The market of academic journals : empirical evidence from data on French libraries

This paper analyzes the demand and cost structure of the French market of academic journals, taking into account its intermediary role between researchers, who are both producers and consumers of knowledge. This two sidedness feature will echoes similar problems already observed in electronic markets – payment card systems, video game console etc - such as the chicken and egg problem, where readers won’t buy a journal if they do not expect its articles to be academically relevant and researchers, that live under the mantra “Publish or Perish”, will not submit to a journal with either limited public reach or weak reputation. After the merging of several databases, we estimate the aggregated nested logit demand system combined simultaneously with a cost function. We identify the structural parameters of this market and find that price elasticities of demand are quite large and margins relatively low, indicating that this industry experiences competitive constraints.

Essays on economic growth

A fundamental question in development economics is why some economies are rich and others poor. To illustrate the income per capita gap across economies consider that the average gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of the richest 10 percent of economies in the year 2010 was a factor of 40-fold that of the poorest 10 percent of economies. In other words, the average person in a rich economy produces in just over 9 days what the average person in a poor economy produces in an entire year. What are the factors that can explain this difference in standard of living across the world today? With this in view, this dissertation is a conjunction of three essays on the economic growth field which we seek a possible responses to this question. The first essay investigates the existence of resource misallocation in the Brazilian manufacturing sector and measures possible distortions in it. Using a similar method of measurement to the one developed by Hsieh and Klenow (2009) and firm-level data for 1996-2011 we find evidence of misallocation in the manufacturing sector during the observed period. Moreover, our results show that misallocation has been growing since 2005, and it presents a non-smooth dynamic. Significantly, we find that the Brazilian manufacturing sector operates at about 50% of its efficient product. With this, if capital and labor were optimally reallocated between firms and sectors we would obtain an aggregate output growth of approximately 110-180% depending on the mode in which the capital share is measured. We also find that the economic crisis did not have a substantial effect on the total productivity factor or on the sector's misallocation. However, small firms in particular seem to be strongly affected in a global crisis. Furthermore, the effects described would be attenuated if we consider linkages and complementarity effects among sectors. Despite Brazil's well-known high tax burden, there is not evidence that this is the main source of resource misallocation. Moreover, there is a distinct pattern of structural change between the manufacturing sectors in industrialized countries and those in developing countries. Therefore, the second essay demonstrate that this pattern differs because there are some factors that distort the relative prices and also affect the output productivity. For this, we present a multi-sector model of economic growth, where distortions affect the relative prices and the allocation of inputs. This phenomenon imply that change of the production structure or perpetuation of the harmful structures to the growth rate of aggregate output. We also demonstrate that in an environment with majority decision, this distortion can be enhanced and depends on the initial distribution of firms. Furthermore, distortions in relative prices would lead to increases in the degree of misallocation of resources, and that imply that there are distinct patterns of structural changes between economies. Finally, the calibrated results of the framework developed here converge with the structural change observed in the firm-level data of the Brazilian manufacturing sector. Thereafter, using a cross-industry cross-country approach, the third essay investigates the existence of an optimal level of competition to enhance economic growth. With that in mind, we try to show that this optimal level is different from industrialized and under development economies due to the technology frontier distance, the terms of trade, and each economy's idiosyncratic characteristics. Therefore, the difference in competition industry-country level is a channel to explain the output for worker gap between countries. The theoretical and empirical results imply the existence of an inverted-U relationship between competition and growth: starting for an initially low level of competition, higher competition stimulates innovation and output growth; starting from a high initial level of competition, higher competition has a negative effect on innovation and output growth. Given on average industries in industrialized economies present higher competition level. With that if we control for the terms of trade and the industry-country fixed effect, if the industries of the developing economy operated under the same competition levels as of the industrialized ones, there is a potential increase of output of 0.2-1.0% per year. This effect on the output growth rate depends on the competition measurement used.

Essays on household taxation and competition between heterogeneous firms

Essa tese é constituída por três artigos: "Tax Filing Choices for the Household", "Optimal Tax for the Household: Collective and Unitary Approaches" e "Vertical Differentiation and Heterogeneous Firms".

