Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation

Vintage-based vector autoregressive models of a single macroeconomic variable are shown to be a useful vehicle for obtaining forecasts of different maturities of future and past observations, including estimates of post-revision values. The forecasting performance of models which include information on annual revisions is superior to that of models which only include the first two data releases. However, the empirical results indicate that a model which reflects the seasonal nature of data releases more closely does not offer much improvement over an unrestricted vintage-based model which includes three rounds of annual revisions.

Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change

Increasing cereal yield is needed to meet the projected increased demand for world food supply of about 70% by 2050. Sirius, a process-based model for wheat, was used to estimate yield potential for wheat ideotypes optimized for future climatic projections (HadCM3 global climate model) for ten wheat growing areas of Europe. It was predicted that the detrimental effect of drought stress on yield would be decreased due to enhanced tailoring of phenology to future weather patterns, and due to genetic improvements in the response of photosynthesis and green leaf duration to water shortage. Yield advances could be made through extending maturation and thereby improve resource capture and partitioning. However the model predicted an increase in frequency of heat stress at meiosis and anthesis. Controlled environment experiments quantify the effects of heat and drought at booting and flowering on grain numbers and potential grain size. A current adaptation of wheat to areas of Europe with hotter and drier summers is a quicker maturation which helps to escape from excessive stress, but results in lower yields. To increase yield potential and to respond to climate change, increased tolerance to heat and drought stress should remain priorities for the genetic improvement of wheat.

Enhanced Australian carbon sink despite increased wildfire during the 21st century

Climate projections show Australia becoming significantly warmer during the 21st century, and precipitation decreasing over much of the continent. Such changes are conventionally considered to increase wildfire risk. Nevertheless, we show that burnt area increases in southern Australia, but decreases in northern Australia. Overall the projected increase in fire is small (0.72–1.31% of land area, depending on the climate scenario used), and does not cause a decrease in carbon storage. In fact, carbon storage increases by 3.7–5.6 Pg C (depending on the climate scenario used). Using a process-based model of vegetation dynamics, vegetation–fire interactions and carbon cycling, we show increased fire promotes a shift to more fire-adapted trees in wooded areas and their encroachment into grasslands, with an overall increase in forested area of 3.9–11.9%. Both changes increase carbon uptake and storage. The increase in woody vegetation increases the amount of coarse litter, which decays more slowly than fine litter hence leading to a relative reduction in overall heterotrophic respiration, further reducing carbon losses. Direct CO2 effects increase woody cover, water-use efficiency and productivity, such that carbon storage is increased by 8.5–14.8 Pg C compared to simulations in which CO2 is held constant at modern values. CO2 effects tend to increase burnt area, fire fluxes and therefore carbon losses in arid areas, but increase vegetation density and reduce burnt area in wooded areas.

Long term individual load forecast under different electrical vehicles uptake scenarios

More and more households are purchasing electric vehicles (EVs), and this will continue as we move towards a low carbon future. There are various projections as to the rate of EV uptake, but all predict an increase over the next ten years. Charging these EVs will produce one of the biggest loads on the low voltage network. To manage the network, we must not only take into account the number of EVs taken up, but where on the network they are charging, and at what time. To simulate the impact on the network from high, medium and low EV uptake (as outlined by the UK government), we present an agent-based model. We initialise the model to assign an EV to a household based on either random distribution or social influences - that is, a neighbour of an EV owner is more likely to also purchase an EV. Additionally, we examine the effect of peak behaviour on the network when charging is at day-time, night-time, or a mix of both. The model is implemented on a neighbourhood in south-east England using smart meter data (half hourly electricity readings) and real life charging patterns from an EV trial. Our results indicate that social influence can increase the peak demand on a local level (street or feeder), meaning that medium EV uptake can create higher peak demand than currently expected.

The response of northern hemisphere extratropical climate and vegetation to orbitally-induced changes in insolation during the last interglaciation

The last interglaciation (substage 5e) provides an opportunity to examine the effects of extreme orbital changes on regional climates. We have made two atmospheric general circulation model experiments: P+T+ approximated the northern hemisphere seasonality maximum near the beginning of 5e; P-T- approximated the minimum near the end of 5e. Simulated regional climate changes have been translated into biome changes using a physiologically based model of global vegetation types. Major climatic and vegetational changes were simulated for the northern hemisphere extratropics, due to radiational effects that were both amplified and modified by atmospheric circulation changes and sea-ice feedback. P+T+ showed mid-continental summers up to 8°C warmer than present. Mid-latitude winters were 2-4°C cooler than present but in the Arctic, summer warmth reduced sea-ice extent and thickness, producing winters 2-8°C warmer than present. The tundra and taiga biomes were displaced poleward, while warm-summer steppes expanded in the mid latitudes due to drought. P-T- showed summers up to 5°C cooler than present, especially in mid latitudes. Sea ice and snowpack were thicker and lasted longer; polar desert, tundra, and taiga biomes were displaced equatorward, while cool-summer steppes and semideserts expanded due to the cooling. A slight winter warming in mid latitudes, however, caused warm-temperate evergreen forests and scrub to expand poleward. Such qualitative contrasts in the direction of climate and vegetation change during 5e should be identifiable in the paleorecord

