The macroeconomics of price adjustments under information frictions and menu costs

Esta tese se dedica ao estudo de modelos de fixação de preços e suas implicações macroeconômicas. Nos primeiros dois capítulos analiso modelos em que as decisões das firmas sobre seus preços praticados levam em conta custos de menu e de informação. No Capítulo 1 eu estimo tais modelos empregando estatísticas de variações de preços dos Estados Unidos, e concluo que: os custos de informação são significativamente maiores que os custos de menu; os dados claramente favorecem o modelo em que informações sobre condições agregadas são custosas enquanto que as idiossincráticas têm custo zero. No Capítulo 2 investigo as consequências de choques monetários e anúncios de desinflação usando os modelos previamente estimados. Mostro que o grau de não-neutralidade monetária é maior no modelo em que parte da informação é grátis. O Capítulo 3 é um artigo em conjunto com Carlos Carvalho (PUC-Rio) e Antonella Tutino (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas). No artigo examinamos um modelo de fixação de preços em que firmas estão sujeitas a uma restrição de fluxo de informação do tipo Shannon. Calibramos o modelo e estudamos funções impulso-resposta a choques idiossincráticos e agregados. Mostramos que as firmas vão preferir processar informações agregadas e idiossincráticas conjuntamente ao invés de investigá-las separadamente. Este tipo de processamento gera ajustes de preços mais frequentes, diminuindo a persistência de efeitos reais causados por choques monetários.

Information asymmetry and competition in credit markets: the pricing of overdraft loans in Brazil

This paper evaluates how information asymmetry affects the strength of competition in credit markets. A theory is presented in which adverse selection softens competition by decreasing the incentives creditors have for competing in the interest rate dimension. In equilibirum, although creditors compete, the outcome is similar to collusion. Three empirical implications arise. First, interest rate should respond asymmetrically to changes in the cost of funds: increases in cost of funds should, on average, have a larger effect on interest rates than decreases. Second, aggressiveness in pricing should be associated with a worseing in the bank level default rates. Third, bank level default rates should be endogenous. We then verify the validity of these three empirical implications using Brazilian data on consumer overdraft loans. The results in this paper rationalize seemingly abnormallly high interest rates in unsecured loans.

Neighborhood information exchange and voter participation : an experimental study

We study the effect of social embeddedness on voter turnout by investigating the role of information about other voters’ decisions. We do so in a participation game, where some voters (‘receivers’) are told about some other voters’ (‘senders’) turnout decision at a first stage of the game. Cases are distinguished where the voters support the same or different candidates or where they are uncertain about each other’s preferences. Our experimental results show that such information matters. Participation is much higher when information is exchanged than when it is not. Senders strategically try to use their first mover position and some receivers respond to this.

Information learning and the stability of fiat money

We analyze the stability of monetary regimes in a decentralized economy where fiat money is endogenously created, information about its value is imperfect, and agents only learn from their personal trading experiences. We show that in poorly informed economies, monetary stability depends heavily on the government's commitment to the long run value of money, whereas in economies where agents gather information more easily, monetary stability can be an endogenous outcome. We generate a dynamics on the acceptability of fiat money that resembles historical accounts of the rise and eventual colIapse of overissued paper money. Moreover, our results provide an explanation of the fact that, despite its obvious advantages, the widespread use of fiat money is a very recent development.

Information mining and visualization of data from the Brazilian Supreme Court (STF): a case study

EMAp - Escola de Matemática Aplicada

Flexible information acquisition and optimal Tobin tax in tractable dynamic global games

