Antidumping as Strategic Trade Policy Under Asymmetric Information

In the last two decades, trade liberalization under GATT/WTO has been partly offset by an increase in antidumping protection. Economists have argued convincingly that this is partly due to the inclusion of sales below cost in the definition of dumping during the GATT Tokyo Round. The introduction of the cost- based dumping definition gives regulating authorities a better opportunity to choose protection according to their liking. This paper investigates the domestic government's antidumping duty choice in an asymmetric information framework where the foreign firm's cost is observed by the domestic firm, but not by the government. To induce truthful revelation, the government can design a tariff schedule, contingent on firms' cost reports, accompanied by a threat to collect additional information for report verification (i.e., auditing) and, in case misreporting is detected, to set penalty duties. We show that depending on the concrete assumptions, the domestic government may not only be able to extract the true cost information, but also succeeds in implementing the full-information, governmental welfare-maximizing duty. In this case, the antidumping framework within GATT/WTO does not only offer the means to pursue strategic trade policy disguised as fair trade policy, but it also helps overcome the informational problems with regard to correctly determining the optimal strategic trade policy.

Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Policy: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization?

Exchange rate movements affect exports in two ways -- its depreciation and its variability (risk). A depreciation raises exports, but the associated exchange rate risk could offset that positive effect. The present paper investigates the net effect for eight Asian countries using a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate GARCH-M model that simultaneously estimates time varying correlation and exchange rate risk. Depreciation encourages exports, as expected, for most countries, but its contribution to export growth is weak. Exchange rate risk contributes to export growth in Malaysia and the Philippines, leading to positive net effects. Exchange rate risk generates a negative effect for six of the countries, resulting in a negative net effect in Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and a zero net effect in Korea and Thailand. Since the negative effect of exchange rate risk may offset, or even dominate, positive contributions from depreciation, policy makers need to reduce exchange rate fluctuation along with and possibly before efforts to depreciate the currency.

Collective Voluntary Agreements and the Production of Less Polluting Products

Recently, some industries have collectively agreed not to produce models that do not meet an energy efficiency (and hence an environmental) standard. This paper presents a simple model that can be used to examine a voluntary collective agreement to limit or completely eliminate the low efficiency model of a given product (e.g., a low efficiency washing machine). We show that, when there is competition between firms, a collective agreement to limit or even eliminate production of the polluting model can actually increase profits for all firms in the industry. This suggests that a collective agreement of this type might actually be beneficial to firms, while at the same time improving environmental quality. However, the implicit enforcement that comes from the public nature of the commitment is necessary to ensure this outcome. This suggests that, by promoting such agreements, policymakers may be able to achieve substantial environmental gains with relatively little inducement. The impact on social welfare will then depend on whether these gains are sufficiently large to offset consumer losses from reductions in product variety and the associated price increases.

The design and evaluation of a 2D dose verification system for intensity modulated radiotherapy

The usage of intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) treatments necessitates a significant amount of patient-specific quality assurance (QA). This research has investigated the precision and accuracy of Kodak EDR2 film measurements for IMRT verifications, the use of comparisons between 2D dose calculations and measurements to improve treatment plan beam models, and the dosimetric impact of delivery errors. New measurement techniques and software were developed and used clinically at M. D. Anderson Cancer Center. The software implemented two new dose comparison parameters, the 2D normalized agreement test (NAT) and the scalar NAT index. A single-film calibration technique using multileaf collimator (MLC) delivery was developed. EDR2 film's optical density response was found to be sensitive to several factors: radiation time, length of time between exposure and processing, and phantom material. Precision of EDR2 film measurements was found to be better than 1%. For IMRT verification, EDR2 film measurements agreed with ion chamber results to 2%/2mm accuracy for single-beam fluence map verifications and to 5%/2mm for transverse plane measurements of complete plan dose distributions. The same system was used to quantitatively optimize the radiation field offset and MLC transmission beam modeling parameters for Varian MLCs. While scalar dose comparison metrics can work well for optimization purposes, the influence of external parameters on the dose discrepancies must be minimized. The ability of 2D verifications to detect delivery errors was tested with simulated data. The dosimetric characteristics of delivery errors were compared to patient-specific clinical IMRT verifications. For the clinical verifications, the NAT index and percent of pixels failing the gamma index were exponentially distributed and dependent upon the measurement phantom but not the treatment site. Delivery errors affecting all beams in the treatment plan were flagged by the NAT index, although delivery errors impacting only one beam could not be differentiated from routine clinical verification discrepancies. Clinical use of this system will flag outliers, allow physicists to examine their causes, and perhaps improve the level of agreement between radiation dose distribution measurements and calculations. The principles used to design and evaluate this system are extensible to future multidimensional dose measurements and comparisons. ^

