B-spline neural networks based PID controller for Hammerstein systems

A new PID tuning and controller approach is introduced for Hammerstein systems based on input/output data. A B-spline neural network is used to model the nonlinear static function in the Hammerstein system. The control signal is composed of a PID controller together with a correction term. In order to update the control signal, the multistep ahead predictions of the Hammerstein system based on the B-spline neural networks and the associated Jacobians matrix are calculated using the De Boor algorithms including both the functional and derivative recursions. A numerical example is utilized to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approaches.

Extreme precipitation and climate change: the potential impacts on flooding

Recent extreme precipitation events have caused widespread flooding to the UK. The prediction of the intensity of such events in a warmer climate is important for adaption strategies against future events. This study highlights the importance of using high-resolution models to predict these events. Using a high-resolution GCM it is shown that extreme precipitation events are predicted to become more frequent under the IPCC A1B warming scenario. It is also shown that current forecast models have difficulty in predicting the location, timing and intensity of small scale precipitation in areas with significant orography.

Investigating global tropical cyclone activity with a hierarchy of AGCMs: the role of model resolution

The ability to run General Circulation Models (GCMs) at ever-higher horizontal resolutions has meant that tropical cyclone simulations are increasingly credible. A hierarchy of atmosphere-only GCMs, based on the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1), with horizontal resolution increasing from approximately 270km to 60km (at 50N), is used to systematically investigate the impact of spatial resolution on the simulation of global tropical cyclone activity, independent of model formulation. Tropical cyclones are extracted from ensemble simulations and reanalyses of comparable resolutions using a feature-tracking algorithm. Resolution is critical for simulating storm intensity and convergence to observed storm intensities is not achieved with the model hierarchy. Resolution is less critical for simulating the annual number of tropical cyclones and their geographical distribution, which are well captured at resolutions of 135km or higher, particularly for Northern Hemisphere basins. Simulating the interannual variability of storm occurrence requires resolutions of 100km or higher; however, the level of skill is basin dependent. Higher resolution GCMs are increasingly able to capture the interannual variability of the large-scale environmental conditions that contribute to tropical cyclogenesis. Different environmental factors contribute to the interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the different basins: in the North Atlantic basin the vertical wind shear, potential intensity and low-level absolute vorticity are dominant, while in the North Pacific basins mid-level relative humidity and low-level absolute vorticity are dominant. Model resolution is crucial for a realistic simulation of tropical cyclone behaviour, and high-resolution GCMs are found to be valuable tools for investigating the global location and frequency of tropical cyclones.

A comparison of two identification and tracking methods for polar lows

In this study, we compare two different cyclone-tracking algorithms to detect North Atlantic polar lows, which are very intense mesoscale cyclones. Both approaches include spatial filtering, detection, tracking and constraints specific to polar lows. The first method uses digital bandpass-filtered mean sea level pressure (MSLP) fieldsin the spatial range of 200�600 km and is especially designed for polar lows. The second method also uses a bandpass filter but is based on the discrete cosine transforms (DCT) and can be applied to MSLP and vorticity fields. The latter was originally designed for cyclones in general and has been adapted to polar lows for this study. Both algorithms are applied to the same regional climate model output fields from October 1993 to September 1995 produced from dynamical downscaling of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Comparisons between these two methods show that different filters lead to different numbers and locations of tracks. The DCT is more precise in scale separation than the digital filter and the results of this study suggest that it is more suited for the bandpass filtering of MSLP fields. The detection and tracking parts also influence the numbers of tracks although less critically. After a selection process that applies criteria to identify tracks of potential polar lows, differences between both methods are still visible though the major systems are identified in both.

