947 resultados para Inductive Inference
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Strepsirhines comprise 10 living or recently extinct families, ≥50% of extant primate families. Their phylogenetic relationships have been intensively studied, but common topologies have only recently emerged; e.g. all recent reconstructions link the Lepilemuridae and Cheirogaleidae. The position of the indriids, however, remains uncertain, and molecular studies have placed them as the sister to every clade except Daubentonia, the preferred sister group of morphologists. The node subtending Afro-Asian lorisids has been similarly elusive. We probed these phylogenetic inconsistencies using a test data set including 20 strepsirhine taxa and 2 outgroups represented by 3,543 mtDNA base pairs, and 43 selected morphological characters, subjecting the data to maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference analyses, and reconstructing topology and node ages jointly from the molecular data using relaxed molecular clock analyses. Our permutations yielded compatible but not identical evolutionary histories, and currently popular techniques seem unable to deal adequately with morphological data. We investigated the influence of morphological characters on tree topologies, and examined the effect of taxon sampling in two experiments: (1) we removed the molecular data only for 5 endangered Malagasy taxa to simulate 'extinction leaving a fossil record'; (2) we removed both the sequence and morphological data for these taxa. Topologies were affected more by the inclusion of morphological data only, indicating that palaeontological studies that involve inserting a partial morphological data set into a combined data matrix of extant species should be interpreted with caution. The gap of approximately 10 million years between the daubentoniid divergence and those of the other Malagasy families deserves more study. The apparently contemporaneous divergence of African and non-daubentoniid Malagasy families 40-30 million years ago may be related to regional plume-induced uplift followed by a global period of cooling and drying. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.
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We present a model of intuitive inference, called local thinking, in which anagent combines data received from the external world with information retrieved frommemory to evaluate a hypothesis. In this model, selected and limited recall ofinformation follows a version of the respresentativeness heuristic. The model canaccount for some of the evidence on judgment biases, including conjunction anddisjunction fallacies, but also for several anomalies related to demand for insurance.
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Whereas much literature has documented difficulties in making probabilistic inferences, it hasalso emphasized the importance of task characteristics in determining judgmental accuracy.Noting that people exhibit remarkable efficiency in encoding frequency information sequentially,we construct tasks that exploit this ability by requiring people to experience the outcomes ofsequentially simulated data. We report two experiments. The first involved seven well-knownprobabilistic inference tasks. Participants differed in statistical sophistication and answered withand without experience obtained through sequentially simulated outcomes in a design thatpermitted both between- and within-subject analyses. The second experiment involvedinterpreting the outcomes of a regression analysis when making inferences for investmentdecisions. In both experiments, even the statistically naïve make accurate probabilistic inferencesafter experiencing sequentially simulated outcomes and many prefer this presentation format. Weconclude by discussing theoretical and practical implications.
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We present a leverage theory of reputation building with co-branding. We showthat under certain conditions, co-branding that links unknown firms in a new sectorwith established firms in a mature sector allows the unknown firms to signal a highproduct quality and establish their own reputation. We compare this situationwith a benchmark in which both sectors are new and firms signal their qualityonly with prices. We investigate how this comparison is affected by the nature ofthe technology linking the two sectors and a cross-sector inference problem thatconsumers might face in identifying the true cause of product failure. We find thatco-branding facilitates the process in which a Þrm in the new sector to signal itsproduct quality only if the co-branding sectors produce complementary inputs andconsumers face a cross-sector inference problem. We apply our insight to economicsof superstars, multinational firms and co-authorship.
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We present the first approach to the genetic diversity and structure of the Balearic toad (Bufo balearicus Boettger, 1880) for the island of Menorca. Forty-one individ- uals from 21 localities were analyzed for ten microsatellite loci. We used geo-refer- enced individual multilocus genotypes and a model-based clustering method for the inference of the number of populations and of the spatial location of genetic dis- continuities between those populations.¦Only six of the microsatellites analyzed were polymorphic. We revealed a northwest- ern area inhabited by a single population with several well-connected localities and another set of populations in the southeast that includes a few unconnected small units with genetically significant differences among them as well as with the individ- uals from the northwest of the island. The observed fragmentation may be explained by shifts from agricultural to tourism practices that have been taking place on the island of Menorca since the 1960s. The abandonment of rural activities in favor of urbanization and concomitant service areas has mostly affected the southeast of the island and is currently threatening the overall geographic connectivity between the different farming areas of the island that are inhabited by the Balearic toad.