Assessing the need and options available for trauma physician funding in Texas

Efforts have been made to provide supplemental funding to emergency departments to offset the costs of uncompensated medical care. But a problem exists within the trauma system in Texas that has largely been overlooked by the state. This project will focus on the lack of funding available to physicians and on-call specialists who contract with hospitals to provide emergency care. ^ A lack of funding and reimbursement for emergency care is directly influencing the number of medical specialists willing to provide emergency treatment in hospitals on a contractual basis. A shortage of emergency physicians has an impact on the public health of all Texans who may need trauma care in a hospital. Specifically, a shortage of emergency physicians can lead to a complete denial of specialty emergency health care, a delay in patient treatment, and increased ambulance diversions. Quality and access barriers to emergency services undoubtedly threaten the stability of the trauma care system in Texas and the health status of its citizens. ^ In 2003, Texas took a significant step towards addressing the issue of uncompensated care provided by the trauma system and passed House Bill 3588, creating the Trauma Facilities and Emergency Medical Services Fund (“the Trauma Fund”). However, the primary shortfall to this legislation is that the Trauma Fund is only available to emergency medical service providers and hospitals. The Trauma Fund does little to help offset the cost incurred by contracting physicians and on-call specialists who provide emergency services to the uninsured. ^ This paper addresses how funding shortages for emergency department physicians negatively impact the trauma care system in Texas and the policy options available to create physician funding to offset the cost of uncompensated trauma care. Ultimately this paper concludes that although creating a new funding stream similar to the actions taken in other states would be a dramatic step towards addressing the problem, the political process in Texas may slow implementation of this option. Consequently, modifying existing legislation, although the weaker of the options, may be more attractive to those looking for immediate action. ^

The impact of Medicare, Medicaid and Schip Extension Act of 2007 (MMSEA) on the long term acute care hospitals

The Long Term Acute Care Hospitals (LTACH), which serve medically complex patients, have grown tremendously in recent years, by expanding the number of Medicare patient admissions and thus increasing Medicare expenditures (Stark 2004). In an attempt to mitigate the rapid growth of the LTACHs and reduce related Medicare expenditures, Congress enacted Section 114 of P.L. 110-173 (§114) of the Medicare, Medicaid and SCHIP Extension Act (MMSEA) in December 29, 2007 to regulate the LTCAHs industry. MMSEA increased the medical necessity reviews for Medicare admissions, imposed a moratorium on new LTCAHs, and allowed the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to recoup Medicare overpayments for unnecessary admissions. ^ This study examines whether MMSEA impacted LTACH admissions, operating margins and efficiency. These objectives were analyzed by comparing LTACH data for 2008 (post MMSEA) and data for 2006-2007 (pre-MMSEA). Secondary data were utilized from the American Hospital Association (AHA) database and the American Hospital Directory (AHD).^ This is a longitudinal retrospective study with a total sample of 55 LTACHs, selected from 396 LTACHs facilities that were fully operational during the study period of 2006-2008. The results of the research found no statistically significant change in total Medicare admissions; instead there was a small but not statistically significant reduction of 5% in Medicare admissions for 2008 in comparison to those for 2006. A statistically significant decrease in mean operating margins was confirmed between the years 2006 and 2008. The LTACHs' Technical Efficiency (TE), as computed by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), showed significant decrease in efficiency over the same period. Thirteen of the 55 LTACHs in the sample (24%) in 2006 were calculated as “efficient” utilizing the DEA analysis. This dropped to 13% (7/55) in 2008. Longitudinally, the decrease in efficiency using the DEA extension technique (Malmquist Index or MI) indicated a deterioration of 10% in efficiency over the same period. Interestingly, however, when the sample was stratified into high efficient versus low efficient subgroups (approximately 25% in each group), a comparison of the MIs suggested a significant improvement in Efficiency Change (EC) for the least efficient (MI 0.92022) and reduction in efficiency for the most efficient LTACHs (MI = 1.38761) over same period. While a reduction in efficiency for the most efficient is unexpected, it is not particularly surprising, since efficiency measure can vary over time. An improvement in efficiency, however, for the least efficient should be expected as those LTACHs begin to manage expenses (and controllable resources) more carefully to offset the payment/reimbursement pressures on their margins from MMSEA.^

