Calculating the balance between water resources and water demands:an approach using risk analysis

Predicting future need for water resources has traditionally been, at best, a crude mixture of art and science. This has prevented the evaluation of water need from being carried out in either a consistent or comprehensive manner. This inconsistent and somewhat arbitrary approach to water resources planning led to well publicised premature developments in the 1970's and 1980's but privatisation of the Water Industry, including creation of the Office of Water Services and the National Rivers Authority in 1989, turned the tide of resource planning to the point where funding of schemes and their justification by the Regulators could no longer be assumed. Furthermore, considerable areas of uncertainty were beginning to enter the debate and complicate the assessment It was also no longer appropriate to consider that contingencies would continue to lie solely on the demand side of the equation. An inability to calculate the balance between supply and demand may mean an inability to meet standards of service or, arguably worse, an excessive provision of water resources and excessive costs to customers. United Kingdom Water Industry Research limited (UKWlR) Headroom project in 1998 provided a simple methodology for the calculation of planning margins. This methodology, although well received, was not, however, accepted by the Regulators as a tool sufficient to promote resource development. This thesis begins by considering the history of water resource planning in the UK, moving on to discuss events following privatisation of the water industry post·1985. The mid section of the research forms the bulk of original work and provides a scoping exercise which reveals a catalogue of uncertainties prevalent within the supply-demand balance. Each of these uncertainties is considered in terms of materiality, scope, and whether it can be quantified within a risk analysis package. Many of the areas of uncertainty identified would merit further research. A workable, yet robust, methodology for evaluating the balance between water resources and water demands by using a spreadsheet based risk analysis package is presented. The technique involves statistical sampling and simulation such that samples are taken from input distributions on both the supply and demand side of the equation and the imbalance between supply and demand is calculated in the form of an output distribution. The percentiles of the output distribution represent different standards of service to the customer. The model allows dependencies between distributions to be considered, for improved uncertainties to be assessed and for the impact of uncertain solutions to any imbalance to be calculated directly. The method is considered a Significant leap forward in the field of water resource planning.

An evaluation of certain aspects of an occupational health service

This thesis has been concerned with obtaining evidence to explore the proposition that the provision of occupational health services as arranged at the present time represents a misallocation of resources. The research has been undertaken within the occupational health service of a large Midlands food factory. As the research progressed it became evident that questions were being raised about the nature and scope of occupational health as well as the contribution, in combating danger at work, that occupational health services can make to the health and safety team. These questions have been scrutinized in depth, as they are clearly important, and a resolution of the problem of the definition of occupational health has been proposed. I have taken the approach of attempting to identify specific objectives or benefits of occupational health activities so that it is possible to assess how far these objectives are being achieved. I have looked at three aspects of occupational health; audiometry, physiotherapy and pre-employment medical examinations as these activities embody crucial concepts which are common to all activities in an occupational health programme. A three category classification of occupational health activities is proposed such that the three activities provide examples within each category. These are called personnel therapy, personnel input screening and personnel throughput screening. I conclude that I have not shown audiometry to be cost-effective. My observations of the physiotherapy service lead me to support the suggestion that there is a decline in sickness absence rates due to physiotherapy in industry. With pre-employment medical examinations I have shown that the service is product safety oriented and that benefits are extremely difficult to identify. In regard to the three services studied, in the one factory investigated, and because of the immeasurability of certain activities, I find support for the proposition that the mix of occupational health services as provided at the present time represents a misallocation of resources.

An evaluation of aerial photography as a source of environmental information

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An evaluation of TCP over wired-to-wireless networks

To exploit the popularity of TCP as still the dominant sender and protocol of choice for transporting data reliably across the heterogeneous Internet, this thesis explores end-to-end performance issues and behaviours of TCP senders when transferring data to wireless end-users. The theme throughout is on end-users located specifically within 802.11 WLANs at the edges of the Internet, a largely untapped area of work. To exploit the interests of researchers wanting to study the performance of TCP accurately over heterogeneous conditions, this thesis proposes a flexible wired-to-wireless experimental testbed that better reflects conditions in the real-world. To exploit the transparent functionalities between TCP in the wired domain and the IEEE 802.11 WLAN protocols, this thesis proposes a more accurate methodology for gauging the transmission and error characteristics of real-world 802.11 WLANs. It also aims to correlate any findings with the functionality of fixed TCP senders. To exploit the popularity of Linux as a popular operating system for many of the Internet’s data servers, this thesis studies and evaluates various sender-side TCP congestion control implementations within the recent Linux v2.6. A selection of the implementations are put under systematic testing using real-world wired-to-wireless conditions in order to screen and present a viable candidate/s for further development and usage in the modern-day heterogeneous Internet. Overall, this thesis comprises a set of systematic evaluations of TCP senders over 802.11 WLANs, incorporating measurements in the form of simulations, emulations, and through the use of a real-world-like experimental testbed. The goal of the work is to ensure that all aspects concerned are comprehensively investigated in order to establish rules that can help to decide under which circumstances the deployment of TCP is optimal i.e. a set of paradigms for advancing the state-of-the-art in data transport across the Internet.

