Genetic Predictors of Clinical Outcomes in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality in the US. Emerging evidence has shown that host genetic factors can interact with environmental exposures to influence patient susceptibility to the diseases as well as clinical outcomes, such as survival and recurrence. We aimed to identify genetic prognostic markers for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), a major (85%) subtype of lung cancer, and also in other subgroups. With the fast evolution of genotyping technology, genetic association studies have went through candidate gene approach, to pathway-based approach, to the genome wide association study (GWAS). Even in the era of GWAS, pathway-based approach has its own advantages on studying cancer clinical outcomes: it is cost-effective, requiring a smaller sample size than GWAS easier to identify a validation population and explore gene-gene interactions. In the current study, we adopted pathway-based approach focusing on two critical pathways - miRNA and inflammation pathways. MicroRNAs (miRNA) post-transcriptionally regulate around 30% of human genes. Polymorphisms within miRNA processing pathways and binding sites may influence patients’ prognosis through altered gene regulation. Inflammation plays an important role in cancer initiation and progression, and also has shown to impact patients’ clinical outcomes. We first evaluated 240 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in miRNA biogenesis genes and predicted binding sites in NSCLC patients to determine associations with clinical outcomes in early-stage (stage I and II) and late-stage (stage III and IV) lung cancer patients, respectively. First, in 535 early-stage patients, after correcting multiple comparisons, FZD4:rs713065 (hazard ratio [HR]:0.46, 95% confidence interval [CI]:0.32-0.65) showed a significant inverse association with survival in early stage surgery-only patients. SP1:rs17695156 (HR:2.22, 95% CI:1.44-3.41) and DROSHA:rs6886834 (HR:6.38, 95% CI:2.49-16.31) conferred increased risk of progression in the all patients and surgery-only populations, respectively. FAS:rs2234978 was significantly associated with improved survival in all patients (HR:0.59, 95% CI:0.44-0.77) and in the surgery plus chemotherapy populations (HR:0.19, 95% CI:0.07-0.46).. Functional genomics analysis demonstrated that this variant creates a miR-651 binding site resulting in altered miRNA regulation of FAS, providing biological plausibility for the observed association. We then analyzed these associations in 598 late-stage patients. After multiple comparison corrections, no SNPs remained significant in the late stage group, while the top SNP NAT1:rs15561 (HR=1.98, 96%CI=1.32-2.94) conferred a significantly increased risk of death in the chemotherapy subgroup. To test the hypothesis that genetic variants in the inflammation-related pathways may be associated with survival in NSCLC patients, we first conducted a three-stage study. In the discovery phase, we investigated a comprehensive panel of 11,930 inflammation-related SNPs in three independent lung cancer populations. A missense SNP (rs2071554) in HLA-DOB was significantly associated with poor survival in the discovery population (HR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.02-2.09), internal validation population (HR: 1.51, 95% CI: 1.02-2.25), and external validation (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.01-2.29) population. Rs2900420 in KLRK1 was significantly associated with a reduced risk for death in the discovery (HR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.60-0.96) and internal validation (HR: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.61-0.99) populations, and the association reached borderline significance in the external validation population (HR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.63-1.02). We also evaluated these inflammation-related SNPs in NSCLC patients in never smokers. Lung cancer in never smokers has been increasingly recognized as distinct disease from that in ever-smokers. A two-stage study was performed using a discovery population from MD Anderson (411 patients) and a validation population from Mayo Clinic (311 patients). Three SNPs (IL17RA:rs879576, BMP8A:rs698141, and STK:rs290229) that were significantly associated with survival were validated (pCD74:rs1056400 and CD38:rs10805347) were borderline significant (p=0.08) in the Mayo Clinic population. In the combined analysis, IL17RA:rs879576 resulted in a 40% reduction in the risk for death (p=4.1 × 10-5 [p=0.61, heterogeneity test]). We also validated a survival tree created in MD Anderson population in the Mayo Clinic population. In conclusion, our results provided strong evidence that genetic variations in specific pathways that examined (miRNA and inflammation pathways) influenced clinical outcomes in NSCLC patients, and with further functional studies, the novel loci have potential to be translated into clinical use.

