Regional Policy Spillovers: The National Impact of Demand-Side Policy in an Interregional Model of the UK Economy

UK regional policy has been advocated as a means of reducing regional disparities and stimulating national growth. However, there is limited understanding of the interregional and national effects of such a policy. This paper uses an interregional computable general equilibrium model to identify the national impact of a policy-induced regional demand shock under alternative labour market closures. Our simulation results suggest that regional policy operating solely on the demand side has significant national impacts. Furthermore, the effects on the non-target region are particularly sensitive to the treatment of the regional labour market.

The Impact of Population Ageing on the Labour Market: Evidence from Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model of Scotland

This paper presents a dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model of Scotland. The model is used to examine the impact of population ageing on the labour market. More specifically, it is used to evaluate the effects of labour force decline and labour force ageing on key macro-economic variables. The second effect is assumed to operate through age-specific productivity and labour force participation. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to how population ageing impinges on the government expenditure constraint. The basic structure of the model follows in the Auerbach and Kotlikoff tradition. However, the model takes into consideration directly age-specific mortality. This is analogous to “building in” a cohort-component population projection structure to the model, which allows more complex and more realistic demographic scenarios to be considered.

The Impact of Population Ageing on House Prices: A Micro-simulation Approach

This paper attempts to estimate the impact of population ageing on house prices. There is considerable debate about whether population ageing puts downwards or upwards pressure on house prices. The empirical approach differs from earlier studies of this relationship, which are mainly regression analyses of macro time-series data. A micro-simulation methodology is adopted that combines a macro-level house price model with a micro-level household formation model. The case study is Scotland, a country that is expected to age rapidly in the future. The parameters of the household formation model are estimated with panel data from the British Household Panel Survey covering the period 1999-2008. The estimates are then used to carry out a set of simulations. The simulations are based on a set of population projections that represent a considerable range in the rate of population ageing. The main finding from the simulations is that population ageing—or more generally changes in age structure—is not likely a main determinant of house prices, at least in Scotland.

Extending contingency: the impact of strategy, technology, size and business environment on the organisational form of small Chinese firms

This paper is inspired by articles in the last decade or so that have argued for more attention to theory, and to empirical analysis, within the well-known, and long-lasting, contingency framework for explaining the organisational form of the firm. Its contribution is to extend contingency analysis in three ways: (a) by empirically testing it, using explicit econometric modelling (rather than case study evidence) involving estimation by ordered probit analysis; (b) by extending its scope from large firms to SMEs; (c) by extending its applications from Western economic contexts, to an emerging economy context, using field work evidence from China. It calibrates organizational form in a new way, as an ordinal dependent variable, and also utilises new measures of familiar contingency factors from the literature (i.e. Environment, Strategy, Size and Technology) as the independent variables. An ordered probit model of contingency was constructed, and estimated by maximum likelihood, using a cross section of 83 private Chinese firms. The probit was found to be a good fit to the data, and displayed significant coefficients with plausible interpretations for key variables under all the four categories of contingency analysis, namely Environment, Strategy, Size and Technology. Thus we have generalised the contingency model, in terms of specification, interpretation and applications area.

The Impact of Population Ageing on the Labour Market: Evidence from Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model of Scotland

This paper presents a dynamic Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) model of Scotland. The model is used to examine the impact of population ageing on the labour market. More specifically, it is used to evaluate the effects of labour force decline and labour force ageing on key macro-economic variables. The second effect is assumed to operate through age-specific productivity and labour force participation. In the analysis, particular attention is paid to how population ageing impinges on the government expenditure constraint. The basic structure of the model follows in the Auerbach and Kotlikoff tradition. However, the model takes into consideration directly age-specific mortality. This is analogous to “building in” a cohort-component population projection structure to the model, which allows more complex and more realistic demographic scenarios to be considered.

Impact of a Cleft Lip and/or Palate on Maternal Stress and Attachment Representations.