An evaluation of the impact upon productivity of ending resale price maintenance on books

Report prepared for the OFT by the Centre for Competition Policy at University of East Anglia. An examination of the ending of RPM aims to improve understanding of how competition interventions affect productivity, provide a methodological framework that could inform future evaluations and provide inputs to the ongoing debate about the effects of RPM.

Pulse oximetry screening for congenital heart defects in newborn infants:an evaluation of acceptability to mothers

Background: Introducing neonatal screening procedures may not be readily accepted by parents and may increase anxiety. The acceptability of pulse oximetry screening to parents has not been previously reported. Objective: To assess maternal acceptability of pulse oximetry screening for congenital heart defects and to identify factors predictive of participation in screening. Design and setting: A questionnaire was completed by a cross-sectional sample of mothers whose babies were recruited into the PulseOx Study which investigated the test accuracy of pulse oximetry screening. Participants: A total of 119 mothers of babies with false-positive (FP) results, 15 with true-positive and 679 with true-negative results following screening. Main outcome measures: Questionnaires included measures of satisfaction with screening, anxiety, depression and perceptions of test results. Results: Participants were predominantly satisfied with screening. The anxiety of mothers given FP results was not significantly higher than that of mothers given true-negative results (median score 32.7 vs 30.0, p=0.09). White British/Irish mothers were more likely to participate in screening, with a decline rate of 5%; other ethnic groups were more likely to decline with the largest increase in declining being for Black African mothers (21%, OR 4.6, 95% CI 3.8 to 5.5). White British mothers were also less anxious (p<0.001) and more satisfied (p<0.001) than those of other ethnicities Conclusions: Pulse oximetry screening was acceptable to mothers and FP results were not found to increase anxiety. Factors leading to differences in participation and satisfaction across ethnic groups need to be identified so that staff can support parents appropriately.

Stainless clad steels:an evaluation

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An evaluation of human performance in a risk environment

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An evaluation of rural housing policies

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Finding qualitative research: an evaluation of search strategies

Background Qualitative research makes an important contribution to our understanding of health and healthcare. However, qualitative evidence can be difficult to search for and identify, and the effectiveness of different types of search strategies is unknown. Methods Three search strategies for qualitative research in the example area of support for breast-feeding were evaluated using six electronic bibliographic databases. The strategies were based on using thesaurus terms, free-text terms and broad-based terms. These strategies were combined with recognised search terms for support for breast-feeding previously used in a Cochrane review. For each strategy, we evaluated the recall (potentially relevant records found) and precision (actually relevant records found). Results A total yield of 7420 potentially relevant records was retrieved by the three strategies combined. Of these, 262 were judged relevant. Using one strategy alone would miss relevant records. The broad-based strategy had the highest recall and the thesaurus strategy the highest precision. Precision was generally poor: 96% of records initially identified as potentially relevant were deemed irrelevant. Searching for qualitative research involves trade-offs between recall and precision. Conclusions These findings confirm that strategies that attempt to maximise the number of potentially relevant records found are likely to result in a large number of false positives. The findings also suggest that a range of search terms is required to optimise searching for qualitative evidence. This underlines the problems of current methods for indexing qualitative research in bibliographic databases and indicates where improvements need to be made.

Accounting for derivatives:an evaluation of reporting practice by UK banks

In 1998 the Accounting Standards Board (ASB) published FRS 13, ‘Derivatives and other Financial Instruments: Disclosures’. This laid down the requirements for disclosures of an entity’s policies, objectives and strategies in using financial instruments, their impact on its risk, performance and financial condition, and details of how risks are managed. FRS 13 became effective in March 1999, and this paper uses the 1999 annual reports of UK banks to evaluate the usefulness of disclosures from a user’s perspective. Usefulness is measured in terms of the criteria of materiality, relevance, reliability, comparability and understandability as defined in the ASB’s Statement of Principles (ASB, 1999). Our findings suggest that the narrative disclosures are generic in nature, the numerical data incomplete and not always comparable, and that it is difficult for the user to combine both narrative and numerical information in order to assess the banks’ risk profile. Our overall conclusion is therefore that current UK financial reporting practices are of limited help to users wishing to assess the scale of an institution’s financial risk exposure.