The Brazilian and the french private equity sectors from 2006 to present: a comparative analysis

Private equity, ou o ato de fundos ou investidores de investir em empresas não cotadas em bolsa pública, assumiu uma importância crescente no mundo financeiro nos últimos anos. De fato, enquanto o surgimento de um setor de private equity (PE) tem sido um grande fenômeno em mercados emergentes desde meados dos anos 2000, a crise financeira mundial enfraqueceu private equity no mundo desenvolvido. Assim, esta pesquisa vai se concentrar em dois países com dinâmicas supostamente muito diferentes em relação a este sector: França e Brasil. O objetivo será o de discernir padrões gerais de comportamento em ambos os sectores de PE durante todo o período compreendido 2006-2013, e tentar determinar em que medida eles são comparáveis. Utilizando a literatura como fonte conceitual para o quadro comparativo a ser desenvolvido, será analisado se as condições do mercado e do ambiente institucional evoluíram durante o período estudado na França e no Brasil, se comparar, e se eles impactaram o nível de atividade de private equity - oferta e demanda de fundos - em ambos os países. Para identificar esses padrões, a pesquisa contará com uma análise de dados exploratória qualitativa, com base em um quadro dos determinantes do setor de PE identificados e retirados da literatura acadêmica. Esta pesquisa trazera sua contribuição para o trabalho acadêmico existente sobre private equity, graças à sua natureza comparativa e para a sua conclusão sobre a relevância dos determinantes acima mencionados sobre a atividade de private equity na França e no Brasil.

French wine and the Brazilian consumer

Em um mercado internacional de vinhos cada dia mais competitivo, exportadores franceses estão procurando novos mercados para expandir suas atividades. Nesse cenário o Brasil aparece como um mercado potencial enorme e, por isso, é necessário aos empreendedores o perfeito entendimento das dinâmicas de mercado, a fim de moldar estratégias de marketing eficientes. A primeira etapa é entender o comportamento do consumidor final, a fim de oferecer o produto certo de maneira certa. Essa dissertação tem por objeto a análise dos hábitos de consumo, bem como a percepção do consumidor sobre os vinhos franceses no mercado do vinho brasileiro. A análise será efetuada em função do comportamento do consumidor; portanto, uma atenção especial será dada à demografia, aos hábitos de consumo e as tendências do mercado para os produtos vitivinícolas. Mais precisamente, a investigação tentará identificar diferentes grupos de consumidores com padrões semelhantes, baseados em dados demográficos, consumo atual ou potencial de vinho, e sua percepção particular sobre o vinho francês. A idéia por trás desse processo é a construção de um quadro que pode ajudar a desenvolver estratégias de marketing para profissionais do mercado de vinhos franceses no Brasil, fornecendo a potenciais exportadores uma melhor compreensão sobre como direcionar o seu posicionamento e atingir metas de forma eficaz. A realização desta dissertação foi um desafio importante porque o comportamento do consumidor de vinho no Brasil nao foi estudado inteiramente. É muito difícil hoje para exportadores franceses que desejam compreender melhor o consumidor brasileiro de vinho encontrar qualquer estudo ou análise. A fim de fazer isso, a literatura sobre o mercado do vinho brasileiro foi utilizada (especificidades dos produtos, produção, dados de consumo, etc.). A literatura também inclui os fatores de decisão que influenciam os consumidores nas suas decisões de compra, o que é uma questão muito complexa quando se trata de vinho. Finalmente, a literatura sobre as estratégias de marketing foi revista, a fim de avaliar o tanto o impacto potencial como a relevância para o mercado brasileiro. A segunda etapa do estudo foi a apresentação de questionários a consumidores brasileiros e a análise, com o intuito de determinar as preferências dos consumidores e compreender a percepção do vinho francês. O objetivo foi identificar potenciais grupos alvos para os produtores franceses de vinho.

