Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change

Abstract The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17 %. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9 % by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6 % in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50 % to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk.

North American Jewish Students Appeal records, undated, 1962, 1964-1996 (bulk 1971-1995)

The records of the North American Jewish Students Appeal (NAJSA or APPEAL) contains documents on two levels of concern: those documents dealing with the NAJSA as a student-run organization promoting Jewish identity among college-aged youth; and those documents dealing with the APPEAL as a fundraising organization for several well-known student constituent organizations. The Constituents were: the Jewish Student Press Service, Lights in Action, the North American Jewish Students Network, the Progressive Zionist Caucus, Response: A Contemporary Jewish Review, Yavneh Religious Students Organization, and Yugntruf Youth for Yiddish. Documents include correspondence, financial records, minutes, press releases, information on grants awarded to student organizations for programming and publishing, student journals, and newspapers, photographs, and ephemera.

Reconfiguring agriculture through the relocation of production systems for water, environment and food security under climate change

The prospect of climate change has revived both fears of food insecurity and its corollary, market opportunities for agricultural production. In Australia, with its long history of state-sponsored agricultural development, there is renewed interest in the agricultural development of tropical and sub-tropical northern regions. Climate projections suggest that there will be less water available to the main irrigation systems of the eastern central and southern regions of Australia, while net rainfall could be sustained or even increase in the northern areas. Hence, there could be more intensive use of northern agricultural areas, with the relocation of some production of economically important commodities such as vegetables, rice and cotton. The problem is that the expansion of cropping in northern Australia has been constrained by agronomic and economic considerations. The present paper examines the economics, at both farm and regional level, of relocating some cotton production from the east-central irrigation areas to the north where there is an existing irrigation scheme together with some industry and individual interest in such relocation. Integrated modelling and expert knowledge are used to examine this example of prospective climate change adaptation. Farm-level simulations show that without adaptation, overall gross margins will decrease under a combination of climate change and reduction in water availability. A dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is used to explore two scenarios of relocating cotton production from south east Queensland, to sugar-dominated areas in northern Queensland. Overall, an increase in real economic output and real income was realized when some cotton production was relocated to sugar cane fallow land/new land. There were, however, large negative effects on regional economies where cotton production displaced sugar cane. It is concluded that even excluding the agronomic uncertainties, which are not examined here, there is unlikely to be significant market-driven relocation of cotton production.

Programming rumen bacterial communities in newborn Merino lambs

Establishment of the rumen microbiome can be affected by both early-life dietary measures and rumen microbial inoculation. This study used a 2 × 3 factorial design to evaluate the effects of inclusion of dietary fat type and the effects of rumen inoculum from different sources on ruminal bacterial communities present in early stages of the lambs’ life. Two different diets were fed ad libitum to 36 pregnant ewes (and their lambs) from 1 month pre-lambing until weaning. Diets consisted of chaffed lucerne and cereal hay and 4% molasses, with either 4% distilled coconut oil (CO) provided as a source of rumen-active fat or 4% Megalac® provided as a source of rumen-protected fat (PF). One of three inoculums was introduced orally to all lambs, being either (1) rumen fluid from donor ewes fed the PF diet; (2) rumen fluid from donor ewes fed CO; or (3) a control treatment of MilliQ-water. After weaning at 3 months of age, each of the six lamb treatment groups were grazed in spatially separated paddocks. Rumen bacterial populations of ewes and lambs were characterised using 454 amplicon pyrosequencing of the V3/V4 regions of the 16S rRNA gene. Species richness and biodiversity of the bacterial communities were found to be affected by the diet in ewes and lambs and by inoculation treatment of the lambs. Principal coordinate analysis and analysis of similarity (ANOSIM) showed between diet differences in bacterial community groups existed in ewes and differential bacterial clusters occurred in lambs due to both diet and neonatal inoculation. Diet and rumen inoculation acted together to clearly differentiate the bacterial communities through to weaning, however the microbiome effects of these initial early life interventions diminished with time so that rumen bacterial communities showed greater similarity 2 months after weaning. These results demonstrate that ruminal bacterial communities of newborn lambs can be altered by modifying the diet of their mothers. Moreover, the rumen microbiome of lambs can be changed by diet while they are suckling or by inoculating their rumen, and resulting changes in the rumen bacterial microbiome can persist beyond weaning.

