Reciprocity as a trigger of social cooperation in contemporary immigration societies?

While the system stabilizing function of reciprocity is widely acknowledged, much less attention has been paid to the argument that reciprocity might initiate social cooperation in the first place. This paper tests Gouldner’s early assumption that reciprocity may act as a ‘starting mechanism’ of social cooperation in consolidating societies. The empirical test scenario builds on unequal civic engagement between immigrants and nationals, as this engagement gap can be read as a lack of social cooperation in consolidating immigration societies. Empirical analyses using survey data on reciprocal norms and based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling lend support for Gouldner’s thesis, underlining thereby the relevance of reciprocity in today’s increasingly diverse societies: individual norms of altruistic reciprocity elevate immigrants’ propensity to volunteer, reducing thereby the engagement gap between immigrants and natives in the area of informal volunteering. In other words, compliance with altruistic reciprocity may trigger cooperation in social strata, where it is less likely to occur. The positive moderation of the informal engagement gap through altruistic reciprocity turns out to be most pronounced for immigrants who are least likely to engage in informal volunteering, meaning low, but also high educated immigrants.

Hierarchical self-assembly of the DNA-grafted supramolecular polymers

Conjugation of functional entities with a specific set of optical, mechanical or biological properties to DNA strands allows engineering of sophisticated DNA-containing architectures. Among various hybrid systems, DNA-grafted polymers occupy an important place in modern materials science. In this contribution we present the non-covalent synthesis and properties of DNA-grafted linear supramolecular polymers (SPs), which are assembled in a controllable manner from short chimeric DNA-pyrene oligomers. The synthetic oligomers consist of two parts: a 10 nucleotides long DNA chain and a covalently attached segment of variable number of phosphodiester-linked pyrenes. The temperature-dependent formation of DNA-grafted SPs is described by a nucleation-elongation mechanism. The high tendency of pyrenes to aggregate in water, leads to the rapid formation of SPs. The core of the assemblies consists of stacked pyrenes. They form a 1D platform, to which the DNA chains are attached. Combined spectroscopic and microscopic studies reveal that the major driving forces of the polymerization are π-stacking of pyrenes and hydrophobic interactions, and DNA pairing contributes to a lesser extent. AFM and TEM experiments demonstrate that the 1D SPs appear as elongated ribbons with a length of several hundred nanometers. They exhibit an apparent helical structure with a pitch-to-pitch distance of 50±15 nm. Since DNA pairing is a highly selective process, the ongoing studies are aimed to utilize DNA-grafted SPs for the programmable arrangement of functional entities. For example, the addition of non-modified complementary DNA strands to the DNA-grafted SPs leads to the cooperative formation of higher-order assemblies. Also, our experiments suggest that the fluorescent pyrene core of 1D ribbons serves as an efficient donor platform for energy transfer applications.

Hierarchical self-assembly of the DNA-grafted supramolecular polymers

Conjugation of functional entities with a specific set of optical, mechanical or biological properties to DNA strands allows engineering of sophisticated DNA-containing architectures. Among various hybrid systems, DNA-grafted polymers occupy an important place in modern materials science. In this contribution we present the non-covalent synthesis and properties of DNA-grafted linear supramolecular polymers (SPs), which are assembled in a controllable manner from short chimeric DNA-pyrene oligomers. The synthetic oligomers consist of two parts: a 10 nucleotides long DNA chain and a covalently attached segment of variable number of phosphodiester-linked pyrenes. The temperature-dependent formation of DNA-grafted SPs is described by a nucleation-elongation mechanism. The high tendency of pyrenes to aggregate in water, leads to the rapid formation of SPs. The core of the assemblies consists of stacked pyrenes. They form a 1D platform, to which the DNA chains are attached. Combined spectroscopic and microscopic studies reveal that the major driving forces of the polymerization are π-stacking of pyrenes and hydrophobic interactions, and DNA pairing contributes to a lesser extent. AFM and TEM experiments demonstrate that the 1D SPs appear as elongated ribbons with a length of several hundred nanometers. They exhibit an apparent helical structure with a pitch-to-pitch distance of 50±15 nm. Since DNA pairing is a highly selective process, the ongoing studies are aimed to utilize DNA-grafted SPs for the programmable arrangement of functional entities. For example, the addition of non-modified complementary DNA strands to the DNA-grafted SPs leads to the cooperative formation of higher-order assemblies. Also, our experiments suggest that the fluorescent pyrene core of 1D ribbons serves as an efficient donor platform for energy transfer applications.

