Interpreting long-term fish landings records: environment and/or exploitation?

The California Department of Fish and Game data base of California commercial fish landings for the period 1928 to 1985 has been assembled in computer accessible form at the Pacific Fisheries Environmental Group in Monterey, California. Time series for fishes whose landings are known to vary during periods of ocean warming were compared to time series of sea surface temperature. Expected patterns of variation were confirmed in the seasonal cycle, but were less clear on the interannual scale. When interannual variation was considered, the most serious hindrance to interpretation of the landings series appeared to be the continued reduction of the fish stocks due to commercial exploitation; other factors are discussed. Landings data contain information potentially useful in climatological studies, but problems should be anticipated in their use.

Climatic changes reflected in laminated Santa Barbara Basin sediments

Dating of annually varved sediments of Santa Barbara Basin down to AD 1650 in absence of precise radiometric methods was achieved by (1) counting varves and determining mean annual sedimentation rates from x-radiographs, and (2) correlation with historical rainfall and tree-ring records.

Holocene fossil pollen records of Douglas fir in northwestern California: reconstruction of past climate

Douglas fir is one of the most important trees in northwestern California. Regional pollen records suggest that it has become prominent only in the late Holocene. The primary cause for this change is probably southward stabilization of the mean airstream.

The influence of seasonal precipitation and temperature variations on runoff in California and southwestern Oregon

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): There is considerable seasonal-to-interannual variability in the runoff of major watersheds in the Sierra Nevada, Coastal, and Cascade ranges of California and southwestern Oregon. This variability is reflected in both the amount and timing of runoff. This study examines that variability using long historical streamflow records and seasonal mean temperature and precipitation. ... Precipitation is the only significant predictor for both amount and timing of runoff in the low elevation basins. As elevation increases, the models rely more and more on temperature to explain amount and timing of runoff.

Initial global perspective of climate for the last thousand years: the ice core record

Climatic and environmental records from low, middle, and high latitude ice cores greatly increase our knowledge of the course of past events. This historical perspective is essential to predict climatic oscillations, dominated as they may be by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Forcing factors, internal and external, that have operated in the past will continue to influence the course of events.

Coastal climate reflected in carbon-13/carbon-12 ratio of organic carbon in varved sediment from Santa Barbara basin

A 1844-1987 time-series of carbon stable isotope ratios from dated sedimentary total organic carbon from the center of the Santa Barbara basin is compared with historical climate and oceanographic records. Carbon derived from carbon-13-depleted phytoplankton and carbon-13-enriched kelp appear responsible for a large part of the isotopic variance in sedimentary total organic carbon. El Niño/Southern Oscillation events are recorded by the isotopic response of marine organic carbon in sediments.

Variations in northeast Asian environments over the last 350,000 years reconstructed from pollen records from the northwest Pacific Ocean

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Recent analyses of terrestrial (pollen) and marine microfossils (foraminifera and radiolaria) in cores V28-204 and RC14-99 from the northwest Pacific Ocean extend the continuous, chronostratigraphically-controlled records of the regional vegetation of the Pacific coast of Japan and offshore marine environments through three full glacial cycles. The high-resolution pollen time series show systematic relationships between fluctuations in Japanese vegetation and global ice volume over the last 350 kyr. ... Comparison with solar insolation at 30°N and with an index of orbital parameters suggests that variation in northeast Asian summer monsoon intensity is related to orbital forcing.

Tree-ring records as indicators of air-sea interaction in the northeast Pacific sector

Climate conditions in land areas of the Pacific Northwest are strongly influenced by atmosphere/ocean variability, including fluctuations in the Aleutian Low, Pacific-North American (PNA) atmospheric circulation modes, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It thus seems likely that climatically sensitive tree-ring data from these coastal land areas would likewise reflect such climatic parameters. In this paper, tree-ring width and maximum lakewood density chronologies from northwestern Washington State and near Vancouver Island, British Columbia, are compared to surface air temperature and precipitation from nearby coastal and near-coastal land stations and to monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) data from the northeast Pacific sector. Results show much promise for eventual reconstruction of these parameters, potentially extending available instrumental records for the northeastern Pacific by several hundred years or more.

Historical evidence of abrupt coastal climatic change in Southern California, 1790-1880

Historical sources of the late-18th and 19th centuries were searched for information on coastal weather conditions in Southern California. Relatively calm winters until 1828 were followed by unusually stormy winters from about 1829 to 1839. Later periods were again predominantly calm, with notable exceptions related to the ENSO events of 1845 and 1878. Following decreases through the stormy 1830s, sizes of kelp forests appear to have rebounded in the 1840s. ENSO occurrences and eruption of the volcano Cosiguina in 1835 are likely causes for changing wind patterns. Our results link the unique AD 1840 Macoma leptonoidea pelecypod shell layer in laminated Santa Barbara Basin sediment ("Macoma event") to abruptly changing oceanographic and weather patterns.

Determining the role of linear and nonlinear interactions in records of climate change: possible solar influences in annual to century-scale records

Time series analysis methods have traditionally helped in identifying the role of various forcing mechanisms in influencing climate change. A challenge to understanding decadal and century-scale climate change has been that the linkages between climate changes and potential forcing mechanisms such as solar variability are often uncertain. However, most studies have focused on the role of climate forcing and climate response within a strictly linear framework. Nonlinear time series analysis procedures provide the opportunity to analyze the role of climate forcing and climate responses between different time scales of climate change. An example is provided by the possible nonlinear response of paleo-ENSO-scale climate changes as identified from coral records to forcing by the solar cycle at longer time scales.

Climate-driven hydrologic transients in Holocene lake records

Understanding the link between climate and regional hydrologic processes is of primary importance in estimating the possible impact of future climate change and in the validation of climate models that attempt to simulate such changes. Two distinct problems need to be addressed: quantitatively establishing the link between changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, and determining how these changes are expressed over differing temporal and spatial scales. To solve these problems, our interdisciplinary group is studying important aspects of hydrology, paleolimnology, geochemistry, and paleontology as they apply to climate-driven hydrologic changes.

A late-Holocene pollen record from Lower Pahrangat Lake, southern Nevada, USA: high resolution paleoclimatic records and analysis of environmental responses to climate change

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): High resolution paleobotanical records provide sufficient detail to correlate events regionally. Once correlated events can be examined in tandem to determine the underlying inputs that fashioned them. Several localities in the Great Basin have paleobotanical records of sufficient detail to generate regional reconstructions of vegetation changes for the last 2 ka and provide conclusions as to the climates that caused them.

Addendum I: Paleoclimate and the Solar-Insolation/Tidal-Resonance Climate Model

Recent papers provide detailed analyses of more than 40 high-resolution time series culled from the extensive paleoclimate literature that appear to define cyclical elements of the Solar-Insolation/Tidal-Resonance Climate Model. This model was earlier referred to as the Milankovitch/Pettersson Climatic Theory. This paper provides comparable analyses of an additional 20 or so, evidently supportive, climate and volcanic time series. The tree-ring, historical, pollen, cultural, time-frequency, and hydrologic records range in length from 400 to 90,000 years and spatially from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego.