Les traces de pneumatiques en sciences forensiques : de l'analyse chimique à l'évaluation de la force probante

This work is focused on the development of a methodology for the use of chemical characteristic of tire traces to help answer the following question: "Is the offending tire at the origin of the trace found on the crime scene?". This methodology goes from the trace sampling on the road to statistical analysis of its chemical characteristics. Knowledge about the composition and manufacture of tread tires as well as a review of instrumental techniques used for the analysis of polymeric materials were studied to select, as an ansi vi cal technique for this research, pyrolysis coupled to a gas Chromatograph with a mass spectrometry detector (Py-GC/MS). An analytical method was developed and optimized to obtain the lowest variability between replicates of the same sample. Within-variability of the tread was evaluated regarding width and circumference with several samples taken from twelve tires of different brands and/or models. The variability within each of the treads (within-variability) and between the treads (between-variability) could be quantified. Different statistical methods have shown that within-variability is lower than between-variability, which helped differentiate these tires. Ten tire traces were produced with tires of different brands and/or models by braking tests. These traces have been adequately sampled using sheets of gelatine. Particles of each trace were analysed using the same methodology as for the tires at their origin. The general chemical profile of a trace or of a tire has been characterized by eighty-six compounds. Based on a statistical comparison of the chemical profiles obtained, it has been shown that a tire trace is not differentiable from the tire at its origin but is generally differentiable from tires that are not at its origin. Thereafter, a sample containing sixty tires was analysed to assess the discrimination potential of the developed methodology. The statistical results showed that most of the tires of different brands and models are differentiable. However, tires of the same brand and model with identical characteristics, such as country of manufacture, size and DOT number, are not differentiable. A model, based on a likelihood ratio approach, was chosen to evaluate the results of the comparisons between the chemical profiles of the traces and tires. The methodology developed was finally blindly tested using three simulated scenarios. Each scenario involved a trace of an unknown tire as well as two tires possibly at its origin. The correct results for the three scenarios were used to validate the developed methodology. The different steps of this work were useful to collect the required information to test and validate the underlying assumption that it is possible to help determine if an offending tire » or is not at the origin of a trace, by means of a statistical comparison of their chemical profile. This aid was formalized by a measure of the probative value of the evidence, which is represented by the chemical profile of the trace of the tire. - Ce travail s'est proposé de développer une méthodologie pour l'exploitation des caractéristiques chimiques des traces de pneumatiques dans le but d'aider à répondre à la question suivante : «Est-ce que le pneumatique incriminé est ou n'est pas à l'origine de la trace relevée sur les lieux ? ». Cette méthodologie s'est intéressée du prélèvement de la trace de pneumatique sur la chaussée à l'exploitation statistique de ses caractéristiques chimiques. L'acquisition de connaissances sur la composition et la fabrication de la bande de roulement des pneumatiques ainsi que la revue de techniques instrumentales utilisées pour l'analyse de matériaux polymériques ont permis de choisir, comme technique analytique pour la présente recherche, la pyrolyse couplée à un chromatographe en phase gazeuse avec un détecteur de spectrométrie de masse (Py-GC/MS). Une méthode analytique a été développée et optimisée afin d'obtenir la plus faible variabilité entre les réplicas d'un même échantillon. L'évaluation de l'intravariabilité de la bande de roulement a été entreprise dans sa largeur et sa circonférence à l'aide de plusieurs prélèvements effectués sur douze pneumatiques de marques et/ou modèles différents. La variabilité au sein de chacune des bandes de roulement (intravariabilité) ainsi qu'entre les bandes de roulement considérées (intervariabilité) a pu être quantifiée. Les différentes méthodes statistiques appliquées ont montré que l'intravariabilité est plus faible que l'intervariabilité, ce qui a permis de différencier ces pneumatiques. Dix traces de pneumatiques ont été produites à l'aide de pneumatiques de marques et/ou modèles différents en effectuant des tests de freinage. Ces traces ont pu être adéquatement prélevées à l'aide de feuilles de gélatine. Des particules de chaque trace ont été analysées selon la même méthodologie que pour les pneumatiques à leur origine. Le profil chimique général d'une trace de pneumatique ou d'un pneumatique a été caractérisé à l'aide de huitante-six composés. Sur la base de la comparaison statistique des profils chimiques obtenus, il a pu être montré qu'une trace de pneumatique n'est pas différenciable du pneumatique à son origine mais est, généralement, différenciable des pneumatiques qui ne sont pas à son origine. Par la suite, un échantillonnage comprenant soixante pneumatiques a été analysé afin d'évaluer le potentiel de discrimination de la méthodologie développée. Les méthodes statistiques appliquées ont mis en évidence que des pneumatiques de marques et modèles différents sont, majoritairement, différenciables entre eux. La méthodologie développée présente ainsi un bon potentiel de discrimination. Toutefois, des pneumatiques de la même marque et du même modèle qui présentent des caractéristiques PTD (i.e. pays de fabrication, taille et numéro DOT) identiques ne sont pas différenciables. Un modèle d'évaluation, basé sur une approche dite du likelihood ratio, a été adopté pour apporter une signification au résultat des comparaisons entre les profils chimiques des traces et des pneumatiques. La méthodologie mise en place a finalement été testée à l'aveugle à l'aide de la simulation de trois scénarios. Chaque scénario impliquait une trace de pneumatique inconnue et deux pneumatiques suspectés d'être à l'origine de cette trace. Les résultats corrects obtenus pour les trois scénarios ont permis de valider la méthodologie développée. Les différentes étapes de ce travail ont permis d'acquérir les informations nécessaires au test et à la validation de l'hypothèse fondamentale selon laquelle il est possible d'aider à déterminer si un pneumatique incriminé est ou n'est pas à l'origine d'une trace, par le biais d'une comparaison statistique de leur profil chimique. Cette aide a été formalisée par une mesure de la force probante de l'indice, qui est représenté par le profil chimique de la trace de pneumatique.