Topological stability through tame retractions

A smooth map is said to be stable if small perturbations of the map only differ from the original one by a smooth change of coordinates. Smoothly stable maps are generic among the proper maps between given source and target manifolds when the source and target dimensions belong to the so-called nice dimensions, but outside this range of dimensions, smooth maps cannot generally be approximated by stable maps. This leads to the definition of topologically stable maps, where the smooth coordinate changes are replaced with homeomorphisms. The topologically stable maps are generic among proper maps for any dimensions of source and target. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate methods for proving topological stability by constructing extremely tame (E-tame) retractions onto the map in question from one of its smoothly stable unfoldings. In particular, we investigate how to use E-tame retractions from stable unfoldings to find topologically ministable unfoldings for certain weighted homogeneous maps or germs. Our first results are concerned with the construction of E-tame retractions and their relation to topological stability. We study how to construct the E-tame retractions from partial or local information, and these results form our toolbox for the main constructions. In the next chapter we study the group of right-left equivalences leaving a given multigerm f invariant, and show that when the multigerm is finitely determined, the group has a maximal compact subgroup and that the corresponding quotient is contractible. This means, essentially, that the group can be replaced with a compact Lie group of symmetries without much loss of information. We also show how to split the group into a product whose components only depend on the monogerm components of f. In the final chapter we investigate representatives of the E- and Z-series of singularities, discuss their instability and use our tools to construct E-tame retractions for some of them. The construction is based on describing the geometry of the set of points where the map is not smoothly stable, discovering that by using induction and our constructional tools, we already know how to construct local E-tame retractions along the set. The local solutions can then be glued together using our knowledge about the symmetry group of the local germs. We also discuss how to generalize our method to the whole E- and Z- series.

The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in Northeast Australia

Characterization of drought environment types (ETs) has proven useful for breeding crops for drought-prone regions. Here we consider how changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations will affect drought ET frequencies in sorghum and wheat systems of Northeast Australia. We also modify APSIM (the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to incorporate extreme heat effects on grain number and weight, and then evaluate changes in the occurrence of heat-induced yield losses of more than 10, as well as the co-occurrence of drought and heat. More than six million simulations spanning representative locations, soil types, management systems, and 33 climate projections led to three key findings. First, the projected frequency of drought decreased slightly for most climate projections for both sorghum and wheat, but for different reasons. In sorghum, warming exacerbated drought stresses by raising the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and reducing transpiration efficiency (TE), but an increase in TE due to elevated CO2 more than offset these effects. In wheat, warming reduced drought stress during spring by hastening development through winter and reducing exposure to terminal drought. Elevated CO2 increased TE but also raised radiation use efficiency and overall growth rates and water use, thereby offsetting much of the drought reduction from warming. Second, adding explicit effects of heat on grain number and grain size often switched projected yield impacts from positive to negative. Finally, although average yield losses associated with drought will remain generally higher than for heat stress for the next half century, the relative importance of heat is steadily growing. This trend, as well as the likely high degree of genetic variability in heat tolerance, suggests that more emphasis on heat tolerance is warranted in breeding programs. At the same time, work on drought tolerance should continue with an emphasis on drought that co-occurs with extreme heat. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The study of genetic diversity and population structure of the Korean fleshy shrimp, Fenneropenaeus chinensis, using newly developed microsatellite markers

