Modelling non-industrial private forest landowners' strategic decision making by using logistic regression and neural networks: case of predicting the choice of forest taxation basis

Summary

Proposal for an index to classify irrigation water quality: a case study in northeastern Brazil

One way of classifying water quality is by means of indices, in which a series of parameters analyzed are joined a single value, facilitating the interpretation of extensive lists of variables or indicators, underlying the classification of water quality. The objective of this study was to develop a statistically based index to classify water according to the Irrigation Water Quality Index (IWQI), to evaluate the ionic composition of water for use in irrigation and classify it by its source. For this purpose, the database generated during the Technology Generation and Adaptation (GAT) program was used, in which, as of 1988, water samples were collected monthly from water sources in the states of Paraíba, Rio Grande do Norte and Ceará. To evaluate water quality, the electrical conductivity (EC) of irrigation water was taken as a reference, with values corresponding to 0.7 dS m-1. The chemical variables used in this study were: pH, EC, Ca, Mg, Na, K, Cl, HCO3, CO3, and SO4. The data of all characteristics evaluated were standardized and data normality was confirmed by Lilliefors test. Then the irrigation water quality index was determined by an equation that relates the standardized value of the variable with the number of characteristics evaluated. Thus, the IWQI was classified based on indices, considering normal distribution. Finally, these indices were subjected to regression analysis. The method proposed for the IWQI allowed a satisfactory classification of the irrigation water quality, being able to estimate it as a function of EC for the three water sources. Variation in the ionic composition was observed among the three sources and within a single source. Although the water quality differed, it was good in most cases, with the classification IWQI II.

Development and validation of a symptom-based activity index for adults with eosinophilic esophagitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Standardized instruments are needed to assess the activity of eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) and to provide end points for clinical trials and observational studies. We aimed to develop and validate a patient-reported outcome (PRO) instrument and score, based on items that could account for variations in patient assessments of disease severity. We also evaluated relationships between patient assessment of disease severity and EoE-associated endoscopic, histologic, and laboratory findings. METHODS: We collected information from 186 patients with EoE in Switzerland and the United States (69.4% male; median age, 43 y) via surveys (n = 135), focus groups (n = 27), and semistructured interviews (n = 24). Items were generated for the instruments to assess biologic activity based on physician input. Linear regression was used to quantify the extent to which variations in patient-reported disease characteristics could account for variations in patient assessment of EoE severity. The PRO instrument was used prospectively in 153 adult patients with EoE (72.5% male; median age, 38 y), and validated in an independent group of 120 patients with EoE (60.8% male; median age, 40.5 y). RESULTS: Seven PRO factors that are used to assess characteristics of dysphagia, behavioral adaptations to living with dysphagia, and pain while swallowing accounted for 67% of the variation in patient assessment of disease severity. Based on statistical consideration and patient input, a 7-day recall period was selected. Highly active EoE, based on endoscopic and histologic findings, was associated with an increase in patient-assessed disease severity. In the validation study, the mean difference between patient assessment of EoE severity (range, 0-10) and PRO score (range, 0-8.52) was 0.15. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated an EoE scoring system based on 7 PRO items that assess symptoms over a 7-day recall period. Clinicaltrials.gov number: NCT00939263.

Optical crop sensor for variable-rate nitrogen fertilization in corn: i - plant nutrition and dry matter production

Variable-rate nitrogen fertilization (VRF) based on optical spectrometry sensors of crops is a technological innovation capable of improving the nutrient use efficiency (NUE) and mitigate environmental impacts. However, studies addressing fertilization based on crop sensors are still scarce in Brazilian agriculture. This study aims to evaluate the efficiency of an optical crop sensor to assess the nutritional status of corn and compare VRF with the standard strategy of traditional single-rate N fertilization (TSF) used by farmers. With this purpose, three experiments were conducted at different locations in Southern Brazil, in the growing seasons 2008/09 and 2010/11. The following crop properties were evaluated: above-ground dry matter production, nitrogen (N) content, N uptake, relative chlorophyll content (SPAD) reading, and a vegetation index measured by the optical sensor N-Sensor® ALS. The plants were evaluated in the stages V4, V6, V8, V10, V12 and at corn flowering. The experiments had a completely randomized design at three different sites that were analyzed separately. The vegetation index was directly related to above-ground dry matter production (R² = 0.91; p<0.0001), total N uptake (R² = 0.87; p<0.0001) and SPAD reading (R² = 0.63; p<0.0001) and inversely related to plant N content (R² = 0.53; p<0.0001). The efficiency of VRF for plant nutrition was influenced by the specific climatic conditions of each site. Therefore, the efficiency of the VRF strategy was similar to that of the standard farmer fertilizer strategy at sites 1 and 2. However, at site 3 where the climatic conditions were favorable for corn growth, the use of optical sensors to determine VRF resulted in a 12 % increase in N plant uptake in relation to the standard fertilization, indicating the potential of this technology to improve NUE.