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Want a glimpse at past vegetation? Studying pollen and other plant remains, which are preserved for example in lake sediments or mires for thousands of years, allows us to document regional occurrences of plant species over radiocarbon-dated time series. Such vegetation reconstructions derived from optical analyses of fossil samples are inherently incomplete because they only comprise taxa that contribute sufficient amounts of pollen, spores, macrofossil or other evidences. To complement optical analyses for paleoecological inference, molecular markers applied to ancient DNA (aDNA) may help in disclosing information hitherto inaccessible to biologists. Parducci etal. (2013) targeted aDNA from sediment cores of two lakes in the Scandes Mountains with generic primers in a meta-barcoding approach. When compared to palynological records from the same cores, respective taxon lists show remarkable differences in their compositions, but also in quantitative representation and in taxonomic resolution similar to a previous study (JOrgensen etal. 2012). While not free of assumptions that need critical and robust testing, notably the question of possible contamination, this study provides thrilling prospects to improve our knowledge about past vegetation composition, but also other organismic groups, stored as a biological treasure in the ground.
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OBJECTIVE: To measure the in vivo variations of CYP3A activity induced by anti-HIV drugs in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)1-positive patients. METHODS: A low oral dose of midazolam (MID) (0.075 mg) was given to the patients and the 30-min total 1-OH midazolam (1-OHMID)/MID ratio was determined. Patients were phenotyped either before the introduction of antiretroviral treatments (control group, 90 patients) or after a variable period of antiretroviral treatment (56 patients). Twenty-one subjects underwent multiple phenotyping tests (before and during the course of the treatment). RESULTS: The median MID ratio was 3.51 in the control group (range 0.20-14.6). It was 5-fold higher in the group with efavirenz (28 patients; median, range: 16.0, 3.81-367; P < 0.0001), 13-fold lower with nelfinavir (18 patients; 0.27, 0.06-36.3; P < 0.0001), 17-fold lower with efavirenz + ritonavir (three patients; 0.21, 0.05-0.47; P = 0.006), 50-fold lower with ritonavir (four patients; 0.07, 0.06-0.17; P = 0.0007), and 7-fold lower with nevirapine + (ritonavir or nelfinavir or grapefruit juice) (three patients; 0.48, 0.03-1.83; P = 0.03). CYP3A activity was lower in the efavirenz + ritonavir group (P = 0.01) and in the ritonavir group (P = 0.04) than in the nelfinavir group, although already strongly inhibited in the latter. CONCLUSION: The low-dose MID phenotyping test was successfully used to measure the in vivo variations of CYP3A activity induced by antiretroviral drugs. Efavirenz strongly induces CYP3A activity, while ritonavir almost completely inhibits it. Nelfinavir strongly decreases CYP3A activity, but to a lesser extent than ritonavir. The inhibition of CYP3A by ritonavir or nelfinavir offsets the inductive effects of efavirenz or nevirapine administered concomitantly. Finally, no induction of CYP3A activity was noticeable after long-term administration of ritonavir at low dosages (200 mg/day b.i.d.) or of nelfinavir at standard dosages (2,500 mg/day b.i.d.).
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In recent years there has been an explosive growth in the development of adaptive and data driven methods. One of the efficient and data-driven approaches is based on statistical learning theory (Vapnik 1998). The theory is based on Structural Risk Minimisation (SRM) principle and has a solid statistical background. When applying SRM we are trying not only to reduce training error ? to fit the available data with a model, but also to reduce the complexity of the model and to reduce generalisation error. Many nonlinear learning procedures recently developed in neural networks and statistics can be understood and interpreted in terms of the structural risk minimisation inductive principle. A recent methodology based on SRM is called Support Vector Machines (SVM). At present SLT is still under intensive development and SVM find new areas of application (www.kernel-machines.org). SVM develop robust and non linear data models with excellent generalisation abilities that is very important both for monitoring and forecasting. SVM are extremely good when input space is high dimensional and training data set i not big enough to develop corresponding nonlinear model. Moreover, SVM use only support vectors to derive decision boundaries. It opens a way to sampling optimization, estimation of noise in data, quantification of data redundancy etc. Presentation of SVM for spatially distributed data is given in (Kanevski and Maignan 2004).
