Misleading Population Estimates: Biases and Consistency of Visual Surveys and Matrix Modelling in the Endangered Bearded Vulture

Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the “cryptic” fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3–5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.

Effects of housing, perches, genetics, and 25-hydroxycholecalciferol on keel bone deformities in laying hens

Several studies have shown a high prevalence of keel bone deformities in commercial laying hens. The aim of this project was to assess the effects of perch material, a vitamin D feed additive (25-hydroxyvitamin D(3); HyD, DSM Nutritional Products, Basel, Switzerland), and genetics on keel bone pathology. The study consisted of 2 experiments. In the first experiment, 4,000 Lohmann Selected Leghorn hens were raised in aviary systems until 18 wk of age. Two factors were investigated: perch material (plastic or rubber-coated metal) and feed (with and without HyD). Afterward, the hens were moved to a layer house with 8 pens with 2 aviary systems. Daily feed consumption, egg production, mortality, and feather condition were evaluated. Every 6 wk, the keel bones of 10 randomly selected birds per pen were palpated and scored. In the second experiment, 2,000 Lohmann Brown (LB) hens and 2,000 Lohmann Brown parent stock (LBPS) hens were raised in a manner identical to the first experiment. During the laying period, the hens were kept in 24 identical floor pens but equipped with different perch material (plastic or rubber-coated metal). The same variables were investigated as in the first experiment. No keel bone deformities were found during the rearing period in either experiment. During the laying period, deformities gradually appeared and reached a prevalence of 35% in the first experiment and 43.8% in the second experiment at the age of 65 and 62 wk, respectively. In the first experiment, neither HyD nor the aviary system had any significant effect on the prevalence of keel bone deformities. In the second experiment, LBPS had significantly fewer moderate and severe deformities than LB, and rubber-coated metal perches were associated with a higher prevalence of keel bone deformities compared with plastic perches. The LBPS laid more but smaller eggs than the LB. Again, HyD did not affect the prevalence of keel bone deformities. However, the significant effect of breed affiliation strongly indicates a sizeable genetic component that may provide a basis for targeted selection.

The Choice of Expedient Regulatory Controls on Housing Market Using Short-Term Equilibria Model

Khutoretsky dealt with the problem of maximising a linear utility function (MUF) over the set of short-term equilibria in a housing market by reducing it to a linear programming problem, and suggested a combinatorial algorithm for this problem. Two approaches to the market adjustment were considered: the funding of housing construction and the granting of housing allowances. In both cases, locally optimal regulatory measures can be developed using the corresponding dual prices. The optimal effects (with the regulation expenditures restricted by an amount K) can be found using specialised models based on MUF: a model M1 for choice of the optimum structure of investment in housing construction, and a model M2 for optimum distribution of housing allowances. The linear integer optimisation problems corresponding to these models are initially difficult but can be solved after slight modifications of the parameters. In particular, the necessary modification of K does not exceed the maximum construction cost of one dwelling (for M1) or the maximum size of one housing allowance (for M2). The result is particularly useful since slight modification of K is not essential in practice.

Studying students' opinions : using surveys in writing program assessment

Administrators of writing programs are regularly faced with the problem of assessing the learning that students gain in their coursework. Many methods of assessment exist, but most have some problems associated with them related to the amount of time it takes to perform the study or the scope of the knowledge gained relative to number of participants or volume of information collected. This pilot study investigates the use of surveys of student opinion for their potential to assess composition instruction at Michigan Technological University. The primary goal of this pilot study is to test the effectiveness of using data collected in surveys to make recommendations for improvement of the composition program at Michigan Tech. The report concludes with recommendations for additional study and refinements to the instruments used.