Wavelet analysis of heart rate variability related to nocturnal frontal lobe epilepsy seizures

Introduction: Nocturnal frontal lobe epilepsy (NFLE) is a distinct syndrome of partial epilepsy whose clinical features comprise a spectrum of paroxysmal motor manifestations of variable duration and complexity, arising from sleep. Cardiovascular changes during NFLE seizures have previously been observed, however the extent of these modifications and their relationship with seizure onset has not been analyzed in detail. Objective: Aim of present study is to evaluate NFLE seizure related changes in heart rate (HR) and in sympathetic/parasympathetic balance through wavelet analysis of HR variability (HRV). Methods: We evaluated the whole night digitally recorded video-polysomnography (VPSG) of 9 patients diagnosed with NFLE with no history of cardiac disorders and normal cardiac examinations. Events with features of NFLE seizures were selected independently by three examiners and included in the study only if a consensus was reached. Heart rate was evaluated by measuring the interval between two consecutive R-waves of QRS complexes (RRi). RRi series were digitally calculated for a period of 20 minutes, including the seizures and resampled at 10 Hz using cubic spline interpolation. A multiresolution analysis was performed (Daubechies-16 form), and the squared level specific amplitude coefficients were summed across appropriate decomposition levels in order to compute total band powers in bands of interest (LF: 0.039062 - 0.156248, HF: 0.156248 - 0.624992). A general linear model was then applied to estimate changes in RRi, LF and HF powers during three different period (Basal) (30 sec, at least 30 sec before seizure onset, during which no movements occurred and autonomic conditions resulted stationary); pre-seizure period (preSP) (10 sec preceding seizure onset) and seizure period (SP) corresponding to the clinical manifestations. For one of the patients (patient 9) three seizures associated with ictal asystole were recorded, hence he was treated separately. Results: Group analysis performed on 8 patients (41 seizures) showed that RRi remained unchanged during the preSP, while a significant tachycardia was observed in the SP. A significant increase in the LF component was instead observed during both the preSP and the SP (p<0.001) while HF component decreased only in the SP (p<0.001). For patient 9 during the preSP and in the first part of SP a significant tachycardia was observed associated with an increased sympathetic activity (increased LF absolute values and LF%). In the second part of the SP a progressive decrease in HR that gradually exceeded basal values occurred before IA. Bradycardia was associated with an increase in parasympathetic activity (increased HF absolute values and HF%) contrasted by a further increase in LF until the occurrence of IA. Conclusions: These data suggest that changes in autonomic balance toward a sympathetic prevalence always preceded clinical seizure onset in NFLE, even when HR changes were not yet evident, confirming that wavelet analysis is a sensitive technique to detect sudden variations of autonomic balance occurring during transient phenomena. Finally we demonstrated that epileptic asystole is associated with a parasympathetic hypertonus counteracted by a marked sympathetic activation.

Marginal Return of Infrastructure Investment on Bilateral Trade Performance

Investing in transport infrastructures such as roadways, airports and seaports has proven to improve a country's trade performance through reduction of transportation costs and providing access to production and market. This research investigates the diminishing return of infrastructure investment and also the rate of return of two types of infrastructure investment strategies on trade. An augmented gravity model is used with econometric analysis methods in this study. The results have shown that as roadway and airport densities increase, the marginal returns on trade decrease. Empirical evidence from the United States and China with all their trading partners from the past twenty years has also suggested existence of diminishing return of infrastructure investment on roadways and airports. Infrastructure investment strategy that focuses on increasing roadway and airport density experiences smaller diminishing return on trade. In contrast, seaport investment that focuses on port quality and efficiency generates higher return on trade. A trade benefiting infrastructure investment strategy that best utilizes financial resources must balance between quality and quantity based on a country's current level of infrastructure asset.

