An exploration of the maturity model concept as a vehicle for higher education institutions to assess their capability to address student engagement : a work in progress

Gaining a competitive edge in the area of the engagement, success and retention of commencing students is a significant issue in higher education, made more so currently because of the considerable and increasing pressure on teaching and learning from the new standards framework and performance funding. This paper introduces the concept of maturity models (MMs) and their application to assessing the capability of higher education institutions (HEIs) to address student engagement, success and retention (SESR). A concise description of the features of maturity models is presented with reference to an SESR-MM currently being developed. The SESR-MM is proposed as a viable instrument for assisting HEIs in the management and improvement of their SESR activities.

High-voltage modular power supply using parallel and series configurations of flyback converter for pulsed power applications

To cover wide range of pulsed power applications, this paper proposes a modularity concept to improve the performance and flexibility of the pulsed power supply. The proposed scheme utilizes the advantage of parallel and series configurations of flyback modules in obtaining high-voltage levels with fast rise time (dv/dt). Prototypes were implemented using 600-V insulated-gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) switches to generate up to 4-kV output pulses with 1-kHz repetition rate for experimentation. To assess the proposed modular approach for higher number of the modules, prototypes were implemented using 1700-V IGBTs switches, based on ten-series modules, and tested up to 20 kV. Conducted experimental results verified the effectiveness of the proposed method

Extending persistent monitoring by combining ocean models and Markov decision processes

Ocean processes are complex and have high variability in both time and space. Thus, ocean scientists must collect data over long time periods to obtain a synoptic view of ocean processes and resolve their spatiotemporal variability. One way to perform these persistent observations is to utilise an autonomous vehicle that can remain on deployment for long time periods. However, such vehicles are generally underactuated and slow moving. A challenge for persistent monitoring with these vehicles is dealing with currents while executing a prescribed path or mission. Here we present a path planning method for persistent monitoring that exploits ocean currents to increase navigational accuracy and reduce energy consumption.

The experiences of learner drivers, provisional drivers and supervisors with graduated driver licensing in two Australian jurisdictions

