Mission Report: Backstopping the monitoring of the Rural Development Programe in Northern Mozambique, 2 to 17 July 2005

CDE Mission report

Mission Report August 2005: Backstopping the monitoring of the Rural Development Programe in Northern Mozambique

Full mission report on an impact monitoring workshop held in Nampula with Helvetas and other implementing agencies of SDC Rural Development Programme, Northern Mozambique

"Ripple Effects" and Forecasting Home Prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix

We examine the time-series relationship between housing prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. First, temporal Granger causality tests reveal that Los Angeles housing prices cause housing prices in Las Vegas (directly) and Phoenix (indirectly). In addition, Las Vegas housing prices cause housing prices in Phoenix. Los Angeles housing prices prove exogenous in a temporal sense and Phoenix housing prices do not cause prices in the other two markets. Second, we calculate out-of-sample forecasts in each market, using various vector autoregessive (VAR) and vector error-correction (VEC) models, as well as Bayesian, spatial, and causality versions of these models with various priors. Different specifications provide superior forecasts in the different cities. Finally, we consider the ability of theses time-series models to provide accurate out-of-sample predictions of turning points in housing prices that occurred in 2006:Q4. Recursive forecasts, where the sample is updated each quarter, provide reasonably good forecasts of turning points.

Using Leading Indicators to Forecast US Home Sales in a Bayesian VAR Framework

This paper uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to examine the usefulness of leading indicators in predicting US home sales. The benchmark Bayesian model includes home sales, the price of homes, the mortgage rate, real personal disposable income, and the unemployment rate. We evaluate the forecasting performance of six alternative leading indicators by adding each, in turn, to the benchmark model. Out-of-sample forecast performance over three periods shows that the model that includes building permits authorized consistently produces the most accurate forecasts. Thus, the intention to build in the future provides good information with which to predict home sales. Another finding suggests that leading indicators with longer leads outperform the short-leading indicators.

Factors associated with home health care costs

Characteristics of Medicare-certified home health agencies in Texas and the contributions of selected agency characteristics on home health care costs were examined. Cost models were developed and estimated for both nursing and total visit costs using multiple regression procedures. The models included home health agency size, profit status, control, hospital-based affiliation, contract-cost ratio, service provision, competition, urban-rural input-price differences, and selected measures of patient case-mix. The study population comprised 314 home health agencies in Texas that had been certified at least one year on July, 1, 1986. Data for the analysis were obtained from Medicare Cost Reports for fiscal year ending between July 1, 1985 to June 30, 1986.^ Home health agency size, as measured by the logs of nursing and total visits, has a statistically significant negative linear relationship with nursing visit and total visit costs. Nursing and total visit costs decrease at a declining rate as size increases. The size-cost relationship is not altered when controlling for any other agency characteristic. The number of visits per patient per year, a measure of patient case-mix, is also negatively related to costs, suggesting that costs decline with care of chronic patients. Hospital-based affiliation and urban location are positively associated with costs. Together, the four characteristics explain 19 percent of the variance in nursing visit costs and 24 percent of the variance in total visit costs.^ Profit status and control, although correlated with other agency characteristics, exhibit no observable effect on costs. Although no relationship was found between costs and competition, contract cost ratio, or the provision on non-reimburseable services, no conclusions can be made due to problems with measurement of these variables. ^

Feeding practices and their associations with diarrhea incidence in a cohort of rural Egyptian infants

