Three essays in international finance

Executive Summary The first essay of this dissertation investigates whether greater exchange rate uncertainty (i.e., variation over time in the exchange rate) fosters or depresses the foreign investment of multinational firms. In addition to the direct capital financing it supplies, foreign investment can be a source of valuable technology and know-how, which can have substantial positive effects on a host country's economic growth. Thus, it is critically important for policy makers and central bankers, among others, to understand how multinationals base their investment decisions on the characteristics of foreign exchange markets. In this essay, I first develop a theoretical framework to improve our knowledge regarding how the aggregate level of foreign investment responds to exchange rate uncertainty when an economy consists of many firms, each of which is making decisions. The analysis predicts a U-shaped effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the total level of foreign investment of the economy. That is, the effect is negative for low levels of uncertainty and positive for higher levels of uncertainty. This pattern emerges because the relationship between exchange rate volatility and 'the probability of investment is negative for firms with low productivity at home (i.e., firms that find it profitable to invest abroad) and the relationship is positive for firms with high productivity at home (i.e., firms that prefer exporting their product). This finding stands in sharp contrast to predictions in the existing literature that consider a single firm's decision to invest in a unique project. The main contribution of this research is to show that the aggregation over many firms produces a U-shaped pattern between exchange rate uncertainty and the probability of investment. Using data from industrialized countries for the period of 1982-2002, this essay offers a comprehensive empirical analysis that provides evidence in support of the theoretical prediction. In the second essay, I aim to explain the time variation in sovereign credit risk, which captures the risk that a government may be unable to repay its debt. The importance of correctly evaluating such a risk is illustrated by the central role of sovereign debt in previous international lending crises. In addition, sovereign debt is the largest asset class in emerging markets. In this essay, I provide a pricing formula for the evaluation of sovereign credit risk in which the decision to default on sovereign debt is made by the government. The pricing formula explains the variation across time in daily credit spreads - a widely used measure of credit risk - to a degree not offered by existing theoretical and empirical models. I use information on a country's stock market to compute the prevailing sovereign credit spread in that country. The pricing formula explains a substantial fraction of the time variation in daily credit spread changes for Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Russia for the 1998-2008 period, particularly during the recent subprime crisis. I also show that when a government incentive to default is allowed to depend on current economic conditions, one can best explain the level of credit spreads, especially during the recent period of financial distress. In the third essay, I show that the risk of sovereign default abroad can produce adverse consequences for the U.S. equity market through a decrease in returns and an increase in volatility. The risk of sovereign default, which is no longer limited to emerging economies, has recently become a major concern for financial markets. While sovereign debt plays an increasing role in today's financial environment, the effects of sovereign credit risk on the U.S. financial markets have been largely ignored in the literature. In this essay, I develop a theoretical framework that explores how the risk of sovereign default abroad helps explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns. The intuition for this effect is that negative economic shocks deteriorate the fiscal situation of foreign governments, thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign default that would trigger a local contraction in economic growth. The increased risk of an economic slowdown abroad amplifies the direct effect of these shocks on the level and the volatility of equity returns in the U.S. through two channels. The first channel involves a decrease in the future earnings of U.S. exporters resulting from unfavorable adjustments to the exchange rate. The second channel involves investors' incentives to rebalance their portfolios toward safer assets, which depresses U.S. equity prices. An empirical estimation of the model with monthly data for the 1994-2008 period provides evidence that the risk of sovereign default abroad generates a strong leverage effect during economic downturns, which helps to substantially explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns.

Catalunya i la Comunitat de Madrid com a pols d'atracció de la inversió estrangera directa procedent de l'Asia Oriental (1996-2004)

Aquest document descriu els valors d'inversió estrangera directa de l'Àsia oriental a escala mundial durant el període 1996-2004, per a valorar la dimensió d'aquest tipus d'inversió a Catalunya i a Madrid. Relaciona els valors d'aquesta inversió amb les taxes de comerç exterior amb l'Àsia oriental i amb els valors d'immigració asiàtica a Catalunya i a Madrid.