Newly licensed drivers on a provisional or intermediate licence have the highest crash risk when compared with any other group of drivers. In comparison, learner drivers have the lowest crash risk. Graduated driver licensing is one countermeasure that has been demonstrated to effectively reduce the crashes of novice drivers. This thesis examined the graduated driver licensing systems in two Australian states in order to better understand the behaviour of learner drivers, provisional drivers and the supervisors of learner drivers. By doing this, the thesis investigated the personal, social and environmental influences on novice driver behaviour as well as providing effective baseline data against which to measure subsequent changes to the licensing systems. In the first study, conducted prior to the changes to the graduated driver licensing system introduced in mid-2007, drivers who had recently obtained their provisional licence in Queensland and New South Wales were interviewed by telephone regarding their experiences while driving on their learner licence. Of the 687 eligible people approached to participate at driver licensing centres, 392 completed the study representing a response rate of 57.1 per cent. At the time the data was collected, New South Wales represented a more extensive graduated driver licensing system when compared with Queensland. The results suggested that requiring learners to complete a mandated number of hours of supervised practice impacts on the amount of hours that learners report completing. While most learners from New South Wales reported meeting the requirement to complete 50 hours of practice, it appears that many stopped practising soon after this goal was achieved. In contrast, learners from Queensland, who were not required to complete a specific number of hours at the time of the survey, tended to fall into three groups. The first group appeared to complete the minimum number of hours required to pass the test (less than 26 hours), the second group completed 26 to 50 hours of supervised practice while the third group completed significantly more practice than the first two groups (over 100 hours of supervised practice). Learner drivers in both states reported generally complying with the road laws and were unlikely to report that they had been caught breaking the road rules. They also indicated that they planned to obey the road laws once they obtained their provisional licence. However, they were less likely to intend to comply with recommended actions to reduce crash risk such as limiting their driving at night. This study also identified that there were relatively low levels of unaccompanied driving (approximately 15 per cent of the sample), very few driving offences committed (five per cent of the sample) and that learner drivers tended to use a mix of private and professional supervisors (although the majority of practice is undertaken with private supervisors). Consistent with the international literature, this study identified that very few learner drivers had experienced a crash (six per cent) while on their learner licence. The second study was also conducted prior to changes to the graduated driver licensing system and involved follow up interviews with the participants of the first study after they had approximately 21 months driving experience on their provisional licence. Of the 392 participants that completed the first study, 233 participants completed the second interview (representing a response rate of 59.4 per cent). As with the first study, at the time the data was collected, New South Wales had a more extensive graduated driver licensing system than Queensland. For instance, novice drivers from New South Wales were required to progress through two provisional licence phases (P1 and P2) while there was only one provisional licence phase in Queensland. Among the participants in this second study, almost all provisional drivers (97.9 per cent) owned or had access to a vehicle for regular driving. They reported that they were unlikely to break road rules, such as driving after a couple of drinks, but were also unlikely to comply with recommended actions, such as limiting their driving at night. When their provisional driving behaviour was compared to the stated intentions from the first study, the results suggested that their intentions were not a strong predictor of their subsequent behaviour. Their perception of risk associated with driving declined from when they first obtained their learner licence to when they had acquired provisional driving experience. Just over 25 per cent of participants in study two reported that they had been caught committing driving offences while on their provisional licence. Nearly one-third of participants had crashed while driving on a provisional licence, although few of these crashes resulted in injuries or hospitalisations. To complement the first two studies, the third study examined the experiences of supervisors of learner drivers, as well as their perceptions of their learner’s experiences. This study was undertaken after the introduction of the new graduated driver licensing systems in Queensland and New South Wales in mid- 2007, providing insights into the impacts of these changes from the perspective of supervisors. The third study involved an internet survey of 552 supervisors of learner drivers. Within the sample, approximately 50 per cent of participants supervised their own child. Other supervisors of the learner drivers included other parents or stepparents, professional driving instructors and siblings. For two-thirds of the sample, this was the first learner driver that they had supervised. Participants had provided an average of 54.82 hours (sd = 67.19) of supervision. Seventy-three per cent of participants indicated that their learners’ logbooks were accurate or very accurate in most cases, although parents were more likely than non-parents to report that their learners’ logbook was accurate (F (1,546) = 7.74, p = .006). There was no difference between parents and non-parents regarding whether they believed the log book system was effective (F (1,546) = .01, p = .913). The majority of the sample reported that their learner driver had had some professional driving lessons. Notwithstanding this, a significant proportion (72.5 per cent) believed that parents should be either very involved or involved in teaching their child to drive, with parents being more likely than non-parents to hold this belief. In the post mid-2007 graduated driver licensing system, Queensland learner drivers are able to record three hours of supervised practice in their log book for every hour that is completed with a professional driving instructor, up to a total of ten hours. Despite this, there was no difference identified between Queensland and New South Wales participants regarding the amount of time that they reported their learners spent with professional driving instructors (X2(1) = 2.56, p = .110). Supervisors from New South Wales were more likely to ensure that their learner driver complied with the road laws. Additionally, with the exception of drug driving laws, New South Wales supervisors believed it was more important to teach safety-related behaviours such as remaining within the speed limit, car control and hazard perception than those from Queensland. This may be indicative of more intensive road safety educational efforts in New South Wales or the longer time that graduated driver licensing has operated in that jurisdiction. However, other factors may have contributed to these findings and further research is required to explore the issue. In addition, supervisors reported that their learner driver was involved in very few crashes (3.4 per cent) and offences (2.7 per cent). This relatively low reported crash rate is similar to that identified in the first study. Most of the graduated driver licensing research to date has been applied in nature and lacked a strong theoretical foundation. These studies used Akers’ social learning theory