Geographic variation in the utilization and survival associated with oxaliplatin chemotherapy in patients with stage III colon cancer

Background: Overall objectives of this dissertation are to examine the geographic variation and socio-demographic disparities (by age, race and gender) in the utilization and survival of newly FDA-approved chemotherapy agents (Oxaliplatin-containing regimens) as well as to determine the cost-effectiveness of Oxaliplatin in a large nationwide and population-based cohort of Medicare patients with resected stage-III colon cancer. Methods: A retrospective cohort of 7,654 Medicare patients was identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results – Medicare linked database. Multiple logistic regression was performed to examine the relationship between receipt of Oxaliplatin-containing chemotherapy and geographic regions while adjusting for other patient characteristics. Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the effect of Oxaliplatin-containing chemotherapy on the survival variation across regions using 2004-2005 data. Propensity score adjustments were also made to control for potential bias related to non-random allocation of the treatment group. We used Kaplan-Meier sample average estimator to calculate the cost of disease after cancer-specific surgery to death, loss-to follow-up or censorship. Results: Only 51% of the stage-III patients received adjuvant chemotherapy within three to six months of colon-cancer specific surgery. Patients in the rural regions were approximately 30% less likely to receive Oxaliplatin chemotherapy than those residing in a big metro region (OR=0.69, p=0.033). The hazard ratio for patients residing in metro region was comparable to those residing in big metro region (HR: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.49-2.28). Patients who received Oxalipaltin chemotherapy were 33% less likely to die than those received 5-FU only chemotherapy (adjusted HR=0.67, 95% CI: 0.41-1.11). KMSA-adjusted mean payments were almost 2.5 times higher in the Oxaliplatin-containing group compared to 5-FU only group ($45,378 versus $17,856). When compared to no chemotherapy group, ICER of 5-FU based regimen was $12,767 per LYG, and ICER of Oxaliplatin-chemotherapy was $60,863 per LYG. Oxaliplatin was found economically dominated by 5-FU only chemotherapy in this study population. Conclusion: Chemotherapy use varies across geographic regions. We also observed considerable survival differences across geographic regions; the difference remained even after adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics. The cost-effectiveness of Oxaliplatin in Medicare patients may be over-estimated in the clinical trials. Our study found 5-FU only chemotherapy cost-effective in adjuvant settings in patients with stage-III colon cancer.^

Left, right and interval bivariate censored data: Evaluating screening mammography in the presence of lead -time bias, length bias and over-detection

Of the large clinical trials evaluating screening mammography efficacy, none included women ages 75 and older. Recommendations on an upper age limit at which to discontinue screening are based on indirect evidence and are not consistent. Screening mammography is evaluated using observational data from the SEER-Medicare linked database. Measuring the benefit of screening mammography is difficult due to the impact of lead-time bias, length bias and over-detection. The underlying conceptual model divides the disease into two stages: pre-clinical (T0) and symptomatic (T1) breast cancer. Treating the time in these phases as a pair of dependent bivariate observations, (t0,t1), estimates are derived to describe the distribution of this random vector. To quantify the effect of screening mammography, statistical inference is made about the mammography parameters that correspond to the marginal distribution of the symptomatic phase duration (T1). This shows the hazard ratio of death from breast cancer comparing women with screen-detected tumors to those detected at their symptom onset is 0.36 (0.30, 0.42), indicating a benefit among the screen-detected cases. ^

A single nucleotide polymorphism in the RAD51 gene modifies cancer risk in BRCA2 but not BRCA1 carriers

BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers are at increased risk for both breast and ovarian cancer, but estimates of lifetime risk vary widely, suggesting their penetrance is modified by other genetic and/or environmental factors. The BRCA1 and BRCA2 proteins function in DNA repair in conjunction with RAD51. A preliminary report suggested that a single nucleotide polymorphism in the 5′ untranslated region of RAD51 (135C/G) increases breast cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. To investigate this effect we studied 257 female Ashkenazi Jewish carriers of one of the common BRCA1 (185delAG, 5382insC) or BRCA2 (6174delT) mutations. Of this group, 164 were affected with breast and/or ovarian cancer and 93 were unaffected. RAD51 genotyping was performed on all subjects. Among BRCA1 carriers, RAD51-135C frequency was similar in healthy and affected women [6.1% (3 of 49) and 9.9% (12 of 121), respectively], and RAD-135C did not influence age of cancer diagnosis [Hazard ratio (HR) = 1.18 for disease in RAD51-135C heterozygotes, not significant]. However, in BRCA2 carriers, RAD51-135C heterozygote frequency in affected women was 17.4% (8 of 46) compared with 4.9% (2 of 41) in unaffected women (P = 0.07). Survival analysis in BRCA2 carriers showed RAD51-135C increased risk of breast and/or ovarian cancer with an HR of 4.0 [95% confidence interval 1.6–9.8, P = 0.003]. This effect was largely due to increased breast cancer risk with an HR of 3.46 (95% confidence interval 1.3–9.2, P = 0.01) for breast cancer in BRCA2 carriers who were RAD51-135C heterozygotes. RAD51 status did not affect ovarian cancer risk. These results show RAD51-135C is a clinically significant modifier of BRCA2 penetrance, specifically in raising breast cancer risk at younger ages.

Reconstitution of the hippocampal mossy fiber and associational-commissural pathways in a novel dissociated cell culture system.

Synapses of the hippocampal mossy fiber pathway exhibit several characteristic features, including a unique form of long-term potentiation that does not require activation of the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor by glutamate, a complex postsynaptic architecture, and sprouting in response to seizures. However, these connections have proven difficult to study in hippocampal slices because of their relative paucity (<0.4%) compared to commissural-collateral synapses. To overcome this problem, we have developed a novel dissociated cell culture system in which we have enriched mossy fiber synapses by increasing the ratio of granule-to-pyramidal cells. As in vivo, mossy fiber connections are composed of large dynorphin A-positive varicosities contacting complex spines (but without a restricted localization). The elementary synaptic connections are glutamatergic, inhibited by dynorphin A, and exhibit N-methyl-D-aspartate-independent long-term potentiation. Thus, the simplicity and experimental accessibility of this enriched in vitro mossy fiber pathway provides a new perspective for studying nonassociative plasticity in the mammalian central nervous system.

Validation of a new easy score to predict outcome in early stage renal cell carcinoma

Background e scopi dello studio. Il carcinoma renale rappresenta circa il 3% delle neoplasie e la sua incidenza è in aumento nel mondo. Il principale approccio terapeutico alla malattia in stadio precoce è rappresentato dalla chirurgia (nefrectomia parziale o radicale), sebbene circa il 30-40% dei pazienti vada incontro a recidiva di malattia dopo tale trattamento. La probabilità di recidivare può essere stimata per mezzo di alcuni noti modelli prognostici sviluppati integrando sia parametri clinici che anatomo-patologici. Il limite principale all’impiego nella pratica clinica di questi modelli è legata alla loro complessità di calcolo che li rende di difficile fruizione. Inoltre la stratificazione prognostica dei pazienti in questo ambito ha un ruolo rilevante nella pianificazione ed interpretazione dei risultati degli studi di terapia adiuvante dopo il trattamento chirurgico del carcinoma renale in stadio iniziale. Da un' analisi non pre-pianificata condotta nell’ambito di uno studio prospettico e randomizzato multicentrico italiano di recente pubblicazione, è stato sviluppato un nuovo modello predittivo e prognostico (“score”) che utilizza quattro semplici parametri: l’età del paziente, il grading istologico, lo stadio patologico del tumore (pT) e della componente linfonodale (pN). Lo scopo del presente studio era quello di validare esternamente tale score. Pazienti e Metodi. La validazione è stata condotta su due coorti retrospettive italiane (141 e 246 pazienti) e su una prospettica americana (1943 pazienti). Lo score testato prevedeva il confronto tra due gruppi di pazienti, uno a prognosi favorevole (pazienti con almeno due parametri positivi tra i seguenti: età < 60 anni, pT1-T3a, pN0, grading 1-2) e uno a prognosi sfavorevole (pazienti con meno di due fattori positivi). La statistica descrittiva è stata utilizzata per mostrare la distribuzione dei diversi parametri. Le analisi di sopravvivenza [recurrence free survival (RFS) e overall survival (OS)] sono state eseguite il metodo di Kaplan-Meier e le comparazioni tra i vari gruppi di pazienti sono state condotte utilizzando il Mantel-Haenszel log-rank test e il modello di regressione di Cox. Il metodo di Greenwood è stato utilizzato per stimare la varianza e la costruzione degli intervalli di confidenza al 95% (95% CI), la “C-statistic” è stata utilizzata per descrivere l’ accuratezza dello score. Risultati. I risultati della validazione dello score condotta sulle due casistiche retrospettive italiane, seppur non mostrando una differenza statisticamente significativa tra i due gruppi di pazienti (gruppo favorevole versus sfavorevole), sono stati ritenuti incoraggianti e meritevoli di ulteriore validazione sulla casistica prospettica americana. Lo score ha dimostrato di performare bene sia nel determinare la prognosi in termini di RFS [hazard ratio (HR) 1.85, 95% CI 1.57-2.17, p < 0.001] che di OS [HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.98-3.35, p < 0.001]. Inoltre in questa casistica lo score ha realizzato risultati sovrapponibili a quelli dello University of California Los Angeles Integrated Staging System. Conclusioni. Questo nuovo e semplice score ha dimostrato la sua validità in altre casistiche, sia retrospettive che prospettiche, in termini di impatto prognostico su RFS e OS. Ulteriori validazioni su casistiche internazionali sono in corso per confermare i risultati qui presentati e per testare l’eventuale ruolo predittivo di questo nuovo score.