Optical crop sensor for variable-rate nitrogen fertilization in corn: II - indices of fertilizer efficiency and corn yield

Generally, in tropical and subtropical agroecosystems, the efficiency of nitrogen (N) fertilization is low, inducing a temporal variability of crop yield, economic losses, and environmental impacts. Variable-rate N fertilization (VRF), based on optical spectrometry crop sensors, could increase the N use efficiency (NUE). The objective of this study was to evaluate the corn grain yield and N fertilization efficiency under VRF determined by an optical sensor in comparison to the traditional single-application N fertilization (TSF). With this purpose, three experiments with no-tillage corn were carried out in the 2008/09 and 2010/11 growing seasons on a Hapludox in South Brazil, in a completely randomized design, at three different sites that were analyzed separately. The following crop properties were evaluated: aboveground dry matter production and quantity of N uptake at corn flowering, grain yield, and vegetation index determined by an N-Sensor® ALS optical sensor. Across the sites, the corn N fertilizer had a positive effect on corn N uptake, resulting in increased corn dry matter and grain yield. However, N fertilization induced lower increases of corn grain yield at site 2, where there was a severe drought during the growing period. The VRF defined by the optical crop sensor increased the apparent N recovery (NRE) and agronomic efficiency of N (NAE) compared to the traditional fertilizer strategy. In the average of sites 1 and 3, which were not affected by drought, VRF promoted an increase of 28.0 and 41.3 % in NAE and NRE, respectively. Despite these results, no increases in corn grain yield were observed by the use of VRF compared to TSF.

Retrospective feasibility study of simultaneous integrated boost in cervical cancer using Tomotherapy: the impact of organ motion and tumor regression.

BACKGROUND: Whole pelvis intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) is increasingly being used to treat cervical cancer aiming to reduce side effects. Encouraged by this, some groups have proposed the use of simultaneous integrated boost (SIB) to target the tumor, either to get a higher tumoricidal effect or to replace brachytherapy. Nevertheless, physiological organ movement and rapid tumor regression throughout treatment might substantially reduce any benefit of this approach. PURPOSE: To evaluate the clinical target volume - simultaneous integrated boost (CTV-SIB) regression and motion during chemo-radiotherapy (CRT) for cervical cancer, and to monitor treatment progress dosimetrically and volumetrically to ensure treatment goals are met. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Ten patients treated with standard doses of CRT and brachytherapy were retrospectively re-planned using a helical Tomotherapy - SIB technique for the hypothetical scenario of this feasibility study. Target and organs at risk (OAR) were contoured on deformable fused planning-computed tomography and megavoltage computed tomography images. The CTV-SIB volume regression was determined. The center of mass (CM) was used to evaluate the degree of motion. The Dice's similarity coefficient (DSC) was used to assess the spatial overlap of CTV-SIBs between scans. A cumulative dose-volume histogram modeled estimated delivered doses. RESULTS: The CTV-SIB relative reduction was between 31 and 70%. The mean maximum CM change was 12.5, 9, and 3 mm in the superior-inferior, antero-posterior, and right-left dimensions, respectively. The CTV-SIB-DSC approached 1 in the first week of treatment, indicating almost perfect overlap. CTV-SIB-DSC regressed linearly during therapy, and by the end of treatment was 0.5, indicating 50% discordance. Two patients received less than 95% of the prescribed dose. Much higher doses to the OAR were observed. A multiple regression analysis showed a significant interaction between CTV-SIB reduction and OAR dose increase. CONCLUSIONS: The CTV-SIB had important regression and motion during CRT, receiving lower therapeutic doses than expected. The OAR had unpredictable shifts and received higher doses. The use of SIB without frequent adaptation of the treatment plan exposes cervical cancer patients to an unpredictable risk of under-dosing the target and/or overdosing adjacent critical structures. In that scenario, brachytherapy continues to be the gold standard approach.

