Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (−22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.

Phosphorus dynamics and export in streams draining micro-catchments: Development of empirical models

Annual total phosphorus (TP) export data from 108 European micro-catchments were analyzed against descriptive catchment data on climate (runoff), soil types, catchment size, and land use. The best possible empirical model developed included runoff, proportion of agricultural land and catchment size as explanatory variables but with a low explanation of the variance in the dataset (R-2 = 0.37). Improved country specific empirical models could be developed in some cases. The best example was from Norway where an analysis of TP-export data from 12 predominantly agricultural micro-catchments revealed a relationship explaining 96% of the variance in TP-export. The explanatory variables were in this case soil-P status (P-AL), proportion of organic soil, and the export of suspended sediment. Another example is from Denmark where an empirical model was established for the basic annual average TP-export from 24 catchments with percentage sandy soils, percentage organic soils, runoff, and application of phosphorus in fertilizer and animal manure as explanatory variables (R-2 = 0.97).

Intercropping with pulses to concentrate nitrogen and sulphur in wheat

The effects of intercropping wheat with faba bean (Denmark, Germany, Italy and UK) and wheat with pea (France), in additive and replacement designs on grain nitrogen and sulphur concentrations were studied in field experiments in the 2002/03, 2003/04 and 2004/05 growing seasons. Intercropping wheat with grain legumes regularly increased the nitrogen concentration of the cereal grain, irrespective of design or location. Sulphur concentration of the cereal was also increased by intercropping, but less regularly and to a lesser extent compared with effects on nitrogen concentration. Nitrogen concentration (g/kg) in wheat additively intercropped with faba bean was increased by 8% across all sites (weighted for inverse of variance), but sulphur concentration was only increased by 4%, so N:S ratio was also increased by 4%. Intercropping wheat with grain legumes increased sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS)-sedimentation volume. The effect of intercropping on wheat nitrogen concentration was greatest when intercropping had the most deleterious effect on wheat yield and the least deleterious effect on pulse yield. Over all sites and seasons, and irrespective of whether the design was additive or replacement, increases in crude protein concentration in the wheat of 10 g/kg by intercropping with faba bean were associated with 25-30% yield reduction of the wheat, compared with sole-cropped wheat. It was concluded that the increase in protein concentration of wheat grain in intercrops could be of economic benefit when selling wheat for breadmaking, but only if the bean crop was also marketed effectively.

Pea-barley intercropping for efficient symbiotic N-2-fixation, soil N acquisition and use of other nutrients in European organic cropping systems

Complementarity in acquisition of nitrogen (N) from soil and N-2-fixation within pea and barley intercrops was studied in organic field experiments across Western Europe (Denmark, United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy). Spring pea and barley were sown either as sole crops, at the recommended plant density (P100 and B100, respectively) or in replacement (P50B50) or additive (P100B50) intercropping designs, in each of three cropping seasons (2003-2005). Irrespective of site and intercrop design, Land Equivalent Ratios (LER) between 1.4 at flowering and 1.3 at maturity showed that total N recovery was greater in the pea-barley intercrops than in the sole Crops Suggesting a high degree of complementarity over a wide range of growing conditions. Complementarity was partly attributed to greater soil mineral N acquisition by barley, forcing pea to rely more on N-2-fixation. At all sites the proportion of total aboveground pea N that was derived from N-2-fixation was greater when intercropped with barley than when grown as a sole crop. No consistent differences were found between the two intercropping designs. Simultaneously, the accumulation Of Phosphorous (P), potassium (K) and sulphur (S) in Danish and German experiments was 20% higher in the intercrop (P50B50) than in the respective sole crops, possibly influencing general crop yields and thereby competitive ability for other resources. Comparing all sites and seasons, the benefits of organic pea-barley intercropping for N acquisition were highly resilient. It is concluded that pea-barley intercropping is a relevant cropping strategy to adopt when trying to optimize N-2-fixation inputs to the cropping system. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pea-barley intercropping and short-term subsequent crop effects across European organic cropping conditions