Isotropic petroleum pitch as a carbon precursor for the preparation of activated carbons by KOH activation

Results show that it is possible to activate a low softening point isotropic petroleum pitch, without intermediate pre-treatments, by chemical activation with KOH. The chemical activation is carried out by direct heat treatment of a mixture of the isotropic pitch and KOH. It produces activated carbons (ACs) with micropore volumes as high as 1.12 cm3/g, and BET surface areas around 3000 m2/g. The activating agent/precursor ratios studied (from 1/1 to 4/1; wt./wt.) show, as expected, that increasing the ratio enhances the adsorption characteristics of the resulting AC.

Intraperitoneal bevacizumab for control of malignant ascites due to advanced-stage gastrointestinal cancers: A multicentre double-blind, placebo-controlled phase II study - AIO SUP-0108

PURPOSE: Malignant ascites is debilitating for patients with advanced cancer. As shown previously, tumour cell production of vascular endothelial growth factor might be a major cause of the formation of malignant ascites. Intraperitoneal bevacizumab could therefore be an option for symptom control in refractory ascites. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with advanced gastrointestinal cancer and malignant ascites who had undergone paracentesis at least twice within the past 4 weeks were randomly assigned in a 2:1 ratio to intraperitoneal bevacizumab (400 mg absolute) or placebo after paracentesis. During the 8-week treatment period, a minimum interval of 14 d was kept between the applications of the study drug. Primary end-point was paracentesis-free survival (ParFS). RESULTS: Fifty-three patients (median age 63 years) were randomised. Forty-nine patients received at least one study drug application and qualified for the main analysis. The proportion of patients with at least one common toxicity criteria grade III-V event was similar with 20/33 (61%) on bevacizumab and 11/16 (69%) on placebo. Median ParFS was 14 d (95% confidence interval [CI]: 11-17) in the bevacizumab arm and 10.5 d (95% CI: 7-21) on placebo (hazard ratio 0.74, 95% CI: 0.40-1.37; P = 0.16). The longest paracentesis-free period was 19 d on bevacizumab (range 6-66 d) and 17.5 d in the placebo arm (range 4-42) (P = 0.85). Median overall survival was 64 d (95% CI: 45-103) on bevacizumab compared to 31.5 d (95% CI: 20-117) on placebo (P = 0.31). CONCLUSION: Intraperitoneal bevacizumab was well tolerated. Overall, treatment did not result in a significantly better symptom control of malignant ascites. However, patients defined by specific immune characteristics may benefit.