Design of surface forces apparatus for tribology studies combined with nonlinear optical spectroscopy

We describe the design, calibration, and performance of surface forces apparatus with the capability of illumination of the contact interface for spectroscopic investigation using optical techniques. The apparatus can be placed in the path of a Nd-YAG laser for studies of the linear response or the second harmonic and sum-frequency generation from a material confined between the two surfaces. In addition to the standard fringes of equal chromatic order technique, which we have digitized for accurate and fast analysis, the distance of separation can be measured with a fiber-optic interferometer during spectroscopic measurements (2 Å resolution and 10 ms response time). The sample approach is accomplished through application of a motor drive, piezoelectric actuator, or electromagnetic lever deflection for variable degrees of range, sensitivity, and response time. To demonstrate the operation of the instrument, the stepwise expulsion of discrete layers of octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane from the contact is shown. Lateral forces may also be studied by using piezoelectric bimorphs to induce and direct the motion of one surface.

A new and simple variable-angle accessory for infrared specular reflectance

A simple, low-cost accessory (patent pending) with only two flat mirrors and a new variable-angle mechanism has been developed for infrared specular reflectance measurements. The system allows the angles of incidence to be varied continuously from 15° (near normal incidence) to 85° (near grazing angle) without losing the alignment of the accessory. The reflectivity of boron nitride thin films deposited on metallic substrates has been measured at different angles of incidence to demonstrate the utility of this accessory.

Bacterial bioassay for rapid and accurate analysis of arsenic in highly variable groundwater samples.

In this study, we report the first ever large-scale environmental validation of a microbial reporter-based test to measure arsenic concentrations in natural water resources. A bioluminescence-producing arsenic-inducible bacterium based on Escherichia coli was used as the reporter organism. Specific protocols were developed with the goal to avoid the negative influence of iron in groundwater on arsenic availability to the bioreporter cells. A total of 194 groundwater samples were collected in the Red River and Mekong River Delta regions of Vietnam and were analyzed both by atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS) and by the arsenic bioreporter protocol. The bacterial cells performed well at and above arsenic concentrations in groundwater of 7 microg/L, with an almost linearly proportional increase of the bioluminescence signal between 10 and 100 microg As/L (r2 = 0.997). Comparisons between AAS and arsenic bioreporter determinations gave an overall average of 8.0% false negative and 2.4% false positive identifications for the bioreporter prediction at the WHO recommended acceptable arsenic concentration of 10 microg/L, which is far betterthan the performance of chemical field test kits. Because of the ease of the measurement protocol and the low application cost, the microbiological arsenic test has a great potential in large screening campaigns in Asia and in other areas suffering from arsenic pollution in groundwater resources.

Quantification of permanent and variable charges in reference soils of the State of Pernambuco, Brazil

The electrical charges in soil particles are divided into structural or permanent charges and variable charges. Permanent charges develop on the soil particle surface by isomorphic substitution. Variable charges arise from dissociation and association of protons (H+), protonation or deprotonation, and specific adsorption of cations and anions. The aim of this study was to quantify the permanent charges and variable charges of Reference Soils of the State of Pernambuco, Brazil. To do so, 24 subsurface profiles from different regions (nine in the Zona da Mata, eight in the Agreste, and seven in the Sertão) were sampled, representing approximately 80 % of the total area of the state. Measurements were performed using cesium chloride solution. Determination was made of the permanent charges and the charges in regard to the hydroxyl functional groups through selective ion exchange of Cs+ by Li+ and Cs+ by NH4+, respectively. All the soils analyzed exhibited variable cation exchange capacity, with proportions from 0.16 to 0.60 and an average of 0.40 when related to total cation exchange capacity.

Association between C-reactive protein and adiposity in women.

Context: The link between C-reactive protein (CRP) and adiposity deserves to be further explored considering the controversial diabetogenic role of CRP. Objective: We explored the potential causal role of CRP on measures of adiposity. Design: We used a Mendelian randomization approach with the CRP and LEPR genes as instrumental variables in a cross-sectional Caucasian population-based study comprising 2526 men and 2836 women. Adiposity was measured using body mass index (BMI), fat and lean mass estimated by bioelectrical impedance, and waist circumference. Results: Log-transformed CRP explained by the rs7553007 SNP tagging the CRP gene was significantly associated with BMI (regression coefficient: 1.22 [0.18;2.25], P=0.02) and fat mass (2.67 [0.65;4.68], P=0.01), but not with lean mass in women, whereas no association was found in men. Log-transformed CRP explained by the rs1805096 LEPR SNP was also positively associated, although not significantly, with BMI or fat mass. The combined CRP-LEPR instrument explained 2.24% and 0.77% of CRP variance in women and in men, respectively. Log-transformed CRP explained by this combined instrument was significantly associated with BMI (0.98 [0.32;1.63], P=0.004), fat mass (2.07 [0.79;3.34], P=0.001) and waist (2.09 [0.39;3.78], P=0.01) in women, but not in men. Conclusion: Our data suggest that CRP is causally and positively related to BMI in women, and that this is mainly due to fat mass. Results on the combined CRP-LEPR instrument suggest that leptin may play a role in the causal association between CRP and adiposity in women. Results in men were not significant.