Engineering a plant community to deliver multiple ecosystem services

The sustainable delivery of multiple ecosystem services requires the management of functionally diverse biological communities. In an agricultural context, an emphasis on food production has often led to a loss of biodiversity to the detriment of other ecosystem services such as the maintenance of soil health and pest regulation. In scenarios where multiple species can be grown together, it may be possible to better balance environmental and agronomic services through the targeted selection of companion species. We used the case study of legume-based cover crops to engineer a plant community that delivered the optimal balance of six ecosystem services: early productivity, regrowth following mowing, weed suppression, support of invertebrates, soil fertility building (measured as yield of following crop), and conservation of nutrients in the soil. An experimental species pool of 12 cultivated legume species was screened for a range of functional traits and ecosystem services at five sites across a geographical gradient in the United Kingdom. All possible species combinations were then analyzed, using a process-based model of plant competition, to identify the community that delivered the best balance of services at each site. In our system, low to intermediate levels of species richness (one to four species) that exploited functional contrasts in growth habit and phenology were identified as being optimal. The optimal solution was determined largely by the number of species and functional diversity represented by the starting species pool, emphasizing the importance of the initial selection of species for the screening experiments. The approach of using relationships between functional traits and ecosystem services to design multifunctional biological communities has the potential to inform the design of agricultural systems that better balance agronomic and environmental services and meet the current objective of European agricultural policy to maintain viable food production in the context of the sustainable management of natural resources.

Soil phosphorus dynamics and phytoavailability from sewage sludge at different stages in a treatment stream

The effect of different stages of sewage sludge treatment on phosphorus (P) dynamics in amended soils was determined using samples of undigested liquid (UL), anaerobically digested liquid (AD) and dewatered anaerobically digested (DC) sludge. Sludges were taken from three points in the same treatment stream and applied to a sandy loam soil in field-based mesocosms at 4, 8 and 16t ha−1 dry solids. Mesocosms were sown with perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne cv. Melle), and the sward was harvested after 35 and 70 days to determine yield and foliar P concentration. Soils were also sampled during this period to measure P transformations and the activities of acid phosphomonoesterase and phosphodiesterase. Data show that the AD amended soils had the greatest plant-available and foliar P content up to the second harvest, but the UL amended soils had the greatest enzyme activity. Characterisation of control and 16t ha−1 soils and sludge using solution 31P nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy after NaOH–EDTA extraction revealed that P was predominantly in the inorganic pool in all three sludge samples, with the highest proportion (of the total extracted P) as inorganic P in the anaerobically digested liquid sludge. After sludge incorporation, P was immobilised to organic species. The majority of organic P was in monoester-P forms, while the remainder of organic P (diester P and phosphonate P) was more susceptible to transformations through time and showed variation with sludge type. These results show that application of sewage sludge at rates as low as 4t ha−1 can have a significant nutritional benefit to ryegrass over an initial 35-day growth and subsequent 35-day re-growth periods. Differences in P transformation, and hence nutritional benefit, between sludge types were evident throughout the experiment. Thus, differences in sludge treatment process alter the edaphic mineralisation characteristics of biosolids derived from the same source material.

Nitrogen dynamics under Lolium perenne after a single application of different sewage sludge types from the same treatment stream

Three sludge types from the same treatment stream (undigested liquid, anaerobically digested liquid and dewatered, anaerobically digested cake) were used in a field based tub study. Amendments (4, 8, and 16 Mg dry solid (ds)ha(-1)) were incorporated into the upper 15 cm of a sandy loam soil prior to sowing with rye-grass (Lolium perenne L.). Nitrogen transformations in the soil were determined for the 80 d period following incorporation. Nitrogen uptake and crop yield were measured in the cut sward 35 and 70 d after sowing. The study showed that application of sewage sludge at rates as low as 4 Mgha(-1) can have a nutritional benefit to rye-grass over the two harvests. Differences in N transformation, and hence crop nutritional benefit, between sludge types were evident throughout the experiment. In particular, the dewatering process changed the mineral N characteristics of the anaerobically digested sludge, which, when not dewatered, outperformed the other sludges in terms of yield and mineralisation rate at both harvests. The dewatered sludge produced the lowest yield of rye-grass. The undigested liquid sludge had the lowest foliar N and soil NO(3)-N concentrations, possibly immobilised as the large oxidisable C component of this sludge was metabolised by the microbial biomass. Correlation data support the concept of preferential uptake of NH(4)-N over NO(3)-N in Lolium perenne. Results are discussed in the context of managing sludge type and application for a plant nutrient source and NO(3)-N release.