Financial Markets and Real Ecinomy: Four Essays in International Trade

Financial markets play an important role in an economy performing various functions like mobilizing and pooling savings, producing information about investment opportunities, screening and monitoring investments, implementation of corporate governance, diversification and management of risk. These functions influence saving rates, investment decisions, technological innovation and, therefore, have important implications for welfare. In my PhD dissertation I examine the interplay of financial and product markets by looking at different channels through which financial markets may influence an economy.My dissertation consists of four chapters. The first chapter is a co-authored work with Martin Strieborny, a PhD student from the University of Lausanne. The second chapter is a co-authored work with Melise Jaud, a PhD student from the Paris School of Economics. The third chapter is co-authored with both Melise Jaud and Martin Strieborny. The last chapter of my PhD dissertation is a single author paper.Chapter 1 of my PhD thesis analyzes the effect of financial development on growth of contract intensive industries. These industries intensively use intermediate inputs that neither can be sold on organized exchange, nor are reference-priced (Levchenko, 2007; Nunn, 2007). A typical example of a contract intensive industry would be an industry where an upstream supplier has to make investments in order to customize a product for needs of a downstream buyer. After the investment is made and the product is adjusted, the buyer may refuse to meet a commitment and trigger ex post renegotiation. Since the product is customized to the buyer's needs, the supplier cannot sell the product to a different buyer at the original price. This is referred in the literature as the holdup problem. As a consequence, the individually rational suppliers will underinvest into relationship-specific assets, hurting the downstream firms with negative consequences for aggregate growth. The standard way to mitigate the hold up problem is to write a binding contract and to rely on the legal enforcement by the state. However, even the most effective contract enforcement might fail to protect the supplier in tough times when the buyer lacks a reliable source of external financing. This suggests the potential role of financial intermediaries, banks in particular, in mitigating the incomplete contract problem. First, financial products like letters of credit and letters of guarantee can substantially decrease a risk and transaction costs of parties. Second, a bank loan can serve as a signal about a buyer's true financial situation, an upstream firm will be more willing undertake relationship-specific investment knowing that the business partner is creditworthy and will abstain from myopic behavior (Fama, 1985; von Thadden, 1995). Therefore, a well-developed financial (especially banking) system should disproportionately benefit contract intensive industries.The empirical test confirms this hypothesis. Indeed, contract intensive industries seem to grow faster in countries with a well developed financial system. Furthermore, this effect comes from a more developed banking sector rather than from a deeper stock market. These results are reaffirmed examining the effect of US bank deregulation on the growth of contract intensive industries in different states. Beyond an overall pro-growth effect, the bank deregulation seems to disproportionately benefit the industries requiring relationship-specific investments from their suppliers.Chapter 2 of my PhD focuses on the role of the financial sector in promoting exports of developing countries. In particular, it investigates how credit constraints affect the ability of firms operating in agri-food sectors of developing countries to keep exporting to foreign markets.Trade in high-value agri-food products from developing countries has expanded enormously over the last two decades offering opportunities for development. However, trade in agri-food is governed by a growing array of standards. Sanitary and Phytosanitary standards (SPS) and technical regulations impose additional sunk, fixed and operating costs along the firms' export life. Such costs may be detrimental to firms' survival, "pricing out" producers that cannot comply. The existence of these costs suggests a potential role of credit constraints in shaping the duration of trade relationships on foreign markets. A well-developed financial system provides the funds to exporters necessary to adjust production processes in order to meet quality and quantity requirements in foreign markets and to maintain long-standing trade relationships. The products with higher needs for financing should benefit the most from a well functioning financial system. This differential effect calls for a difference-in-difference approach initially proposed by Rajan and Zingales (1998). As a proxy for demand for financing of agri-food products, the sanitary risk index developed by Jaud et al. (2009) is used. The empirical literature on standards and norms show high costs of compliance, both variable and fixed, for high-value food products (Garcia-Martinez and Poole, 2004; Maskus et al., 2005). The sanitary risk index reflects the propensity of products to fail health and safety controls on the European Union (EU) market. Given the high costs of compliance, the sanitary risk index captures the demand for external financing to comply with such regulations.The prediction is empirically tested examining the export