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Les questions de mal-être au travail et de risques psychosociaux sont centrales dans le monde du travail actuel. L'ergonomie nous enseigne qu'une analyse des formes d'organisation du travail est nécessaire pour comprendre les origines des plaintes des travailleurs. Dans cette recherche, nous avons étudié une population spécifique, les employés du siège d'une organisation non gouvernementale humanitaire en Suisse (150 personnes environ). Partant du constat de l'expression de nombreuses plaintes de fatigue et de mal-être au travail par ces employés, nous avons cherché à objectiver ces plaintes et avons étudié les éléments d'organisation susceptibles d'y être liés.Dans le cadre d'une démarche inductive, nous avons utilisé conjointement des méthodes qualitatives (entretiens semi-directifs, observation non participante) et quantitatives (questionnaires) et avons appliqué le principe de triangulation méthodologique pour l'analyse des données.Trois thématiques relatives au mode de fonctionnement de l'organisation ont émergé des analyses : le fonctionnement dans l'urgence en permanence, la professionnalisation de l'organisation et le fort engagement des employés dans leur activité.L'organisation fonctionne selon une logique d'urgence en permanence. La nature de ses interventions, qui sont considérées de la plus haute importance, et la forte valorisation des activités « de terrain » conduisent à l'enfermement de l'activité dans la gestion des tâches urgentes, ce qui ne laisse pas de place à l'anticipation et à la planification. Ensuite, cette organisation a connu une forte croissance au cours des dernières décennies : d'une petite association, elle est devenue une véritable institution. La logique de fonctionnement institutionnelle n'est cependant pas venue remplacer totalement la logique associative, mais toutes deux cohabitent. L'organisation continue à demander à ses employés un engagement associatif et militant total mais applique parallèlement un management de type entrepreneurial, ce qui génère des messages paradoxaux pour les employés. Finalement, le fonctionnement de l'organisation dans son ensemble repose sur l'engagement de toute la chaîne des acteurs. Ceci est clairement intégré et repris par les employés du siège : ils relèvent que ce qu'ils font représente bien plus qu'un travail et qu'il est nécessaire de « tout donner », car les besoins sont immenses et la charge de travail énorme. Cependant, la limite entre engagement et surengagement conduisant à l'épuisement est très facilement franchie.Ces éléments participent à générer un environnement de travail potentiellement pathogène, où il est peu légitime pour l'employé de se préoccuper de sa propre santé, et où la charge de travail et le rythme ne lui laissent pas le temps de mettre en place des stratégies de préservation de sa santé. Ce mode de fonctionnement spécifique véhicule des messages paradoxaux et soumet les employés à des exigences contradictoires.
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The thymus develops from the third pharyngeal pouch of the anterior gut and provides the necessary environment for thymopoiesis (the process by which thymocytes differentiate into mature T lymphocytes) and the establishment and maintenance of self-tolerance. It contains thymic epithelial cells (TECs) that form a complex three-dimensional network organized in cortical and medullary compartments, the organization of which is notably different from simple or stratified epithelia. TECs have an essential role in the generation of self-tolerant thymocytes through expression of the autoimmune regulator Aire, but the mechanisms involved in the specification and maintenance of TECs remain unclear. Despite the different embryological origins of thymus and skin (endodermal and ectodermal, respectively), some cells of the thymic medulla express stratified-epithelium markers, interpreted as promiscuous gene expression. Here we show that the thymus of the rat contains a population of clonogenic TECs that can be extensively cultured while conserving the capacity to integrate in a thymic epithelial network and to express major histocompatibility complex class II (MHC II) molecules and Aire. These cells can irreversibly adopt the fate of hair follicle multipotent stem cells when exposed to an inductive skin microenvironment; this change in fate is correlated with robust changes in gene expression. Hence, microenvironmental cues are sufficient here to re-direct epithelial cell fate, allowing crossing of primitive germ layer boundaries and an increase in potency.
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The Gene Ontology (GO) (http://www.geneontology.org) is a community bioinformatics resource that represents gene product function through the use of structured, controlled vocabularies. The number of GO annotations of gene products has increased due to curation efforts among GO Consortium (GOC) groups, including focused literature-based annotation and ortholog-based functional inference. The GO ontologies continue to expand and improve as a result of targeted ontology development, including the introduction of computable logical definitions and development of new tools for the streamlined addition of terms to the ontology. The GOC continues to support its user community through the use of e-mail lists, social media and web-based resources.