In the mood: the dynamics of collective sentiments on Twitter

We study the relationship between the sentiment levels of Twitter users and the evolving network structure that the users created by @-mentioning each other. We use a large dataset of tweets to which we apply three sentiment scoring algorithms, including the open source SentiStrength program. Specifically we make three contributions. Firstly we find that people who have potentially the largest communication reach (according to a dynamic centrality measure) use sentiment differently than the average user: for example they use positive sentiment more often and negative sentiment less often. Secondly we find that when we follow structurally stable Twitter communities over a period of months, their sentiment levels are also stable, and sudden changes in community sentiment from one day to the next can in most cases be traced to external events affecting the community. Thirdly, based on our findings, we create and calibrate a simple agent-based model that is capable of reproducing measures of emotive response comparable to those obtained from our empirical dataset.

Fragmentation drives tropical forest fragments to early successional states: A modelling study for Brazilian Atlantic forests

Land use leads to massive habitat destruction and fragmentation in tropical forests. Despite its global dimensions the effects of fragmentation on ecosystem dynamics are not well understood due to the complexity of the problem. We present a simulation analysis performed by the individual-based model FORMIND. The model was applied to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the world`s biodiversity hot spots, at the Plateau of Sao Paulo. This study investigates the long-term effects of fragmentation processes on structure and dynamics of different sized remnant tropical forest fragments (1-100 ha) at community and plant functional type (PFT) level. We disentangle the interplay of single effects of different key fragmentation processes (edge mortality, increased mortality of large trees, local seed loss and external seed rain) using simulation experiments in a full factorial design. Our analysis reveals that particularly small forest fragments below 25 ha suffer substantial structural changes, biomass and biodiversity loss in the long term. At community level biomass is reduced up to 60%. Two thirds of the mid- and late-successional species groups, especially shade-tolerant (late successional climax) species groups are prone of extinction in small fragments. The shade-tolerant species groups were most strongly affected; its tree number was reduced more than 60% mainly by increased edge mortality. This process proved to be the most powerful of those investigated, explaining alone more than 80% of the changes observed for this group. External seed rain was able to compensate approximately 30% of the observed fragmentation effects for shade-tolerant species. Our results suggest that tropical forest fragments will suffer strong structural changes in the long term, leading to tree species impoverishment. They may reach a new equilibrium with a substantially reduced subset of the initial species pool, and are driven towards an earlier successional state. The natural regeneration potential of a landscape scattered with forest fragments appears to be limited, as external seed rain is not able to fully compensate for the observed fragmentation-induced changes. Our findings suggest basic recommendations for the management of fragmented tropical forest landscapes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A GUI for online presentation of steel and steelmaking ladle temperature data and simulation.

Continuous casting is a casting process that produces steel slabs in a continuous manner with steel being poured at the top of the caster and a steel strand emerging from the mould below. Molten steel is transferred from the AOD converter to the caster using a ladle. The ladle is designed to be strong and insulated. Complete insulation is never achieved. Some of the heat is lost to the refractories by convection and conduction. Heat losses by radiation also occur. It is important to know the temperature of the melt during the process. For this reason, an online model was previously developed to simulate the steel and ladle wall temperatures during the ladle cycle. The model was developed as an ODE based model using grey box modeling technique. The model’s performance was acceptable and needed to be presented in a user friendly way. The aim of this thesis work was basically to design a GUI that presents steel and ladle wall temperatures calculated by the model and also allow the user to make adjustments to the model. This thesis work also discusses the sensitivity analysis of different parameters involved and their effects on different temperature estimations.

Modeling precipitation and its effect on recrystallization during hot strip rolling of niobium steels

Using a physically based model, the microstructural evolution of Nb microalloyed steels during rolling in SSAB Tunnplåt’s hot strip mill was modeled. The model describes the evolution of dislocation density, the creation and diffusion of vacancies, dynamic and static recovery through climb and glide, subgrain formation and growth, dynamic and static recrystallization and grain growth. Also, the model describes the dissolution and precipitation of particles. The impeding effect on grain growth and recrystallization due to solute drag and particles is accounted for. During hot strip rolling of Nb steels, Nb in solid solution retards recrystallization due to solute drag and at lower temperatures strain-induced precipitation of Nb(C,N) may occur which effectively retard recrystallization. The flow stress behavior during hot rolling was calculated where the mean flow stress values were calculated using both the model and measured mill data. The model showed that solute drag has an essential effect on recrystallization during hot rolling of Nb steels.

