Asset health prediction using the explicit hazard model

The ability to estimate the asset reliability and the probability of failure is critical to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime, and safety hazards. Predicting the survival time and the probability of failure in future time is an indispensable requirement in prognostics and asset health management. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure event data, alone; however, statistically sufficient failure event data are often difficult to attain in real-life situations due to poor data management, effective preventive maintenance, and the small population of identical assets in use. Condition indicators and operating environment indicators are two types of covariate data that are normally obtained in addition to failure event and suspended data. These data contain significant information about the state and health of an asset. Condition indicators reflect the level of degradation of assets while operating environment indicators accelerate or decelerate the lifetime of assets. When these data are available, an alternative approach to the traditional reliability analysis is the modelling of condition indicators and operating environment indicators and their failure-generating mechanisms using a covariate-based hazard model. The literature review indicates that a number of covariate-based hazard models have been developed. All of these existing covariate-based hazard models were developed based on the principle theory of the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). However, most of these models have not attracted much attention in the field of machinery prognostics. Moreover, due to the prominence of PHM, attempts at developing alternative models, to some extent, have been stifled, although a number of alternative models to PHM have been suggested. The existing covariate-based hazard models neglect to fully utilise three types of asset health information (including failure event data (i.e. observed and/or suspended), condition data, and operating environment data) into a model to have more effective hazard and reliability predictions. In addition, current research shows that condition indicators and operating environment indicators have different characteristics and they are non-homogeneous covariate data. Condition indicators act as response variables (or dependent variables) whereas operating environment indicators act as explanatory variables (or independent variables). However, these non-homogenous covariate data were modelled in the same way for hazard prediction in the existing covariate-based hazard models. The related and yet more imperative question is how both of these indicators should be effectively modelled and integrated into the covariate-based hazard model. This work presents a new approach for addressing the aforementioned challenges. The new covariate-based hazard model, which termed as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM), explicitly and effectively incorporates all three available asset health information into the modelling of hazard and reliability predictions and also drives the relationship between actual asset health and condition measurements as well as operating environment measurements. The theoretical development of the model and its parameter estimation method are demonstrated in this work. EHM assumes that the baseline hazard is a function of the both time and condition indicators. Condition indicators provide information about the health condition of an asset; therefore they update and reform the baseline hazard of EHM according to the health state of asset at given time t. Some examples of condition indicators are the vibration of rotating machinery, the level of metal particles in engine oil analysis, and wear in a component, to name but a few. Operating environment indicators in this model are failure accelerators and/or decelerators that are included in the covariate function of EHM and may increase or decrease the value of the hazard from the baseline hazard. These indicators caused by the environment in which an asset operates, and that have not been explicitly identified by the condition indicators (e.g. Loads, environmental stresses, and other dynamically changing environment factors). While the effects of operating environment indicators could be nought in EHM; condition indicators could emerge because these indicators are observed and measured as long as an asset is operational and survived. EHM has several advantages over the existing covariate-based hazard models. One is this model utilises three different sources of asset health data (i.e. population characteristics, condition indicators, and operating environment indicators) to effectively predict hazard and reliability. Another is that EHM explicitly investigates the relationship between condition and operating environment indicators associated with the hazard of an asset. Furthermore, the proportionality assumption, which most of the covariate-based hazard models suffer from it, does not exist in EHM. According to the sample size of failure/suspension times, EHM is extended into two forms: semi-parametric and non-parametric. The semi-parametric EHM assumes a specified lifetime distribution (i.e. Weibull distribution) in the form of the baseline hazard. However, for more industry applications, due to sparse failure event data of assets, the analysis of such data often involves complex distributional shapes about which little is known. Therefore, to avoid the restrictive assumption of the semi-parametric EHM about assuming a specified lifetime distribution for failure event histories, the non-parametric EHM, which is a distribution free model, has been developed. The development of EHM into two forms is another merit of the model. A case study was conducted using laboratory experiment data to validate the practicality of the both semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs. The performance of the newly-developed models is appraised using the comparison amongst the estimated results of these models and the other existing covariate-based hazard models. The comparison results demonstrated that both the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs outperform the existing covariate-based hazard models. Future research directions regarding to the new parameter estimation method in the case of time-dependent effects of covariates and missing data, application of EHM in both repairable and non-repairable systems using field data, and a decision support model in which linked to the estimated reliability results, are also identified.

