Volatility forecasting for risk management

Recent research has suggested that forecast evaluation on the basis of standard statistical loss functions could prefer models which are sub-optimal when used in a practical setting. This paper explores a number of statistical models for predicting the daily volatility of several key UK financial time series. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of various linear and GARCH-type models of volatility are compared with forecasts derived from a multivariate approach. The forecasts are evaluated using traditional metrics, such as mean squared error, and also by how adequately they perform in a modern risk management setting. We find that the relative accuracies of the various methods are highly sensitive to the measure used to evaluate them. Such results have implications for any econometric time series forecasts which are subsequently employed in financial decisionmaking.

Non-normal real estate return distributions by property type in the U.K.

Investment risk models with infinite variance provide a better description of distributions of individual property returns in the IPD database over the period 1981 to 2003 than Normally distributed risk models, which mirrors results in the U.S. and Australia using identical methodology. Real estate investment risk is heteroscedastic, but the Characteristic Exponent of the investment risk function is constant across time yet may vary by property type. Asset diversification is far less effective at reducing the impact of non-systematic investment risk on real estate portfolios than in the case of assets with Normally distributed investment risk. Multi-risk factor portfolio allocation models based on measures of investment codependence from finite-variance statistics are ineffectual in the real estate context.

The return due to diversification of real estate to the US mixed-asset portfolio

Booth and Fama (1992) observe that the compound return and so the terminal wealth of a portfolio is greater than the weighted average of the compound returns of the individual investments, a difference referred to as the return due to diversification (RDD). Thus assets that offer high RDD should be particularly attractive investments. This paper test the proposition that US direct real estate is such an asset class using annual data over the period 1951-2001. The results show that adding real estate to an existing mixed-asset portfolio increases the compound return and so the terminal wealth of the fund. However, the results are dependent on the percentage allocation to real estate and the asset class replaced.

Return of the 'Angry Woman': authenticating female physical action in contemporary cinema

In 1999, Elizabeth Hills pointed up the challenges that physically active women on film still posed, in cultural terms, and in relation to certain branches of feminist theory . Since then, a remarkable number of emphatically active female heroes have appeared on screen, from 'Charlie’s Angels' to 'Resident Evil', 'Aeon Flux', and the 'Matrix' and 'X-Men' trilogies. Nevertheless, in a contemporary Western culture frequently characterised as postfeminist, these seem to be the ‘acceptable face’ – and body – of female empowerment: predominantly white, heterosexual, often scantily clad, with the traditional hero’s toughness and resolve re-imagined in terms of gender-biased notions of decorum: grace and dignity alongside perfect hair and make-up, and a body that does not display unsightly markers of physical exertion. The homogeneity of these representations is worth investigating in relation to critical claims that valorise such air-brushed, high-kicking 'action babes' for their combination of sexiness and strength, and the feminist and postfeminist discourses that are refracted through such readings. Indeed, this arguably ‘safe’ set of depictions, dovetailing so neatly with certain postfeminist notions of ‘having it all’, suppresses particular kinds of spectacles in relation to the active female body: images of physical stress and extension, biological consequences of violence and dangerous motivations are all absent. I argue that the untidy female exertions refused in popular “action babe” representations are now erupting into view in a number of other contemporaneous movies – 'Kill Bill' Vols 1 & 2, 'Monster', and 'Hard Candy' – that mark the return of that which is repressed in the mainstream vision of female power – that is, a more viscerally realistic physicality, rage and aggression. As such, these films engage directly with the issue of how to represent violent female agency. This chapter explores what is at stake at a representational level and in terms of spectatorial processes of identification in the return of this particularly visceral rendering of the female avenger.

A simplified pricing model for volatility futures

We develop a general model to price VIX futures contracts. The model is adapted to test both the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) and the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross formulations, with and without jumps. Empirical tests on VIX futures prices provide out-of-sample estimates within 2% of the actual futures price for almost all futures maturities. We show that although jumps are present in the data, the models with jumps do not typically outperform the others; in particular, we demonstrate the important benefits of the CEV feature in pricing futures contracts. We conclude by examining errors in the model relative to the VIX characteristics

Persistence of volatility in futures markets

This article examines the characteristics of key measures of volatility for different types of futures contracts to provide a better foundation for modeling volatility behavior and derivative values. Particular attention is focused on analyzing how different measures of volatility affect volatility persistence relationships. Intraday realized measures of volatility are found to be more persistent than daily measures, the type of GARCH procedure used for conditional volatility analysis is critical, and realized volatility persistence is not coherent with conditional volatility persistence. Specifically, although there is a good fit between the realized and conditional volatilities, no coherence exists between their degrees of persistence, a counterintuitive finding that shows realized and conditional volatility measures are not a substitute for one another

Is ESG commitment linked to investment performance in the real estate sector?

The linkage between corporate commitment to environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues and investment performance has generated a substantial body of research outside the real estate sector. Nevertheless, the relationship between the environmental performance and financial performance of companies is still not well understood as studies have found mixed and contradicting results. Drawing upon the KLD database which contains ratings on seven ESG dimensions from 2003-2009, this paper investigates the relationship between the ESG rating and the financial performance of a sample of US real estate firms. Since the primary transmission channel from ESG activities to financial performance may be better reflected by a firm's intangible assets, we model both Tobin's q and the total annual return in a panel framework with time and sector specific fixed effects. Our results are largely consistent with the existing literature finding a positive relationship between CFP and CSP. Further, the time scale of the lagged effects seems plausible.