My dissertation focuses on dynamic aspects of coordination processes such as reversibility of early actions, option to delay decisions, and learning of the environment from the observation of other people’s actions. This study proposes the use of tractable dynamic global games where players privately and passively learn about their actions’ true payoffs and are able to adjust early investment decisions to the arrival of new information to investigate the consequences of the presence of liquidity shocks to the performance of a Tobin tax as a policy intended to foster coordination success (chapter 1), and the adequacy of the use of a Tobin tax in order to reduce an economy’s vulnerability to sudden stops (chapter 2). Then, it analyzes players’ incentive to acquire costly information in a sequential decision setting (chapter 3). In chapter 1, a continuum of foreign agents decide whether to enter or not in an investment project. A fraction λ of them are hit by liquidity restrictions in a second period and are forced to withdraw early investment or precluded from investing in the interim period, depending on the actions they chose in the first period. Players not affected by the liquidity shock are able to revise early decisions. Coordination success is increasing in the aggregate investment and decreasing in the aggregate volume of capital exit. Without liquidity shocks, aggregate investment is (in a pivotal contingency) invariant to frictions like a tax on short term capitals. In this case, a Tobin tax always increases success incidence. In the presence of liquidity shocks, this invariance result no longer holds in equilibrium. A Tobin tax becomes harmful to aggregate investment, which may reduces success incidence if the economy does not benefit enough from avoiding capital reversals. It is shown that the Tobin tax that maximizes the ex-ante probability of successfully coordinated investment is decreasing in the liquidity shock. Chapter 2 studies the effects of a Tobin tax in the same setting of the global game model proposed in chapter 1, with the exception that the liquidity shock is considered stochastic, i.e, there is also aggregate uncertainty about the extension of the liquidity restrictions. It identifies conditions under which, in the unique equilibrium of the model with low probability of liquidity shocks but large dry-ups, a Tobin tax is welfare improving, helping agents to coordinate on the good outcome. The model provides a rationale for a Tobin tax on economies that are prone to sudden stops. The optimal Tobin tax tends to be larger when capital reversals are more harmful and when the fraction of agents hit by liquidity shocks is smaller. Chapter 3 focuses on information acquisition in a sequential decision game with payoff complementar- ity and information externality. When information is cheap relatively to players’ incentive to coordinate actions, only the first player chooses to process information; the second player learns about the true payoff distribution from the observation of the first player’s decision and follows her action. Miscoordination requires that both players privately precess information, which tends to happen when it is expensive and the prior knowledge about the distribution of the payoffs has a large variance.

Object modeling for user-centered development and user interface design: the wisdom approach

João Bernardo de Sena Esteves Falcão e Cunha

Temperature during soybean seed storage and the amount of electrolytes of soaked seeds solution

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Dynamic Morse decompositions for semigroups of homeomorphisms and control systems

In this paper, we introduce the concept of dynamic Morse decomposition for an action of a semigroup of homeomorphisms. Conley has shown in [5, Sec. 7] that the concepts of Morse decomposition and dynamic Morse decompositions are equivalent for flows in metric spaces. Here, we show that a Morse decomposition for an action of a semigroup of homeomorphisms of a compact topological space is a dynamic Morse decomposition. We also define Morse decompositions and dynamic Morse decompositions for control systems on manifolds. Under certain condition, we show that the concept of dynamic Morse decomposition for control system is equivalent to the concept of Morse decomposition.

Thermoeconomic analysis method for optimization of combined heat and power systems

This article presents an thermoeconomic analysis of cogeneration plants, applied as a rational technique to produce electric power and saturated steam. The aim of this new methodology is the minimum exergetic manufacturing cost (EMC), based on the Second Law of Thermodynamics. The decision variables selected for the optimization are the pressure and the temperature of the steam leaving the boiler in the case of using steam turbine, and the pressure ratio, turbine exhaust temperature and mass flow in the case of using gas turbines. The equations for calculating the capital costs of the components and products are formulated as a function of these decision variables. An application of the method using real data of a multinational chemical industry located in São Paulo state is presented. The conditions which establish the minimum cost are presented as finals conclusions.

Thermoeconomic analysis method for optimization of combined heat and power systems - part II

In this paper, a thermoeconomic functional analysis method based on the Second Law of Thermodynamics and applied to analyze four cogeneration systems is presented. The objective of the developed technique is to minimize the operating costs of the cogeneration plant, namely exergetic production cost (EPC), assuming fixed rates of electricity production and process steam in exergy base. In this study a comparison is made between the same four configurations of part I. The cogeneration system consisting of a gas turbine with a heat recovery steam generator, without supplementary firing, has the lowest EPC. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Effect of relining, water storage and cyclic loading on the flexural strength of a denture base acrylic resin