Negative Emotional Stimuli Enhance Vestibular Processing

Recent studies have shown that vestibular stimulation can influence affective processes. In the present study, we examined whether emotional information can also modulate vestibular perception. Participants performed a vestibular discrimination task on a motion platform while viewing emotional pictures. Six different picture categories were taken from the International Affective Picture System: mutilation, threat, snakes, neutral objects, sports, and erotic pictures. Using a Bayesian hierarchical approach, we were able to show that vestibular discrimination improved when participants viewed emotionally negative pictures (mutilation, threat, snake) when compared to neutral/positive objects. We conclude that some of the mechanisms involved in the processing of vestibular information are also sensitive to emotional content. Emotional information signals importance and mobilizes the body for action. In case of danger, a successful motor response requires precise vestibular processing. Therefore, negative emotional information improves processing of vestibular information.

From Ribbons to Networks: Hierarchical Organization of DNA-Grafted Supramolecular Polymers

DNA-grafted supramolecular polymers (SPs) allow the programmed organization of DNA in a highly regular, one-dimensional array. Oligonucleotides are arranged along the edges of pyrene-based helical polymers. Addition of complementary oligonucleotides triggers the assembly of individual nanoribbons resulting in the development of extended supramolecular networks. Network formation is enabled by cooperative coaxial stacking interactions of terminal GC base pairs. The process is accompanied by structural changes in the pyrene polymer core that can be followed spectroscopically. Network formation is reversible, and disassembly into individual ribbons is realized either via thermal denaturation or by addition of a DNA separator strand.

European summer temperatures since Roman times

The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June–August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951–2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986–2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850–2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.

Source Memory for Mental Imagery: Influences of the Stimuli’s Ease of Imagery.

The present study investigated how ease of imagery influences source monitoring accuracy. Two experiments were conducted in order to examine how ease of imagery influences the probability of source confusions of perceived and imagined completions of natural symmetric shapes. The stimuli consisted of binary pictures of natural objects, namely symmetric pictures of birds, butterflies, insects, and leaves. The ease of imagery (indicating the similarity of the sources) and the discriminability (indicating the similarity of the items) of each stimulus were estimated in a pretest and included as predictors of the memory performance for these stimuli. It was found that confusion of the sources becomes more likely when the imagery process was relatively easy. However, if the different processes of source monitoring-item memory, source memory and guessing biases-are disentangled, both experiments support the assumption that the effect of decreased source memory for easily imagined stimuli is due to decision processes and misinformation at retrieval rather than encoding processes and memory retention. The data were modeled with a Bayesian hierarchical implementation of the one high threshold source monitoring model.

Disentangling mental imagery and perceptual expectation

Mental imagery and perception are thought to rely on similar neural circuits, and many recent behavioral studies have attempted to demonstrate interactions between actual physical stimulation and sensory imagery in the corresponding sensory modality. However, there has been a lack of theoretical understanding of the nature of these interactions, and both interferential and facilitatory effects have been found. Facilitatory effects appear strikingly similar to those that arise due to experimental manipulations of expectation. Using a self-motion discrimination task, we try to disentangle the effects of mental imagery from those of expectation by using a hierarchical drift diffusion model to investigate both choice data and response times. Manipulations of expectation are reasonably well understood in terms of their selective influence on parameters of the drift diffusion model, and in this study, we make the first attempt to similarly characterize the effects of mental imagery. We investigate mental imagery within the computational framework of control theory and state estimation. • Mental imagery and perception are thought to rely on similar neural circuits; however, on more theoretical grounds, imagery seems to be closely related to the output of forward models (sensory predictions). • We reanalyzed data from a study of imagined self-motion. • Bayesian modeling of response times may allow us to disentangle the effects of mental imagery on behavior from other cognitive (top-down) effects, such as expectation.

Bayesian models for the analysis of genetic structure when populations are correlated

Motivation: Population allele frequencies are correlated when populations have a shared history or when they exchange genes. Unfortunately, most models for allele frequency and inference about population structure ignore this correlation. Recent analytical results show that among populations, correlations can be very high, which could affect estimates of population genetic structure. In this study, we propose a mixture beta model to characterize the allele frequency distribution among populations. This formulation incorporates the correlation among populations as well as extending the model to data with different clusters of populations. Results: Using simulated data, we show that in general, the mixture model provides a good approximation of the among-population allele frequency distribution and a good estimate of correlation among populations. Results from fitting the mixture model to a dataset of genotypes at 377 autosomal microsatellite loci from human populations indicate high correlation among populations, which may not be appropriate to neglect. Traditional measures of population structure tend to over-estimate the amount of genetic differentiation when correlation is neglected. Inference is performed in a Bayesian framework.