Essays on corporate restructuring

Esta tese tem por objetivo examinar as características do processo de decisão em que credores optam pela recuperação judicial ou liquidação da empresa em dificuldade financeira. O trabalho está dividido em quatro capítulos. No segundo capítulo, apresenta-se, de forma sistematizada, referencial teórico e evidências empíricas para apontar resultados importantes sobre estudos desenvolvidos nas áreas de recuperação de empresas e falência. O capítulo também apresenta três estudos de caso com o propósito de mostrar a complexidade de cada caso no que diz respeito à concentração de recursos, conflito de interesse entre as classes de credores e a decisão final sobre a aprovação ou rejeição do plano de recuperação judicial. No terceiro capítulo, analisam-se os determinantes do atraso pertinente à votação do plano de recuperação judicial. O trabalho propõe um estudo empírico dos atrasos entre 2005 e 2014. Os resultados sugerem que: (i) maior concentração da dívida entre as classes de credores possui relação com atrasos menores; (ii) maior quantidade de bancos para votar o plano de recuperação judicial possui relação com maiores atrasos; (iii) o atraso médio na votação diminui quando apenas uma classe de credores participa da votação do plano; (iv) credores trabalhistas e com garantia real atrasam a votação quando o valor dos ativos para garantir a dívida em caso de liquidação é maior; (v) o atraso médio na votação é maior em casos de pior desempenho do setor de atuação do devedor, sendo solicitado pelas classes quirografária e com garantia real; e (vi) a proposta de venda de ativos é o principal tópico discutido nas reuniões de votação do plano nos casos em que o atraso na votação é maior. Por fim, no quarto capítulo, apresenta-se evidência sobre a votação dos credores e a probabilidade de aprovação do plano de recuperação judicial. Os resultados sugerem que: (i) credores trabalhistas estão propensos a aprovar o plano de recuperação mesmo quando o plano é rejeitado pelas demais classes; (ii) planos com propostas de pagamento mais heterogêneas para as três classes de credores possuem menor chance de serem aceitos; (iii) a chance de aprovação do plano diminui nos casos em que mais credores quirografários participam da recuperação; e (iv) planos com proposta de venda de ativos possuem maior chance de serem aprovados. Finalmente, maior concentração da dívida na classe com garantia real diminui a chance de aprovação do plano, e o contrário ocorre na classe quirografária.

Essays in applied microeconomics

Esta tese é composta de três artigos. No primeiro artigo, ``Risk Taking in Tournaments", é considerado um torneio dinâmico no qual jogadores escolhem como alocar seu tempo em atividades que envolvem risco. No segundo artigo, ``Unitização de Jazidas de Petróleo: Uma Aplicação do Modelo de Green e Porter" é analisado a factibilidade de se haver um acordo de cooperação em um ambiente de common-pool com incerteza nos custos das empresas. No terceiro artigo, ``Oilfield Unitization Under Dual Fiscal Regime: The Regulator Role over the Bargaining", por sua vez, é estudado a unitização quando existem dois regimes fiscais distintos, como os jogadores se beneficiam disso e o papel do regulador no regime de partilha.

Essays on consumer brand engagement

Apesar do crescente interesse no conceito de engajamento da marca ainda existe discordância quanto aos seus conceitos fundamentais. Esta tese de doutorado explora a natureza da construção engajamento da marca do consumidor (EMC). No primeiro artigo, EMC é avaliada no âmbito da Teoria da Expectância para explicar e esclarecer como a antecipação de possíveis resultados de se envolver com uma marca, sendo tais resultados classificados como “primeiro nível” (resultante do esforço pessoal alocado para interagir com uma marca) e “segundo nível” (ou nível final, representando a consequência dos resultados de primeiro nível) e uma nova definição de EMC é formulada. Um arcabouço teórico abrangente é proposto para engajamento da marca, usando o Teoria Organizacional de Marketing para Expansão de Fronteiras (TOMEF) como referência para os pontos de contato entre o consumidor e a marca. A partir dos fundamentos teóricos das dimensões cognitivas, emocionais e comportamentais do EMC, quinze proposições teóricas são desenvolvidas para incorporar uma perspectiva multilateral às doutrinas teóricas do construto. No segundo artigo, quatro estudos são usados para desenvolver uma escala de engajamento da marca do consumidor. O Estudo 1 (n = 11) utiliza revisão da literatura e entrevistas em profundidade com os consumidores para gerar os itens da escala. No Estudo 2, oito especialistas avaliam 144 itens quanto a validade de face e validade de conteúdo. No Estudo 3 dados coletados com alunos de graduação (n = 172) é submetida à análise fatorial exploratória (AFE) e confirmatória (AFC) para redução adicional de itens. Trezentos e oitenta e nove respostas de um painel de consumidores são usados no Estudo 4 para avaliar o ajuste do modelo, usando a análise fatorial confirmatória (AFC) e Modelagem por Equações Estruturais (MEE). A escala proposta possui excelentes níveis de validade e confiabilidade. Finalmente, no terceiro papel, uma escala de engajamento do consumidor de Vivek et al. (2014) é replicada (n = 598) junto à consumidores em uma feira automotiva, para estender o debate sobre formas de medição do constructo usando a perspectiva da Teoria de Resposta ao Item (TRI). Embora o modelo desenvolvido com base na teoria clássica de teste (TCT) usando AFC, um modelo de resposta gradual (MRG) identifica cinco itens que têm baixos níveis de poder discriminante e com baixos níveis de informação. A abordagem usando TRI indica um possível caminho para melhorias metodológicas futuras para as escalas desenvolvidas na área de marketing em geral, e para a escala engajamento do consumidor, em particular.