survival of different agri-food products from firms operating in Ghana, Mali, Malawi, Senegal and Tanzania. The results suggest that agri-food products that require more financing to keep up with food safety regulation of the destination market, indeed sustain longer in foreign market, when they are exported from countries with better developed financial markets.Chapter 3 analyzes the link between financial markets and efficiency of resource allocation in an economy. Producing and exporting products inconsistent with a country's factor endowments constitutes a serious misallocation of funds, which undermines competitiveness of the economy and inhibits its long term growth. In this chapter, inefficient exporting patterns are analyzed through the lens of the agency theories from the corporate finance literature. Managers may pursue projects with negative net present values because their perquisites or even their job might depend on them. Exporting activities are particularly prone to this problem. Business related to foreign markets involves both high levels of additional spending and strong incentives for managers to overinvest. Rational managers might have incentives to push for exports that use country's scarce factors which is suboptimal from a social point of view. Export subsidies might further skew the incentives towards inefficient exporting. Management can divert the export subsidies into investments promoting inefficient exporting.Corporate finance literature stresses the disciplining role of outside debt in counteracting the internal pressures to divert such "free cash flow" into unprofitable investments. Managers can lose both their reputation and the control of "their" firm if the unpaid external debt triggers a bankruptcy procedure. The threat of possible failure to satisfy debt service payments pushes the managers toward an efficient use of available resources (Jensen, 1986; Stulz, 1990; Hart and Moore, 1995). The main sources of debt financing in the most countries are banks. The disciplining role of banks might be especially important in the countries suffering from insufficient judicial quality. Banks, in pursuing their rights, rely on comparatively simple legal interventions that can be implemented even by mediocre courts. In addition to their disciplining role, banks can promote efficient exporting patterns in a more direct way by relaxing credit constraints of producers, through screening, identifying and investing in the most profitable investment projects. Therefore, a well-developed domestic financial system, and particular banking system, would help to push a country's exports towards products congruent with its comparative advantage.This prediction is tested looking at the survival of different product categories exported to US market. Products are identified according to the Euclidian distance between their revealed factor intensity and the country's factor endowments. The results suggest that products suffering from a comparative disadvantage (labour-intensive products from capital-abundant countries) survive less on the competitive US market. This pattern is stronger if the exporting country has a well-developed banking system. Thus, a strong banking sector promotes exports consistent with a country comparative advantage.Chapter 4 of my PhD thesis further examines the role of financial markets in fostering efficient resource allocation in an economy. In particular, the allocative efficiency hypothesis is investigated in the context of equity market liberalization.Many empirical studies document a positive and significant effect of financial liberalization on growth (Levchenko et al. 2009; Quinn and Toyoda 2009; Bekaert et al., 2005). However, the decrease in the cost of capital and the associated growth in investment appears rather modest in comparison to the large GDP growth effect (Bekaert and Harvey, 2005; Henry, 2000, 2003). Therefore, financial liberalization may have a positive impact on growth through its effect on the allocation of funds across firms and sectors.Free access to international capital markets allows the largest and most profitable domestic firms to borrow funds in foreign markets (Rajan and Zingales, 2003). As domestic banks loose some of their best clients, they reoptimize their lending practices seeking new clients among small and younger industrial firms. These firms are likely to be more risky than large and established companies. Screening of customers becomes prevalent as the return to screening rises. Banks, ceteris paribus, tend to focus on firms operating in comparative-advantage sectors because they are better risks. Firms in comparative-disadvantage sectors finding it harder to finance their entry into or survival in export markets either exit or refrain from entering export markets. On aggregate, one should therefore expect to see less entry, more exit, and shorter survival on export markets in those sectors after financial liberalization.The paper investigates the effect of financial liberalization on a country's export pattern by comparing the dynamics of entry and exit of different products in a country export portfolio before and after financial liberalization.The results suggest that products that lie far from the country's comparative advantage set tend to disappear relatively faster from the country's export portfolio following the liberalization of financial markets. In other words, financial liberalization tends to rebalance the composition of a country's export portfolio towards the products that intensively use the economy's abundant factors.