(Don’t) Make My Vote Count

Proponents of proportional electoral rules often argue that majority rule depresses turnout and may lower welfare due to the 'tyranny of the majority' problem. The present paper studies the impact of electoral rules on turnout and social welfare. We analyze a model of instrumental voting where citizens have private information over their individual cost of voting and over the alternative they prefer. The electoral rule used to select the winning alternative is a combination of majority rule and proportional rule. Results show that the above arguments against majority rule do not hold in this set up. Social welfare and turnout increase with the weight that the electoral rule gives to majority rule when the electorate is expected to be split, and they are independent of the electoral rule employed when the expected size of the minority group tends to zero. However, more proportional rules can increase turnout within the minority group. This effect is stronger the smaller the minority group. We then conclude that majority rule fosters overall turnout and increases social welfare, whereas proportional rule fosters the participation of minorities.

Heterogeneous T-cell response to MAGE-A10(254-262): high avidity-specific cytolytic T lymphocytes show superior antitumor activity.

MAGE-encoded antigens, which are expressed by tumors of many histological types but not in normal tissues, are suitable candidates for vaccine-based immunotherapy of cancers. Thus far, however, T-cell responses to MAGE antigens have been detected only occasionally in cancer patients. In contrast, by using HLA/peptide fluorescent tetramers, we have observed recently that CD8(+) T cells specific for peptide MAGE-A10(254-262) can be detected frequently in peptide-stimulated peripheral blood mononuclear cells from HLA-A2-expressing melanoma patients and healthy donors. On the basis of these results, antitumoral vaccination trials using peptide MAGE-A10(254-262) have been implemented recently. In the present study, we have characterized MAGE-A10(254-262)-specific CD8(+) T cells in polyclonal cultures and at the clonal level. The results indicate that the repertoire of MAGE-A10(254-262)-specific CD8(+) T cells is diverse both in terms of clonal composition, efficiency of peptide recognition, and tumor-specific lytic activity. Importantly, only CD8(+) T cells able to recognize the antigenic peptide with high efficiency are able to lyse MAGE-A10-expressing tumor cells. Under defined experimental conditions, the tetramer staining intensity exhibited by MAGE-A10(254-262)-specific CD8(+) T cells correlates with efficiency of peptide recognition so that "high" and "low" avidity cells can be separated by FACS. Altogether, the data reported here provide evidence for functional diversity of MAGE-A10(254-262)-specific T cells and will be instrumental for the monitoring of peptide MAGE-A10(254-262)-based clinical trials.