The Risk Management of Minimum Return Guarantees

Contracts paying a guaranteed minimum rate of return and a fraction of a positive excess rate, which is specified relative to a benchmark portfolio, are closely related to unit-linked life-insurance products and can be considered as alternatives to direct investment in the underlying benchmark. They contain an embedded power option, and the key issue is the tractable and realistic hedging of this option, in order to rigorously justify valuation by arbitrage arguments and prevent the guarantees from becoming uncontrollable liabilities to the issuer. We show how to determine the contract parameters conservatively and implement robust risk-management strategies.

Intrauterine instillation of diluted seminal plasma at oocyte pick-up does not increase the IVF pregnancy rate: a double-blind, placebo controlled, randomized study.

STUDY QUESTION Does intrauterine application of diluted seminal plasma (SP) at the time of ovum pick-up improve the pregnancy rate by ≥14% in IVF treatment? SUMMARY ANSWER Intrauterine instillation of diluted SP at the time of ovum pick-up is unlikely to increase the pregnancy rate by ≥14% in IVF. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY SP modulates endometrial function, and sexual intercourse around the time of embryo transfer has been suggested to increase the likelihood of pregnancy. A previous randomized double-blind pilot study demonstrated a strong trend towards increased pregnancy rates following the intracervical application of undiluted SP. As this study was not conclusive and as the finding could have been confounded by sexual intercourse, the intrauterine application of diluted SP was investigated in the present trial. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION A single-centre, prospective, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized, superiority trial on women undergoing IVF was conducted from April 2007 until February 2012 at the University Department of Gynaecological Endocrinology and Reproductive Medicine, Heidelberg, Germany. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS The study was powered to detect an 14% increase in the clinical pregnancy rate and two sequential tests were planned using the Pocock spending function. At the first interim analysis, 279 women had been randomly assigned to intrauterine diluted SP (20% SP in saline from the patients' partner) (n = 138) or placebo (n = 141) at the time of ovum pick-up. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE The clinical pregnancy rate per randomized patient was 37/138 (26.8%) in the SP group and 41/141 (29.1%) in the placebo group (difference: -2.3%, 95% confidence interval of the difference: -12.7 to +8.2%; P = 0.69). The live birth rate per randomized patient was 28/138 (20.3%) in the SP group and 33/141 (23.4%) in the placebo group (difference: -3.1%, 95% confidence interval of the difference: -12.7 to +6.6%; P = 0.56). It was decided to terminate the trial due to futility at the first interim analysis, at a conditional power of 62%. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION The confidence interval of the difference remains wide, thus clinically relevant differences cannot reliably be excluded based on this single study. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS The results of this study cast doubt on the validity of the concept that SP increases endometrial receptivity and thus implantation in humans. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) Funding was provided by the department's own research facilities. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER DRKS00004615.

Automatic Stabilizer Feature of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets

This paper shows that countries characterized by a financial accelerator mechanism may reverse the usual finding of the literature -- flexible exchange rate regimes do a worse job of insulating open economies from external shocks. I obtain this result with a calibrated small open economy model that endogenizes foreign interest rates by linking them to the banking sector's foreign currency leverage. This relationship renders exchange rate policy more important compared to the usual exogeneity assumption. I find empirical support for this prediction using the Local Projections method. Finally, 2nd order approximation to the model finds larger welfare losses under flexible regimes.