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Introduction: Schizophrenia is associated with multiple neuropsychological dysfunctions, such as disturbances of attention, memory, perceptual functioning, concept formation and executive processes. These cognitive functions are reported to depend on the integrity of the prefrontal and thalamo-prefrontal circuits. Multiple lines of evidence suggest that schizophrenia is related to abnormalities in neural circuitry and impaired structural connectivity. Here, we report a preliminary case-control study that showed a correlation between thalamo-frontal connections and several cognitive functions known to be impaired in schizophrenia. Materials and Methods: We investigated 9 schizophrenic patients (DSM IV criteria, Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies) and 9 age and sex matched control subjects. We obtained from each volunteer a DT-MRI dataset (3 T, _ _ 1,000 s/mm2), and a high resolution anatomic T1. The thalamo- frontal tracts are simulated with DTI tractography on these dataset, a method allowing inference of the main neural fiber tracks from Diffusion MRI data. In order to see an eventual correlation with the thalamo-frontal connections, every subject performs a battery of neuropsychological tests including computerized tests of attention (sustained attention, selective attention and reaction time), working memory tests (Plane test and the working memory sub-tests of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale), a executive functioning task (Tower of Hanoï) and a test of visual binding abilities. Results: In a pilot case-control study (patients: n _ 9; controls: n _ 9), we showed that this methodology is appropriate and giving results in the excepted range. Considering the relation of the connectivity density and the neuropsychological data, a correlation between the number of thalamo- frontal fibers and the performance in the Tower of Hanoï was observed in the patients (Pearson correlation, r _ 0.76, p _ 0.05) but not in control subjects. In the most difficult item of the test, the least number of fibers corresponds to the worst performance of the test (fig. 2, number of supplementary movements of the elements necessary to realize the right configuration). It's interesting to note here that in an independent study, we showed that schizophrenia patients (n _ 32) perform in the most difficult item of the Tower of Hanoï (Mann-Whitney, p _ 0.005) significantly worse than control subjects (n _ 29). This has been observed in several others neuropsychological studies. Discussion: This pilot study of schizophrenia patients shows a correlation between the number of thalam-frontal fibers and the performance in the Tower of Hanoï, which is a planning and goal oriented actions task known to be associated with frontal dysfonction. This observation is consistent with the proposed impaired connectivity in schizophrenia. We aim to pursue the study with a larger sample in order to determine if other neuropsychological tests may be associated with the connectivity density.
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Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. The paper considers a data driven approach in modelling uncertainty in spatial predictions. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. It is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity, which is often difficult to achieve with two-point geostatistical models. Semi-supervised SVR is designed to integrate various kinds of conditioning data and learn dependences from them. A stochastic semi-supervised SVR model is integrated into a Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty with multiple models fitted to dynamic observations. The developed approach is illustrated with a reservoir case study. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes.
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Calbindin D-28k is a calcium-binding protein which is not expressed by dorsal root ganglion cells cultured from 6-day-old (E6) chick embryos. When soluble muscle extracts from embryos at E11, E18 or chickens 2 weeks after hatching were added immediately after seeding, dorsal root ganglia cells grown at E6 displayed neuronal subpopulations expressing calbindin immunoreactivity with time; the effect of muscle extract on the percentage of calbindin-immunoreactive dorsal root ganglia cells followed a dose-response curve. When muscle extract was added to cultures after a 3 day delay, the percentage of calbindin-expressing neurons was unchanged. The effect produced by muscle extract and, to a lesser degree, skin extract on the appearance of calbindin-positive neurons was not reproduced by brain or liver extracts while all four exerted a trophic action on cultured neurons. Hence it is assumed that muscle extract contains a factor which produces an inductive effect on the initiation of calbindin-expression by uncommitted subpopulations of sensory neurons rather than a trophic influence on the selective survival of covertly committed neuronal subpopulations. The fact that muscle extract promoted calbindin expression by dorsal root ganglia cells in neuron-enriched as well as in mixed dorsal root ganglion cell cultures indicates that the factor would act directly on sensory neurons rather than indirectly through mediation of non-neuronal cells. Since the active muscular factor was non-dialysable, heat-inactivated, trypsin-sensitive and retained by molecular filters with a cut-off of 30 K, this factor is probably a protein.
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An enormous burst of interest in the public health burden from chronic disease in Africa has emerged as a consequence of efforts to estimate global population health. Detailed estimates are now published for Africa as a whole and each country on the continent. These data have formed the basis for warnings about sharp increases in cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the coming decades. In this essay we briefly examine the trajectory of social development on the continent and its consequences for the epidemiology of CVD and potential control strategies. Since full vital registration has only been implemented in segments of South Africa and the island nations of Seychelles and Mauritius - formally part of WHO-AFRO - mortality data are extremely limited. Numerous sample surveys have been conducted but they often lack standardization or objective measures of health status. Trend data are even less informative. However, using the best quality data available, age-standardized trends in CVD are downward, and in the case of stroke, sharply so. While acknowledging that the extremely limited available data cannot be used as the basis for inference to the continent, we raise the concern that general estimates based on imputation to fill in the missing mortality tables may be even more misleading. No immediate remedies to this problem can be identified, however bilateral collaborative efforts to strength local educational institutions and governmental agencies rank as the highest priority for near term development.