to explore the self-reported behaviour of novice drivers and their supervisors. This theory was selected as it has previously been found to provide a relatively comprehensive framework for explaining a range of driver behaviours including novice driver behaviour. Sensation seeking was also used in the first two studies to complement the non-social rewards component of Akers’ social learning theory. This program of research identified that both Akers’ social learning theory and sensation seeking were useful in predicting the behaviour of learner and provisional drivers over and above socio-demographic factors. Within the first study, Akers’ social learning theory accounted for an additional 22 per cent of the variance in learner driver compliance with the law, over and above a range of socio-demographic factors such as age, gender and income. The two constructs within Akers’ theory which were significant predictors of learner driver compliance were the behavioural dimension of differential association relating to friends, and anticipated rewards. Sensation seeking predicted an additional six per cent of the variance in learner driver compliance with the law. When considering a learner driver’s intention to comply with the law while driving on a provisional licence, Akers’ social learning theory accounted for an additional 10 per cent of the variance above socio-demographic factors with anticipated rewards being a significant predictor. Sensation seeking predicted an additional four per cent of the variance. The results suggest that the more rewards individuals anticipate for complying with the law, the more likely they are to obey the road rules. Further research is needed to identify which specific rewards are most likely to encourage novice drivers’ compliance with the law. In the second study, Akers’ social learning theory predicted an additional 40 per cent of the variance in self-reported compliance with road rules over and above socio-demographic factors while sensation seeking accounted for an additional five per cent of the variance. A number of Aker’s social learning theory constructs significantly predicted provisional driver compliance with the law, including the behavioural dimension of differential association for friends, the normative dimension of differential association, personal attitudes and anticipated punishments. The consistent prediction of additional variance by sensation seeking over and above the variables within Akers’ social learning theory in both studies one and two suggests that sensation seeking is not fully captured within the non social rewards dimension of Akers’ social learning theory, at least for novice drivers. It appears that novice drivers are strongly influenced by the desire to engage in new and intense experiences. While socio-demographic factors and the perception of risk associated with driving had an important role in predicting the behaviour of the supervisors of learner drivers, Akers’ social learning theory provided further levels of prediction over and above these factors. The Akers’ social learning theory variables predicted an additional 14 per cent of the variance in the extent to which supervisors ensured that their learners complied with the law and an additional eight per cent of the variance in the supervisors’ provision of a range of practice experiences. The normative dimension of differential association, personal attitudes towards the use of professional driving instructors and anticipated rewards were significant predictors for supervisors ensuring that their learner complied with the road laws, while the normative dimension was important for range of practice. This suggests that supervisors who engage with other supervisors who ensure their learner complies with the road laws and provide a range of practice to their own learners are more likely to also engage in these behaviours. Within this program of research, there were several limitations including the method of recruitment of participants within the first study, the lower participation rate in the second study, an inability to calculate a response rate for study three and the use of self-report data for all three studies. Within the first study, participants were only recruited from larger driver licensing centres to ensure that there was a sufficient throughput of drivers to approach. This may have biased the results due to the possible differences in learners that obtain their licences in locations with smaller licensing centres. Only 59.4 per cent of the sample in the first study completed the second study. This may be a limitation if there was a common reason why those not participating were unable to complete the interview leading to a systematic impact on the results. The third study used a combination of a convenience and snowball sampling which meant that it was not possible to calculate a response rate. All three studies used self-report data which, in many cases, is considered a limitation. However, self-report data may be the only method that can be used to obtain some information. This program of research has a number of implications for countermeasures in both the learner licence phase and the provisional licence phase. During the learner phase, licensing authorities need to carefully consider the number of hours that they mandate learner drivers must complete before they obtain their provisional driving licence. If they mandate an insufficient number of hours, there may be inadvertent negative effects as a result of setting too low a limit. This research suggests that logbooks may be a useful tool for learners and their supervisors in recording and structuring their supervised practice. However, it would appear that the usage rates for logbooks will remain low if they remain voluntary. One strategy for achieving larger amounts of supervised practice is for learner drivers and their supervisors to make supervised practice part of their everyday activities. As well as assisting the learner driver to accumulate the required number of hours of supervised practice, it would ensure that they gain experience in the types of environments that they will probably encounter when driving unaccompanied in the future, such as to and from education or work commitments. There is also a need for policy processes to ensure that parents and professional driving instructors communicate effectively regarding the learner driver’s progress. This is required as most learners spend at least some time with a professional instructor despite receiving significant amounts of practice with a private supervisor. However, many supervisors did not discuss their learner’s progress with the driving instructor. During the provisional phase, there is a need to strengthen countermeasures to address the high crash risk of these drivers. Although many of these crashes are minor, most involve at least one other vehicle. Therefore, there are social and economic benefits to reducing these crashes. If the new, post-2007 graduated driver licensing systems do not significantly reduce crash risk, there may be a need to introduce further provisional licence restrictions such as separate night driving and peer passenger restrictions (as opposed to the hybrid version of these two restrictions operating in both Queensland and New South Wales). Provisional drivers appear to be more likely to obey some provisional licence laws, such as lower blood alcohol content limits, than others such as speed limits. Therefore, there may be a need to introduce countermeasures to encourage provisional drivers to comply with specific restrictions. When combined, these studies provided significant information regarding graduated driver licensing programs. This program of research has investigated graduated driver licensing utilising a cross-sectional and longitudinal design in order to develop our understanding of the experiences of novice drivers that progress through the system in order to help reduce crash risk once novice drivers commence driving by themselves.