Campaign effects in direct-democratic votes in Switzerland

The purpose of this article is to analyse the conditions under which referendum campaigns have an impact on voting choices. Based on a model of opinion formation that integrates both campaign effects and partisan effects, we argue that campaign effects vary according to the context of the popular vote (size and type of conflict among the party elite and intensity and direction of the referendum campaign). We test our hypotheses with two-step estimations for hierarchical models on data covering 25 popular votes on foreign, European and immigration policy in Switzerland. Our results show strong campaign effects and they suggest that their strength and nature are indeed highly conditional on the context of the vote: the type of party coalition pre-structures the patterns of individual voting choices, campaign effects are higher when the campaign is highly intense and they are more symmetric when it is balanced.

Country portfolios

Capital flows to developing countries are small and are mostly take the form of loans rather than direct foreign investment. We build a simple model of North-South capital flows that highlights the interplay between diminishing returns, production risk and sovereign risk. This model generates a set of country portfolios and a world distribution of capital stocks that resemble those in the data.

Health investment complementarities under competing risks

Applying the competing--risks model to multi--cause mortality,this paper provides a theoretical and empirical investigation of the positive complementarities that occur between disease--specific policy interventions. We argue that since an individual cannot die twice, competing risks imply that individuals will not waste resources on causes that are not the most immediate, but will make health investments so as to equalize cause--specific mortality. However, equal mortality risk from a variety of diseases does not imply that disease--specific public health interventions are a waste. Rather, a cause--specific intervention produces spillovers to other disease risks, so that the overall reduction in mortality will generally be larger than the direct effect measured on the targeted disease. The assumption that mortality from non--targeted diseases remains the same after a cause--specific intervention under--estimates the true effect of such programs, since the background mortality is also altered as a result of intervention. Analyzing data from one of the most important public health programs ever introduced, the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) of the United Nations, we find evidence for the existence of such complementarities, involving causes that are not biomedically, but behaviorally, linked.

Balance Between Investment Protection and Sustainable Development in BITs: the Example of Switzerland

The objective of this article is to examine how substantive and procedural rights granted to foreign investors by Swiss bits are gradually being balanced with social and environmental provisions. Switzerland has enjoyed a long bit practice, as it signed its first treaty with Tunisia fifty years ago. Swiss bits rely on the post-establishment model and include usual standards of treatment. From 1981, they also systematically provide for a dispute settlement mechanism for disputes arising between an investor and a host State. Since the Switzerland - El Salvador bit in 1994, sustainable development concerns have been expressly inserted in some Swiss bits, as well as in several recent free trade agreements. Provisions on this theme are however far from being systematic in Switzerland's bit practice and essentially remain declaratory in nature. The trend towards wider inclusion of sustainable development provisions in bits still faces several practical and political challenges.

Mating does not influence reproductive investment, in a viviparous lizard.

Mating is crucial for females that reproduce exclusively sexually and should influence their investment into reproduction. Although reproductive adjustments in response to mate quality have been tested in a wide range of species, the effect of exposure to males and mating per se has seldom been studied. Compensatory mechanisms against the absence of mating may evolve more frequently in viviparous females, which pay higher direct costs of reproduction, due to gestation, than oviparous females. To test the existence of such mechanisms in a viviparous species, we experimentally manipulated the mating opportunity of viviparous female lizard, Lacerta (Zootoca) vivipara. We assessed the effect of mating on ovulation, postpartum body condition and parturition date, as well as on changes in locomotor performances and body temperatures during the breeding cycle. Female lizards ovulated spontaneously and mating had no influence on litter size, locomotor impairment or on selected body temperature. However, offspring production induced a more pronounced locomotor impairment and physical burden than the production of undeveloped eggs. Postpartum body condition and parturition dates were not different among females. This result suggests that gestation length is not determined by an embryonic signal. In the common lizard, viviparity is not associated with facultative ovulation and a control of litter size after ovulation, in response to the absence of mating.

Does human capital stimulate investment in physical capital?: Evidence from a cost system framework

The direct effect of human capital on economic growth has been widely analysed in the economic literature. This paper, however, focuses on its indirect effect as a stimulus for private investment in physical capital. The methodological framework used is the duality theory, estimating a cost system aggregated with human capital. Empirical evidence is given for Spain for the period 1980-2000. We provide evidence on the indirect effect of human capital in making private capital investment more attractive. Among the main explanations forthis process, we observe that higher worker skill levels enable higher returns to be extracted from investment in physical capital.

Impact of quality and environmental investment on business competitiveness and profitability: The case of travel agencies

Few studies have examined the combined effect of implementing quality and environmental management within the service sector. This void is more evident if we focus on segments in which small businesses predominate and even more so if we look for highly competitive sectors that are very variable and that have high business mortality. After analysing 198 surveys of Spanish travel agency managers using structural equations, it can be concluded that practices of quality management have a significant direct impact on business competitiveness but not on this business's financial results, at least directly. However, there is a significant relationship between environmental management practices and economic benefits. This article suggests that commitment to quality and the environment can allow small businesses in the service sector to have a competitive advantage that will separate surviving and ceased operations, particularly in sectors that are rapidly evolving and highly competitive.