The fleshy shrimp, Fenneropenaeus chinensis, is the family of Penaeidae and one of the most economically important marine culture species in Korea. However, its genetic characteristics have never been studied. In this study, a total of 240 wild F. chinensis individuals were collected from four locations as follows: Narodo (NRD, n = 60), Beopseongpo (BSP, n = 60), Chaesukpo (CSP, n = 60), and Cheonsuman (CSM, n = 60). Genetic variability and the relationships among four wild F. chinensis populations were analyzed using 13 newly developed microsatellite loci. Relatively high levels of genetic variability (mean allelic richness = 16.87; mean heterozygosity = 0.845) were found among localities. Among the 52 population loci, 13 showed significant deviation from the Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. Neighbor-joining, principal coordinate, and molecular variance analyses revealed the presence of three subpopulations (NRD, CSM, BSP and CSP), which was consistent with clustering based on genetic distance. The mean observed heterozygosity values of the NRD, CSM, BSP, and CSP populations were 0.724, 0.821, 0.814, and 0.785 over all loci, respectively. These genetic variability and differentiation results of the four wild populations can be applied for future genetic improvement using selective breeding and to design suitable management guidelines for Korean F. chinensis culture.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The shifting influence of drought and heat stress for crops in Northeast Australia

Characterization of drought environment types (ETs) has proven useful for breeding crops for drought-prone regions. Here we consider how changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations will affect drought ET frequencies in sorghum and wheat systems of Northeast Australia. We also modify APSIM (the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) to incorporate extreme heat effects on grain number and weight, and then evaluate changes in the occurrence of heat-induced yield losses of more than 10%, as well as the co-occurrence of drought and heat. More than six million simulations spanning representative locations, soil types, management systems, and 33 climate projections led to three key findings. First, the projected frequency of drought decreased slightly for most climate projections for both sorghum and wheat, but for different reasons. In sorghum, warming exacerbated drought stresses by raising the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit and reducing transpiration efficiency (TE), but an increase in TE due to elevated CO2 more than offset these effects. In wheat, warming reduced drought stress during spring by hastening development through winter and reducing exposure to terminal drought. Elevated CO2 increased TE but also raised radiation use efficiency and overall growth rates and water use, thereby offsetting much of the drought reduction from warming. Second, adding explicit effects of heat on grain number and grain size often switched projected yield impacts from positive to negative. Finally, although average yield losses associated with drought will remain generally higher than for heat stress for the next half century, the relative importance of heat is steadily growing. This trend, as well as the likely high degree of genetic variability in heat tolerance, suggests that more emphasis on heat tolerance is warranted in breeding programs. At the same time, work on drought tolerance should continue with an emphasis on drought that co-occurs with extreme heat. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Molecular vibrations and conformation of primary dithiocarbamate ester. Infrared and NMR studies on S-methyl dithiocarbamate

The i.r. spectra of a primary dithiocarbamate ester namely, S-methyl dithiocarbamate (SMDTC) and its N-dideuterated compound have been measured between 4000 and 30 cm−1. Spectra in solution and at liquid nitrogen temperature have also been obtained. Assignment of all the fundamentals has been proposed and supported from a full normal coordinate analysis. The band assignments for SMDTC have been compared with those of related molecules and the characteristic bands of primary thioamides are derived. Conformational flexibility of SMDTC has been examined by i.r. and proton NMR spectroscopy. The hindered rotation around the C---N bond has been studied by a complete line shape analysis. The magnitude of ---NH2 and ---CH3 torsional barriers is also estimated from vibrational frequencies and force constants.

High-throughput Phenotyping of Wheat Seminal Root Traits in a Breeding Context

Water availability is a major limiting factor for wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in rain-fed agricultural systems worldwide. Root architecture has important functional implications for the timing and extent of soil water extraction, yet selection for root traits in wheat breeding programs has been largely limited due to the lack of suitable phenotyping methods. The aim of this research was to develop a low-cost high-throughput phenotyping method to facilitate selection for desirable root traits. We developed a method to assess ‘seminal root angle’ and ‘seminal root number’ in seedlings – two proxy traits associated to root architecture of mature wheat plants (1). The method involves measuring the angle between the first pair of seminal roots and the number of roots of wheat seedlings grown in transparent pots (Figure 1). Images captured at 5 to 10 days after sowing are analyzed to calculate seminal root angle and number. Performing this technique under “speed breeding” conditions (plants grown at a density of 600 plants / m2, under controlled temperature and constant light) allows the selection based on the desired root traits of up to 5 consecutive generations within 12 months. Alternatively, when focusing only on germplasm screening, up to 52 successive phenotypic assays can be conducted within 12 months. This approach has been shown to be highly reproducible, it requires little resource (time, space, and labour) and can be used to rapidly enrich breeding populations with desirable alleles for narrow root angle and a high number of seminal roots to indirectly target the selection of deeper root system with higher branching at depth. Such root characteristics are highly desirable in wheat to cope with the climate model projections, especially in summer rainfall dominant regions including some Australian, Indian, South American and African cropping regions, where winter crops mainly rely on deep stored water.

Climate savvy grazing (Developing improved grazing and related practices to assist beef production enterprises across northern Australia to adapt to a changing and more variable climate)

There is uncertainty over the potential changes to rainfall across northern Australia under climate change. Since rainfall is a key driver of pasture growth, cattle numbers and the resulting animal productivity and beef business profitability, the ability to anticipate possible management strategies within such uncertainty is crucial. The Climate Savvy Grazing project used existing research, expert knowledge and computer modelling to explore the best-bet management strategies within best, median and worse-case future climate scenarios. All three scenarios indicated changes to the environment and resources upon which the grazing industry of northern Australia depends. Well-adapted management strategies under a changing climate are very similar to best practice within current climatic conditions. Maintaining good land condition builds resource resilience, maximises opportunities under higher rainfall years and reduces the risk of degradation during drought and failed wet seasons. Matching stocking rate to the safe long-term carrying capacity of the land is essential; reducing stock numbers in response to poor seasons and conservatively increasing stock numbers in response to better seasons generally improves profitability and maintains land in good condition. Spelling over the summer growing season will improve land condition under a changing climate as it does under current conditions. Six regions were included within the project. Of these, the Victoria River District in the Northern Territory, Gulf country of Queensland and the Kimberley region of Western Australia had projections of similar or higher than current rainfall and the potential for carrying capacity to increase. The Alice Springs, Maranoa-Balonne and Fitzroy regions had projections of generally drying conditions and the greatest risk of reduced pasture growth and carrying capacity. Encouraging producers to consider and act on the risks, opportunities and management options inherent in climate change was a key goal of the project. More than 60,000 beef producers, advisors and stakeholders are now more aware of the management strategies which build resource resilience, and that resilience helps buffer against the effects of variable and changing climatic conditions. Over 700 producers have stated they have improved confidence, skills and knowledge to attempt new practices to build resilience. During the course of the project, more than 165 beef producers reported they have implemented changes to build resource and business resilience.

Ambidentate coordination of isonitrosoacetylacetone imines in their nickel(II) and palladium(II) complexes

Nickel(I1) and palladium(I1) complexes of the types Ni(R-IAI)(IAI'), Pd(IAI)(IAI'), and Pd(R-IAI), , where IAI and IAI' represent isonitrosoacetylacetone imine and R-IAI represents its Aralkyl derivative, have been prepared. The molar conductance, molecular weight, magnetic moment, and ir, pmr, and electronic spectra of these com- plexes have been studied. It is suggested that the isonitroso group of R-IAI coordinates through the nitrogen and that of IAI' thiough the oxygen in Ni(R-IAI)(IAI'). In Pd(R-IAI), the isonitroso groups of both ligands coordinate through nitrogen while Pd(IAI)(IAI') has a structure similar to that of Ni(R-IAI)(IAI'). The amine- exchange reactions of nickel(I1) and palladium(I1) complexes are discussed and compared on the basis of their structures.

Vibrational spectra of hydrazine carbothioamide and its 15N- and D-labelled species

Raman and infrared spectra of hydrazine carbothioamide (HCTA) and its three 15N-labelled molecules (H2N NH CS15NH2, H2 15N15NHCSNH2 and H2 15N15NHCS15NH2) and their deuterated compounds have been obtained. A complete normal coordinate analysis of HCTA has been made and revised assignments are presented. The factor group splittings of HCTA have been interpreted.