Statewide Assessment Instrument, June 15, 2010

The Iowa Department of Human Services (IDHS) has responsibility for Iowa’s child welfare system. Iowa’s child welfare system focuses on children that have been or are at risk of being abused or neglected, as well as children that are determined by the Juvenile Court to be a child in need of assistance (CINA). The child welfare system is focused on three major results that are safety, permanency, and child and family well-being.

Elderly age is not a negative predictive factor for virological response to therapy with pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin in chronic hepatitis C virus patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Age is frequently discussed as negative host factor to achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral therapy of chronic hepatitis C. However, elderly patients often show advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis as known negative predictive factor. The aim of this study was to assess age as an independent predictive factor during antiviral therapy. METHODS: Overall, 516 hepatitis C patients were treated with pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin, thereof 66 patients ≥60 years. We analysed the impact of host factors (age, gender, fibrosis, haemoglobin, previous hepatitis C treatment) and viral factors (genotype, viral load) on SVR per therapy course by performing a generalized estimating equations (GEE) regression modelling, a matched pair analysis and a classification tree analysis. RESULTS: Overall, SVR per therapy course was 42.9 and 26.1%, respectively, in young and elderly patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes 1/4/6. The corresponding figures for HCV genotypes 2/3 were 74.4 and 84%. In the GEE model, age had no significant influence on achieving SVR. In matched pair analysis, SVR was not different in young and elderly patients (54.2 and 55.9% respectively; P = 0.795 in binominal test). In classification tree analysis, age was not a relevant splitting variable. CONCLUSIONS: Age is not a significant predictive factor for achieving SVR, when relevant confounders are taken into account. As life expectancy in Western Europe at age 60 is more than 20 years, it is reasonable to treat chronic hepatitis C in selected elderly patients with relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis but without major concomitant diseases, as SVR improves survival and reduces carcinogenesis.

Multitask learning of environmental spatial data

The present research deals with an application of artificial neural networks for multitask learning from spatial environmental data. The real case study (sediments contamination of Geneva Lake) consists of 8 pollutants. There are different relationships between these variables, from linear correlations to strong nonlinear dependencies. The main idea is to construct a subsets of pollutants which can be efficiently modeled together within the multitask framework. The proposed two-step approach is based on: 1) the criterion of nonlinear predictability of each variable ?k? by analyzing all possible models composed from the rest of the variables by using a General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) as a model; 2) a multitask learning of the best model using multilayer perceptron and spatial predictions. The results of the study are analyzed using both machine learning and geostatistical tools.

Regression analysis of spatial data.

Many of the most interesting questions ecologists ask lead to analyses of spatial data. Yet, perhaps confused by the large number of statistical models and fitting methods available, many ecologists seem to believe this is best left to specialists. Here, we describe the issues that need consideration when analysing spatial data and illustrate these using simulation studies. Our comparative analysis involves using methods including generalized least squares, spatial filters, wavelet revised models, conditional autoregressive models and generalized additive mixed models to estimate regression coefficients from synthetic but realistic data sets, including some which violate standard regression assumptions. We assess the performance of each method using two measures and using statistical error rates for model selection. Methods that performed well included generalized least squares family of models and a Bayesian implementation of the conditional auto-regressive model. Ordinary least squares also performed adequately in the absence of model selection, but had poorly controlled Type I error rates and so did not show the improvements in performance under model selection when using the above methods. Removing large-scale spatial trends in the response led to poor performance. These are empirical results; hence extrapolation of these findings to other situations should be performed cautiously. Nevertheless, our simulation-based approach provides much stronger evidence for comparative analysis than assessments based on single or small numbers of data sets, and should be considered a necessary foundation for statements of this type in future.