Theoretical and empirical essays on microeconometrics

This Master Thesis consists of one theoretical article and one empirical article on the field of Microeconometrics. The first chapter\footnote{We also thank useful suggestions by Marinho Bertanha, Gabriel Cepaluni, Brigham Frandsen, Dalia Ghanem, Ricardo Masini, Marcela Mello, Áureo de Paula, Cristine Pinto, Edson Severnini and seminar participants at São Paulo School of Economics, the California Econometrics Conference 2015 and the 37\textsuperscript{th} Brazilian Meeting of Econometrics.}, called \emph{Synthetic Control Estimator: A Generalized Inference Procedure and Confidence Sets}, contributes to the literature about inference techniques of the Synthetic Control Method. This methodology was proposed to answer questions involving counterfactuals when only one treated unit and a few control units are observed. Although this method was applied in many empirical works, the formal theory behind its inference procedure is still an open question. In order to fulfill this lacuna, we make clear the sufficient hypotheses that guarantee the adequacy of Fisher's Exact Hypothesis Testing Procedure for panel data, allowing us to test any \emph{sharp null hypothesis} and, consequently, to propose a new way to estimate Confidence Sets for the Synthetic Control Estimator by inverting a test statistic, the first confidence set when we have access only to finite sample, aggregate level data whose cross-sectional dimension may be larger than its time dimension. Moreover, we analyze the size and the power of the proposed test with a Monte Carlo experiment and find that test statistics that use the synthetic control method outperforms test statistics commonly used in the evaluation literature. We also extend our framework for the cases when we observe more than one outcome of interest (simultaneous hypothesis testing) or more than one treated unit (pooled intervention effect) and when heteroskedasticity is present. The second chapter, called \emph{Free Economic Area of Manaus: An Impact Evaluation using the Synthetic Control Method}, is an empirical article. We apply the synthetic control method for Brazilian city-level data during the 20\textsuperscript{th} Century in order to evaluate the economic impact of the Free Economic Area of Manaus (FEAM). We find that this enterprise zone had positive significant effects on Real GDP per capita and Services Total Production per capita, but it also had negative significant effects on Agriculture Total Production per capita. Our results suggest that this subsidy policy achieve its goal of promoting regional economic growth, even though it may have provoked mis-allocation of resources among economic sectors.

Essays in applied econometrics

Using a unique dataset on Brazilian nominal and real yield curves combined with daily survey forecasts of macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth, inflation, and exchange rate movements, we identify the effect of surprises to the Brazilian interbank target rate on expected future nominal and real short rates, term premia, and inflation expectations. We find that positive surprises to target rates lead to higher expected nominal and real interest rates and reduced nominal and inflation term premia. We also find a strongly positive relation between both real and nominal term premia and measures of dispersion in survey forecasts. Uncertainty about future exchange rates is a particularly important driver of variations in Brazilian term premia.