High-resolution global climate simulations with the ECMWF model in Project Athena: experimental design, model climate, and seasonal forecast skill

The sensitivity to the horizontal resolution of the climate, anthropogenic climate change, and seasonal predictive skill of the ECMWF model has been studied as part of Project Athena—an international collaboration formed to test the hypothesis that substantial progress in simulating and predicting climate can be achieved if mesoscale and subsynoptic atmospheric phenomena are more realistically represented in climate models. In this study the experiments carried out with the ECMWF model (atmosphere only) are described in detail. Here, the focus is on the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during boreal winter. The resolutions considered in Project Athena for the ECMWF model are T159 (126 km), T511 (39 km), T1279 (16 km), and T2047 (10 km). It was found that increasing horizontal resolution improves the tropical precipitation, the tropical atmospheric circulation, the frequency of occurrence of Euro-Atlantic blocking, and the representation of extratropical cyclones in large parts of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. All of these improvements come from the increase in resolution from T159 to T511 with relatively small changes for further resolution increases to T1279 and T2047, although it should be noted that results from this very highest resolution are from a previously untested model version. Problems in simulating the Madden–Julian oscillation remain unchanged for all resolutions tested. There is some evidence that increasing horizontal resolution to T1279 leads to moderate increases in seasonal forecast skill during boreal winter in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Sensitivity experiments are discussed, which helps to foster a better understanding of some of the resolution dependence found for the ECMWF model in Project Athena

Tropical cyclone climatology in a 10-km global atmospheric GCM: toward weather-resolving climate modeling

Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone (TC) activity is investigated in multiyear global climate simulations with theECMWFIntegrated Forecast System (IFS) at 10-km resolution forced by the observed records of sea surface temperature and sea ice. The results are compared to analogous simulationswith the 16-, 39-, and 125-km versions of the model as well as observations. In the North Atlantic, mean TC frequency in the 10-km model is comparable to the observed frequency, whereas it is too low in the other versions. While spatial distributions of the genesis and track densities improve systematically with increasing resolution, the 10-km model displays qualitatively more realistic simulation of the track density in the western subtropical North Atlantic. In the North Pacific, the TC count tends to be too high in thewest and too low in the east for all resolutions. These model errors appear to be associated with the errors in the large-scale environmental conditions that are fairly similar in this region for all model versions. The largest benefits of the 10-km simulation are the dramatically more accurate representation of the TC intensity distribution and the structure of the most intense storms. The model can generate a supertyphoon with a maximum surface wind speed of 68.4 m s21. The life cycle of an intense TC comprises intensity fluctuations that occur in apparent connection with the variations of the eyewall/rainband structure. These findings suggest that a hydrostatic model with cumulus parameterization and of high enough resolution could be efficiently used to simulate the TC intensity response (and the associated structural changes) to future climate change.

Water vapour foreign-continuum absorption in near-infrared windows from laboratory measurements

For a long time, it has been believed that atmospheric absorption of radiation within wavelength regions of relatively high infrared transmittance (so-called ‘windows’) was dominated by the water vapour self-continuum, that is, spectrally smooth absorption caused by H2O−H2O pair interaction. Absorption due to the foreign continuum (i.e. caused mostly by H2O−N2 bimolecular absorption in the Earth's atmosphere) was considered to be negligible in the windows. We report new retrievals of the water vapour foreign continuum from high-resolution laboratory measurements at temperatures between 350 and 430 K in four near-infrared windows between 1.1 and 5 μm (9000–2000 cm−1). Our results indicate that the foreign continuum in these windows has a very weak temperature dependence and is typically between one and two orders of magnitude stronger than that given in representations of the continuum currently used in many climate and weather prediction models. This indicates that absorption owing to the foreign continuum may be comparable to the self-continuum under atmospheric conditions in the investigated windows. The calculated global-average clear-sky atmospheric absorption of solar radiation is increased by approximately 0.46 W m−2 (or 0.6% of the total clear-sky absorption) by using these new measurements when compared with calculations applying the widely used MTCKD (Mlawer–Tobin–Clough–Kneizys–Davies) foreign-continuum model.

