An econometric analysis of international tourism demand in Hong Kong : a cointegration and error correction approach

The purpose of this study is to develop econometric models to better understand the economic factors affecting inbound tourist flows from each of six origin countries that contribute to Hong Kong’s international tourism demand. To this end, we test alternative cointegration and error correction approaches to examine the economic determinants of tourist flows to Hong Kong, and to produce accurate econometric forecasts of inbound tourism demand. Our empirical findings show that permanent income is the most significant determinant of tourism demand in all models. The variables of own price, weighted substitute prices, trade volume, the share price index (as an indicator of changes in wealth in origin countries), and a dummy variable representing the Beijing incident (1989) are also found to be important determinants for some origin countries. The average long-run income and own price elasticity was measured at 2.66 and – 1.02, respectively. It was hypothesised that permanent income is a better explanatory variable of long-haul tourism demand than current income. A novel approach (grid search process) has been used to empirically derive the weights to be attached to the lagged income variable for estimating permanent income. The results indicate that permanent income, estimated with empirically determined relatively small weighting factors, was capable of producing better results than the current income variable in explaining long-haul tourism demand. This finding suggests that the use of current income in previous empirical tourism demand studies may have produced inaccurate results. The share price index, as a measure of wealth, was also found to be significant in two models. Studies of tourism demand rarely include wealth as an explanatory forecasting long-haul tourism demand. However, finding a satisfactory proxy for wealth common to different countries is problematic. This study indicates with the ECM (Error Correction Models) based on the Engle-Granger (1987) approach produce more accurate forecasts than ECM based on Pesaran and Shin (1998) and Johansen (1988, 1991, 1995) approaches for all of the long-haul markets and Japan. Overall, ECM produce better forecasts than the OLS, ARIMA and NAÏVE models, indicating the superiority of the application of a cointegration approach for tourism demand forecasting. The results show that permanent income is the most important explanatory variable for tourism demand from all countries but there are substantial variations between countries with the long-run elasticity ranging between 1.1 for the U.S. and 5.3 for U.K. Price is the next most important variable with the long-run elasticities ranging between -0.8 for Japan and -1.3 for Germany and short-run elasticities ranging between – 0.14 for Germany and -0.7 for Taiwan. The fastest growing market is Mainland China. The findings have implications for policies and strategies on investment, marketing promotion and pricing.

Antecedents and consequences of new product development and international new product rollout timeliness:an examination of mediating and moderating influences

The study examined the relationships between antecedents, timeliness in NPD and INPR, and consequences. A conceptual framework was tested using 232 new products from South Korean firms. The hypothesized relationships among the constructs in the model were evaluated by multiple regression and hierarchal regression analyses using SPSS 12 as well as by structural equation modelling (SEM) using SIMPLIS LISREL. In addition, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was carried out using SIMPLIS LISREL. In the direct relationships, cross-functional linkages and marketing synergy exhibited a statistically significant effect on NPD timeliness. The results also supported the influences of the HQ-subsidiary/agent relationship and NPD timeliness on INPR timeliness as well as INPR timeliness on performance. In the mediating effect tests, marketing proficiency significantly accounts for the relationships between cross-functional linkages and NPD timeliness, between marketing synergy and NPD timeliness, and between the HQ-subsidiary/agent relationship and INPR timeliness. Technical proficiency also mediates the effect of the HQ-subsidiary/agent relationship on INPR timeliness. The influence of NPD timeliness on new product performance in target markets is attributed to INPR timeliness. As for the results of the external environmentals and standardization influences, competitive intensity moderates the relationship between NPD timeliness and new product performance. Technology change also moderates the relationship between cross-functional linkages and NPD timeliness and between timeliness in NPD and INPR and performance. Standardization has a moderating role on the relationship between NPD timeliness and INPR timeliness. This study presents the answers to research questions which concern what factors are predictors of criterion variables, how antecedents influence timeliness in NPD and INPR and when the direct relationships in the INPR process are strengthened.

Beyond securitisation : Western Mediterranean international relations from a security perspective 1989-2002

Following the end of the Cold War and the ensuing changes to the international landscape, thinking about security has tended to become more discursive and interpretative in nature. What counts as security has increasingly derived from security discourses (that is, 'securitisation') and uncertainty about the multi-faceted future facing various countries and regions. Within this post-Cold War discourse, the Western Mediterranean has emerged as a region fraught with latent and manifest threats in the economic, political, societal and military sectors. Improved access to EU markets for Maghrebi exports; the security of energy supplies to the EU from Algeria and Libya; lack of democracy and the advance of political Islam; the flow of northward migration and worries about law and order in France, Italy and Spain; the growth in military expenditure and weapons proliferation in the Maghreb; all have been central to the securitisation agenda. However, this agenda has often lacked credibility especially when inter-linkages have purportedly been established between economic underdevelopment and political instability, between the advance of political Islam and the threat to energy supplies, or between immigration and the threat to national identity. Such inter-sectoral linkages distract from the credibility of those 'securitisation instances' which correspond to reality; the former linkages have often been exploited by extremist politicians in south-west European countries as well as by regimes in the Maghreb to advance their respective interests. Thus, securitisation may defeat its main purpose; it may generate responses out of keeping with the aims proclaimed at the outset, aims centred on the countering of real threats and the ensuring of greater stability.