Which Anesthesia Regimen Is Best to Reduce Morbidity and Mortality in Lung Surgery? A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND One-lung ventilation during thoracic surgery is associated with hypoxia-reoxygenation injury in the deflated and subsequently reventilated lung. Numerous studies have reported volatile anesthesia-induced attenuation of inflammatory responses in such scenarios. If the effect also extends to clinical outcome is yet undetermined. We hypothesized that volatile anesthesia is superior to intravenous anesthesia regarding postoperative complications. METHODS Five centers in Switzerland participated in the randomized controlled trial. Patients scheduled for lung surgery with one-lung ventilation were randomly assigned to one of two parallel arms to receive either propofol or desflurane as general anesthetic. Patients and surgeons were blinded to group allocation. Time to occurrence of the first major complication according to the Clavien-Dindo score was defined as primary (during hospitalization) or secondary (6-month follow-up) endpoint. Cox regression models were used with adjustment for prestratification variables and age. RESULTS Of 767 screened patients, 460 were randomized and analyzed (n = 230 for each arm). Demographics, disease and intraoperative characteristics were comparable in both groups. Incidence of major complications during hospitalization was 16.5% in the propofol and 13.0% in the desflurane groups (hazard ratio for desflurane vs. propofol, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.46 to 1.22; P = 0.24). Incidence of major complications within 6 months from surgery was 40.4% in the propofol and 39.6% in the desflurane groups (hazard ratio for desflurane vs. propofol, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.71 to 1.28; P = 0.71). CONCLUSIONS This is the first multicenter randomized controlled trial addressing the effect of volatile versus intravenous anesthetics on major complications after lung surgery. No difference between the two anesthesia regimens was evident.

Dually Active HIV/HBV Antiretrovirals Protect Against Incident Hepatitis B Infections: Potential for Prophylaxis.

BACKGROUND  Hepatitis-B virus (HBV) has a detrimental effect on HIV natural course, and HBV vaccination is less effective in the HIV infected. We examine the protective effect of dually active antiretroviral therapy (DAART) for HIV/HBV (Tenofovir/Lamivudine/Emtricitabine) in a large cohort encompassing heterosexuals, men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), and intravenous drug users (IDU), who are HIV-infected yet susceptible to HBV, with comprehensive follow-up data about risky behavior and immunological profile. METHODS  We defined an incident HBV infection as the presence of any of HBV serological markers (HBsAg/AntiHBc/HBV-DNA) following a negative baseline AntiHBc test. Patients with positive AntiHBs were excluded. Cox proportional hazard models were utilized, with an incident case of HBV infection as the outcome variable. RESULTS  We analyzed 1,716 eligible patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with 177 incident HBV cases. DAART was negatively associated with incident HBV infection (hazard ratio 0.4, 95%CI 0.2-0.6). This protective association was robust to adjustment (0.3, 0.2-0.5) for condomless sex, √CD4 count, drug use, and patients' demographics. Condomless sex (1.9,1.4-2.6), belonging to MSM (2.7,1.7-4.2) or IDU (3.8,2.4-6.1) were all associated with higher HBV hazard. CONCLUSIONS  Our study suggests that DAART, independently of CD4 count and risky behavior, has a potentially strong public health impact including pre-exposure prophylaxis of HBV co-infection.

Electrophysiologic assessment of conduction abnormalities and atrial arrhythmias associated with amyloid cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND Arrhythmias in cardiac amyloidosis (CA) result in significant comorbidity and mortality but have not been well characterized. OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to define intracardiac conduction, atrial arrhythmia substrate, and ablation outcomes in a group of advanced CA patients referred for electrophysiologic study. METHODS Electrophysiologic study with or without catheter ablation was performed in 18 CA patients. Findings and catheter ablation outcomes were compared to age- and gender-matched non-CA patients undergoing catheter ablation of persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). RESULTS Supraventricular tachycardias were seen in all 18 CA patients (1 AV nodal reentrant tachycardia, 17 persistent atrial tachycardia [AT]/AF). The HV interval was prolonged (>55 ms) in all CA patients, including 6 with normal QRS duration (≤100 ms). Thirteen supraventricular tachycardia ablations were performed in 11 patients. Of these, 7 underwent left atrial (LA) mapping and ablation for persistent AT/AF. Compared to non-CA age-matched comparator AF patients, CA patients had more extensive areas of low-voltage areas LA (63% ± 22% vs 34% ± 22%, P = .009) and a greater number of inducible ATs (3.3 ± 1.9 ATs vs 0.2 ± 0.4 ATs, P <.001). The recurrence rate for AT/AF 1 year after ablation was greater in CA patients (83% vs 25%), and the hazard ratio for postablation AT/AF recurrence in CA patients was 5.4 (95% confidence interval 1.9-35.5, P = .007). CONCLUSION In this group of patients with advanced CA and atrial arrhythmias, there was extensive conduction system disease and LA endocardial voltage abnormality. Catheter ablation persistent AT/AF in advanced CA was associated with a high recurrence rate and appears to have a limited role in control of these arrhythmias.