Exploring the use of pharmaceutical patient assistance programs as an option to improve access to and affordability of prescription drugs

Background. Pharmaceutical-sponsored patient assistance programs (PAPs) are charity programs that provide free or reduced-priced medications to eligible patients. PAPs have the potential to improve prescription drug accessibility for patients but currently there is limited information about their use and effectiveness. ^ Objectives and methods. This dissertation described the use of PAPs in the U.S. through the conduct of two studies: (1) a systematic review of primary studies of PAPs from commercially-published and “grey” literature sources; and (2) a retrospective, cross-sectional study of cancer patients' use of PAPs at a tertiary care cancer outpatient center. ^ Results. (1) The systematic review identified 33 studies: 15 evaluated the impact of PAP enrollment assistance programs on patient healthcare outcomes; 7 assessed institutional costs of providing enrollment assistance; 7 surveyed stakeholders; 4 examined other aspects. Standardized mean differences calculated for disease indicator outcomes (most of which were single group, pre-posttest designs) showed significant decreases in glycemic and lipid control, and inconsistent results for blood pressure. Grey literature abstracts reported insufficient statistics for calculations. Study heterogeneity made weighted summary estimates inappropriate. Economic analyses indicated positive financial benefits to institutions providing enrollment assistance (cost) compared to the wholesale value of the medications provided (benefit); analyses did not value health outcomes. Mean quality of reporting scores were higher for observational studies in commercially-published articles versus full text, grey literature reports. (2) The cross-sectional study found that PAP outpatients were significantly more likely to be uninsured, indigent, and < 65 years old than non-PAP patients. Nearly all non-PAP and PAP prescriptions were for non-cancer conditions, either for co-morbidities (e.g., hypertension) or the management of treatment side effects (e.g., pain). Oral chemotherapies from PAPs were significantly more likely to be for breast versus other cancers, and be a newer, targeted versus traditional chemotherapy.^ Conclusions. In outpatient settings, PAP enrollment assistance plus additional medication services (e.g., counseling, reminders, and free samples) is associated with improved disease indicators for patients. Healthcare institutions, including cancer centers, can offset financial losses from uncompensated drug costs and recoup costs invested in enrollment assistance programs by procuring free PAP medications. Cancer patients who are indigent and uninsured may be able to access more outpatient medications for their supportive care needs through PAPs, than for cancer treatment options like oral chemotherapies. Because of the selective availability of drugs through PAPs, there may be more options for newer, oral, targeted chemotherapies for the treatment breast cancer versus other for other cancers.^

COSTS AND EFFECTS OF ARKANSAS' LONG-TERM CARE DEMONSTRATION PROJECT (MEDICAID, CHANELLING, COMMUNITY ASSESSMENT)

The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of the Arkansas Long-Term Care Demonstration Project upon Arkansas' Medicaid expenditures and upon the clients it serves. A Retrospective Medicaid expenditure study component used analyses of variance techniques to test for the Project's effects upon aggregated expenditures for 28 demonstration and control counties representing 25 percent of the State's population over four years, 1979-1982.^ A second approach to the study question utilized a 1982 prospective sample of 458 demonstration and control clients from the same 28 counties. The disability level or need for care of each patient was established a priori. The extent to which an individual's variation in Medicaid utilization and costs was explained by patient need, presence or absence of the channeling project's placement decision or some other patient characteristic was examined by multiple regression analysis. Long-term and acute care Medicaid, Medicare, third party, self-pay and the grand total of all Medicaid claims were analyzed for project effects and explanatory relationships.^ The main project effect was to increase personal care costs without reducing nursing home or acute care costs (Prospective Study). Expansion of clients appeared to occur in personal care (Prospective Study) and minimum care nursing home (Retrospective Study) for the project areas. Cost-shifting between Medicaid and Medicare in the project areas and two different patterns of utilization in the North and South projects tended to offset each other such that no differences in total costs between the project areas and demonstration areas occurred. The project was significant ((beta) = .22, p < .001) only for personal care costs. The explanatory power of this personal care regression model (R('2) = .36) was comparable to other reported health services utilization models. Other variables (Medicare buy-in, level of disability, Social Security Supplemental Income (SSI), net monthly income, North/South areas and age) explained more variation in the other twelve cost regression models. ^

Seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus infection in Texas

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common cause of respiratory infection in infants and children that can result in bronchiolitis or pneumonia. Each year in the United States, it causes up to 400 deaths and 125,000 hospitalizations among children less than one year of age. RSV is transmitted by direct or close contact with contaminated secretions, which may involve droplets and fomites. Monthly administration of a monoclonal RSV antibody, palivizumab (Synagis™, MedImmune, Gaithersburg, MD), in premature infants, infants with chronic lung disease, or congenital heart disease has been shown to significantly reduce the risk of severe RSV infection. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS) is a laboratory based passive reporting system that collects state, regional, and national RSV data. The CDC defines the RSV season onset as “the first of 2 consecutive weeks during which the mean percentage of specimens testing positive for RSV antigen is 10%.” RSV season offset is defined as the last of 2 consecutive weeks during which the percentage of positive specimens is less than or equal to 10%. Annual RSV epidemics generally occur during the winter and early spring months, but the RSV season is known to vary by national regions. Precise delineation of the RSV epidemiology by region could maximize protection from RSV and minimize the cost of RSV immune prophylaxis. ^ The purpose of this thesis is to define the RSV season in Texas over time; compare the RSV season of the state of Texas and its regions with the national norms; and to compare RSV seasonality between the various regions in Texas. ^ This study was a retrospective analysis of data reported to NREVSS to evaluate potential disparities in the onset weeks, offset weeks, and duration of the annual RSV season in Texas. Data were collected from 70 reporting sites, and includes information from the 2004–2005 to 2009–2010 RSV seasons. ^ The observed median onset (week 44) and offset week (week 8) for the Texas were consistent with national estimates for the South. Regional estimates and statistical analysis suggested that the RSV season in Texas would be better represented by regions. Regional seasonal comparisons revealed considerable variation in season offset and duration between many of the geographic regions within Texas. This trend should be studied further.^

Targeting AKT/mTOR Signaling Pathways During Murine Skin Tumor Promotion and the Impact of Dietary Energy Balance Manipulation

The prevalence of obesity has continued to rise over the last several decades in the United States lending to overall increases in risk for chronic diseases including many types of cancer. In contrast, reduction in energy consumption via calorie restriction (CR) has been shown to be a potent inhibitor of carcinogenesis across a broad range of species and tumor types. Previous data has demonstrated differential signaling through Akt and mTOR via the IGF-1R and other growth factor receptors across the diet-induced obesity (DIO)/CR spectrum. Furthermore, mTORC1 is known to be regulated directly via nutrient availability, supporting its role in the link between epithelial carcinogenesis and diet-induced obesity. In an effort to better understand the importance of mTORC1 in the context of both positive and negative energy balance during epithelial carcinogenesis, we have employed the use of specific pharmacological inhibitors, rapamycin (mTORC1 inhibitor) and metformin (AMPK activator) to target mTORC1 or various components of this pathway during skin tumor promotion. Two-stage skin carcinogenesis studies demonstrated that mTORC1 inhibition via rapamycin, metformin or combination treatments greatly inhibited skin tumor development in normal, overweight and obese mice. Furthermore, mechanisms by which these chemopreventive agents may be exerting their anti-tumor effects were explored. In addition, the effect of these compounds on the epidermal proliferative response was analyzed and drastic decreases in epidermal hyperproliferation and hyperplasia were found. Rapamycin also inhibited dermal inflammatory cell infiltration in a dose-dependent manner. Both compounds also blocked or attenuated TPA-induced signaling through epidermal mTORC1 as well as several downstream targets. In addition, inhibition of this pathway by metformin appeared to be, at least in part, dependent on AMPK activation in the skin. Overall, the data indicate that pharmacological strategies targeting this pathway offset the tumor-enhancing effects of DIO and may serve as possible CR mimetics. They suggest that mTORC1 contributes significantly to the process of skin tumor promotion, specifically during dietary energy balance effects. Exploiting the mechanistic information underlying dietary energy balance responsive pathways will help translate decades of research into effective strategies for prevention of epithelial carcinogenesis.