Moving towards premium e-grocery management:multi-products sourcing capacity logistic and geodemographic marketing in emerging markets

CD

Stock market efficiency before and after a financial liberalisation reform:do breaks in volatility dynamics matter?

This article focuses on the deviations from normality of stock returns before and after a financial liberalisation reform, and shows the extent to which inference based on statistical measures of stock market efficiency can be affected by not controlling for breaks. Drawing from recent advances in the econometrics of structural change, it compares the distribution of the returns of five East Asian emerging markets when breaks in the mean and variance are either (i) imposed using certain official liberalisation dates or (ii) detected non-parametrically using a data-driven procedure. The results suggest that measuring deviations from normality of stock returns with no provision for potentially existing breaks incorporates substantial bias. This is likely to severely affect any inference based on the corresponding descriptive or test statistics.

Changing consumer markets and marketing in China

China's enormous population and rapidly increasing consumer spending are attractive to many multinational corporations (MNCs) to supply products to the Chinese markets. Yet MNCs continue to struggle to find ways to serve this diverse and culturally unique market. This article reviews and integrates existing knowledge on Chinese consumers' responses to marketing efforts, and specifies and empirically tests several propositions. Chinese consumers are found to have higher brand consciousness, brand loyalty, lower price sensitivity for visible goods, and to be less responsive to sales promotions compared to Western consumers. We also find indications that the influence of face considerations (i.e., prestige earned in a social network) cause Chinese consumers to have higher emphasis on prestige in their channel choices and advertisement evaluations than Western consumers. By outlining these implications, our study can help MNCs better understand how Chinese consumers behave and that understanding can help MNCs adapt their marketing efforts.

International Human Resource Management in the Indian context

Introduction to "India Special Issue". The last two decades have seen several critical developments, such as globalization; liberalization of economies around the world; the growing economic significance of emerging markets; and the ever increasing movement of people around the world. Ironically, there is an obvious dearth of IHRM research and related publications on emerging markets. This special issue is designed to partially fill this space.

International human resource management

Over the last two decades, international human resource management (IHRM) has evolved into an important field of research, teaching and practice. Until recently the focus of IHRM was on how to best manage human resources (HRs) in the multinational enterprise; however, IHRM has now evolved to incorporate two more perspectives, cross-cultural HRM and comparative HRM. Significant developments are taking place in the corporate world which have serious implications for IHRM. These include globalization, increasing foreign direct investments into emerging markets, growing intensity of cross-border alliances, growth of multinationals from emerging markets (such as China and India), increasing movement of people around the globe and an increasing trend in business process outsourcing to new economies. This emerging global economic scenario is creating immense opportunities for IHRM students and researchers. International Human Resource Management brings together articles which highlight the historical evolution of IHRM, discuss the contemporary issues and make projections for further developments in the field. The articles have been selected and arranged into sections in a way to help the reader better understand the developments in the field from different perspectives.

Introducing International Accounting Standards to an emerging capital market:Relative familiarity and language effect in Egypt

The purpose of this study is to assess the effect of relative familiarity and language accessibility on the International Accounting Standards (IASs) disclosures when IASs are first introduced in an emerging capital market. The study focuses on the annual reports of listed non-financial companies in Egypt when IASs were first introduced. The method used applies a disclosure index measurement to a sample of listed company annual reports and evaluates relative compliance with IASs in relation to corporate characteristics. The results show that for relatively less familiar requirements of IASs, the extent of compliance is related to the type of audit firm used and to the presence of a specific statement of compliance with IASs. A lower degree of compliance with less familiar IASs disclosure is observed consistently across a range of company characteristics. Consideration of agency theory and capital need theory would lead to prior expectation of a distinction in disclosure practices between different categories of companies. The results were, therefore, counterintuitive to expectations where the regulations were unfamiliar or not available in the native language, indicating that new variables have to be considered and additional theoretical explanations have to be found in future disclosure studies on emerging capital markets. © 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Globalisation, markets and healthcare policy:redrawing the patient as consumer