Markers of chronic disease in offenders in a high secure correctional centre in Queensland

This study aimed to gauge the presence of markers of chronic disease, as a basis for food and nutrition policy in correctional facilities. One hundred and twenty offenders, recruited from a Queensland Correctional Centre, provided informed consent and completed both dietary interviews and physical measurements. Mean age of the sample was 35.5 ± 12 years (range = 19–77 yrs); mean age of the total population (n = 945) was 32.8 ± 10 years (range = 19–80 yrs). Seventy-nine participants also provided fasting blood samples. The mean body mass index (BMI) was 27 ± 3.5 kg/m2; 72% having a BMI > 25 kg/m2. Thirty-three percent were classified overweight or obese using waist circumference (mean = 92 ± 10 cm). Mean blood pressure measurement was systolic = 130 ± 14 mmHg and diastolic = 73 ± 10 mmHg. Twenty-four percent were classified as hypertensive of whom three were on antihypertensive medication. Eighteen percent had elevated triglycerides, and 40% unfavourable total cholesterol to HDL ratios. Homeostatic Model Assessment (HOMA scores) were calculated from glucose and insulin. Four participants were insulin resistant, two of whom had known diabetes. Metabolic syndrome, based on waist circumference (adjusted for ethnicity), blood lipids, blood pressure and plasma glucose indicated that 25% (n = 20) were classified with metabolic syndrome. Eighty-four percent (n = 120) reported some physical activity each day, with 51 percent participating ≥two times daily. Fifty-four percent reported smoking with an additional 20% having smoked in the past. Findings suggest that waist circumference rather than weight and BMI only should be used in this group to determine weight status. The data suggest that markers of chronic disease are present and that food and nutrition policy must reflect this. Further analysis is being completed to determine relevant policy initiatives.

Examining Exposure of Motorcycles at Signalized Intersections

Crash statistics in Singapore from 2001 to 2005 have shown that motorcycles are involved in about 54% of intersection crashes. The overall involvement of motorcycles in crashes as the not-at-fault party is about 43% but at intersections, the corresponding percentage is increased to 57%. Quasi-induced exposure estimates show that the motorcycle exposure rate at signalized intersections is 41.7% even though motorcycles account for only 19% of the vehicle population. This study seeks to examine in greater details, the problem of motorcycle exposure at signalized intersections. In particular, the exposure arising from potential crashes with red light running vehicles from the conflicting stream at four signalized intersections is investigated. The results show that motorcycles are more exposed because they tend to accumulate near the stop-line during the red phase to facilitate an earlier discharge during the initial period of the green which is the more vulnerable period. At sites where there are more weaving opportunities because the lanes are wider or where there are exclusive right-turn lanes, the accumulation is higher and hence an increased exposure is observed. The analysis also shows that the presence of heavy vehicles tends to decrease motorcycle exposure as their weaving opportunities become restricted as well as there is a greater reluctance for them to weave past or queue alongside the heavy vehicles and their effects intensify for narrower lane width.