Utmaningen från andra berättelser : En studie om moraliskt omdöme, utvidgat tänkande och kritiskt reflekterande berättelser i dialogbaserad feministisk etik

The present study has a threefold aim: First, the theoretical aim is to give a contribution to refinement of the theory of dialogue based feminist ethics, concerning the understanding of judgment and narration within such an ethics.  The study also has an empirical aim, defined as to clarify what kind of knowledge, relevant to the moral judgment of an engaged outsider actor, can be received from dialogical interpretation and analysis of a limited selection of critically reflecting life stories. Third, a methodological aim is defined as to develop an approach to interpretation and analysis of reflecting life stories, which renders the storyteller visible as a reflecting moral subject, and makes the story accessible as a source of knowledge for the moral judgment of an engaged outsider actor. The thesis combines philosophical reflection and argumentation, with a narrative-hermeneutic method for interpretation of life stories, relating the two to each other in a hermeneutic process.  The theoretical reflection draws on Seyla Benhabibs theory of communicative ethics. A dialogue based model for moral justification and a likewise dialogue based model for political legitimacy are at the heart of this universalistic theory, although in combination with a conception of a narratively and hermeneutically constituted context sensitive moral judgment, based on Hannah Arendt’s concept “enlarged thought”. In the reflection, this model is related to other feminist theorizing within the tradition of dialogue based feminist ethics, as found in the works of Iris M. Young, Georgia Warnke and Shari Stone-Mediatore. The empirical study draws on three critically reflecting life stories from Israeli-Palestinian women activists for a just peace. The methodology for interpretation and analysis that is worked out combines dialogical interpretation as presented in Arthur W. Frank’s socio-narratology with a method for structural analysis derived from Shari Stone-Mediatores theory of storytelling as an expression of political resistance struggle. The results show that some stories drawing on marginalized experiences have a potential­ to stimulate further public debate through their capacity to enable a stereoscopic seeing, elucidating a tension between ideologically structured discourse and non-linguistic experience; implying that narrative-hermeneutic competence should be considered crucial for public debate.  

Principles of High Quality Documentation for Provenance: A Philosophical Discussion

Computer technology enables the creation of detailed documentation about the processes that create or affect entities (data, objects, etc.). Such documentation of the past can be used to answer various kinds of questions regarding the processes that led to the creation or modification of a particular entity. The answer to such questions is known as an entity's provenance. In this paper, we derive a number of principles for documenting the past, grounded in work from philosophy and history, which allow for provenance questions to be answered within a computational context. These principles lead us to argue that an interaction-based model is particularly suited for representing high quality documentation of the past.

Técnicas de avaliação da confiabilidade em estruturas de concreto armado

Neste trabalho é dado ênfase à inclusão das incertezas na avaliação do comportamento estrutural, objetivando uma melhor representação das características do sistema e uma quantificação do significado destas incertezas no projeto. São feitas comparações entre as técnicas clássicas existentes de análise de confiabilidade, tais como FORM, Simulação Direta Monte Carlo (MC) e Simulação Monte Carlo com Amostragem por Importância Adaptativa (MCIS), e os métodos aproximados da Superfície de Resposta( RS) e de Redes Neurais Artificiais(ANN). Quando possível, as comparações são feitas salientando- se as vantagens e inconvenientes do uso de uma ou de outra técnica em problemas com complexidades crescentes. São analisadas desde formulações com funções de estado limite explícitas até formulações implícitas com variabilidade espacial de carregamento e propriedades dos materiais, incluindo campos estocásticos. É tratado, em especial, o problema da análise da confiabilidade de estruturas de concreto armado incluindo o efeito da variabilidade espacial de suas propriedades. Para tanto é proposto um modelo de elementos finitos para a representação do concreto armado que incorpora as principais características observadas neste material. Também foi desenvolvido um modelo para a geração de campos estocásticos multidimensionais não Gaussianos para as propriedades do material e que é independente da malha de elementos finitos, assim como implementadas técnicas para aceleração das avaliações estruturais presentes em qualquer das técnicas empregadas. Para o tratamento da confiabilidade através da técnica da Superfície de Resposta, o algoritmo desenvolvido por Rajashekhar et al(1993) foi implementado. Já para o tratamento através de Redes Neurais Artificias, foram desenvolvidos alguns códigos para a simulação de redes percéptron multicamada e redes com função de base radial e então implementados no algoritmo de avaliação de confiabilidade desenvolvido por Shao et al(1997). Em geral, observou-se que as técnicas de simulação tem desempenho bastante baixo em problemas mais complexos, sobressaindo-se a técnica de primeira ordem FORM e as técnicas aproximadas da Superfície de Resposta e de Redes Neurais Artificiais, embora com precisão prejudicada devido às aproximações presentes.