The Difference, System and ‘Double-D’ GMM Panel Estimators in the Presence of Structural Breaks

The effects of structural breaks in dynamic panels are more complicated than in time series models as the bias can be either negative or positive. This paper focuses on the effects of mean shifts in otherwise stationary processes within an instrumental variable panel estimation framework. We show the sources of the bias and a Monte Carlo analysis calibrated on United States bank lending data demonstrates the size of the bias for a range of auto-regressive parameters. We also propose additional moment conditions that can be used to reduce the biases caused by shifts in the mean of the data.

Chasing Graduate Jobs?

This paper examines empirically the relationship between under-employment and migration amongst five cohorts of graduates of Scottish higher education institutions with micro-data collected by the Higher Education Statistical Agency. The data indicate that there is a strong positive relationship between migration and graduate employment—those graduates who move after graduation from Scotland to the rest of the UK or abroad have a much higher rate of graduate employment. Versions of probit regression are used to estimate migration and graduate employment equations in order to explore the nature of this relationship further. These equations confirm that there is a strong positive relationship between the probability of migrating and the probability of being in graduate employment even after other factors are controlled for. Instrumental variables estimation is used to examine the causal nature of the relationship by attempting to deal with the potential endogeneity of migration decisions. Overall the analysis is consistent with the hypotheses that a sizeable fraction of higher education graduates are leaving Scotland for employment reasons. In turn this finding suggests the over-education/under-employment nexus is a serious problem in Scotland.

A Consistent Nonparametric Bootstrap Test of Exogeneity

This paper proposes a novel way of testing exogeneity of an explanatory variable without any parametric assumptions in the presence of a "conditional" instrumental variable. A testable implication is derived that if an explanatory variable is endogenous, the conditional distribution of the outcome given the endogenous variable is not independent of its instrumental variable(s). The test rejects the null hypothesis with probability one if the explanatory variable is endogenous and it detects alternatives converging to the null at a rate n..1=2:We propose a consistent nonparametric bootstrap test to implement this testable implication. We show that the proposed bootstrap test can be asymptotically justi.ed in the sense that it produces asymptotically correct size under the null of exogeneity, and it has unit power asymptotically. Our nonparametric test can be applied to the cases in which the outcome is generated by an additively non-separable structural relation or in which the outcome is discrete, which has not been studied in the literature.

Coordination in Public Good Provision: How Individual Volunteering is Impacted by the Volunteering of Others

In this analysis, we examine the relationship between an individual's decision to volunteer and the average level of volunteering in the community where the individual resides. Our theoretical model is based on a coordination game , in which volunteering by others is informative regarding the benefit from volunteering. We demonstrate that the interaction between this information and one's private information makes it more likely that he or she will volunteer, given a higher level of contributions by his or her peers. We complement this theoretical work with an empirical analysis using Census 2000 Summary File 3 and Current Population Survey (CPS) 2004-2007 September supplement file data. We control for various individual and community characteristics, and employ robustness checks to verify the results of the baseline analysis. We additionally use an innovative instrumental variables strategy to account for reflection bias and endogeneity caused by selective sorting by individuals into neighborhoods, which allows us to argue for a causal interpretation. The empirical results in the baseline, as well as all robustness analyses, verify the main result of our theoretical model, and we employ a more general structure to further strengthen our results.

Coordination in Public Good Provision: How Individual Volunteering is Impacted by the Volunteering of Others

In this analysis, we examine the relationship between an individual’s decision to volunteer and the average level of volunteering in the community where the individual resides. Our theoretical model is based on a coordination game , in which volunteering by others is informative regarding the benefit from volunteering. We demonstrate that the interaction between this information and one’s private information makes it more likely that he or she will volunteer, given a higher level of contributions by his or her peers. We complement this theoretical work with an empirical analysis using Census 2000 Summary File 3 and Current Population Survey (CPS) 2004-2007 September supplement file data. We control for various individual and community characteristics, and employ robustness checks to verify the results of the baseline analysis. We additionally use an innovative instrumental variables strategy to account for reflection bias and endogeneity caused by selective sorting by individuals into neighbourhoods, which allows us to argue for a causal interpretation. The empirical results in the baseline, as well as all robustness analyses, verify the main result of our theoretical model, and we employ a more general structure to further strengthen our results.