Polytomies and bayesian phylogenetic inference

Bayesian phylogenetic analyses are now very popular in systematics and molecular evolution because they allow the use of much more realistic models than currently possible with maximum likelihood methods. There are, however, a growing number of examples in which large Bayesian posterior clade probabilities are associated with very short edge lengths and low values for non-Bayesian measures of support such as nonparametric bootstrapping. For the four-taxon case when the true tree is the star phylogeny, Bayesian analyses become increasingly unpredictable in their preference for one of the three possible resolved tree topologies as data set size increases. This leads to the prediction that hard (or near-hard) polytomies in nature will cause unpredictable behavior in Bayesian analyses, with arbitrary resolutions of the polytomy receiving very high posterior probabilities in some cases. We present a simple solution to this problem involving a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that allows exploration of all of tree space, including unresolved tree topologies with one or more polytomies. The reversible-jump MCMC approach allows prior distributions to place some weight on less-resolved tree topologies, which eliminates misleadingly high posteriors associated with arbitrary resolutions of hard polytomies. Fortunately, assigning some prior probability to polytomous tree topologies does not appear to come with a significant cost in terms of the ability to assess the level of support for edges that do exist in the true tree. Methods are discussed for applying arbitrary prior distributions to tree topologies of varying resolution, and an empirical example showing evidence of polytomies is analyzed and discussed.

Polytomies and bayesian phylogenetic inference

Bayesian phylogenetic analyses are now very popular in systematics and molecular evolution because they allow the use of much more realistic models than currently possible with maximum likelihood methods. There are, however, a growing number of examples in which large Bayesian posterior clade probabilities are associated with very short edge lengths and low values for non-Bayesian measures of support such as nonparametric bootstrapping. For the four-taxon case when the true tree is the star phylogeny, Bayesian analyses become increasingly unpredictable in their preference for one of the three possible resolved tree topologies as data set size increases. This leads to the prediction that hard (or near-hard) polytomies in nature will cause unpredictable behavior in Bayesian analyses, with arbitrary resolutions of the polytomy receiving very high posterior probabilities in some cases. We present a simple solution to this problem involving a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that allows exploration of all of tree space, including unresolved tree topologies with one or more polytomies. The reversible-jump MCMC approach allows prior distributions to place some weight on less-resolved tree topologies, which eliminates misleadingly high posteriors associated with arbitrary resolutions of hard polytomies. Fortunately, assigning some prior probability to polytomous tree topologies does not appear to come with a significant cost in terms of the ability to assess the level of support for edges that do exist in the true tree. Methods are discussed for applying arbitrary prior distributions to tree topologies of varying resolution, and an empirical example showing evidence of polytomies is analyzed and discussed.

Using Leading Indicators to Forecast US Home Sales in a Bayesian VAR Framework

This paper uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to examine the usefulness of leading indicators in predicting US home sales. The benchmark Bayesian model includes home sales, the price of homes, the mortgage rate, real personal disposable income, and the unemployment rate. We evaluate the forecasting performance of six alternative leading indicators by adding each, in turn, to the benchmark model. Out-of-sample forecast performance over three periods shows that the model that includes building permits authorized consistently produces the most accurate forecasts. Thus, the intention to build in the future provides good information with which to predict home sales. Another finding suggests that leading indicators with longer leads outperform the short-leading indicators.

Bayesian doubly optimal group sequential designs for randomized clinical trials

When conducting a randomized comparative clinical trial, ethical, scientific or economic considerations often motivate the use of interim decision rules after successive groups of patients have been treated. These decisions may pertain to the comparative efficacy or safety of the treatments under study, cost considerations, the desire to accelerate the drug evaluation process, or the likelihood of therapeutic benefit for future patients. At the time of each interim decision, an important question is whether patient enrollment should continue or be terminated; either due to a high probability that one treatment is superior to the other, or a low probability that the experimental treatment will ultimately prove to be superior. The use of frequentist group sequential decision rules has become routine in the conduct of phase III clinical trials. In this dissertation, we will present a new Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to the problem of designing a randomized group sequential clinical trial, focusing on two-arm trials with time-to-failure outcomes. Forward simulation is used to obtain optimal decision boundaries for each of a set of possible models. At each interim analysis, we use Bayesian model selection to adaptively choose the model having the largest posterior probability of being correct, and we then make the interim decision based on the boundaries that are optimal under the chosen model. We provide a simulation study to compare this method, which we call Bayesian Doubly Optimal Group Sequential (BDOGS), to corresponding frequentist designs using either O'Brien-Fleming (OF) or Pocock boundaries, as obtained from EaSt 2000. Our simulation results show that, over a wide variety of different cases, BDOGS either performs at least as well as both OF and Pocock, or on average provides a much smaller trial. ^