Molecular and structural requirements of the ß1L-adrenoceptor

Noradrenaline which occurs naturally in the body binds to beta-adrenoceptors on the heart, causing the heart to beat faster and with greater force in response to increased demand. This enables the heart to provide oxygenated blood to vital organs. Prolonged overstimulation by noradrenaline can be harmful to the heart and lead to the progression of heart disease. In these circumstances beta-adrenoceptors are blocked with drugs called beta-blockers. Beta-blockers block the effects of noradrenaline by binding to the same site on the beta-adrenoceptor. Some beta-blockers such as CGP12177 can also cause increases in heart rate. Therefore it was proposed that CGP12177 could bind in a different place to noradrenaline. The aim of this study was to determine where CGP12177 binds to on the beta-adrenoceptor. The results have revealed a separate binding site named beta-1-low. These results may lead to the development of improved -blockers for the management of heart conditions.

Comprehensive evaluation of DNA barcoding for the molecular species identification of forensically important Australian Sarcophagidae (Diptera)

Carrion-breeding Sarcophagidae (Diptera) can be used to estimate the post-mortem interval (PMI) in forensic cases. Difficulties with accurate morphological identifications at any life stage and a lack of documented thermobiological profiles have limited their current usefulness of these flies. The molecular-based approach of DNA barcoding, which utilises a 648-bp fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I gene, was previously evaluated in a pilot study for the discrimination between 16 Australian sarcophagids. The current study comprehensively evaluated DNA barcoding on a larger taxon set of 588 adult Australian sarcophagids. A total of 39 of the 84 known Australian species were represented by 580 specimens, which includes 92% of potentially forensically important species. A further eight specimens could not be reliably identified, but included as six unidentifable taxa. A neighbour-joining phylogenetic tree was generated and nucleotide sequence divergences were calculated using the Kimura-two-parameter distance model. All species except Sarcophaga (Fergusonimyia) bancroftorum, known for high morphological variability, were resolved as reciprocally monophyletic (99.2% of cases), with most having bootstrap support of 100. Excluding S. bancroftorum, the mean intraspecific and interspecific variation ranged from 0.00-1.12% and 2.81-11.23%, respectively, allowing for species discrimination. DNA barcoding was therefore validated as a suitable method for the molecular identification of the Australian Sarcophagidae, which will aid in the implementation of this fauna in forensic entomology.

Role of resting metabolic rate and energy expenditure in hunger and appetite control : a new formulation

A long-running issue in appetite research concerns the influence of energy expenditure on energy intake. More than 50 years ago, Otto G. Edholm proposed that "the differences between the intakes of food [of individuals] must originate in differences in the expenditure of energy". However, a relationship between energy expenditure and energy intake within any one day could not be found, although there was a correlation over 2 weeks. This issue was never resolved before interest in integrative biology was replaced by molecular biochemistry. Using a psychobiological approach, we have studied appetite control in an energy balance framework using a multi-level experimental system on a single cohort of overweight and obese human subjects. This has disclosed relationships between variables in the domains of body composition [fat-free mass (FFM), fat mass (FM)], metabolism, gastrointestinal hormones, hunger and energy intake. In this Commentary, we review our own and other data, and discuss a new formulation whereby appetite control and energy intake are regulated by energy expenditure. Specifically, we propose that FFM (the largest contributor to resting metabolic rate), but not body mass index or FM, is closely associated with self-determined meal size and daily energy intake. This formulation has implications for understanding weight regulation and the management of obesity.