NYVAC immunization induces polyfunctional HIV-specific T-cell responses in chronically-infected, ART-treated HIV patients.

We report the results of the Theravac-01 phase I trial, which was conducted to evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of a poxvirus-based vector, NYVAC, expressing Gag, Pol, Nef, and Env from an HIV clade B isolate. NYVAC-B vaccine was injected intra-muscularly into ten HIV-infected patients successfully treated with antiretroviral therapy, twice on day 0 and again at week 4. Safety and immunogenicity were monitored for 48 weeks. HIV-specific T-cell responses following immunization were quantitatively analyzed using an IFN-γ ELISPOT assay and qualitatively characterized for their functional profile (including multiple cytokines secretion plus cytotoxic and proliferation capacity) by polychromatic flow cytometry. Our results indicate that the NYVAC-B vaccine is safe and highly immunogenic, as indicated by increased HIV-specific T-cell responses in virtually all vaccinees. Interestingly, both an expansion of preexisting T-cell responses, and the appearance of newly detected HIV-specific CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cell responses were observed. Furthermore, immunization mostly induced an increase in Gag-specific T-cell responses. In conclusion, NYVAC-B immunization induces broad, vigorous, and polyfunctional HIV-specific T-cell responses, suggesting that poxvirus-based vaccine regimens may be instrumental in the therapeutic HIV vaccine field.

Des céramiques aux hommes : étude céramique des premiers horizons fouillés sous la cathédrale Saint-Pierre de Genève (1er millénaire av. J.-C. - 40 apr. J.-C.)

Résumé Le travail présenté est basé sur l'analyse systématique des 145'157 fragments de céramique émanant de 2137 ensembles recueillis entre 1976 et 2003 lors de la fouille de la cathédrale Saint-Pierre. Datés entre le Ier millénaire av. J-C. et le XIXe siècle, ils témoignent de l'ampleur et de la richesse des activités menées au sein de ce site phare de la ville de Genève. Les particularités observées pour les six premiers horizons reconnus, qui couvrent une période comprise entre le Ier millénaire av. J.-C. et 40 apr. J.-C., liées aux structures a priori énigmatiques mises en évidence lors de la fouille, ont orienté le champ d'étude vers une compréhension fine du mobilier recueilli dans ces strates anciennes. Ainsi cadrée, l'étude s'est concentrée sur 237 complexes céramiques ayant livré 23'129 fragments. La corrélation stratigraphique menée sur les 8000 m2 de terrain fouillé a permis de porter l'analyse sur la répartition spatiale du corpus considéré. Développée également sur le plan diachronique, cette démarche a largement contribué à la définition des activités menées sur le site. Ainsi, la concentration de fragments de panses d'amphore et de vaisselle de table importée de Campanie au pied d'un tertre mis en évidence sous le choeur de la cathédrale a conduit à reconnaître l'existence d'un banquet funéraire témoignant de l'ensevelissement sous tumulus d'un aristocrate allobroge décédé entre 120 et 70 av. J.-C. Réparties sur la totalité de la surface occupée par la nef de la cathédrale et des rues la flanquant, les quelques 1024 coupes à boire de La Tène finale mises au jour ont quant à elles permis d'identifier les surfaces de gravier qu'elles scellaient comme une aire de rassemblement ayant abrité des banquets tenus périodiquement. Le maintien de ces activités rituelles et collectives jusqu'au milieu du Ier siècle de notre ère conclut l'analyse diachronique. La mise en perspective historique des données recueillies sur le terrain souligne l'importance de l'antique oppidum extremum des Allobroges, dont le sort fut en 58 av. J.-C. à l'origine de la Guerre des Gaules.