Multidetector-row computed tomography in the preoperative diagnosis of intestinal complications caused by clinically unsuspected ingested dietary foreign bodies: a case series emphasizing the use of volume rendering techniques

Objective The present study was aimed at describing a case series where a preoperative diagnosis of intestinal complications secondary to accidentally ingested dietary foreign bodies was made by multidetector-row computed tomography (MDCT), with emphasis on complementary findings yielded by volume rendering techniques (VRT) and curved multiplanar reconstructions (MPR). Materials and Methods The authors retrospectively assessed five patients with surgically confirmed intestinal complications (perforation and /or obstruction) secondary to unsuspected ingested dietary foreign bodies, consecutively assisted in their institution between 2010 and 2012. Demographic, clinical, laboratory and radiological data were analyzed. VRT and curved MPR were subsequently performed. Results Preoperative diagnosis of intestinal complications was originally performed in all cases. In one case the presence of a foreign body was not initially identified as the causal factor, and the use of complementary techniques facilitated its retrospective identification. In all cases these tools allowed a better depiction of the entire foreign bodies on a single image section, contributing to the assessment of their morphology. Conclusion Although the use of complementary techniques has not had a direct impact on diagnostic performance in most cases of this series, they may provide a better depiction of foreign bodies' morphology on a single image section.

Does human capital stimulate investment in physical capital? Evidence from a cost system framework

The direct effect of human capital on economic growth has been widely analysed in the economic literature. This paper, however, focuses on its indirect effect as a stimulus for private investment in physical capital. The methodological framework used is the duality theory, estimating a cost system aggregated with human capital. Empirical evidence is given for Spain for the period 1980-2000. We provide evidence on the indirect effect of human capital in making private capital investment more attractive. Among the main explanations for this process, we observe that higher worker skill levels enable higher returns to be extracted from investment in physical capital.

Panorama de propriedade intelectual, transferência de tecnologia e inovação da química brasileira e a comparação com os países do BRIC

Based on Science, Technology & Innovation (ST&I) indicators, Brazil is a competitive and interesting country from the point of view of technological foreign investment. However, it is still incipient with regard to national investments, production of technological knowledge, inbound mobility of scientists and technology transfer to the productive sector. Among many other factors, global patent production is considered as an important indicator of innovation. Likewise, the balance between revenue and expenses obtained through royalties and licensing fees of technologies is also critical in mapping the diffusion and absorption of knowledge. The understanding of intellectual property and its strategic management brings a significant advantage to the economic and technological development of nations, especially in the field of chemistry, which greatly contributes to biotechnology, new materials and microelectronics - three fundamental areas for innovation in developed countries. Therefore, this article aims to map out competencies in chemistry in Brazil and evaluate science, technology and innovation indicators in the country, comparing this dynamic to the one of other BRIC members (Russia, India and China). Chemistry is the fourth biggest field of interest in Brazil based on the number of researchers registered at the governmental platform for researchers, Plataforma Lattes/CNPq, and is preceded by education, medicine and agronomy. The majority of research groups are registered in the area of materials, followed by macromolecules and polymers, pharmaceutical products and basic materials chemistry. These groups represent approximately 77% of research groups analyzed, therefore, indicating a tendency in the country. The analyses of patents in different sub-areas of chemistry reveal that non-residents file most deposits in the country, a probable reflection of the low internal intellectual property culture. Pharmaceutics and Fine Chemistry are prominent areas in the country, in line with the global trend. Among BRIC countries, China has the highest number of patents and of requests for protection in international offices. On the other hand, Brazil has the lowest number of chemical patents published at USPTO, EPO and JPO. An analysis of the transfer of technology data indicates an increase in this activity in various sub-areas of chemistry in the country. Despite the great efforts made by the country to consolidate its national innovation system, more needs to be done to put Brazil in a competitive position. In a globalized world dominated by large players, Brazil needs a lot of progress on ownership and generation of chemistry technologies to strengthen its national sovereignty. It is essential to strengthen chemical research at all levels, from elementary school to university, as an inexhaustible source of knowledge and technology that, when properly protected, may generate real public achievement and social return.