Objective : The announcement, prenatally or at birth, of a cleft lip and/or palate represents a challenge for the parents. The purpose of this study is to identify parental working internal models of the child (parental representations of the child and relationship in the context of attachment theory) and posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms in mothers of infants born with a cleft. Method : The study compares mothers with a child born with a cleft (n  =  22) and mothers with a healthy infant (n  =  36). Results : The study shows that mothers of infants with a cleft more often experience insecure parental working internal models of the child and more posttraumatic stress symptoms than mothers of the control group. It is interesting that the severity or complexity of the cleft is not related to parental representations and posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms. The maternal emotional involvement, as expressed in maternal attachment representations, is higher in mothers of children with a cleft who had especially high posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms, as compared with mothers of children with a cleft having fewer posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms. Discussion : Mothers of children with a cleft may benefit from supportive therapy regarding parent-child attachment, even when they express low posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms.

The Impact of Information Provision on Agglomeration Bonus Performance: An Experimental Study on Local Networks

The Agglomeration Bonus (AB) is a mechanism to induce adjacent landowners to spatially coordinate their land use for the delivery of ecosystem services from farmland. This paper uses laboratory experiments to explore the performance of the AB in achieving the socially optimal land management configuration in a local network environment where the information available to subjects varies. The AB poses a coordination problem between two Nash equilibria: a Pareto dominant and a risk dominant equilibrium. The experiments indicate that if subjects are informed about both their direct and indirect neighbors’ actions, they are more likely to coordinate on the Pareto dominant equilibrium relative to the case where subjects have information about their direct neighbors’ action only. However, the extra information can only delay – and not prevent – the transition to the socially inferior risk dominant Nash equilibrium. In the long run, the AB mechanism may only be partially effective in enhancing delivery of ecosystem services on farming landscapes featuring local networks.

The role of education in equity portfolios during the recent financial crisis

Using a panel of 38 economies, over the period 2001 to 2010, we analyse the link between diversification in equity portfolios and different facets of education. We find that traditionally used measures of education play an important role in reducing equity home bias. After separating countries according to their level of financial development, we find that less developed economies tend to benefit more from an improvement in the level of education compared to their more developed counterparts. We also find that the beneficial effect of education is more pronounced during the most recent financial crisis, especially for economies with less developed financial markets.

A Comparison of the poverty impact of transfers, taxes and market income across five OECD Countries

This paper compares the poverty reduction impact of income sources, taxes and transfers across five OECD countries. Since the estimation of that impact can depend on the order in which the various income sources are introduced into the analysis, it is done by using the Shapley value. Estimates of the poverty reduction impact are presented in a normalized and un-normalized fashion, in order to take into into account the total as well as the per dollar impacts. The methodology is applied to data from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) database.

Impact of disease and treatments on growth and puberty of pediatric patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

Growth retardation, associated with delayed puberty, is a frequent feature in pediatric patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), especially with Crohn's disease. It is mainly induced by malnutrition and the effects of the inflammatory process on the growth hormone/insulin-like growth factor-1 axis or on the growth plate. Therefore, control of disease activity and mucosal healing are paramount to promote growth and adequate pubertal onset. Current therapeutic strategies for maintenance in IBD include anti-inflammatory drugs, immunosuppressives, and, more recently, biologic agents. Although these treatments are efficient in minimizing inflammation and inducing prolonged remission, their long-term effects on growth and final height remain controversial. Furthermore, glucocorticoid therapy, even though very efficient in inducing remission, clearly shows deleterious effects on growth, which is not the case for exclusive enteral nutrition showing comparable results regarding induction of remission. Thus regular assessment of weight, height and pubertal stage is essential in children and adolescents with chronic disease, namely IBD.

Impact of genetic polymorphisms in cytomegalovirus glycoprotein B on outcomes in solid-organ transplant recipients with cytomegalovirus disease.

BACKGROUND:It is unknown whether specific viral polymorphisms affect in vivo therapeutic response in patients with cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease. Polymorphisms in the CMV glycoprotein B (gB) gene allow discrimination of 4 distinct genotypes (gB1-gB4). We assessed the influence of gB genotypes on the clinical and virologic outcome of CMV disease. METHODS:Solid-organ transplant recipients enrolled in a multicenter trial of CMV disease treatment (VICTOR study) were included in this study. CMV gB genotyping was performed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction at day 0 (start of antiviral therapy). RESULTS:Among 239 patients with CMV disease, the prevalence of gB strain types was 26% for gB1, 10% for gB2, 10% for gB3, and 5% for gB4, whereas mixed infections were present in 49%. Donor-seropositive/recipient-seropositive patients were more likely to have mixed gB infection than donor-seropositive/recipient-seronegative patients (40% vs. 12%; P = .001). Median baseline viral loads were higher and time to viral eradication was longer ( P = .006 and P = .026 , respectively) for mixed infection versus infection with a single genotype. In a multivariate model, mixed gB infection was a significant predictor of failure to eradicate virus by day 21 (mixed vs single genotype; odds ratio, 2.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-5.38; P = .007 ) after controlling for baseline viral load, CMV serostatus at baseline, ganciclovir resistance, and antiviral treatment. No effect of gB genotype was seen on virologic or clinical CMV recurrence. CONCLUSIONS:No specific gB genotype appears to confer a specific CMV virulence advantage. However, mixed gB genotype infections are associated with higher viral loads and delayed viral clearance.