Severity of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at intersections: A Bayesian hierarchical analysis

Most crash severity studies ignored severity correlations between driver-vehicle units involved in the same crashes. Models without accounting for these within-crash correlations will result in biased estimates in the factor effects. This study developed a Bayesian hierarchical binomial logistic model to identify the significant factors affecting the severity level of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at signalized intersections. Crash data in Singapore were employed to calibrate the model. Model fitness assessment and comparison using Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC) and Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) ensured the suitability of introducing the crash-level random effects. Crashes occurring in peak time, in good street lighting condition, involving pedestrian injuries are associated with a lower severity, while those in night time, at T/Y type intersections, on right-most lane, and installed with red light camera have larger odds of being severe. Moreover, heavy vehicles have a better resistance on severe crash, while crashes involving two-wheel vehicles, young or aged drivers, and the involvement of offending party are more likely to result in severe injuries.

Applying Bayesian hierarchical models to examine motorcycle crashes at signalized intersections

Motorcycles are overrepresented in road traffic crashes and particularly vulnerable at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to identify causal factors affecting the motorcycle crashes at both four-legged and T signalized intersections. Treating the data in time-series cross-section panels, this study explores different Hierarchical Poisson models and found that the model allowing autoregressive lag 1 dependent specification in the error term is the most suitable. Results show that the number of lanes at the four-legged signalized intersections significantly increases motorcycle crashes largely because of the higher exposure resulting from higher motorcycle accumulation at the stop line. Furthermore, the presence of a wide median and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of four-legged intersections exacerbate this potential hazard. For T signalized intersections, the presence of exclusive right-turn lane at both major and minor roadways and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of T intersections increases motorcycle crashes. Motorcycle crashes increase on high-speed roadways because they are more vulnerable and less likely to react in time during conflicts. The presence of red light cameras reduces motorcycle crashes significantly for both four-legged and T intersections. With the red-light camera, motorcycles are less exposed to conflicts because it is observed that they are more disciplined in queuing at the stop line and less likely to jump start at the start of green.

Right-angle crash vulnerability of motorcycles at signalized intersections : mixed logit analysis

Motorcycles are particularly vulnerable in right-angle crashes at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to explore how variations in roadway characteristics, environmental factors, traffic factors, maneuver types, human factors as well as driver demographics influence the right-angle crash vulnerability of motorcycles at intersections. The problem is modeled using a mixed logit model with a binary choice category formulation to differentiate how an at-fault vehicle collides with a not-at-fault motorcycle in comparison to other collision types. The mixed logit formulation allows randomness in the parameters and hence takes into account the underlying heterogeneities potentially inherent in driver behavior, and other unobserved variables. A likelihood ratio test reveals that the mixed logit model is indeed better than the standard logit model. Night time riding shows a positive association with the vulnerability of motorcyclists. Moreover, motorcyclists are particularly vulnerable on single lane roads, on the curb and median lanes of multi-lane roads, and on one-way and two-way road type relative to divided-highway. Drivers who deliberately run red light as well as those who are careless towards motorcyclists especially when making turns at intersections increase the vulnerability of motorcyclists. Drivers appear more restrained when there is a passenger onboard and this has decreased the crash potential with motorcyclists. The presence of red light cameras also significantly decreases right-angle crash vulnerabilities of motorcyclists. The findings of this study would be helpful in developing more targeted countermeasures for traffic enforcement, driver/rider training and/or education, safety awareness programs to reduce the vulnerability of motorcyclists.

An investigation on multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes using log-linear models

Motorcyclists are the most crash-prone road-user group in many Asian countries including Singapore; however, factors influencing motorcycle crashes are still not well understood. This study examines the effects of various roadway characteristics, traffic control measures and environmental factors on motorcycle crashes at different location types including expressways and intersections. Using techniques of categorical data analysis, this study has developed a set of log-linear models to investigate multi-vehicle motorcycle crashes in Singapore. Motorcycle crash risks in different circumstances have been calculated after controlling for the exposure estimated by the induced exposure technique. Results show that night-time influence increases crash risks of motorcycles particularly during merging and diverging manoeuvres on expressways, and turning manoeuvres at intersections. Riders appear to exercise more care while riding on wet road surfaces particularly during night. Many hazardous interactions at intersections tend to be related to the failure of drivers to notice a motorcycle as well as to judge correctly the speed/distance of an oncoming motorcycle. Road side conflicts due to stopping/waiting vehicles and interactions with opposing traffic on undivided roads have been found to be as detrimental factors on motorcycle safety along arterial, main and local roads away from intersections. Based on the findings of this study, several targeted countermeasures in the form of legislations, rider training, and safety awareness programmes have been recommended.