Although the last two decades have seen the healthcare systems of most developed countries face pressure for major reform, the impact of this reform on the relationship between empowerment, consumerism and citizen’s rights has received limited research attention. Globalisation, Markets and Healthcare Policy sets out to redress this imbalance. This book explores the extent to which globalisation and commercialisation relate to current and emerging health policies. It also looks at the implications for citizens, patients and social rights, as well as how policy making interacts with the interests of global and European trade and economic policies. Topics discussed include: •How the impact of globalisation on health systems is apparent in the influence of international actors and European policies. •How the impact of globalisation is mediated by national priorities and policies and is therefore reflected in diverse influences. •How commercialisation of health is presented as benefiting citizens and patients but has the potential to undermine the aims and values inherent in health systems. •How the role of citizens' interests, social rights, patient’s rights and priorities of patient and public involvement need to be separated from commercialisation, choice and consumerism in health care. Essential reading for policy makers and students of public policy, politics, law and health services, Globalisation, Markets and Healthcare Policy will also appeal to those interested in patient involvement international healthcare, international relations, trans-national organisations and the EU.

Bid-ask spread dynamics in foreign exchange markets

The aim of this paper is to examine the short term dynamics of foreign exchange rate spreads. Using a vector autoregressive model (VAR) we show that most of the variation in the spread comes from the long run dependencies between past and future spreads rather than being caused by changes in inventory, adverse selection, cost of carry or order processing costs. We apply the Integrated Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) algorithm of Inclan and Tiao (1994) to discover how often spread volatility changes. We find that spread volatility shifts are relatively uncommon and shifts in one currency spread tend not to spillover to other currency spreads. © 2013.

Market risk reporting by the world's top banks:evidence on the diversity of reporting practice and the implications for international accounting harmonisation

The increasing adoption of international accounting standards and global convergence of accounting regulations is frequently heralded as serving to reduce diversity in financial reporting practice. In a process said to be driven in large part by the interests of international business and global financial markets, one might expect the greatest degree of convergence to be found amongst the world’s largest multinational financial corporations. This paper challenges such claims and presumptions. Its content analysis of longitudinal data for the period 2000-2006 reveals substantial, on going diversity in the market risk disclosure practices, both numerical and narrative, of the world’s top-25 banks. The significance of such findings is reinforced by the sheer scale of the banking sector’s risk exposures that have been subsequently revealed in the current global financial crisis. The variations in disclosure practices documented in the paper apply both across and within national boundaries, leading to a firm conclusion that, at least in terms of market risk reporting, progress towards international harmonisation remains rather more apparent than real.

A diversity dilemma in evolutionary markets

Markets are useful mechanisms for performing resource al- location in fully decentralised computational and other systems, since they can possess a range of desirable properties, such as efficiency, decentralisation, robustness and scalability. In this paper we investigate the behaviour of co-evolving evolutionary market agents as adaptive offer generators for sellers in a multi-attribute posted-offer market. We demonstrate that the evolutionary approach enables sellers to automatically position themselves in market niches, created by heterogeneous buyers. We find that a trade-off exists for the evolutionary sellers between maintaining high population diversity to facilitate movement between niches and low diversity to exploit the current niche and maximise cumulative payoff. We characterise the trade-off from the perspective of the system as a whole, and subsequently from that of an individual seller. Our results highlight a decision on risk aversion for resource providers, but crucially we show that rational self-interested sellers would not adopt the behaviour likely to lead to the ideal result from the system point of view.

Unifractality and multifractality in the Italian stock market

Tests for random walk behaviour in the Italian stock market are presented, based on an investigation of the fractal properties of the log return series for the Mibtel index. The random walk hypothesis is evaluated against alternatives accommodating either unifractality or multifractality. Critical values for the test statistics are generated using Monte Carlo simulations of random Gaussian innovations. Evidence is reported of multifractality, and the departure from random walk behaviour is statistically significant on standard criteria. The observed pattern is attributed primarily to fat tails in the return probability distribution, associated with volatility clustering in returns measured over various time scales. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Future trends in human resource management in emerging markets

In many ways the emerging markets represent something of a new frontier for academics and practitioners alike, or as one author puts it, ‘a significant topic of interest for a multitude of constituencies’ (Alkire, 2014: 334). The very term itself ‘emerging markets’ is something of a portmanteau one built on a series of layered insights garnered from several academic fields and multiple levels of analysis. Originally coined as a term in the 1980s, albeit with several earlier linked terminologies, this is an evolving and diverse literature. Inherent in its diversity lies a whole series of opportunities, encompassing the purely theoretical through to the methodological and the analytical. Capturing the essence of this in his Editorial in the inaugural edition of The International Journal of Emerging Markets, Akbar (2006) noted that from an academic perspective the emerging markets as a context for the creation and execution of a sustainable research agenda represent ‘a heterogeneous group of economies and societies’ and an ‘important testing ground for our existing theories, models and concepts of business and management’ affording those who focus on them as a research location the opportunity for ‘the development of new theoretical contributions in the field’. In this volume, we have sought to bring some systematics to this evolving literature dedicated to charting HRM in these emerging markets.