Exponential asymptotics of free surface flow due to a line source

The steady problem of free surface flow due to a submerged line source is revisited for the case in which the fluid depth is finite and there is a stagnation point on the free surface directly above the source. Both the strength of the source and the fluid speed in the far field are measured by a dimensionless parameter, the Froude number. By applying techniques in exponential asymptotics, it is shown that there is a train of periodic waves on the surface of the fluid with an amplitude which is exponentially small in the limit that the Froude number vanishes. This study clarifies that periodic waves do form for flows due to a source, contrary to a suggestion by Chapman & Vanden-Broeck (2006, J. Fluid Mech., 567, 299--326). The exponentially small nature of the waves means they appear beyond all orders of the original power series expansion; this result explains why attempts at describing these flows using a finite number of terms in an algebraic power series incorrectly predict a flat free surface in the far field.

A review of the Ustilago-Sporisorium-Macalpinomyces complex

The fungal genera Ustilago, Sporisorium and Macalpinomyces represent an unresolved complex. Taxa within the complex often possess characters that occur in more than one genus, creating uncertainty for species placement. Previous studies have indicated that the genera cannot be separated by morphology alone. Here we chronologically review the history of the Ustilago-Sporisorium-Macalpinomyces complex, argue for its resolution and suggest methods to accomplish a stable taxonomy. A combined molecular and morphological approach is required to identify synapomorphic characters that underpin a new classification. Ustilago, Sporisorium and Macalpinomyces require explicit re-description and new genera, based on monophyletic groups, are needed to accommodate taxa that no longer fit the emended descriptions. A resolved classification will end the taxonomic confusion that surrounds generic placement of these smut fungi.

Assessment of the molecular structure of the borate mineral sakhaite Ca12Mg4(BO3)7(CO3)4Cl(OH)2·H2O using vibrational spectroscopy

The structure of the borate mineral sakhaite Ca12Mg4(BO3)7(CO3)4Cl(OH)2·H2O, a borate–carbonate of calcium and magnesium has been assessed using vibrational spectroscopy. Assignment of bands is undertaken by comparison with the data from other published results. Intense Raman band at 1134 cm−1 with a shoulder at 1123 cm−1 is assigned to the symmetric stretching mode. The Raman spectrum displays bands at 1479, 1524 and 1560 cm−1 which are assigned to the antisymmetric stretching vibrations. The observation of multiple carbonate stretching bands supports the concept that the carbonate units are non-equivalent. The Raman band at 968 cm−1 with a shoulder at 950 cm−1 is assigned to the symmetric stretching mode of trigonal boron. Raman bands at 627 and 651 cm−1 are assigned to the out-of-plane bending modes of trigonal and tetrahedral boron. Raman spectroscopy coupled with infrared spectroscopy enables the molecular structure of the mineral sakhaite to be assessed.

Assessment of the molecular structure of the borate mineral boracite Mg3B7O13Cl using vibrational spectroscopy

Boracite is a magnesium borate mineral with formula: Mg3B7O13Cl and occurs as blue green, colorless, gray, yellow to white crystals in the orthorhombic – pyramidal crystal system. An intense Raman band at 1009 cm−1 was assigned to the BO stretching vibration of the B7O13 units. Raman bands at 1121, 1136, 1143 cm−1 are attributed to the in-plane bending vibrations of trigonal boron. Four sharp Raman bands observed at 415, 494, 621 and 671 cm−1 are simply defined as trigonal and tetrahedral borate bending modes. The Raman spectrum clearly shows intense Raman bands at 3405 and 3494 cm−1, thus indicating that some Cl anions have been replaced with OH units. The molecular structure of a natural boracite has been assessed by using vibrational spectroscopy.

Continuum mechanics modelling of microfilament networks with different architectures based on molecular investigation of single F-actin

The actin microfilament plays a critical role in many cellular processes including embryonic development, wound healing, immune response, and tissue development. It is commonly organized in the form of networks whose mechanical properties change with changes in their architecture due to cell evolution processes. This paper presents a new nonlinear continuum mechanics model of single filamentous actin (F-actin) that is based on nanoscale molecular simulations. Following this continuum model of the single F-actin, mechanical properties of differently architected lamellipodia are studied. The results provide insight that can contribute to the understanding of the cell edge motions of living cells.