Objectives: This study investigated the effect of relining, water storage and cyclic loading on the ultimate flexural strength (FSU) and on the flexural strength at the proportional limit (FSPl) of a denture base acrylic resin (Lucitone 550-L).Methods: Rectangular bars of L were made (64 mm x 10 mm x 2 mm) and relined (1.3 mm) with four relining resins (Kooliner-K, Ufi Gel Hard-UGH, Tokuso Rebase Fast-TR and New Truliner-NT). In addition, specimens relined with L and intact L specimens were made (64 mm x 10 mm x 3.3 mm). A three-point flexural test was applied on the specimens (n = 10) after (1) polymerization; (2) water storage (30 days); (3) cyclic loading (10,000 cycles at 5 Hz) and (4) water storage (30 days) + cyclic loading. Data (MPa) were analyzed with three-way ANOVA and Tukey's HSD tests (alpha = 0.05). To test for a possible correlation between FSU and FSPl, a linear regression coefficient 'r' was calculated.Results: After water storage, L-UGH and L-TR demonstrated an increased FSU (41.4950.64 MPa and 49.95-57.36 MPa, respectively) (P < 0.05). Only L-TR demonstrated an increased FSPl (20.58-24.21 MPa) after water storage (P < 0.05). L-L had the highest FSU (between 78.57 and 85.09 MPa) and FSPl (between 31.30 and 34.17 MPa) (P < 0.05). The cyclic loading decreased the FSU and FSPl of all materials (P < 0.05). Regression analysis showed a strong linear correlation between the two variables (r = 0.941).Conclusions: Water storage improved the FSU of L-UGH and L-TR and the FSPl of L-TR. L-L produced the highest FSU and FSPl. The FSU and FSPl of all materials were detrimentally influenced by cyclic loading.

Effect of water storage and heat treatment on the cytotoxicity of soft liners

Objective: To evaluate the effect of water storage time on the cytotoxicity of soft liners.Methods: Sample discs of soft liners Dentusoft, Dentuflex, Trusoft, Ufi-Gel-P and denture base acrylic resin Lucitone-550 were prepared and divided into four groups: GN: No treatment, G24: Stored in water at 37 degrees C for 24 h; G48: Stored in water at 37 degrees C for 48 h, GHW: Immersed in water at 55 degrees C for 10 min. To analyse the cytotoxic effect, three samples of each group were placed in tubes with Dubelcco's Modified Eagle Mediums and incubated at 37 degrees C for 24 h. During this period, the toxic substances were leached to the culture medium. The cytotoxicity was analysed quantitatively by the incorporation of radioactivity H-3-thymidine checking the number of viable cells (synthesis of DNA). The data were statistically analysed using two-way ANOVA and Tukey's honestly significant difference tests (alpha = 0.05).Results: Treatments did not reduce the cytotoxicity effect of the soft liners (p > 0.05). It was found that Ufi-Gel-P had a non-cytotoxic effect, Trusoft had a slightly cytotoxic effect, Dentuflex had a moderated cytotoxic effect, Dentusoft alternated between slightly and non-cytotoxic effect, and Lucitone-550 had non-cytotoxic effect when stored in water for 48 h.Conclusion: The effect of water storage and the heat treatment did not reduce the cytotoxicity of the soft liners.

Root Canal Area Increase Promoted by the EndoSequence and ProTaper Systems: Comparison by Computed Tomography

Introduction: The aim of this study was to compare the increase of the root canal area after instrumentation with EndoSequence or ProTaper rotary systems. Methods: Twenty-two mesial root canals from mandibular molars were instrumented. Teeth were mounted on a base, numbered, and divided into 2 groups; teeth from 1-11 (PT group) were instrumented by using the ProTaper system, and teeth from 12-22 (ES group) were instrumented by using the EndoSequence system. Cone beam computed tomography was performed on all teeth before and after instrumentation. Measurements at 3,5, and 7 mm as well as differences in instrument performance were statistically compared by the Student t test at 5% significance level. Results: Both systems increased significantly the root canal area (P < .05) at all levels. Comparison between the rotary systems showed significantly greater increase (P < .05) for EndoSequence at 3 mm, with no statistically significant difference (P < .05) at the other levels. Conclusions: Both rotary systems increased significantly the root canal area. (J Endod 2010;36:1179-1182)