Developing targeted countermeasures to improve motorcycle safety

The fatality and injury rate of motorcyclists per registered vehicle are higher than those of other motor vehicles by 13 and 7 times respectively. The crash involvement rate of motorcyclists as a victim party is 58% at intersections and as an offending party is 67% at expressways. Previous research efforts showed that the motorcycle safety programs are not very effective in improving motorcycle safety. This is perhaps due to inefficient design of safety program as specific causal factors may not be well explored. The objective of this study is to propose more sophisticated countermeasures and awareness programs for improving motorcycle safety after analyzing specific causal factors for motorcycle crashes at intersections and expressways. Methodologically this study applies the binary logistic model to explore the at-fault or not-at-fault crash involvement of motorcyclists at those locations. A number of explanatory variables representing roadway characteristics, environmental factors, motorcycle descriptions, and rider demographics have been evaluated. Results shows that the night time crash occurrence, presence of red light camera, lane position, rider age, licence class, and multivehicle collision significantly affect the fault of motorcyclists involved in crashes at intersections. On the other hand, the night time crash occurrence, lane position, speed limit, rider age, licence class, engine capacity, riding with pillion passenger, foreign registered motorcycles, and multivehicle collision has been found to be significant at expressways. Legislate to wear reflective clothes and using reflective markings on the motorcycles and helmets are suggested as an effective countermeasure for reducing their vulnerability. The red light cameras at intersections reduce the vulnerability of motorcycles and hence motorcycle flow and motorcycle crashes should be considered during installation of red light cameras. At signalized intersections, motorcyclists may be taught to follow correct movement and queuing rather than weaving through the traffic as it leads them to become victims of other motorists. The riding simulators in the training centers can be useful to demonstrate the proper movement and queuing at junctions. Riding with pillion passenger and excess speed at expressways are found to significantly influence the at at-fault crash involvement of the motorcyclists. Hence the motorcyclists should be advised to concentrate more on riding while riding with pillion passenger and encouraged to avoid excess speed at expressways. Very young and very older group of riders are found to be at-fault than middle aged groups. Hence this group of riders should be targeted for safety improvement. This can be done by arranging safety talks and programs in motorcycling clubs in colleges and universities as well as community riding clubs with high proportion of elderly riders. It is recommended that the driving centers may use the findings of this study to include in licensure program to make motorcyclists more aware of the different factors which expose the motorcyclists to crash risks so that more defensive riding may be needed.

Factors affecting motorcycle crashes at signalized intersections

Singapore crash statistics show that motorcycles are involved in about 54% of crashes at intersections. Moreover, about 46% of fatal and 67% of injury motorcycle crashes occur at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to identify causal factors affecting the motorcycle crashes at both four-legged and three-legged signalized intersections. Treating the data in time-series cross-section panels, this study explores different Hierarchical Poisson models and found that the model allowing autoregressive lag 1 dependent specification in the error term is the most suitable. Analysis of the results shows the number of lanes at the intersections significantly increases motorcycle crashes largely because of the higher exposure resulting from higher motorcycle accumulation at the stop line. Furthermore, the presence of a wide median at four-legged intersections and an exclusive right-turn lane and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at three-legged intersections exacerbate this potential hazard. Moreover, motorcycle crashes increase on high-speed roadways because of the vulnerability of the motorcyclists. The presence of red light cameras reduces motorcycle crashes significantly on the intersection roadways for both four-legged and three-legged intersections. With the red-light camera, motorcycles are less exposed to conflicts because it is observed that they are more disciplined in queuing at the stop line and less likely to jump start at the start of green.