Diversification benefits for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor: Real Estate Investment Trusts in the USA

This thesis examined both domestic and international forest investment options for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor. The focus was on forest-based investment instruments. The influence of movements of currency exchange rates on foreign returns were also taken into account. Annual data from 1995 to 2011 was used. The main portfolio optimization model in this study was the Mean-Variance model but the results were also validated by using the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall models. In addition, the exchange rate risk hedging was established by using one-week-maturity forward contracts. The results suggested that 75 % of the total wealth should be invested in Finnish private forests and the rest, 25 %, to a US REIT, in this case Rayonier. With hedging, the total return on the portfolio was 7.21 % (NIPF 5.3%) with the volatility of 6.63 % (NIPF 7.9%). Taxation supported US investments in this case. As a conclusion, a Finnish private forest investor may, as evidenced, benefit in diversifying a portfolio using REITs in the US.

Elinkaarihankkeen rakennusliikeriskit

Tiivistelmä: Elinkaaren palvelumallit ovat suosittuja julkisten palveluiden hankintamuotoja Iso-Britanniassa. PPP–malli on yksi monista julkisten palvelujen kumppanuusmalleista, josta on tullut joissakin kunnissa yhä suositumpi hankintamalli myös Suomessa. Tämä on seurausta kuntien tiukasta taloustilanteesta, jossa PPP–hankkeen katsotaan mahdollistavan julkisen sektorin investoinnit joutumatta leikkaamaan muita pakollisia hankintoja. Kuitenkin koko elinkaaren kattavat palvelutarjonnan hankintamallit ovat vielä melko uusia malleja ja meillä on tarve löytää toimivia sopimusmalleja ja käytäntöjä, jotta hankkeista saadaan rakennusliikettä kiinnostavia liiketoimintamalleja. Ulkomailla elinkaarihankkeista on tehty monia tutkimuksia ja konsultit ovat kääntäneet niitä omiin tarkoituksiinsa sopiviksi. Kuitenkin Suomen lainsäädäntö on erilainen julkisten palveluiden tuottamisessa, erityisesti lakisääteisissä terveydenhuoltopalveluissa, vesi- ja jätevesihuollossa, vankeinhoidossa, ja niin edelleen. Tästä näkökulmasta ulkomailla tehdyt tutkimukset eivät sellaisenaan sovi Suomeen käytettäviksi. Esimerkiksi tutkimuksissa esitetään, että elinkaarihankkeet tuottavat pitkän aikavälin kassavirtaan, mutta tämä etu koskee vain rahoittaja ja kiinteistöpalvelu yrityksiä - ei rakennusyritystä. Tutkimuksissa mainitaan myös muista elinkaarihankkeiden mahdollisuuksista, jotka jäävät kuitenkin rakennusliikkeen näkökulmasta epäselviksi. Perinteisiin rakennuttamisen malleihin verrattuna elinkaarihankkeiden sopimusmenettelyt ovat monimutkaisempia sekä aikaa vievempiä ja sopijaosapuolten yhteistyö elinkaarihankkeissa on välttämätöntä. Käytännössä elinkaarihankkeiden riskienjako nähdään julkisen sektorin ja yksityisen sektorin välillä yksipuoliseksi. Jotta elinkaarimalli yleistyisi Suomessa, niin elinkaarisopimuksen riskienjaosta on tehtävä tasapuolinen ja käyttäjä pitää saada myös riskejä kantamaan. Tässä työssä keskitytään arvioimaan elinkaarimallien keskeisiä menestystekijöitä ja riskitekijöitä ja löytää mahdollisia tapoja tehdä hankintaprosessista helppoa ja sujuvaa. Samalla yritetään selvittää, miten elinkaarihankkeesta saadaan rakennusliikkeen kannalta menestyvää liiketoimintaa. Johtopäätökset perustuvat aikaisempiin tutkimuksiin ja empiiriseen tapaustutkimukseen. Työssä arvioidaan niitä seikkoja, jotka vaikuttavat yksityisen sektorin tarjouspäätökseen. Arvioinnissa erotetaan toisistaan kolme erillistä riskitekijää; tarjouksen tekemisen riskit, rakennushankkeen riskit ja elinkaaren aikaiset riskit. Työssä todetaan, että aikaisemmat tutkimukset ovat riittämättömiä rakennusliikkeen riskien arvioimiseen.