Essays on health care reform, wealth inequality, and demography

This thesis contains three chapters. The first chapter uses a general equilibrium framework to simulate and compare the long run effects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) and of health care costs reduction policies on macroeconomic variables, government budget, and welfare of individuals. We found that all policies were able to reduce uninsured population, with the PPACA being more effective than cost reductions. The PPACA increased public deficit mainly due to the Medicaid expansion, forcing tax hikes. On the other hand, cost reductions alleviated the fiscal burden of public insurance, reducing public deficit and taxes. Regarding welfare effects, the PPACA as a whole and cost reductions are welfare improving. High welfare gains would be achieved if the U.S. medical costs followed the same trend of OECD countries. Besides, feasible cost reductions are more welfare improving than most of the PPACA components, proving to be a good alternative. The second chapter documents that life cycle general equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents have a very hard time reproducing the American wealth distribution. A common assumption made in this literature is that all young adults enter the economy with no initial assets. In this chapter, we relax this assumption – not supported by the data – and evaluate the ability of an otherwise standard life cycle model to account for the U.S. wealth inequality. The new feature of the model is that agents enter the economy with assets drawn from an initial distribution of assets. We found that heterogeneity with respect to initial wealth is key for this class of models to replicate the data. According to our results, American inequality can be explained almost entirely by the fact that some individuals are lucky enough to be born into wealth, while others are born with few or no assets. The third chapter documents that a common assumption adopted in life cycle general equilibrium models is that the population is stable at steady state, that is, its relative age distribution becomes constant over time. An open question is whether the demographic assumptions commonly adopted in these models in fact imply that the population becomes stable. In this chapter we prove the existence of a stable population in a demographic environment where both the age-specific mortality rates and the population growth rate are constant over time, the setup commonly adopted in life cycle general equilibrium models. Hence, the stability of the population do not need to be taken as assumption in these models.

Essays on cartels and market distortions

This dissertation is a conjunction of three essays on the Industrial Organization field, this empirical work is applied to the Brazilian retail gasoline market. The first essay investigates the existence of spillover effects from cartel activity. The second essay relates the well-known economic puzzle of asymmetric cost pass through to prices with the existence of horizontal coordination - cartels - in the relevant market. Finally, the third essay investigates the effectiveness of antitrust interventions inside the offenders and the consequences of its disclosure in related markets.

Variability of the conserved V3 loop tip motif in HIV-1 subtype B isolates collected from Brazilian and French patients

The diversity of the V3 loop tip motif sequences of HIV-1 subtype B was analyzed in patients from Botucatu (Brazil) and Montpellier (France). Overall, 37 tetrameric tip motifs were identified, 28 and 17 of them being recognized in Brazilian and French patients, respectively. The GPGR (P) motif was predominant in French but not in Brazilian patients (53.5% vs 31.0%), whereas the GWGR (W) motif was frequent in Brazilian patients (23.0%) and absent in French patients. Three tip motif groups were considered: P, W, and non-P non-W groups. The distribution of HIV-1 isolates into the three groups was significantly different between isolates from Botucatu and from Montpellier (P < 0.001). A higher proportion of CXCR4-using HIV-1 (X4 variants) was observed in the non-P non-W group as compared with the P group (37.5% vs 19.1%), and no X4 variant was identified in the W group (P < 0.001). The higher proportion of X4 variants in the non-P non-W group was essentially observed among the patients from Montpellier, who have been infected with HIV-1 for a longer period of time than those from Botucatu. Among patients from Montpellier, CD4+ cell counts were lower in patients belonging to the non-P non-W group than in those belonging to the P group (24 cells/µL vs 197 cells/µL; P = 0.005). Taken together, the results suggest that variability of the V3 loop tip motif may be related to HIV-1 coreceptor usage and to disease progression. However, as analyzed by a bioinformatic method, the substitution of the V3 loop tip motif of the subtype B consensus sequence with the different tip motifs identified in the present study was not sufficient to induce a change in HIV-1 coreceptor usage.

Laboratory essays on solid residues from an area of sand mining activities at Analandia, São Paulo, Brazil, and implications to the water resources quality

This investigation reports the results of tests performed in a laboratory with solid waste samples from an area belonging to Sibelco Mineracao Ltd., which is located around Analandia municipality, nearly in the center of São Paulo State, Brazil. Dissolution and leaching essays were realized under different experimental conditions in four samples collected from the mining front and decantation pool, with the aim of evaluating the possibility of release of several constituents to the liquid phase.