Quantitative authorship attribution:an evaluation of techniques

The basic assumption of quantitative authorship attribution is that the author of a text can be selected from a set of possible authors by comparing the values of textual measurements in that text to their corresponding values in each possible author's writing sample. Over the past three centuries, many types of textual measurements have been proposed, but never before have the majority of these measurements been tested on the same dataset. A large-scale comparison of textual measurements is crucial if current techniques are to be used effectively and if new and more powerful techniques are to be developed. This article presents the results of a comparison of thirty-nine different types of textual measurements commonly used in attribution studies, in order to determine which are the best indicators of authorship. Based on the results of these tests, a more accurate approach to quantitative authorship attribution is proposed, which involves the analysis of many different textual measurements.

Towards the Problems of an Evaluation of Data Uncertainty in Decision Support Systems

The question of forming aim-oriented description of an object domain of decision support process is outlined. Two main problems of an estimation and evaluation of data and knowledge uncertainty in decision support systems – straight and reverse, are formulated. Three conditions being the formalized criteria of aimoriented constructing of input, internal and output spaces of some decision support system are proposed. Definitions of appeared and hidden data uncertainties on some measuring scale are given.

Redefining 'media' using a 'media-as-a-constitutional-component' concept:an evaluation of the need for the European Court of Human Rights to alter its understanding of 'media' within a new media landscape

This paper considers the impact of new media on freedom of expression and media freedom within the context of the European Convention on Human Rights and European Court of Human Rights jurisprudence. Through comparative analysis of US jurisprudence and scholarship, this paper deals with the following three issues. First, it explores the traditional purpose of the media, and how media freedom, as opposed to freedom of expression, has been subject to privileged protection, within an ECHR context at least. Secondly, it considers the emergence of new media, and how it can be differentiated from the traditional media. Finally, it analyses the philosophical justifications for freedom of expression, and how they enable a workable definition of the media based upon the concept of the media-as-a-constitutional-component.

Development and implementation of a tool to assess the micro/macro elements in an organization

This study examines the congruency of planning between organizational structure and process, through an evaluation and planning model known as the Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid. The model compares day-to-day planning within an organization to planning imposed by organizational administration and accrediting agencies. A survey instrument was developed to assess the micro and macro sociological analysis elements utilized by an organization.^ The Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid consists of four quadrants. Each quadrant contains characteristics that reflect the interaction between the micro and macro elements of planning, objectives and goals within an organization. The Over Macro/Over Micro, Quadrant 1, contains attributes that reflect a tremendous amount of action and ongoing adjustments, typical of an organization undergoing significant changes in either leadership, program and/or structure. Over Macro/Under Micro, Quadrant 2, reflects planning characteristics found in large, bureaucratic systems with little regard given to the workings of their component parts. Under Macro/Under Micro, Quadrant 3, reflects the uncooperative, uncoordinated organization, one that contains a multiplicity of viewpoints, language, objectives and goals. Under Macro/Under Micro, Quadrant 4 represents the worst case scenario for any organization. The attributes of this quadrant are very reactive, chaotic, non-productive and redundant.^ There were three phases to the study: development of the initial instrument, pilot testing the initial instrument and item revision, and administration and assessment of the refined instrument. The survey instrument was found to be valid and reliable for the purposes and audiences herein described.^ In order to expand the applicability of the instrument to other organizational settings, the survey was administered to three professional colleges within a university.^ The first three specific research questions collectively answered, in the affirmative, the basic research question: Can the Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid be applied to an organization through an organizational development tool? The first specific question: Can an instrument be constructed that applies the Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid? The second specific research question: Is the constructed instrument valid and reliable? The third specific research question: Does an instrument that applies the Micro/Macro Dynamic Planning Grid assess congruency of micro and macro planning, goals and objectives within an organization? The fourth specific research question: What are the differences in the responses based on roles and responsibilities within an organization? involved statistical analysis of the response data and comparisons obtained with the demographic data. (Abstract shortened by UMI.) ^