Helium isotope ratios and sedimentation rate models of ODP holes

A continuous age model for the brief climate excursion at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary has been constructed by assuming a constant flux of extraterrestrial 3He (3He[ET]) to the seafloor. 3He[ET] measurements from ODP Site 690 provide quantitative evidence for the rapid onset (rated age models indicating extremely rapid release of isotopically light carbon, possibly from seafloor methane hydrate, as the proximal cause of the event. However, the 3He[ET] technique indicates a previously unrecognized and extreme increase in sedimentation rate coincident with the return of climate proxies to pre-event values. The 3He[ET]-based age model thus suggests a far more rapid recovery from the climatic perturbation than previously proposed or predicted on the basis of the modern carbon cycle, and so may indicate additional or accelerated mechanisms of carbon removal from the ocean-atmosphere system during this period. 3He[ET] was also measured at ODP Site 1051 to test the validity of the Site 690 chronology. Comparison of these data sets seems to require removal of several tens of kyr of sediment within the climatic excursion at Site 1051, an observation consistent with sediment structures and previous age modeling efforts. The Site 1051 age model shows a ~30 kyr period in which climate proxies return toward pre-event values, after which they remain invariant for ~80 kyr. If this rise represents the recovery interval identified at Site 690, then the 3HeET-based age models of the two sites are in good agreement. However, alternative interpretations are possible, and work on less disrupted sites is required to evaluate the reliability of the proposed new chronology of the climate excursion. Regardless of these details, this work shows that the 3HeET technique can provide useful independent evidence for the development and testing of astronomically calibrated age models.

Grain-size distribution, sedimentation rate and x-ray fluorescence data of four sediment cores off the Senegal River estuary

Fine-grained sediment depocenters on continental shelves are of increased scientific interest since they record environmental changes sensitively. A north-south elongated mud depocenter extends along the Senegalese coast in mid-shelf position. Shallow-acoustic profiling was carried out to determine extent, geometry and internal structures of this sedimentary body. In addition, four sediment cores were retrieved with the main aim to identify how paleoclimatic signals and coastal changes have controlled the formation of this mud depocenter. A general paleoclimatic pattern in terms of fluvial input appears to be recorded in this depositional archive. Intervals characterized by high terrigenous input, high sedimentation rates and fine grain sizes occur roughly contemporaneously in all cores and are interpreted as corresponding to intensified river discharge related to more humid conditions in the hinterland. From 2750 to 1900 and from 1000 to 700 cal a BP, wetter conditions are recorded off Senegal, an observation which is in accordance with other records from NW-Africa. Nevertheless, the three employed proxies (sedimentation rate, grain size and elemental distribution) do not always display consistent inter-core patterns. Major differences between the individual core records are attributed to sediment remobilization which was linked to local hydrographic variations as well as reorganizations of the coastal system. The Senegal mud belt is a layered inhomogeneous sedimentary body deposited on an irregular erosive surface. Early Holocene deceleration in the rate of the sea-level rise could have enabled initial mud deposition on the shelf. These favorable conditions for mud deposition occur coevally with a humid period over NW-Africa, thus, high river discharge. Sedimentation started preferentially in the northern areas of the mud belt. During mid-Holocene, a marine incursion led to the formation of an embayment. Afterwards, sedimentation in the north was interrupted in association with a remarkable southward shift in the location of the active depocenter as it is reflected by the sedimentary architecture and confirmed by radiocarbon dates. These sub-recent shifts in depocenters location are caused by migrations of the Senegal River mouth. During late Holocene times, the weakening of river discharge allowed the longshore currents to build up a chain of beach barriers which have forced the river mouth to shift southwards.

Measurement of the electron neutrino charged-current interaction rate on water with the T2K ND280 π0 detector

This paper presents a measurement of the charged current interaction rate of the electron neutrino beam component of the beam above 1.5 GeV using the large fiducial mass of the T2K π0 detector. The predominant portion of the νe flux (∼85%) at these energies comes from kaon decays. The measured ratio of the observed beam interaction rate to the predicted rate in the detector with water targets filled is 0.89 ± 0.08 (stat.) ± 0.11 (sys.), and with the water targets emptied is 0.90 ± 0.09 (stat.) ± 0.13 (sys.). The ratio obtained for the interactions on water only from an event subtraction method is 0.87 ± 0.33 (stat.) ± 0.21 (sys.). This is the first measurement of the interaction rate of electron neutrinos on water, which is particularly of interest to experiments with water Cherenkov detectors.

