHD) has increased. In the current era, there are more adults with CHD than children. This population has many unique issues and needs. They have distinctive forms of heart failure, and their cardiac disease can be associated with pulmonary hypertension, thromboemboli, complex arrhythmias and sudden death.Medical aspects that need to be considered relate to the long-term and multisystemic effects of single-ventricle physiology, cyanosis, systemic right ventricles, complex intracardiac baffles and failing subpulmonary right ventricles. Since the 2001 Canadian Cardiovascular Society Consensus Conference report on the management of adults with CHD, there have been significant advances in the understanding of the late outcomes, genetics, medical therapy and interventional approaches in the field of adult CHD. Therefore, new clinical guidelines have been written by Canadian adult CHD physicians in collaboration with an international panel of experts in the field. The present executive summary is a brief overview of the new guidelines and includes the recommendations for interventions. The complete document consists of four manuscripts that are published online in the present issue of The Canadian Journal of Cardiology, including sections on genetics, clinical outcomes, recommended diagnostic workup, surgical and interventional options, treatment of arrhythmias, assessment of pregnancy and contraception risks, and follow-up requirements. The complete document and references can also be found at www.ccs.ca or www.cachnet.org.

Urinary soluble HLA-DR is a potential biomarker for acute renal transplant rejection

BACKGROUND.: Urine is a potentially rich source of biomarkers for monitoring kidney dysfunction. In this study, we have investigated the potential of soluble human leukocyte antigen (sHLA)-DR in the urine for noninvasive monitoring of renal transplant patients. METHODS.: Urinary soluble HLA-DR levels were measured by sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 103 patients with renal diseases or after renal transplantation. sHLA-DR in urine was characterized by Western blotting and mass spectrometry. RESULTS.: Acute graft rejection was associated with a significantly elevated level of urinary sHLA-DR (P<0.0001), compared with recipients with stable graft function or healthy individuals. A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed the area under the curve to be 0.88 (P<0.001). At a selected threshold, the sensitivity was 80% and specificity was 98% for detection of acute renal transplant rejection. sHLA-DR was not exosomally associated and was of lower molecular weight compared with the HLA-DR expressed as heterodimer on the plasma membrane of antigen-presenting cells. CONCLUSIONS.: sHLA-DR excreted into urine is a promising indicator of renal transplant rejection.

Male-biased reproductive effort in a long-lived seabird.

Background: In dimorphic seabirds, the larger sex tends to provision more than the smaller sex. In contrast, monogamy and biparental care are often associated with equal effort between the sexes. However, the few studies that have tested sex-specific effort in monomorphic seabirds have primarily examined the details of foraging at sea. Hypotheses: Parental effort is also sex-biased in a monomorphic seabird mating system for one of two reasons: (1) If females enter the period of parental care less able to invest in care due to the cost of egg production, male-biased effort may be necessary to avoid reproductive failure. (2) Alternatively, female-biased effort may occur due to the initial disparity in gamete size, particularly in species with internal fertilization. Organism: Leach’s storm-petrel (Oceanodroma leucorhoa), a monomorphic seabird with true monogamy and obligate biparental care. Site: A breeding colony of Oceanodroma leucorhoa at the Bowdoin Scientific Station on Kent Island, Bay of Fundy, New Brunswick, Canada. Methods: Across multiple breeding seasons, we assessed incubation behaviour and chickrearing behaviour through one manipulative and multiple observational studies. We assessed energetic investment by inducing feather replacement and measuring the resulting rate of feather growth during both the incubation and chick-rearing phases of parental care. Conclusions: We observed male-biased effort. Males incubated the egg for a greater proportion of time than did females and, when faced with an egg that would not hatch, males continued to incubate past the point when females abandoned it. Males made a higher percentage of total food deliveries to chicks than did females, resulting in greater mean daily food provisioning by males than by females. During chick rearing, males grew replacement feathers more slowly than did females, indicating that males were more likely to reduce their own nutritional condition while raising chicks than were females. These results support the hypothesis that females enter the period of parental care at a nutritional deficit and males must compensate to avoid reproductive failure.

Should intentional endovascular stent-graft coverage of the left subclavian artery be preceded by prophylactic revascularisation?

Thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) has emerged as a promising therapeutic alternative to conventional open aortic replacement but it requires suitable proximal and distal landing zones for stent-graft anchoring. Many aortic pathologies affect in the immediate proximity of the left subclavian artery (LSA) limiting the proximal landing zone site without proximal vessel coverage. In patients in whom the distance between the LSA and aortic lesion is too short, extension of the landing zone can be obtained by covering the LSA's origin with the endovascular stent graft (ESG). This manoeuvre has the potential for immediate and delayed neurological and vascular symptoms. Some authors, therefore, propose prophylactic revascularisation of the LSA by transposition or bypass, while others suggest prophylactic revascularisation only under certain conditions, and still others see no requirement for prophylactic revascularisation in anticipation of LSA ostium coverage. In this review about LSA revascularisation in TEVAR patients with coverage of the LSA, we searched the electronic databases MEDLINE and EMBASE historically until the end date of May 2010 with the search terms left subclavian artery, covering, endovascular, revascularisation and thoracic aorta. We have gathered the most complete scientific evidence available used to support the various concepts to deal with this issue. After a review of the current available literature, 23 relevant articles were found, where we have identified and analysed three basic treatment concepts for LSA revascularisation in TEVAR patients (prophylactic, conditional prophylactic and no prophylactic LSA revascularisation). The available evidence supports prophylactic revascularisation of the LSA before ESG LSA coverage when preoperative imaging reveals abnormal supra-aortic vascular anatomy or pathology. We further conclude that elective patients undergoing planned coverage of the LSA during TEVAR should receive prophylactic LSA transposition or LSA-to-left-common-carotid-artery (LCCA) bypass surgery to prevent severe neurological complications, such as paraplegia or brain stem infarction.

Short- and long-term immunological and virological outcome in HIV-infected infants according to the age at antiretroviral treatment initiation

The clinical benefit of antiretroviral therapy in infants is established. In this cohort collaboration, we compare immunological and virological response to treatment started before or after 3 months of age. Early initiation provides a better short-term response, although evolution after 12 months of age is similar in both groups.

Meta-analysis identifies 29 additional ulcerative colitis risk loci, increasing the number of confirmed associations to 47

Genome-wide association studies and candidate gene studies in ulcerative colitis have identified 18 susceptibility loci. We conducted a meta-analysis of six ulcerative colitis genome-wide association study datasets, comprising 6,687 cases and 19,718 controls, and followed up the top association signals in 9,628 cases and 12,917 controls. We identified 29 additional risk loci (P < 5 × 10(-8)), increasing the number of ulcerative colitis-associated loci to 47. After annotating associated regions using GRAIL, expression quantitative trait loci data and correlations with non-synonymous SNPs, we identified many candidate genes that provide potentially important insights into disease pathogenesis, including IL1R2, IL8RA-IL8RB, IL7R, IL12B, DAP, PRDM1, JAK2, IRF5, GNA12 and LSP1. The total number of confirmed inflammatory bowel disease risk loci is now 99, including a minimum of 28 shared association signals between Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis.

NOD2 gene variants are a risk factor for culture-positive spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and monomicrobial bacterascites in cirrhosis

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is considered as result of bacterial translocation from the gastrointestinal lumen to the mesenteric lymph nodes and subsequent circulation. Variants of the NOD2 gene contribute to bacterial translocation and were associated with SBP in a recent study.