Fetal programming effects of testosterone on the reward system and behavioral approach tendencies in humans

BACKGROUND: Sex differences are present in many neuropsychiatric conditions that affect emotion and approach-avoidance behavior. One potential mechanism underlying such observations is testosterone in early development. Although much is known about the effects of testosterone in adolescence and adulthood, little is known in humans about how testosterone in fetal development influences later neural sensitivity to valenced facial cues and approach-avoidance behavioral tendencies. METHODS: With functional magnetic resonance imaging we scanned 25 8-11-year-old children while viewing happy, fear, neutral, or scrambled faces. Fetal testosterone (FT) was measured via amniotic fluid sampled between 13 and 20 weeks gestation. Behavioral approach-avoidance tendencies were measured via parental report on the Sensitivity to Punishment and Sensitivity to Rewards questionnaire. RESULTS: Increasing FT predicted enhanced selectivity for positive compared with negatively valenced facial cues in reward-related regions such as caudate, putamen, and nucleus accumbens but not the amygdala. Statistical mediation analyses showed that increasing FT predicts increased behavioral approach tendencies by biasing caudate, putamen, and nucleus accumbens but not amygdala to be more responsive to positive compared with negatively valenced cues. In contrast, FT was not predictive of behavioral avoidance tendencies, either through direct or neurally mediated paths. CONCLUSIONS: This work suggests that testosterone in humans acts as a fetal programming mechanism on the reward system and influences behavioral approach tendencies later in life. As a mechanism influencing atypical development, FT might be important across a range of neuropsychiatric conditions that asymmetrically affect the sexes, the reward system, emotion processing, and approach behavior.

Effect of TAG composition on performance of low saturate shortenings in puff pastry

Four blends formulated with low saturated fatty acid content, with the saturated component rich in stearic acid, were prepared from shea stearin, interesterified shea stearin, fully hardened soybean oil and high oleic sunflower oil in order to study their performance as shortenings in puff pastry products. The blends had a low saturated fatty acid content (30.1 ± 1.1%) compared to butter (65.9%). Saturates in the four blends examined came mainly from SSS, SOS, SSO and SOO. Puff pastry prepared from the blend that contained SOS as the main source of saturates had better properties than the other blends. It was similar to butter in compressibility of the baked product. The β-polymorphic form was present in all blends, although blends containing the highest levels of SSS also showed some β′ crystals.

Exploring unanticipated consequences of strategy amongst stakeholder segments: the case of a European Revenue Service

This article applies FIMIX-PLS segmentation methodology to detect and explore unanticipated reactions to organisational strategy among stakeholder segments. For many large organisations today, the tendency to apply a “one-size-fits-all” strategy to members of a stakeholder population, commonly driven by a desire for simplicity, efficiency and fairness, may actually result in unanticipated consequences amongst specific subgroups within the target population. This study argues that it is critical for organisations to understand the varying and potentially harmful effects of strategic actions across differing, and previously unidentified, segments within a stakeholder population. The case of a European revenue service that currently focuses its strategic actions on building trust and compliant behaviour amongst taxpayers is used as the context for this study. FIMIX-PLS analysis is applied to a sample of 501 individual taxpayers, while a novel PLS-based approach for assessing measurement model invariance that can be applied to both reflective and formative measures is also introduced for the purpose of multi-group comparisons. The findings suggest that individual taxpayers can be split into two equal-sized segments with highly differentiated characteristics and reactions to organisational strategy and communications. Compliant behaviour in the first segment (n = 223), labelled “relationships centred on trust,” is mainly driven through positive service experiences and judgements of competence, while judgements of benevolence lead to the unanticipated reaction of increasing distrust among this group. Conversely, compliant behaviour in the second segment (n = 278), labelled “relationships centred on distrust,” is driven by the reduction of fear and scepticism towards the revenue service, which is achieved through signalling benevolence, reduced enforcement and the lower incidence of negative stories. In this segment, the use of enforcement has the unanticipated and counterproductive effect of ultimately reducing compliant behaviour.