Return of Equity Issues in the Spanish Stock Market from the Investor’s Perspective, during the 1997-2012 Period

Is it profitable for an investor, from a risk-return perspective, to acquire a stake in a quoted company when a capital increase is announced? This paper analyses the return obtained from the investment in equity issues with cash contribution and pre-emptive rights, aimed at funding corporate activities: acquisitions, investments in new facilities and/or strengthening the balance sheet of the companies undertaking the equity issue. During the 16 years covered by the study, the results show a negative average excess risk-adjusted return of almost 5%, from the moment that the equity offer is announced until the completion of the preferential subscription period. To obtain this excess return, the difference between the nominal Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and the expected return, using the CAPM, is computed for each equity issue. The intention behind this method is to eliminate the effects of time and any other possible effect on the stock price during the period of the analysis.The results from this article are consistent with the Pecking Order theory for the Spanish Stock Market also six months after the preferential subscription period. However, there is a positive return after three months.

Exploring users inter-temporal preferences for measuring transport social equity effects

There exist different ways for defining a welfare function. Traditionally, welfare economic theory foundation is based on the Net Present Value (NPV) calculation where the time dependent preferences of considered agents are taken into account. However, the time preferences, remains a controversial subject. Currently, the traditional approach employs a unique discount rate for various agents. Nevertheless, this way of discounting appears inconsistent with sustainable development. New research work suggests that the discount rate may not be a homogeneous value. The discount rates may change following the individual’s preferences. A significant body of evidence suggests that people do not behave following a constant discount rate. In fact, UK Government has quickly recognized the power of the arguments for time-varying rates, as it has done in its official guidance to Ministries on the appraisal of investments and policies. Other authors deal with not just time preference but with uncertainty about future income (precautionary saving). In a situation in which economic growth rates are similar across time periods, the rationale for declining social optimal discount rates is driven by the preferences of the individuals in the economy, rather than expectations of growth. However, these approaches have been mainly focused on long-term policies where intergenerational risks may appear. The traditional cost-benefit analysis (CBA) uses a unique discount rate derived from market interest rates or investment rates of return for discounting the costs and benefits of all social agents included in the CBA. However, recent literature showed that a more adequate measure of social benefit is possible by using different discount rates including inter-temporal preferences rate of users, private investment discount rate and intertemporal preferences rate of government. Actually, the costs of opportunity may differ amongst individuals, firms, governments, or society in general, as do the returns on savings. In general, the firms or operators require an investment rate linked to the current return on savings, while the discount rate of consumers-users depends on their time preferences with respect of the current and the future consumption, as well as society can take into account the intergenerational well-being, adopting a lower discount rate for today’s generation. Time discount rate of social actors (users, operators, government and society) places a lower value in a future gain, but the uncertainty about future income strongly determines the individual preferences. These time and uncertainty depends on preferences and should be integrated into a transport policy formulation that may have significant social impacts. The discount rate of a user cannot be the same than the operator’s discount rate. The preferences of both are different. In addition, another school of thought suggests that people, such as a social group, may have different attitudes towards future costs and benefits. Particularly, the users have different discount rates related to their income. Some research work tried to modify user discount rates using a compensating weight which represents the inverse of household income level. The inter-temporal preferences are a proxy of the willingness to pay during the time. Its consideration is important in order to make acceptable or not a policy or investment

DEMOCRACY AND CITIZENSHIP IN NORTH AFRICA AFTER THE ARAB AWAKENING: CHALLENGES FOR EU AND US FOREIGN POLICY (EUSPRING). Arab Citizenship Review No. 6, October 2014. EGYPT. The Return to Authoritarianism and the Crisis of Citizenship Rights

Citizenship and democratic rights have been shrinking in Egypt with the rise of president Abd El Fattah El Sisi, widely popular among Egyptians who fear more violence and unrest in an increasingly volatile region. In this EU Spring Policy Brief, Moataz El Fegiery examines the political landscape in the run-up of parliamentary elections, arguing that the short term is likely to see further curtailment of acquired rights, further crackdown on the opposition and consolidation of military power. In the longer term, however, it is in the interest of Egyptian society and institutions as well as of Europe to reverse the politics of exclusion and ensure that freedoms, pluralism and participation prevent the rise of extremism and political violence.

Bank rate.

Mode of access: Internet.

CARTEIRAS DE INVESTIMENTOS UMA APLICAÇÃO A PARTIR DO MODELO ELTON-GRUBER

Atualmente, nota-se uma intensa movimentação de capitais financeiros, seja por conta de fusões e incorporações de empresas, seja pela expansão natural do próprio capitalismo, levando então as organizações a buscarem alternativas de financiamento com menores custos, isso quando consideradas as taxas de juros praticadas por instituições financeiras. Concomitantemente a isso, autoridades monetárias, circunstancialmente buscam a redução das taxas de juros que norteiam a economia, no intuito de se atrair novos investimentos produtivos e ainda preservar aqueles existentes. De maneira até paradoxal, a redução das taxas de juros promulgada por autoridades, não exibe a mesma proporção de redução daquelas praticadas pelo mercado. Este aspecto leva os indivíduos, sejam eles gestores de investimentos ou não, a buscarem alternativas de investimentos que proporcionem ganhos monetários superiores àqueles que são fundamentados nas taxas estabelecidas pelas autoridades monetárias. Conciliando a busca de recursos por organizações e a busca por maiores ganhos monetários por parte dos investidores, o mercado de capitais se torna uma alternativa relevante. De modo a conseguir os melhores resultados nesse ambiente, há necessidade de se utilizar modelos e outros instrumentos que propiciem a melhor relação entre risco e retorno, haja vista que todo investidor emite ao menos alguma aversão ao risco. Vários são os instrumentos disponíveis para realizar essas relações, entretanto, muitos deles não acessíveis ao investidor na condição de pessoa física. E mediante esse aspecto, o modelo desenvolvido por Edwin Elton e Martin Gruber surge como alternativa a qualquer investidor, seja por suas características construtivas, seja por sua operacionalidade.

Capital markets and the market structure of foreign investments

Contrary to the long-received theory of FDI, interest rates or rates of return can motivate foreign direct investment (FDI) in concert with the benefits of direct ownership. Thus, access to investor capital and capital markets is a vital component of the multinational’s competitive market structure. Moreover, multinationals can use their superior financial capacity as a competitive advantage in exploiting FDI opportunities in dynamic markets. They can also mitigate higher levels of foreign business risks under dynamic conditions by shifting more financial risk to creditors in the host economy. Furthermore, the investor’s expectation of foreign business risk necessarily commands a risk premium for exposing their equity to foreign market risk. Multinationals can modify the profit maximization strategy of their foreign subsidiaries to maximize growth or profits to generate this risk premium. In this context, we investigate how foreign subsidiaries manage their capital funding, business risk, and profit strategies with a diverse sample of 8,000 matched parents and foreign subsidiary accounts from multiple industries in 38 countries.We find that interest rates, asset prices, and expectations in capital markets have a significant effect on the capital movements of foreign subsidiaries. We also find that foreign subsidiaries mitigate their exposure to foreign business risk by modifying their capital structure and debt maturity. Further, we show how the operating strategy of foreign subsidiaries affects their preference for growth or profit maximization. We further show that superior shareholder value, which is a vital link for access to capital for funding foreign expansion in open market economies, is achieved through maintaining stability in the rate of growth and good asset utilization.

Exchange rate forecasting using a combined parametric and nonparametric self-organising modelling approach

Financial prediction has attracted a lot of interest due to the financial implications that the accurate prediction of financial markets can have. A variety of data driven modellingapproaches have been applied but their performance has produced mixed results. In this study we apply both parametric (neural networks with active neurons) and nonparametric (analog complexing) self-organisingmodelling methods for the daily prediction of the exchangerate market. We also propose acombinedapproach where the parametric and nonparametricself-organising methods are combined sequentially, exploiting the advantages of the individual methods with the aim of improving their performance. The combined method is found to produce promising results and to outperform the individual methods when tested with two exchangerates: the American Dollar and the Deutche Mark against the British Pound.