Impact of the C2/C6 ratio of high-molecular-weight hydroxyethyl starch on pharmacokinetics and blood coagulation in pigs

Rapport de synthèse : Contexte: l'hydroxyéthylamidon (HEA) est largement utilisé comme expanseur volémique en anesthésiologie et réanimation. Cependant, cette classe de produits perturbe le system de la coagulation. Des améliorations restent possibles dans le choix de la combinaison optimale de poids moléculaire, de degré de substitution en radicaux éthyle et de localisation de ces radicaux sur le squelette glucidique des polymères, afin d'optimiser leur efficacité et leur tolérance. L'HEA de poids moléculaire élevé et faiblement substitué n'affecte pas plus la coagulation sanguine que de l'HEA de bas poids moléculaire faiblement substitué. Nous examinons in vivo l'effet d'un abaissement du rapport C2/C6 sur les caractéristiques pharmacocinétiques et l'impact sur la coagulation sanguine d'un HEA de haut poids moléculaire faiblement substitué. Matériels et méthode: nous comparons dans une étude prospective, randomisée et parallèle l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 avec l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 auprès de 30 cochons. Avant, pendant et jusqu'à 630 minutes après une perfusion de 30 ml/kg d'HEA, des échantillons sanguins ont été collectés pour mesurer les concentrations d'HEA, les tests de coagulation plasmatique classiques et la coagulation sanguine par thrombélastographie (TEG®, Haemoscope Corporation, Niles, II, U.S.). Les paramètres pharmacocinétiques ont été estimés en adaptant un modèle à deux compartiments. Résultats: la constante d'élimination est de 0.009 ± 0.001 (min-1) pour l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et 0.007 ± 0.001 (min-1) pour l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p<0.001); la surface sous la courbe de concentration est de 1374 ± 340 min*g/L pour l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et 1697 ± 411 min*g/L pour l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p=0.026). Les concentrations mesurées d'HEA ne montrent pas de différence entre l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6. Les deux solutions d'HEA affectent de façon identique la coagulation sanguine: l'index de coagulation thrombélastographique diminue pareillement à ta fin de la perfusion d'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et d'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p=0.29). De même, le temps de thromboplastine partielle activée et le temps de prothrombine augmentent de manière similaire pour l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p=0.83). Conclusion: la réduction du rapport C2/C6 de l'HEA de poids moléculaire élevé et faiblement substitué aboutit à une élimination légèrement accélérée d'HEA. Cependant, elle ne modifie pas l'effet perturbateur sur la coagulation.

The clinical and biological impact of new pathogen inactivation technologies on platelet concentrates.

Since 1990, several techniques have been developed to photochemically inactivate pathogens in platelet concentrates, potentially leading to safer transfusion therapy. The three most common methods are amotosalen/UVA (INTERCEPT Blood System), riboflavin/UVA-UVB (MIRASOL PRT), and UVC (Theraflex-UV). We review the biology of pathogen inactivation methods, present their efficacy in reducing pathogens, discuss their impact on the functional aspects of treated platelets, and review clinical studies showing the clinical efficiency of the pathogen inactivation methods and their possible toxicity.

The Causal effect of education on aggregate income

Empirical studies assume that the macro Mincer return on schooling is con- stant across countries. Using a large sample of countries this paper shows that countries with a better quality of education have on average relatively higher macro Mincer coeficients. As rich countries have on average better educational quality, differences in human capital between countries are larger than has been typically assumed in the development accounting literature. Consequently, factor accumulation explains a considerably larger share of income differences across countries than what is usually found.