First-principles prediction of metal-free magnetism and intrinsic half-metallicity in graphitic carbon nitride

Transition metal-free magnetism and half-metallicity recently has been the subject of intense research activity due to its potential in spintronics application. Here we, for the first time, demonstrate via density functional theory that the most recently experimentally realized graphitic carbon nitride (g-C4N3) displays a ferromagnetic ground state. Furthermore, this novel material is predicted to possess an intrinsic half-metallicity never reported to date. Our results highlight a new promising material toward realistic metal-free spintronics application.

Representation of assertions in clinical free-­text using SNOMED CT

Information retrieval (IR) by clinicians in the healthcare setting is critical for informing clinical decision-making. However, a large part of this information is in the form of free-text and inhibits clinical decision support and effective healthcare services. This makes meaningful use of clinical free-­text in electronic health records (EHRs) for patient care a difficult task. Within the context of IR, given a repository of free-­text clinical reports, one might want to retrieve and analyse data for patients who have a known clinical finding.

Continuous and non-intrusive identity verification in real-time environments based on free-text keystroke dynamics

Internet services are important part of daily activities for most of us. These services come with sophisticated authentication requirements which may not be handled by average Internet users. The management of secure passwords for example creates an extra overhead which is often neglected due to usability reasons. Furthermore, password-based approaches are applicable only for initial logins and do not protect against unlocked workstation attacks. In this paper, we provide a non-intrusive identity verification scheme based on behavior biometrics where keystroke dynamics based-on free-text is used continuously for verifying the identity of a user in real-time. We improved existing keystroke dynamics based verification schemes in four aspects. First, we improve the scalability where we use a constant number of users instead of whole user space to verify the identity of target user. Second, we provide an adaptive user model which enables our solution to take the change of user behavior into consideration in verification decision. Next, we identify a new distance measure which enables us to verify identity of a user with shorter text. Fourth, we decrease the number of false results. Our solution is evaluated on a data set which we have collected from users while they were interacting with their mail-boxes during their daily activities.

Likelihood‐free inference for transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens

This chapter contains sections titled: Introduction Case study: Estimating transmission rates of nosocomial pathogens Models and methods Data analysis and results Discussion References

Free-surface flow past arbitrary topography and an inverse approach for wave-free solutions

An efficient numerical method to compute nonlinear solutions for two-dimensional steady free-surface flow over an arbitrary channel bottom topography is presented. The approach is based on a boundary integral equation technique which is similar to that of Vanden-Broeck's (1996, J. Fluid Mech., 330, 339-347). The typical approach for this problem is to prescribe the shape of the channel bottom topography, with the free-surface being provided as part of the solution. Here we take an inverse approach and prescribe the shape of the free-surface a priori while solving for the corresponding bottom topography. We show how this inverse approach is particularly useful when studying topographies that give rise to wave-free solutions, allowing us to easily classify eleven basic flow types. Finally, the inverse approach is also adapted to calculate a distribution of pressure on the free-surface, given the free-surface shape itself.

A vibrational spectroscopic study of philipsbornite PbAl3(AsO4)2(OH)5⋅H2O-molecular structural implications and relationship to the crandallite subgroup arsenates

The presence of arsenic in the environment is a hazard. The accumulation of arsenate by a range of cations in the formation of minerals provides a mechanism for the remediation of arsenate contamination. The formation of the crandallite group of minerals provides a mechanism for arsenate accumulation. Among the crandallite minerals are philipsbornite, arsenocrandallite and arsenogoyazite. Raman spectroscopy complimented with infrared spectroscopy has enabled aspects of the structure of philipsbornite to be studied. The Raman spectrum of philipsbornite displays an intense band at around 840 cm−1 attributed to the overlap of the symmetric and antisymmetric stretching modes. Raman bands observed at 325, 336, 347, 357, 376 and 399 cm−1 are assigned to the ν2 (AsO4)3− symmetric bending vibration (E) and to the ν4 bending vibration (F2). The observation of multiple bending modes supports the concept of a reduction in symmetry of the arsenate anion in philipsbornite. Evidence for phosphate in the mineral is provided. By using an empirical formula, hydrogen bond distances for the OH units in philipsbornite of 2.8648 Å, 2.7864 Å, 2.6896 Å cm−1 and 2.6220 were calculated.