A study was conducted in 4 villages in Bilbeis, Egypt, to document the infant feeding practices and identify their determinants, and examine the associations between feeding practices and diarrhea incidence in infants. A cohort of 152 infants were followed from birth with twice-weekly home visits to record feeding practices and diarrheal illness. Cross-sectional information was obtained about child birth; early neonatal feeding practices; and the socioeconomic, demographic, and water and sanitation characteristics of study families.^ Prelacteal fees were given to 60% of the infants. Nineteen percent of the infants were wet nursed at least once during the first week of life. Breast-feeding prevalence declined from 100% among infants aged less than 12 weeks to 84% among those aged 44-47 weeks. The prevalence of exclusive breast-feeding among breast-fed infants was 38% in those aged less than 4 weeks, increased to 54% in age period 4-7 weeks, and then declined rapidly to 4% in age period 24-27 weeks. The patterns and determinants of consumption by breast-fed infants of specific supplements were examined in detail.^ Between birth and age 47 weeks, the diarrhea incidence rate per person-year among breast-fed infants (6.84 episodes) was identical to the rate among all infants (6.89 episodes). In age period 0-11 weeks, the diarrhea incidence rate among breast-fed infants receiving supplements was 1.3 times (95% confidence interval: 0.9-2.0) higher than the rate among those exclusively breast-fed. In other age periods, diarrhea incidence was generally nonsignificantly higher among exclusively breast-fed infants than among those partially breast-fed and those completely weaned.^ Both univariate and multivariate analyses were done to examine the associations between diarrhea incidence and the consumption by breast-fed infants of specific supplements. After multivariate adjustment, supplements that showed significant, borderline, or suggestive positive associations with diarrhea incidence were cereal-water, cheese, raw vegetables, and 'other' foods. Significant, borderline, or suggestive negative associations were observed between diarrhea incidence and the intake of fresh animal milk, and potatoes.^ To reduce the risk of diarrhea, indiscriminate use of supplements among Bilbeis infants aged less than 12 weeks should be strongly discouraged. While mothers in this area should be educated about methods of safer preparation, handling, storage, and administration of all weaning foods, their attention should be particularly drawn to the 4 foods that were found to be positively associated with diarrhea incidence among infants in this study. ^

Editorial: Take Me Home, Down Country Roads

Those of us committed to the tenets of Family Preservation must advocate for increased awareness and attention to the needs of children and their families in rural America. "Country roads" and the rural spaces they traverse have been eulogized by many poets and song writers as ideal places to live. But they may not be ideal for everyone. The past few months, it has become all too evident that rural America is not immune to acts of extreme violence by troubled children. Even though almost 1/3 of American youth live in rural areas, they have been "virtually ignored by mental health service planners and providers"(Cutrona, Halvorson, & Russell, 1996, p. 217). Mental health risk factors such as poverty, parental alcohol abuse, and family instability are on the rise in rural areas, and there has been an increase in suicide attempts, family violence, depression, and alcohol abuse (Cutrona, Halvorson, & Russell, 1996; Petti & Leviton, 1986; National Mental Health Association, 1988). Native Americans are especially concerned about the increases in child abuse and neglect, depression, substance abuse, and suicide in their communities.

Case Study of Applied LIP Approach/Activities in the Philippines The Training Services Enhancement Project for Rural Life Improvement (TSEP-RLI) Experience

TSEP-RLI was a technical cooperation project jointly conducted by GOP thru DA-Agricultural Training Institute (ATI) and GOJ thru JICA aimed at institutionalizing the training program for Rural Life Improvement (RLI) at the (ATI). As expected, farmers, fisherfolk, women, youth and extension agents were provided with efficient and effective training services from ATI leading to the improvement of quality of life in the rural areas through efforts of human resource development. The ATI- Bohol was chosen as the model center where participatory trials and various activities of the project were undertaken for five years. These activities were participatory surveys and data collection of on-farm and off-farm productive activities; planning workshop for RLI; feedbacking of survey results and action plans to the community and the Local Government Units (LGUs), and signing of Memorandum of Agreement between the Project and participating LGUs. The above activities were done to facilitate the planning and development of most effective and necessary rural life improvement activities, to confirm the willingness of the people to support and participate and to formalize the partnership between the Project and the LGUs. Since the concept of rural life covers a vast range of activities, a consensus had been reached that the total aspects of rural life be grasped in three spheres, namely, Production & Livelihood (P/L), Rural Living Condition (RLC) and Community Environment (C/E). The RLI for Ubi (Yam) Growers was one of the pilot activities undertaken in two pilot barangays and the target beneficiaries were members of the Rural Improvement Club (RIC- a group of organized women) with the LGU of the Municipality of Corella as the implementing partner. During the planning workshop, the barangay residents articulated their desire to promote production and processing of ubi (sphere on P/L - as the entry point), lack of nutritious food was one of the identified problem (sphere on RLC- expansion point) and environmental degradation such as deforestation, and soil erosion was another problem articulated by the community people (sphere on C/E- expansion point). Major activities that were undertaken namely, Ubi cooking contest, cooking/processing seminar, training courses on entrepreneurial development, ubi production and storage technology, packaging and product design, human resource development and simplified bookkeeping motivated the beneficiaries as well as developed and enhanced their skills & capabilities while strengthening their associations. Their participation to the 5 ubi festivals and other related activities had brought some impacts on their economic and rural life improvement activities. The seven principles of TSEP-RLI include the participatory process, holistic approach, dialogical approach, bottom -up training needs assessment, demand-driven approach, cost sharing approach and collaborative implementation with other agencies including LGUs and the community.