Grain legumes are known to increase the soil mineral nitrogen (N) content, reduce the infection pressure of soil borne pathogens, and hence enhance subsequent cereals yields. Replicated field experiments were performed throughout W. Europe (Denmark, United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy) to asses the effect of intercropping pea and barley on the N supply to subsequent wheat in organic cropping systems. Pea and barley were grown either as sole crops at the recommended plant density (P100 and B100, respectively) or in replacement (P50B50) or additive (P100B50) intercropping designs. In the replacement design the total relative plant density is kept constant, while the additive design uses the optimal sole crop density for pea supplementing with 'extra' barley plants. The pea and barley crops were followed by winter wheat with and without N application. Additional experiments in Denmark and the United Kingdom included subsequent spring wheat with grass-clover as catch crops. The experiment was repeated over the three cropping seasons of 2003, 2004 and 2005. Irrespective of sites and intercrop design pea-barley intercropping improved the plant resource utilization (water, light, nutrients) to grain N yield with 25-30% using the Land Equivalent ratio. In terms of absolute quantities, sole cropped pea accumulated more N in the grains as compared to the additive design followed by the replacement design and then sole cropped barley. The post harvest soil mineral N content was unaffected by the preceding crops. Under the following winter wheat, the lowest mineral N content was generally found in early spring. Variation in soil mineral N content under the winter wheat between sites and seasons indicated a greater influence of regional climatic conditions and long-term cropping history than annual preceding crop and residue quality. Just as with the soil mineral N, the subsequent crop response to preceding crop was negligible. Soil N balances showed general negative values in the 2-year period, indicating depletion of N independent of preceding crop and cropping strategy. It is recommended to develop more rotational approaches to determine subsequent crop effects in organic cropping systems, since preceding crop effects, especially when including legumes, can occur over several years of cropping.

Exploring options for managing strategies for pea-barley intercropping using a modeling approach

A modeling Study was carried out into pea-barley intercropping in northern Europe. The two objectives were (a) to compare pea-barley intercropping to sole cropping in terms of grain and nitrogen yield amounts and stability, and (b) to explore options for managing pea-barley intercropping systems in order to maximize the biomass produced and the grain and nitrogen yields according to the available resources, such as light, water and nitrogen. The study consisted of simulations taking into account soil and weather variability among three sites located in northern European Countries (Denmark, United Kingdom and France), and using 10 years of weather records. A preliminary stage evaluated the STICS intercrop model's ability to predict grain and nitrogen yields of the two species, using a 2-year dataset from trials conducted at the three sites. The work was carried out in two phases, (a) the model was run to investigate the potentialities of intercrops as compared to sole crops, and (b) the model was run to explore options for managing pea-barley intercropping, asking the following three questions: (i) in order to increase light capture, Would it be worth delaying the sowing dates of one species? (ii) How to manage sowing density and seed proportion of each species in the intercrop to improve total grain yield and N use efficiency? (iii) How to optimize the use of nitrogen resources by choosing the most suitable preceding crop and/or the most appropriate soil? It was found that (1) intercropping made better use of environmental resources as regards yield amount and stability than sole cropping, with a noticeable site effect, (2) pea growth in intercrops was strongly linked to soil moisture, and barley yield was determined by nitrogen uptake and light interception due to its height relative to pea, (3) sowing barley before pea led to a relative grain yield reduction averaged over all three sites, but sowing strategy must be adapted to the location, being dependent on temperature and thus latitude, (4) density and species proportions had a small effect on total grain yield, underlining the interspecific offset in the use of environmental growth resources which led to similar total grain yields whatever the pea-barley design, and (5) long-term strategies including mineralization management through organic residue supply and rotation management were very valuable, always favoring intercrop total grain yield and N accumulation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.