Crossbred cow adoption and milk market participation in a multivariate count data framework

Cross-bred cow adoption is an important and potent policy variable precipitating subsistence household entry into emerging milk markets. This paper focuses on the problem of designing policies that encourage and sustain milkmarket expansion among a sample of subsistence households in the Ethiopian highlands. In this context it is desirable to measure households’ ‘proximity’ to market in terms of the level of deficiency of essential inputs. This problem is compounded by four factors. One is the existence of cross-bred cow numbers (count data) as an important, endogenous decision by the household; second is the lack of a multivariate generalization of the Poisson regression model; third is the censored nature of the milk sales data (sales from non-participating households are, essentially, censored at zero); and fourth is an important simultaneity that exists between the decision to adopt a cross-bred cow, the decision about how much milk to produce, the decision about how much milk to consume and the decision to market that milk which is produced but not consumed internally by the household. Routine application of Gibbs sampling and data augmentation overcome these problems in a relatively straightforward manner. We model the count data from two sites close to Addis Ababa in a latent, categorical-variable setting with known bin boundaries. The single-equation model is then extended to a multivariate system that accommodates the covariance between crossbred-cow adoption, milk-output, and milk-sales equations. The latent-variable procedure proves tractable in extension to the multivariate setting and provides important information for policy formation in emerging-market settings

Tobit estiamtion with unknown point of censoring with an application to milk market participation in the Ethiopian highlands

Data augmentation is a powerful technique for estimating models with latent or missing data, but applications in agricultural economics have thus far been few. This paper showcases the technique in an application to data on milk market participation in the Ethiopian highlands. There, a key impediment to economic development is an apparently low rate of market participation. Consequently, economic interest centers on the “locations” of nonparticipants in relation to the market and their “reservation values” across covariates. These quantities are of policy interest because they provide measures of the additional inputs necessary in order for nonparticipants to enter the market. One quantity of primary interest is the minimum amount of surplus milk (the “minimum efficient scale of operations”) that the household must acquire before market participation becomes feasible. We estimate this quantity through routine application of data augmentation and Gibbs sampling applied to a random-censored Tobit regression. Incorporating random censoring affects markedly the marketable-surplus requirements of the household, but only slightly the covariates requirements estimates and, generally, leads to more plausible policy estimates than the estimates obtained from the zero-censored formulation

Promotion carryover as a missing data problem

An important feature of agribusiness promotion programs is their lagged impact on consumption. Efficient investment in advertising requires reliable estimates of these lagged responses and it is desirable from both applied and theoretical standpoints to have a flexible method for estimating them. This note derives an alternative Bayesian methodology for estimating lagged responses when investments occur intermittently within a time series. The method exploits a latent-variable extension of the natural-conjugate, normal-linear model, Gibbs sampling and data augmentation. It is applied to a monthly time series on Turkish pasta consumption (1993:5-1998:3) and three, nonconsecutive promotion campaigns (1996:3, 1997:3, 1997:10). The results suggest that responses were greatest to the second campaign, which allocated its entire budget to television media; that its impact peaked in the sixth month following expenditure; and that the rate of return (measured in metric tons additional consumption per thousand dollars expended) was around a factor of 20.

Bayesian ranking and slection of fishing boat efficiencies

The steadily accumulating literature on technical efficiency in fisheries attests to the importance of efficiency as an indicator of fleet condition and as an object of management concern. In this paper, we extend previous work by presenting a Bayesian hierarchical approach that yields both efficiency estimates and, as a byproduct of the estimation algorithm, probabilistic rankings of the relative technical efficiencies of fishing boats. The estimation algorithm is based on recent advances in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods— Gibbs sampling, in particular—which have not been widely used in fisheries economics. We apply the method to a sample of 10,865 boat trips in the US Pacific hake (or whiting) fishery during 1987–2003. We uncover systematic differences between efficiency rankings based on sample mean efficiency estimates and those that exploit the full posterior distributions of boat efficiencies to estimate the probability that a given boat has the highest true mean efficiency.

Spectral gap for Glauber type dynamics for a special class of potentials

We consider an equilibrium birth and death type process for a particle system in infinite volume, the latter is described by the space of all locally finite point configurations on Rd. These Glauber type dynamics are Markov processes constructed for pre-given reversible measures. A representation for the ``carré du champ'' and ``second carré du champ'' for the associate infinitesimal generators L are calculated in infinite volume and for a large class of functions in a generalized sense. The corresponding coercivity identity is derived and explicit sufficient conditions for the appearance and bounds for the size of the spectral gap of L are given. These techniques are applied to Glauber dynamics associated to Gibbs measure and conditions are derived extending all previous known results and, in particular, potentials with negative parts can now be treated. The high temperature regime is extended essentially and potentials with non-trivial negative part can be included. Furthermore, a special class of potentials is defined for which the size of the spectral gap is as least as large as for the free system and, surprisingly, the spectral gap is independent of the activity. This type of potentials should not show any phase transition for a given temperature at any activity.