An earth-system prediction initiative for the twenty-first century

The necessity and benefits for establishing the international Earth-system Prediction Initiative (EPI) are discussed by scientists associated with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP), World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP), Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), and natural-hazards and socioeconomic communities. The proposed initiative will provide research and services to accelerate advances in weather, climate, and Earth system prediction and the use of this information by global societies. It will build upon the WMO, the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) and the International Council for Science (ICSU) to coordinate the effort across the weather, climate, Earth system, natural-hazards, and socioeconomic disciplines. It will require (i) advanced high-performance computing facilities, supporting a worldwide network of research and operational modeling centers, and early warning systems; (ii) science, technology, and education projects to enhance knowledge, awareness, and utilization of weather, climate, environmental, and socioeconomic information; (iii) investments in maintaining existing and developing new observational capabilities; and (iv) infrastructure to transition achievements into operational products and services.

Photovoltaic and solar-assisted ground-source heat pump systems

This review investigates the performance of photovoltaic and solar-assisted ground-source heat pumps in which solar heat is transferred to the ground to improve the coefficient of performance. A number of studies indicate that, for systems with adequately sized ground heat exchangers, the effect on system efficiency is small: about 1% improvement if the heat source is photovoltaic, a 1–2% decline if the source is solar thermal. With possible exceptions for systems in which the ground heat exchanger is undersized, or natural recharge from ground water is insufficient, solar thermal energy is better used for domestic hot water than to recharge ground heat. This appears particularly true outside the heating season, as although much of the heat extracted from the ground can be replaced, it seems to have little effect on the coefficient of performance. Any savings in electrical consumption that do result from an improved coefficient can easily be outweighed by an inefficient control system for the circulation pumps.

Enhanced hepatitis C virus genome replication and lipid accumulation mediated by inhibition of AMP-activated protein kinase

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is associated with dysregulation of both lipid and glucose metabolism. As well as contributing to viral replication, these perturbations influence the pathogenesis associated with the virus, including steatosis, insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes. AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) plays a key role in regulation of both lipid and glucose metabolism. We show here that, in cells either infected with HCV or harboring an HCV subgenomic replicon, phosphorylation of AMPK at threonine 172 and concomitant AMPK activity are dramatically reduced. We demonstrate that this effect is mediated by activation of the serine/threonine kinase, protein kinase B, which inhibits AMPK by phosphorylating serine 485. The physiological significance of this inhibition is demonstrated by the observation that pharmacological restoration of AMPK activity not only abrogates the lipid accumulation observed in virus-infected and subgenomic replicon-harboring cells but also efficiently inhibits viral replication. These data demonstrate that inhibition of AMPK is required for HCV replication and that the restoration of AMPK activity may present a target for much needed anti-HCV therapies.

Using the significant dust deposition event on the glaciers of Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains, Russia on 5 May 2009 to develop a method for dating and "provenancing" of desert dust events recorded in snow pack

A significant desert dust deposition event occurred on Mt. Elbrus, Caucasus Mountains, Russia on 5 May 2009, where the deposited dust later appeared as a brown layer in the snow pack. An examination of dust transportation history and analysis of chemical and physical properties of the deposited dust were used to develop a new approach for high-resolution “provenancing” of dust deposition events recorded in snow pack using multiple independent techniques. A combination of SEVIRI red-green-blue composite imagery, MODIS atmospheric optical depth fields derived using the Deep Blue algorithm, air mass trajectories derived with HYSPLIT model and analysis of meteorological data enabled identification of dust source regions with high temporal (hours) and spatial (ca. 100 km) resolution. Dust, deposited on 5 May 2009, originated in the foothills of the Djebel Akhdar in eastern Libya where dust sources were activated by the intrusion of cold air from the Mediterranean Sea and Saharan low pressure system and transported to the Caucasus along the eastern Mediterranean coast, Syria and Turkey. Particles with an average diameter below 8 μm accounted for 90% of the measured particles in the sample with a mean of 3.58 μm, median 2.48 μm. The chemical signature of this long-travelled dust was significantly different from the locally-produced dust and close to that of soils collected in a palaeolake in the source region, in concentrations of hematite. Potential addition of dust from a secondary source in northern Mesopotamia introduced uncertainty in the “provenancing” of dust from this event. Nevertheless, the approach adopted here enables other dust horizons in the snowpack to be linked to specific dust transport events recorded in remote sensing and meteorological data archives.