Young women's economic daily lives in rural Ethiopia

In rural Ethiopia, livelihood diversification is essential for households to be able to sustain themselves. Declining agricultural profits and a land shortage have accelerated this diversification. While the past literature has ignored young women's economic contributions in its discussions about livelihood diversification, this research indicates that the current rapid educational expansion for girls has changed their economic role in their households. This has resulted in changes in the conventional life courses of women in rural Ethiopia as they have more choices in terms of education, marriage, and the types and location of their economic activities, due to the increasing importance of young women's economic contributions to their households and their improved educational opportunities. The aim of this paper is to elucidate how the economic environment and government educational policy have affected young women's lives in terms of education, marriage, economic activities, and intra-household power relationships, especially with their parents.

Marriage as women's old age insurance : evidence from migration and land inheritance practices in rural Tanzania

In a traditional system of exogamous and patrilocal marriage prevalent in much of Sub-Saharan Africa, when she marries, a rural woman typically leaves her kin to reside with her husband living outside her natal village. Since a village that allows a widow to inherit her late husband's land can provide her with old age security, single females living outside the village are more likely to marry into the village. Using a natural experimental setting, provided by the longitudinal household panel data drawn from rural Tanzania for the period from 1991 to 2004, during which several villages that initially banned a widow's land inheritance removed this discrimination, this study provides evidence in support of this view, whereby altering a customary land inheritance rules in a village in favor of widows increased the probability of males marrying in that village. This finding suggests that providing rural women with old age protection (e.g., insurance, livelihood protection) has remarkable spatial and temporal welfare effects by influencing their decision to marry.

Impact of seasonality-adjusted flexible microcredit on repayment and food consumption : experimental evidence from rural Bangladesh

The mismatch between credit repayments and income seasonality poses a challenge for microfinance institutions (MFIs) working in developing countries. For instance, in northern Bangladesh, income and consumption downfalls during the lean season after the transplanting of major paddy crops are a serious threat to a household's economy. Poor landless agricultural wage laborers suffer the most owing to this seasonality as they face difficulties in smoothing their consumption. However, in designing microcredit products, MFIs do not usually provide flexibility or seasonal adjustment during the lean season. This is mainly because MFIs are afraid that such flexibility might break the repayment discipline of borrowers, resulting in higher default rates. We thus conducted a randomized controlled trial in 2011-12 in northern Bangladesh to empirically test whether seasonality-adjusted flexible microcredit leads to an increase in repayment problems for MFIs as well as whether it can increase and stabilize consumption of borrower households. Our results suggest no statistically discernible difference among the treatment arms in case of default, overdue amount, or repayment frequency. On the other hand, we find no positive impact of repayment flexibility on immediate food consumption during the period of seasonality, except for in-kind full moratorium treatment group. After a year of initial intervention, however, we see positive changes in food intake during the lean season. Thus, our preliminary results are in favor of seasonality-adjusted flexible microcredit.

Marriage, dowry, and women's status in rural Punjab, Pakistan

Dowry is a common custom observed in South Asian countries. It has been a target of an opposition movement because it is assumed to be a root cause of women's mistreatment, for example, in the form of sex-selective abortion, girls' malnutrition, female infanticide, and domestic homicide called "dowry murder." Despite its alleged evil consequences and the legal ban or restrictions on it, the custom has been extended, and recently, the dowry amount seems to be increasing. However, there is little empirical evidence of dowry's effects. This study empirically investigates the effects of dowry on women's status in rural Pakistan. We conducted a unique survey in rural Punjab, Pakistan, to explore the marriage practices there and to answer the research question. Results show that a higher dowry amount enhances women’s status in the marital household. This implies that an outright ban on dowries does not necessarily improve women's welfare at this time.