A high resolution late Holocene palaeo environmental record from the central Adriatic Sea

A multi-proxy study of a Holocene sediment core (RF 93-30) from the western flank of the central Adriatic, in 77 m of water, reveals a sequence of changes in terrestrial vegetation, terrigenous sediment input and benthic fauna, as well as evidence for variations in sea surface temperature spanning most of the last 7000 yr. The chronology of sedimentation is based on several lines of evidence, including AMS 14C dates of foraminifera extracted from the core, palaeomagnetic secular variation, pollen indicators and dated tephra. The temporal resolution increases towards the surface and, for some of the properties measured, is sub-decadal for the last few centuries. The main changes recorded in vegetation, sedimentation and benthic foraminiferal assemblages appear to be directly related to human activity in the sediment source area, which includes the Po valley and the eastern flanks of the central and northern Appenines. The most striking episodes of deforestation and expanding human impact begin around 3600 BP (Late Bronze Age) and 700 BP (Medieval) and each leads to an acceleration in mass sedimentation and an increase in the proportion of terrigenous material, reflecting the response of surface processes to widespread forest clearance and cultivation. Although human impact appears to be the proximal cause of these changes, climatic effects may also have been important. During these periods, signs of stress are detectable in the benthic foram morphotype assemblages. Between these two periods of increased terrigeneous sedimentation there is smaller peak in sedimentation rate around 2400BP which is not associated with evidence for deforestation, shifts in the balance between terrigenous and authigenic sedimentation, or changes in benthic foraminifera. The mineral magnetic record provides a sensitive indicator of changing sediment sources: during forested periods of reduced terrigenous input it is dominated by authigenic bacterial magnetite, whereas during periods of increased erosion, anti-ferromagetic minerals (haematite and/or goethite) become more important, as well as both paramagnetic minerals and super-paramagnetic magnetite. Analysis of the alkenone, U37k′, record provides an indication of possible changes in sea surface temperature during the period, but it is premature to place too much reliance on these inferred changes until the indirect effects of past changes in the depth of the halocline and in circulation have been more fully evaluated. The combination of methods used and the results obtained illustrate the potential value of such high resolution near-shore marine sedimentary sequences for recording wide-scale human impact, documenting the effects of this on marine sedimentation and fauna and, potentially, disentangling evidence for human activities from that for past changes in climate.

Reversible state transition in nanoconfined aqueous solutions

Using molecular dynamics simulations, we find a reversible transition between the dispersion and aggregation states of solute molecules in aqueous solutions confined in nanoscale geometry, which is not observed in macroscopic systems. The nanoscale confinement also leads to a significant increase of the critical aggregation concentration (CAC). A theoretical model based on Gibbs free energy calculation is developed to describe the simulation results. It indicates that the reversible state transition is attributed to the low free energy barrier (of order kBT) in between two energy minima corresponding to the dispersion and aggregation states, and the enhancement of the CAC results from the fact that at lower concentrations the number of solute molecules is not large enough to allow the formation of a stable cluster in the confined systems.

Noisy Monte Carlo: convergence of Markov chains with approximate transition kernels

Monte Carlo algorithms often aim to draw from a distribution π by simulating a Markov chain with transition kernel P such that π is invariant under P. However, there are many situations for which it is impractical or impossible to draw from the transition kernel P. For instance, this is the case with massive datasets, where is it prohibitively expensive to calculate the likelihood and is also the case for intractable likelihood models arising from, for example, Gibbs random fields, such as those found in spatial statistics and network analysis. A natural approach in these cases is to replace P by an approximation Pˆ. Using theory from the stability of Markov chains we explore a variety of situations where it is possible to quantify how ’close’ the chain given by the transition kernel Pˆ is to the chain given by P . We apply these results to several examples from spatial statistics and network analysis.

Dynamical properties of S-gap shifts and other shift spaces

We study the dynamical properties of certain shift spaces. To help study these properties we introduce two new classes of shifts, namely boundedly supermultiplicative (BSM) shifts and balanced shifts. It turns out that any almost specified shift is both BSM and balanced, and any balanced shift is BSM. However, as we will demonstrate, there are examples of shifts which are BSM but not balanced. We also study the measure theoretic properties of balanced shifts. We show that a shift space admits a Gibbs state if and only if it is balanced. Restricting ourselves to S-gap shifts, we relate certain dynamical properties of an S-gap shift to combinatorial properties from expansions in non-integer bases. This identification allows us to use the machinery from expansions in non-integer bases to give straightforward constructions of S -gap shifts with certain desirable properties. We show that for any q∈(0,1) there is an S-gap shift which has the specification property and entropy q . We also use this identification to address the question, for a given q∈(0,1), how many S-gap shifts exist with entropy q? For certain exceptional values of q there is a unique S-gap shift with this entropy.

The Phantom Carriage (1921)

The reputation of The Phantom Carriage (Körkarlen) as one of the major films of Swedish silent cinema is in some respects securely established. Yet the film has attracted surprisingly little detailed discussion. It may be that its most striking stylistic features have deflected or discouraged closer scrutiny. Tom Gunning, for instance, in making the case for Sjöström’s Masterman, argues that ‘Körkarlen wears its technique on its sleeve, overtly displays its unquestionable mastery of superimposition and complex narrative structure. Mästerman tucks its mastery of editing and composition up its sleeve, so to speak’. This article makes an argument for a different evaluation of The Phantom Carriage, bringing a critical and interpretative understanding of the film’s style into conversation with the historical accounts of film form which predominate in the scholarship around silent cinema. It suggests that the film achieves ‘mastery of editing and composition’ with a flexibility and fluidity in the construction of dramatic space that is in itself remarkable for its period, but that Sjöström’s achievements extend well beyond his handling of film space. Specifically, it discusses a segment which is in several respects at the heart of the film: the first meeting between the two central characters, David Holm (Victor Sjöström) and Sister Edit (Astrid Holm); it spans the film’s exact mid-point; and at almost twelve and a half minutes it is the longest uninterrupted passage to take place in a single setting. The chapter argues that the dramatic and structural centrality of the hostel segment is paralleled by its remarkably rich articulation of the relationships between action, character and space. We show how Sjöström’s creation of a three-dimensional filmic space - with no hint of frontality - becomes the basis for a reciprocal relationship between spatial naturalism and performance style, and for a mise-en-scene that can take on discrete interpretive force. The argument also places the hostel sequences within the film as a whole in order to show how relationships articulated through the detailed decisions in this section take on their full resonance within patterns and motifs that develop across the film.