Inhibition of guinea-pig renal [Na + K]-ATPase by normotensive human plasma : effects of a high sodium diet

The effect of plasma taken from normotensive humans, while on a low and high sodium diet, on [Na + K]-ATPase and 3H-ouabain binding was measured in tubules from guinea-pig kidneys. Plasma from the high sodium, compared to the low sodium, diet period: (a) inhibited [Na + K]-ATPase activity; (b) decreased 3H-ouabain affinity for binding sites; (c) increased the number of available 3H-ouabain binding sites; (d) decreased [Na + K]-ATPase turnover (activity/3H-ouabain binding sites). The inhibition of [Na + K]-ATPase suggests an increase in a (possible) natriuretic factor. The decreased affinity of 3H-ouabain binding suggests an endogenous ouabainoid, which may be the natriuretic factor.

Simple rules to contain an invasive species with a complex life cycle and high dispersal capacity

Designing practical rules for controlling invasive species is a challenging task for managers, particularly when species are long-lived, have complex life cycles and high dispersal capacities. Previous findings derived from plant matrix population analyses suggest that effective control of long-lived invaders may be achieved by focusing on killing adult plants. However, the cost-effectiveness of managing different life stages has not been evaluated. We illustrate the benefits of integrating matrix population models with decision theory to undertake this evaluation, using empirical data from the largest infestation of mesquite (Leguminosae: Prosopis spp) within Australia. We include in our model the mesquite life cycle, different dispersal rates and control actions that target individuals at different life stages with varying costs, depending on the intensity of control effort. We then use stochastic dynamic programming to derive cost-effective control strategies that minimize the cost of controlling the core infestation locally below a density threshold and the future cost of control arising from infestation of adjacent areas via seed dispersal. Through sensitivity analysis, we show that four robust management rules guide the allocation of resources between mesquite life stages for this infestation: (i) When there is no seed dispersal, no action is required until density of adults exceeds the control threshold and then only control of adults is needed; (ii) when there is seed dispersal, control strategy is dependent on knowledge of the density of adults and large juveniles (LJ) and broad categories of dispersal rates only; (iii) if density of adults is higher than density of LJ, controlling adults is most cost-effective; (iv) alternatively, if density of LJ is equal or higher than density of adults, management efforts should be spread between adults, large and to a lesser extent small juveniles, but never saplings. Synthesis and applications.In this study, we show that simple rules can be found for managing invasive plants with complex life cycles and high dispersal rates when population models are combined with decision theory. In the case of our mesquite population, focussing effort on controlling adults is not always the most cost-effective way to meet our management objective.

Tracking the magmatic evolution of island arc volcanism : insights from a high-precision Pb isotope record of Montserrat, Lesser Antilles

The volcanic succession on Montserrat provides an opportunity to examine the magmatic evolution of island arc volcanism over a ∼2.5 Ma period, extending from the andesites of the Silver Hills center, to the currently active Soufrière Hills volcano (February 2010). Here we present high-precision double-spike Pb isotope data, combined with trace element and Sr-Nd isotope data throughout this period of Montserrat's volcanic evolution. We demonstrate that each volcanic center; South Soufrière Hills, Soufrière Hills, Centre Hills and Silver Hills, can be clearly discriminated using trace element and isotopic parameters. Variations in these parameters suggest there have been systematic and episodic changes in the subduction input. The SSH center, in particular, has a greater slab fluid signature, as indicated by low Ce/Pb, but less sediment addition than the other volcanic centers, which have higher Th/Ce. Pb isotope data from Montserrat fall along two trends, the Silver Hills, Centre Hills and Soufrière Hills lie on a general trend of the Lesser Antilles volcanics, whereas SSH volcanics define a separate trend. The Soufrière Hills and SSH volcanic centers were erupted at approximately the same time, but retain distinctive isotopic signatures, suggesting that the SSH magmas have a different source to the other volcanic centers. We hypothesize that this rapid magmatic source change is controlled by the regional transtensional regime, which allowed the SSH magma to be extracted from a shallower source. The Pb isotopes indicate an interplay between subduction derived components and a MORB-like mantle wedge influenced by a Galapagos plume-like source.