Cognitive and Emotional Deficits Associated with Minor and Serious Delinquency in High-Risk Adolescents

This study aims at evaluating how minor and serious delinquency relates to cognitive and emotional functioning in high-risk adolescents, taking problematic substance use into account. In 80 high-risk adolescent males (13-19 years), the frequency of minor and serious offences committed over the last year was predicted, in multiple regression analyses, from problematic substance use, intellectual efficiency, trait impulsivity, alexithymia (inability to express feelings in words), and cognitive coping strategies. Both minor and serious delinquency were more frequent in adolescents with more problematic substance use and higher intellectual efficacy. Minor delinquency was further related to a tendency to act out when experiencing negative emotions, and difficulties in focusing energy on instrumental action when under stress; while serious delinquency was predominantly and strongly related to rigid and dichotomous thinking. The results underline the heterogeneous nature of delinquency, minor offences being primarily associated with emotional regulation deficits, while major offences are related with a lack of cognitive flexibility.

Fiscal Federalism at the Ballot Box : The Relevance of Expressive Voting

This paper explores the impact of citizens' motivation to vote on the pattern of fiscal federalism. If the only concern of instrumental citizens was outcome they would have little incentive to vote because the probability that a single vote might change an electoral outcome is usually minuscule. If voters turn out in large numbers to derive intrinsic value from action, how will these voters choose when considering the role local jurisdictions should play? The first section of the paper assesses the weight that expressive voters attach to an instrumental evaluation of alternative outcomes. Predictions are tested with reference to case study analysis of the way Swiss voters assessed the role their local jurisdiction should play. The relevance of this analysis is also assessed with reference to the choice that voters express when considering other local issues. Textbook analysis of fiscal federalism is premised on the assumption that voters register choice just as 'consumers' reveal demand for services in a market, but how robust is this analogy.

PGC1alpha expression is controlled in skeletal muscles by PPARbeta, whose ablation results in fiber-type switching, obesity, and type 2 diabetes.

Mice in which peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor beta (PPARbeta) is selectively ablated in skeletal muscle myocytes were generated to elucidate the role played by PPARbeta signaling in these myocytes. These somatic mutant mice exhibited a muscle fiber-type switching toward lower oxidative capacity that preceded the development of obesity and diabetes, thus demonstrating that PPARbeta is instrumental in myocytes to the maintenance of oxidative fibers and that fiber-type switching is likely to be the cause and not the consequence of these metabolic disorders. We also show that PPARbeta stimulates in myocytes the expression of PGC1alpha, a coactivator of various transcription factors, known to play an important role in slow muscle fiber formation. Moreover, as the PGC1alpha promoter contains a PPAR response element, the effect of PPARbeta on the formation and/or maintenance of slow muscle fibers can be ascribed, at least in part, to a stimulation of PGC1alpha expression at the transcriptional level.

On making causal claims: A review and recommendations

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity--which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common methods bias, and measurement error--renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation is confounded, including fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66 % and up to 90 % of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

Molecular pathology of colorectal cancer.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most intensively studied cancer types, partly because of its high prevalence but also because of the existence of its precursor lesions, tubular or villous adenomas, and more recently (sessile) serrated adenomas, which can be detected endoscopically and removed. The morphological steps in the adenoma-carcinoma sequence have been elucidated at a molecular level, which has been facilitated by identification of the genes responsible for familial intestinal cancer. However, apart from early detection of familial forms of CRC and its use in genetic counseling, until recently such detailed molecular knowledge has had little impact on clinical management of the disease. This has dramatically changed in the last decade. With drugs specifically targeting the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) having been shown effective in CRC, mechanisms responsible for resistance have been explored. The finding that KRAS mutated cancers do not respond to anti-EGFR treatment has had a profound impact on clinical management and on molecular diagnostics of CRC. Additional genetic tests for mutations in NRAS, BRAF and PIK3CA contribute to determining who to treat, and others will follow. New therapies effective in patients with advanced CRC are under investigation. Remaining burning questions for optimal management are which patients will relapse after resection of the primary tumor and which patients will respond to the standard 5FU-oxaliplatin adjuvant treatment regimen. Predictive tests to address these issues are eagerly awaited. New classifications of CRC, based on molecular parameters, are emerging, and we will be confronted with new subtypes of CRC, for which the definition is based on combinations of gene expression patterns, chromosomal alterations, gene mutations and epigenetic characteristics. This will be instrumental in designing new approaches for therapy but will also be translated into molecular diagnostics. Both will contribute to improved clinical management of CRC.