The Effect of Arrest on Intimate Partner Violence Recidivism

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Sexual Behavior Patterns and Condom Use in Newly Sexually Active Female University Students

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The outcome in Australian children with hyperinsulinism of infancy: early extensive surgery in severe cases lowers risk of diabetes

AIMS Hyperinsulinism of infancy (HI) is characterized by unregulated insulin secretion in the presence of hypoglycaemia, often resulting in brain damage. Pancreatic resection for control of hypoglycaemia is frequently resisted because of the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM). We investigated retrospectively 62 children with HI from nine Australian treatment centres born between 1972 and 1998, comparing endocrine and neurological outcome in 28 patients receiving medical therapy alone with 34 who required pancreatic resection to control their hypoglycaemia. METHODS History, treatment and clinical course were ascertained from file audit and interview. Risk of DM (hazard ratio) attributable to age at surgery (< vs. greater than or equal to 100 days at last pancreatectomy) and extent of resection (< vs. greater than or equal to 95%) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression and categorical variables compared by the chi(2) -test. Neurological outcome (normal, mild deficit or severe deficit) was derived from the most authoritative source. RESULTS Surgically treated patients had a greater birthweight, earlier presentation and higher plasma insulin levels. Of 18 infants < 100 days and 16 greater than or equal to 100 days of age at surgery, four (all greater than or equal to 100 days) became diabetic as an immediate consequence of surgery and five (two < 100 days and three greater than or equal to 100 days) became diabetic 7-18 years later. Surgery greater than or equal to 100 days and pancreatectomy greater than or equal to 95% were associated with development of diabetes (HR = 12.61, CI 1.53-104.07 and HR = 7.03, CI 1.43-34.58, respectively). Neurodevelopmental outcome was no different between the surgical and medical groups with 44% overall with neurological deficits. Patients euglycaemic within 35 days of the first symptom of hypoglycaemia (Group A) had a better neurodevelopmental outcome than those still hypoglycaemic > 35 days from first presentation (Group B) (P = 0.007). Prolonged hypoglycaemia in Group B was due either to delayed diagnosis or to need for repeat surgery because of continued hypoglycaemia. Within Group A, medically treated patients (who presented later with apparently milder disease) had a higher incidence of neurodevelopmental deficit (n = 15, four mild, three severe deficit) compared with surgically treated patients (n = 18, two mild, none severe deficit) (P < 0.025). CONCLUSIONS Poor neurodevelopmental outcome remains a major problem in hyperinsulinism of infancy. Risk of diabetes mellitus with pancreatectomy varies according to age at surgery and extent of resection. Patients presenting early with severe disease have a better neurodevelopmental outcome and lower risk of diabetes if they are treated with early extensive surgery.

Changes in survival after breast cancer: improvements in diagnosis or treatment?

We have compared 5-year survival rates in two cohorts of women diagnosed with breast cancer in Brisbane, Australia, between 1981-1984 and 1990-1994. Tumours diagnosed in the early 1990s were significantly smaller and less likely to have nodal involvement than those diagnosed 10 years earlier (P < 0.0001). The size difference was particularly striking for women aged over 50 at diagnosis, those targeted for screening. Five-year survival was greater among women diagnosed in the 1990s (84% vs. 74%; hazard ratio (HR) 0.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.46-0.81). After adjusting for the effects of tumour size and nodal status this difference was reduced, but women diagnosed more recently still showed improved survival (HR 0.75; 95% CI 0.56-1.01) and disease-free survival (HR 0.72; 0.56-0.92) at 5 years. This suggests that both earlier diagnosis and changes in breast cancer treatment have contributed to improved breast cancer survival. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.